LEAVE the Conservative Party and save your country!
Comments
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No but surely the Govt should be tackling the problemrick_chasey said:
Conversely if you solve C19 tomorrow the economy won’t just pick up where it left off.surrey_commuter said:
My problem is that I see the economy failing due to C19 disruption. To take an extreme example if you gave everybody £1k it would not solve the C19 problem.rick_chasey said:It is unfortunate Tories have to reach back in time for their ideas, but I guess with the current crop you wouldn’t want them coming up with new ideas.
FDR was basically a highly centralising leader who’s cornerstone policies were all shaped by the depression and are broadly various forms of Keynesian stimulus type programmes.
So SC - this will not please you.
I have yet to see the U.K. really step ahead of the pack re stimulus and in fact they are behind places like Germany who brought a bazooka to the party (though arguably they can better afford said bazooka).
How this tallies with Gove’s Brexit agenda I can’t work out, so if anyone has any great ideas, let us know.0 -
Absolute madness, do they really think people will change their spending plans because VAT is slashed 2.5%.rjsterry said:
I've seen various rumours of VAT rate cuts in the UK. The argument seemed to be that it was not perfect, but was one of the few things that could be easily switched off and on again as required.Stevo_666 said:The VAT rate cut in Germany is part of the package, but I'm sure Rick is fine with that.
There's a separate argument on the madness that is the VAT rules on construction.0 -
VAT is an odd one. Whenever it is proposed to lower it people say it won't make a difference to spending but if someone proposes raising it by the same amount the same people seem to say it will be a disaster to the economy.0
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A time limited reduction will bring spending forward. How much, who knows? Depends on how people feel about the virus, probably.0
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A decent rule of thumb re stimulus is that it needs to amount to the size of the recession, roughly.
So if there's a 9% drop in GDP, the state needs to spend that equivalent.
As SC points out, it's not that linear however as if you don't have the virus under control you can easily end up not being able to deploy that stuff in the most effective way and you don't really solve the cause.
0 -
Building stuff is such a dumb solution to this recession that you have to wonder whether fiscal expansion is just a figleaf for a man child who likes big infrastructure projectsrick_chasey said:A decent rule of thumb re stimulus is that it needs to amount to the size of the recession, roughly.
So if there's a 9% drop in GDP, the state needs to spend that equivalent.
As SC points out, it's not that linear however as if you don't have the virus under control you can easily end up not being able to deploy that stuff in the most effective way and you don't really solve the cause.0 -
Gove is absolutely not immune to white elephants.surrey_commuter said:
Building stuff is such a dumb solution to this recession that you have to wonder whether fiscal expansion is just a figleaf for a man child who likes big infrastructure projectsrick_chasey said:A decent rule of thumb re stimulus is that it needs to amount to the size of the recession, roughly.
So if there's a 9% drop in GDP, the state needs to spend that equivalent.
As SC points out, it's not that linear however as if you don't have the virus under control you can easily end up not being able to deploy that stuff in the most effective way and you don't really solve the cause.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2011/11/25/michael-gove-puts-bible-every-school_n_1113099.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAB79927KwknflQX7vS435duBtz-zZRJkP9mxsFPCe89SMULJ022echd-7JwETjVEEW6h0z1qwPMMJuFJejnmcJRDWioYWkkHrdfmVsjQCeQ0aQrPmsch0pqFN4QzoX0D9rra97SqUjgaQ-mtePoQoXXD-6VhXrJP-9DZKDjD5v-2
(all the books got pulped)
Not sure I agree with your analysis tbh.
Gigantic investment into the infrastructure high speed broadband for the whole of the UK, both 5g and piped into people's homes is absolutely not a waste of time.
0 -
My point is that building stuff over the next ten years will not get us out of the current predicament. It gets back to your only tool is a hammer so every problem looks like a nail.rick_chasey said:
Gove is absolutely not immune to white elephants.surrey_commuter said:
Building stuff is such a dumb solution to this recession that you have to wonder whether fiscal expansion is just a figleaf for a man child who likes big infrastructure projectsrick_chasey said:A decent rule of thumb re stimulus is that it needs to amount to the size of the recession, roughly.
So if there's a 9% drop in GDP, the state needs to spend that equivalent.
As SC points out, it's not that linear however as if you don't have the virus under control you can easily end up not being able to deploy that stuff in the most effective way and you don't really solve the cause.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2011/11/25/michael-gove-puts-bible-every-school_n_1113099.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAB79927KwknflQX7vS435duBtz-zZRJkP9mxsFPCe89SMULJ022echd-7JwETjVEEW6h0z1qwPMMJuFJejnmcJRDWioYWkkHrdfmVsjQCeQ0aQrPmsch0pqFN4QzoX0D9rra97SqUjgaQ-mtePoQoXXD-6VhXrJP-9DZKDjD5v-2
(all the books got pulped)
Not sure I agree with your analysis tbh.
Gigantic investment into the infrastructure high speed broadband for the whole of the UK, both 5g and piped into people's homes is absolutely not a waste of time.
We all know why the economy is tanking and it is not because VAT is too high. Imagine if you were holding off buying a new £5k bike because you were worried about family finances or the one you want is not in stock. Woohoo Boris is taking 2.5% off VAT so you are going to save £125 is that really going to tip you over the edge?
Agree on the broadband (I would incentivise the market) but it does not make for a good photo opp so you are going to have to make do with a trainline.
Your belief in the power of the state to drive the economy does not seem to allow for the fact that politicians tend to make bad, incompetent or self-serving decisions1 -
Yeah I tend to agree re-vat. I also tend to agree with the state making good or bad decisions. However, in a depression the private market is not doing what is required to improve the economy, which is spend, so the gov't has to step in.surrey_commuter said:
My point is that building stuff over the next ten years will not get us out of the current predicament. It gets back to your only tool is a hammer so every problem looks like a nail.rick_chasey said:
Gove is absolutely not immune to white elephants.surrey_commuter said:
Building stuff is such a dumb solution to this recession that you have to wonder whether fiscal expansion is just a figleaf for a man child who likes big infrastructure projectsrick_chasey said:A decent rule of thumb re stimulus is that it needs to amount to the size of the recession, roughly.
So if there's a 9% drop in GDP, the state needs to spend that equivalent.
As SC points out, it's not that linear however as if you don't have the virus under control you can easily end up not being able to deploy that stuff in the most effective way and you don't really solve the cause.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2011/11/25/michael-gove-puts-bible-every-school_n_1113099.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAB79927KwknflQX7vS435duBtz-zZRJkP9mxsFPCe89SMULJ022echd-7JwETjVEEW6h0z1qwPMMJuFJejnmcJRDWioYWkkHrdfmVsjQCeQ0aQrPmsch0pqFN4QzoX0D9rra97SqUjgaQ-mtePoQoXXD-6VhXrJP-9DZKDjD5v-2
(all the books got pulped)
Not sure I agree with your analysis tbh.
Gigantic investment into the infrastructure high speed broadband for the whole of the UK, both 5g and piped into people's homes is absolutely not a waste of time.
We all know why the economy is tanking and it is not because VAT is too high. Imagine if you were holding off buying a new £5k bike because you were worried about family finances or the one you want is not in stock. Woohoo Boris is taking 2.5% off VAT so you are going to save £125 is that really going to tip you over the edge?
Agree on the broadband (I would incentivise the market) but it does not make for a good photo opp so you are going to have to make do with a trainline.
Your belief in the power of the state to drive the economy does not seem to allow for the fact that politicians tend to make bad, incompetent or self-serving decisions
The gov't has certain natural advantages in a depression; primarily it can borrow and service the debt much more cheaply than the private sector, and in a period of depression, that is a material advantage.
They are uniquely placed to help boost otherwise sinking economies, and so any spending is better than no spending - that is the priority. Where it is spent is of secondary importance. Important, but the priority is just spending.0 -
no matter the cause of the recession?rick_chasey said:
Yeah I tend to agree re-vat. I also tend to agree with the state making good or bad decisions. However, in a depression the private market is not doing what is required to improve the economy, which is spend, so the gov't has to step in.surrey_commuter said:
My point is that building stuff over the next ten years will not get us out of the current predicament. It gets back to your only tool is a hammer so every problem looks like a nail.rick_chasey said:
Gove is absolutely not immune to white elephants.surrey_commuter said:
Building stuff is such a dumb solution to this recession that you have to wonder whether fiscal expansion is just a figleaf for a man child who likes big infrastructure projectsrick_chasey said:A decent rule of thumb re stimulus is that it needs to amount to the size of the recession, roughly.
So if there's a 9% drop in GDP, the state needs to spend that equivalent.
As SC points out, it's not that linear however as if you don't have the virus under control you can easily end up not being able to deploy that stuff in the most effective way and you don't really solve the cause.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2011/11/25/michael-gove-puts-bible-every-school_n_1113099.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAB79927KwknflQX7vS435duBtz-zZRJkP9mxsFPCe89SMULJ022echd-7JwETjVEEW6h0z1qwPMMJuFJejnmcJRDWioYWkkHrdfmVsjQCeQ0aQrPmsch0pqFN4QzoX0D9rra97SqUjgaQ-mtePoQoXXD-6VhXrJP-9DZKDjD5v-2
(all the books got pulped)
Not sure I agree with your analysis tbh.
Gigantic investment into the infrastructure high speed broadband for the whole of the UK, both 5g and piped into people's homes is absolutely not a waste of time.
We all know why the economy is tanking and it is not because VAT is too high. Imagine if you were holding off buying a new £5k bike because you were worried about family finances or the one you want is not in stock. Woohoo Boris is taking 2.5% off VAT so you are going to save £125 is that really going to tip you over the edge?
Agree on the broadband (I would incentivise the market) but it does not make for a good photo opp so you are going to have to make do with a trainline.
Your belief in the power of the state to drive the economy does not seem to allow for the fact that politicians tend to make bad, incompetent or self-serving decisions
The gov't has certain natural advantages in a depression; primarily it can borrow and service the debt much more cheaply than the private sector, and in a period of depression, that is a material advantage.
They are uniquely placed to help boost otherwise sinking economies, and so any spending is better than no spending - that is the priority. Where it is spent is of secondary importance. Important, but the priority is just spending.0 -
Yeah. Of course solving the cause is of primary importance but that doesn’t solve a depression.surrey_commuter said:
no matter the cause of the recession?rick_chasey said:
Yeah I tend to agree re-vat. I also tend to agree with the state making good or bad decisions. However, in a depression the private market is not doing what is required to improve the economy, which is spend, so the gov't has to step in.surrey_commuter said:
My point is that building stuff over the next ten years will not get us out of the current predicament. It gets back to your only tool is a hammer so every problem looks like a nail.rick_chasey said:
Gove is absolutely not immune to white elephants.surrey_commuter said:
Building stuff is such a dumb solution to this recession that you have to wonder whether fiscal expansion is just a figleaf for a man child who likes big infrastructure projectsrick_chasey said:A decent rule of thumb re stimulus is that it needs to amount to the size of the recession, roughly.
So if there's a 9% drop in GDP, the state needs to spend that equivalent.
As SC points out, it's not that linear however as if you don't have the virus under control you can easily end up not being able to deploy that stuff in the most effective way and you don't really solve the cause.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2011/11/25/michael-gove-puts-bible-every-school_n_1113099.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAB79927KwknflQX7vS435duBtz-zZRJkP9mxsFPCe89SMULJ022echd-7JwETjVEEW6h0z1qwPMMJuFJejnmcJRDWioYWkkHrdfmVsjQCeQ0aQrPmsch0pqFN4QzoX0D9rra97SqUjgaQ-mtePoQoXXD-6VhXrJP-9DZKDjD5v-2
(all the books got pulped)
Not sure I agree with your analysis tbh.
Gigantic investment into the infrastructure high speed broadband for the whole of the UK, both 5g and piped into people's homes is absolutely not a waste of time.
We all know why the economy is tanking and it is not because VAT is too high. Imagine if you were holding off buying a new £5k bike because you were worried about family finances or the one you want is not in stock. Woohoo Boris is taking 2.5% off VAT so you are going to save £125 is that really going to tip you over the edge?
Agree on the broadband (I would incentivise the market) but it does not make for a good photo opp so you are going to have to make do with a trainline.
Your belief in the power of the state to drive the economy does not seem to allow for the fact that politicians tend to make bad, incompetent or self-serving decisions
The gov't has certain natural advantages in a depression; primarily it can borrow and service the debt much more cheaply than the private sector, and in a period of depression, that is a material advantage.
They are uniquely placed to help boost otherwise sinking economies, and so any spending is better than no spending - that is the priority. Where it is spent is of secondary importance. Important, but the priority is just spending.
If covid disappeared tomorrow we would still be in the throes of a global depression.0 -
what problem are you solving by committing to decades long building programs?rick_chasey said:
Yeah. Of course solving the cause is of primary importance but that doesn’t solve a depression.surrey_commuter said:
no matter the cause of the recession?rick_chasey said:
Yeah I tend to agree re-vat. I also tend to agree with the state making good or bad decisions. However, in a depression the private market is not doing what is required to improve the economy, which is spend, so the gov't has to step in.surrey_commuter said:
My point is that building stuff over the next ten years will not get us out of the current predicament. It gets back to your only tool is a hammer so every problem looks like a nail.rick_chasey said:
Gove is absolutely not immune to white elephants.surrey_commuter said:
Building stuff is such a dumb solution to this recession that you have to wonder whether fiscal expansion is just a figleaf for a man child who likes big infrastructure projectsrick_chasey said:A decent rule of thumb re stimulus is that it needs to amount to the size of the recession, roughly.
So if there's a 9% drop in GDP, the state needs to spend that equivalent.
As SC points out, it's not that linear however as if you don't have the virus under control you can easily end up not being able to deploy that stuff in the most effective way and you don't really solve the cause.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2011/11/25/michael-gove-puts-bible-every-school_n_1113099.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAB79927KwknflQX7vS435duBtz-zZRJkP9mxsFPCe89SMULJ022echd-7JwETjVEEW6h0z1qwPMMJuFJejnmcJRDWioYWkkHrdfmVsjQCeQ0aQrPmsch0pqFN4QzoX0D9rra97SqUjgaQ-mtePoQoXXD-6VhXrJP-9DZKDjD5v-2
(all the books got pulped)
Not sure I agree with your analysis tbh.
Gigantic investment into the infrastructure high speed broadband for the whole of the UK, both 5g and piped into people's homes is absolutely not a waste of time.
We all know why the economy is tanking and it is not because VAT is too high. Imagine if you were holding off buying a new £5k bike because you were worried about family finances or the one you want is not in stock. Woohoo Boris is taking 2.5% off VAT so you are going to save £125 is that really going to tip you over the edge?
Agree on the broadband (I would incentivise the market) but it does not make for a good photo opp so you are going to have to make do with a trainline.
Your belief in the power of the state to drive the economy does not seem to allow for the fact that politicians tend to make bad, incompetent or self-serving decisions
The gov't has certain natural advantages in a depression; primarily it can borrow and service the debt much more cheaply than the private sector, and in a period of depression, that is a material advantage.
They are uniquely placed to help boost otherwise sinking economies, and so any spending is better than no spending - that is the priority. Where it is spent is of secondary importance. Important, but the priority is just spending.
If covid disappeared tomorrow we would still be in the throes of a global depression.0 -
Keeping people employed. People earning (hopefully) have greater disposable income. Spending disposable income keeps the economy going.surrey_commuter said:
what problem are you solving by committing to decades long building programs?rick_chasey said:
Yeah. Of course solving the cause is of primary importance but that doesn’t solve a depression.surrey_commuter said:
no matter the cause of the recession?rick_chasey said:
Yeah I tend to agree re-vat. I also tend to agree with the state making good or bad decisions. However, in a depression the private market is not doing what is required to improve the economy, which is spend, so the gov't has to step in.surrey_commuter said:
My point is that building stuff over the next ten years will not get us out of the current predicament. It gets back to your only tool is a hammer so every problem looks like a nail.rick_chasey said:
Gove is absolutely not immune to white elephants.surrey_commuter said:
Building stuff is such a dumb solution to this recession that you have to wonder whether fiscal expansion is just a figleaf for a man child who likes big infrastructure projectsrick_chasey said:A decent rule of thumb re stimulus is that it needs to amount to the size of the recession, roughly.
So if there's a 9% drop in GDP, the state needs to spend that equivalent.
As SC points out, it's not that linear however as if you don't have the virus under control you can easily end up not being able to deploy that stuff in the most effective way and you don't really solve the cause.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2011/11/25/michael-gove-puts-bible-every-school_n_1113099.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAB79927KwknflQX7vS435duBtz-zZRJkP9mxsFPCe89SMULJ022echd-7JwETjVEEW6h0z1qwPMMJuFJejnmcJRDWioYWkkHrdfmVsjQCeQ0aQrPmsch0pqFN4QzoX0D9rra97SqUjgaQ-mtePoQoXXD-6VhXrJP-9DZKDjD5v-2
(all the books got pulped)
Not sure I agree with your analysis tbh.
Gigantic investment into the infrastructure high speed broadband for the whole of the UK, both 5g and piped into people's homes is absolutely not a waste of time.
We all know why the economy is tanking and it is not because VAT is too high. Imagine if you were holding off buying a new £5k bike because you were worried about family finances or the one you want is not in stock. Woohoo Boris is taking 2.5% off VAT so you are going to save £125 is that really going to tip you over the edge?
Agree on the broadband (I would incentivise the market) but it does not make for a good photo opp so you are going to have to make do with a trainline.
Your belief in the power of the state to drive the economy does not seem to allow for the fact that politicians tend to make bad, incompetent or self-serving decisions
The gov't has certain natural advantages in a depression; primarily it can borrow and service the debt much more cheaply than the private sector, and in a period of depression, that is a material advantage.
They are uniquely placed to help boost otherwise sinking economies, and so any spending is better than no spending - that is the priority. Where it is spent is of secondary importance. Important, but the priority is just spending.
If covid disappeared tomorrow we would still be in the throes of a global depression.
The alternative is just bad news.The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Depressions are primarily aggregate demand issues. There are obviously supply side challenges too.surrey_commuter said:
what problem are you solving by committing to decades long building programs?
So, in an ideal world, your massive state spending compensates for the drop in private spending to keep aggregate demand up, and they address some of the supply side restrictions (e.g. broadband).
Supply side growth is a longer term issue, and aggregate demand a short term one.
So those decade long building programmes hopefully address both. But you would ideally want to front load the spending, if possible.
0 -
I'm sure it's not that simple, but possibly simpler than some of the other alternatives. On construction VAT, well that's just the bit I interact with most.Stevo_666 said:
TBH it sounds simple but it causes quite a few practical issues to implement including changing every system/device in the country that generates invoices etc, the price of millions of products that are VAT-inclusive - twice in this case as its temporary. A German tax advisor I spoke to last week said it was a real pain.rjsterry said:
I've seen various rumours of VAT rate cuts in the UK. The argument seemed to be that it was not perfect, but was one of the few things that could be easily switched off and on again as required.Stevo_666 said:The VAT rate cut in Germany is part of the package, but I'm sure Rick is fine with that.
There's a separate argument on the madness that is the VAT rules on construction.
On your other pont, why confine yourself to such a small section of tax law? There's pushing 20,000 pages of the stuff these days IIRC. Shouldn't grumble I suppose
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
how does building a railway line ten years from now keep people employed today, tomorrow and next year. In good years you will still be funnelling tens of billions into the trainlinepblakeney said:
Keeping people employed. People earning (hopefully) have greater disposable income. Spending disposable income keeps the economy going.surrey_commuter said:
what problem are you solving by committing to decades long building programs?rick_chasey said:
Yeah. Of course solving the cause is of primary importance but that doesn’t solve a depression.surrey_commuter said:
no matter the cause of the recession?rick_chasey said:
Yeah I tend to agree re-vat. I also tend to agree with the state making good or bad decisions. However, in a depression the private market is not doing what is required to improve the economy, which is spend, so the gov't has to step in.surrey_commuter said:
My point is that building stuff over the next ten years will not get us out of the current predicament. It gets back to your only tool is a hammer so every problem looks like a nail.rick_chasey said:
Gove is absolutely not immune to white elephants.surrey_commuter said:
Building stuff is such a dumb solution to this recession that you have to wonder whether fiscal expansion is just a figleaf for a man child who likes big infrastructure projectsrick_chasey said:A decent rule of thumb re stimulus is that it needs to amount to the size of the recession, roughly.
So if there's a 9% drop in GDP, the state needs to spend that equivalent.
As SC points out, it's not that linear however as if you don't have the virus under control you can easily end up not being able to deploy that stuff in the most effective way and you don't really solve the cause.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2011/11/25/michael-gove-puts-bible-every-school_n_1113099.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAB79927KwknflQX7vS435duBtz-zZRJkP9mxsFPCe89SMULJ022echd-7JwETjVEEW6h0z1qwPMMJuFJejnmcJRDWioYWkkHrdfmVsjQCeQ0aQrPmsch0pqFN4QzoX0D9rra97SqUjgaQ-mtePoQoXXD-6VhXrJP-9DZKDjD5v-2
(all the books got pulped)
Not sure I agree with your analysis tbh.
Gigantic investment into the infrastructure high speed broadband for the whole of the UK, both 5g and piped into people's homes is absolutely not a waste of time.
We all know why the economy is tanking and it is not because VAT is too high. Imagine if you were holding off buying a new £5k bike because you were worried about family finances or the one you want is not in stock. Woohoo Boris is taking 2.5% off VAT so you are going to save £125 is that really going to tip you over the edge?
Agree on the broadband (I would incentivise the market) but it does not make for a good photo opp so you are going to have to make do with a trainline.
Your belief in the power of the state to drive the economy does not seem to allow for the fact that politicians tend to make bad, incompetent or self-serving decisions
The gov't has certain natural advantages in a depression; primarily it can borrow and service the debt much more cheaply than the private sector, and in a period of depression, that is a material advantage.
They are uniquely placed to help boost otherwise sinking economies, and so any spending is better than no spending - that is the priority. Where it is spent is of secondary importance. Important, but the priority is just spending.
If covid disappeared tomorrow we would still be in the throes of a global depression.
The alternative is just bad news.0 -
we are talking about the current recession or in generalrick_chasey said:
Depressions are primarily aggregate demand issues. There are obviously supply side challenges too.surrey_commuter said:
what problem are you solving by committing to decades long building programs?
So, in an ideal world, your massive state spending compensates for the drop in private spending to keep aggregate demand up, and they address some of the supply side restrictions (e.g. broadband).
Supply side growth is a longer term issue, and aggregate demand a short term one.
So those decade long building programmes hopefully address both. But you would ideally want to front load the spending, if possible.0 -
Same thing for me; there's a better way to deal with a recession and a worse way, regardless of cause.surrey_commuter said:
we are talking about the current recession or in generalrick_chasey said:
Depressions are primarily aggregate demand issues. There are obviously supply side challenges too.surrey_commuter said:
what problem are you solving by committing to decades long building programs?
So, in an ideal world, your massive state spending compensates for the drop in private spending to keep aggregate demand up, and they address some of the supply side restrictions (e.g. broadband).
Supply side growth is a longer term issue, and aggregate demand a short term one.
So those decade long building programmes hopefully address both. But you would ideally want to front load the spending, if possible.0 -
What's wrong with construction VAT? Same as all VAT isn't it?rjsterry said:
I'm sure it's not that simple, but possibly simpler than some of the other alternatives. On construction VAT, well that's just the bit I interact with most.Stevo_666 said:
TBH it sounds simple but it causes quite a few practical issues to implement including changing every system/device in the country that generates invoices etc, the price of millions of products that are VAT-inclusive - twice in this case as its temporary. A German tax advisor I spoke to last week said it was a real pain.rjsterry said:
I've seen various rumours of VAT rate cuts in the UK. The argument seemed to be that it was not perfect, but was one of the few things that could be easily switched off and on again as required.Stevo_666 said:The VAT rate cut in Germany is part of the package, but I'm sure Rick is fine with that.
There's a separate argument on the madness that is the VAT rules on construction.
On your other pont, why confine yourself to such a small section of tax law? There's pushing 20,000 pages of the stuff these days IIRC. Shouldn't grumble I suppose0 -
I really don't get that. All the below had a negative impact upon the Uk economy, do you really think the best policy in each instance was for the Govt to spend more money to make up for less consumer spending?rick_chasey said:
Same thing for me; there's a better way to deal with a recession and a worse way, regardless of cause.surrey_commuter said:
we are talking about the current recession or in generalrick_chasey said:
Depressions are primarily aggregate demand issues. There are obviously supply side challenges too.surrey_commuter said:
what problem are you solving by committing to decades long building programs?
So, in an ideal world, your massive state spending compensates for the drop in private spending to keep aggregate demand up, and they address some of the supply side restrictions (e.g. broadband).
Supply side growth is a longer term issue, and aggregate demand a short term one.
So those decade long building programmes hopefully address both. But you would ideally want to front load the spending, if possible.
Oil price shock
GFC
Covid 19
Run up to Brexit referendum (ie short-term)
Post Brexit referendum0 -
I wasn't being specific. Ideally you'd want the work to start ASAP but big projects don't kick off immediately.surrey_commuter said:
how does building a railway line ten years from now keep people employed today, tomorrow and next year. In good years you will still be funnelling tens of billions into the trainlinepblakeney said:
Keeping people employed. People earning (hopefully) have greater disposable income. Spending disposable income keeps the economy going.surrey_commuter said:
what problem are you solving by committing to decades long building programs?rick_chasey said:
Yeah. Of course solving the cause is of primary importance but that doesn’t solve a depression.surrey_commuter said:
no matter the cause of the recession?rick_chasey said:
Yeah I tend to agree re-vat. I also tend to agree with the state making good or bad decisions. However, in a depression the private market is not doing what is required to improve the economy, which is spend, so the gov't has to step in.surrey_commuter said:
My point is that building stuff over the next ten years will not get us out of the current predicament. It gets back to your only tool is a hammer so every problem looks like a nail.rick_chasey said:
Gove is absolutely not immune to white elephants.surrey_commuter said:
Building stuff is such a dumb solution to this recession that you have to wonder whether fiscal expansion is just a figleaf for a man child who likes big infrastructure projectsrick_chasey said:A decent rule of thumb re stimulus is that it needs to amount to the size of the recession, roughly.
So if there's a 9% drop in GDP, the state needs to spend that equivalent.
As SC points out, it's not that linear however as if you don't have the virus under control you can easily end up not being able to deploy that stuff in the most effective way and you don't really solve the cause.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2011/11/25/michael-gove-puts-bible-every-school_n_1113099.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAB79927KwknflQX7vS435duBtz-zZRJkP9mxsFPCe89SMULJ022echd-7JwETjVEEW6h0z1qwPMMJuFJejnmcJRDWioYWkkHrdfmVsjQCeQ0aQrPmsch0pqFN4QzoX0D9rra97SqUjgaQ-mtePoQoXXD-6VhXrJP-9DZKDjD5v-2
(all the books got pulped)
Not sure I agree with your analysis tbh.
Gigantic investment into the infrastructure high speed broadband for the whole of the UK, both 5g and piped into people's homes is absolutely not a waste of time.
We all know why the economy is tanking and it is not because VAT is too high. Imagine if you were holding off buying a new £5k bike because you were worried about family finances or the one you want is not in stock. Woohoo Boris is taking 2.5% off VAT so you are going to save £125 is that really going to tip you over the edge?
Agree on the broadband (I would incentivise the market) but it does not make for a good photo opp so you are going to have to make do with a trainline.
Your belief in the power of the state to drive the economy does not seem to allow for the fact that politicians tend to make bad, incompetent or self-serving decisions
The gov't has certain natural advantages in a depression; primarily it can borrow and service the debt much more cheaply than the private sector, and in a period of depression, that is a material advantage.
They are uniquely placed to help boost otherwise sinking economies, and so any spending is better than no spending - that is the priority. Where it is spent is of secondary importance. Important, but the priority is just spending.
If covid disappeared tomorrow we would still be in the throes of a global depression.
The alternative is just bad news.
The alternative is unemployment as the private sector is hunkering down. Unemployment stifles spending and the economy goes downhill. There is no easy solution. I doubt we will even return to where we were 6 months ago. Businesses and lives have been changed irrevocably.The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Taking HS2 as an example, there's already plenty of money and people employed in Civil Engineering consultancies working on it, even if there aren't many boots on the ground building it yet.surrey_commuter said:
how does building a railway line ten years from now keep people employed today, tomorrow and next year. In good years you will still be funnelling tens of billions into the trainlinepblakeney said:
Keeping people employed. People earning (hopefully) have greater disposable income. Spending disposable income keeps the economy going.surrey_commuter said:
what problem are you solving by committing to decades long building programs?rick_chasey said:
Yeah. Of course solving the cause is of primary importance but that doesn’t solve a depression.surrey_commuter said:
no matter the cause of the recession?rick_chasey said:
Yeah I tend to agree re-vat. I also tend to agree with the state making good or bad decisions. However, in a depression the private market is not doing what is required to improve the economy, which is spend, so the gov't has to step in.surrey_commuter said:
My point is that building stuff over the next ten years will not get us out of the current predicament. It gets back to your only tool is a hammer so every problem looks like a nail.rick_chasey said:
Gove is absolutely not immune to white elephants.surrey_commuter said:
Building stuff is such a dumb solution to this recession that you have to wonder whether fiscal expansion is just a figleaf for a man child who likes big infrastructure projectsrick_chasey said:A decent rule of thumb re stimulus is that it needs to amount to the size of the recession, roughly.
So if there's a 9% drop in GDP, the state needs to spend that equivalent.
As SC points out, it's not that linear however as if you don't have the virus under control you can easily end up not being able to deploy that stuff in the most effective way and you don't really solve the cause.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2011/11/25/michael-gove-puts-bible-every-school_n_1113099.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAB79927KwknflQX7vS435duBtz-zZRJkP9mxsFPCe89SMULJ022echd-7JwETjVEEW6h0z1qwPMMJuFJejnmcJRDWioYWkkHrdfmVsjQCeQ0aQrPmsch0pqFN4QzoX0D9rra97SqUjgaQ-mtePoQoXXD-6VhXrJP-9DZKDjD5v-2
(all the books got pulped)
Not sure I agree with your analysis tbh.
Gigantic investment into the infrastructure high speed broadband for the whole of the UK, both 5g and piped into people's homes is absolutely not a waste of time.
We all know why the economy is tanking and it is not because VAT is too high. Imagine if you were holding off buying a new £5k bike because you were worried about family finances or the one you want is not in stock. Woohoo Boris is taking 2.5% off VAT so you are going to save £125 is that really going to tip you over the edge?
Agree on the broadband (I would incentivise the market) but it does not make for a good photo opp so you are going to have to make do with a trainline.
Your belief in the power of the state to drive the economy does not seem to allow for the fact that politicians tend to make bad, incompetent or self-serving decisions
The gov't has certain natural advantages in a depression; primarily it can borrow and service the debt much more cheaply than the private sector, and in a period of depression, that is a material advantage.
They are uniquely placed to help boost otherwise sinking economies, and so any spending is better than no spending - that is the priority. Where it is spent is of secondary importance. Important, but the priority is just spending.
If covid disappeared tomorrow we would still be in the throes of a global depression.
The alternative is just bad news.
The issue that you'll be continuing to spend well after the recession is over is more serious.
I'd be tempted to look at increasing the current spend to try and move the project along quicker.0 -
Yeah I think you need to separate cause and effect.surrey_commuter said:
I really don't get that. All the below had a negative impact upon the Uk economy, do you really think the best policy in each instance was for the Govt to spend more money to make up for less consumer spending?rick_chasey said:
Same thing for me; there's a better way to deal with a recession and a worse way, regardless of cause.surrey_commuter said:
we are talking about the current recession or in generalrick_chasey said:
Depressions are primarily aggregate demand issues. There are obviously supply side challenges too.surrey_commuter said:
what problem are you solving by committing to decades long building programs?
So, in an ideal world, your massive state spending compensates for the drop in private spending to keep aggregate demand up, and they address some of the supply side restrictions (e.g. broadband).
Supply side growth is a longer term issue, and aggregate demand a short term one.
So those decade long building programmes hopefully address both. But you would ideally want to front load the spending, if possible.
Oil price shock
GFC
Covid 19
Run up to Brexit referendum (ie short-term)
Post Brexit referendum
So regardless of what causes a recession or a depression, a recession and a depression is always the same thing: a contraction in aggregate spending.
The shock makes people and firms spend less, and that means in aggregate people are spending less, and so they earn less, and so they spend less etc. That cycle is always the same, regardless of the cause.
It is that cycle that stimulus attempts to break.
So yes, of course, in this instance you can't break that without solving the covid problem first, in the same way you had to stabilise the financial system before you could tackle the rest of the economic problems in the last recession.0 -
Not exactly. Refurbishment is 20%,but new build is 0%. This creates a huge incentive to knock down (or let a building fall into disrepair) and rebuild rather than adapting an existing building, which is incredibly wasteful. Change in the number of housing units (splitting a house into flats or vice versa) is 5%. Which also has some weird side effects.TheBigBean said:
What's wrong with construction VAT? Same as all VAT isn't it?rjsterry said:
I'm sure it's not that simple, but possibly simpler than some of the other alternatives. On construction VAT, well that's just the bit I interact with most.Stevo_666 said:
TBH it sounds simple but it causes quite a few practical issues to implement including changing every system/device in the country that generates invoices etc, the price of millions of products that are VAT-inclusive - twice in this case as its temporary. A German tax advisor I spoke to last week said it was a real pain.rjsterry said:
I've seen various rumours of VAT rate cuts in the UK. The argument seemed to be that it was not perfect, but was one of the few things that could be easily switched off and on again as required.Stevo_666 said:The VAT rate cut in Germany is part of the package, but I'm sure Rick is fine with that.
There's a separate argument on the madness that is the VAT rules on construction.
On your other pont, why confine yourself to such a small section of tax law? There's pushing 20,000 pages of the stuff these days IIRC. Shouldn't grumble I suppose1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
Residential construction is a bit different to non-residential then.rjsterry said:
Not exactly. Refurbishment is 20%,but new build is 0%. This creates a huge incentive to knock down (or let a building fall into disrepair) and rebuild rather than adapting an existing building, which is incredibly wasteful. Change in the number of housing units (splitting a house into flats or vice versa) is 5%. Which also has some weird side effects.TheBigBean said:
What's wrong with construction VAT? Same as all VAT isn't it?rjsterry said:
I'm sure it's not that simple, but possibly simpler than some of the other alternatives. On construction VAT, well that's just the bit I interact with most.Stevo_666 said:
TBH it sounds simple but it causes quite a few practical issues to implement including changing every system/device in the country that generates invoices etc, the price of millions of products that are VAT-inclusive - twice in this case as its temporary. A German tax advisor I spoke to last week said it was a real pain.rjsterry said:
I've seen various rumours of VAT rate cuts in the UK. The argument seemed to be that it was not perfect, but was one of the few things that could be easily switched off and on again as required.Stevo_666 said:The VAT rate cut in Germany is part of the package, but I'm sure Rick is fine with that.
There's a separate argument on the madness that is the VAT rules on construction.
On your other pont, why confine yourself to such a small section of tax law? There's pushing 20,000 pages of the stuff these days IIRC. Shouldn't grumble I suppose0 -
how about planning it in a way so that you could mothball it when economy was doing better?Jeremy.89 said:
Taking HS2 as an example, there's already plenty of money and people employed in Civil Engineering consultancies working on it, even if there aren't many boots on the ground building it yet.surrey_commuter said:
how does building a railway line ten years from now keep people employed today, tomorrow and next year. In good years you will still be funnelling tens of billions into the trainlinepblakeney said:
Keeping people employed. People earning (hopefully) have greater disposable income. Spending disposable income keeps the economy going.surrey_commuter said:
what problem are you solving by committing to decades long building programs?rick_chasey said:
Yeah. Of course solving the cause is of primary importance but that doesn’t solve a depression.surrey_commuter said:
no matter the cause of the recession?rick_chasey said:
Yeah I tend to agree re-vat. I also tend to agree with the state making good or bad decisions. However, in a depression the private market is not doing what is required to improve the economy, which is spend, so the gov't has to step in.surrey_commuter said:
My point is that building stuff over the next ten years will not get us out of the current predicament. It gets back to your only tool is a hammer so every problem looks like a nail.rick_chasey said:
Gove is absolutely not immune to white elephants.surrey_commuter said:
Building stuff is such a dumb solution to this recession that you have to wonder whether fiscal expansion is just a figleaf for a man child who likes big infrastructure projectsrick_chasey said:A decent rule of thumb re stimulus is that it needs to amount to the size of the recession, roughly.
So if there's a 9% drop in GDP, the state needs to spend that equivalent.
As SC points out, it's not that linear however as if you don't have the virus under control you can easily end up not being able to deploy that stuff in the most effective way and you don't really solve the cause.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2011/11/25/michael-gove-puts-bible-every-school_n_1113099.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAB79927KwknflQX7vS435duBtz-zZRJkP9mxsFPCe89SMULJ022echd-7JwETjVEEW6h0z1qwPMMJuFJejnmcJRDWioYWkkHrdfmVsjQCeQ0aQrPmsch0pqFN4QzoX0D9rra97SqUjgaQ-mtePoQoXXD-6VhXrJP-9DZKDjD5v-2
(all the books got pulped)
Not sure I agree with your analysis tbh.
Gigantic investment into the infrastructure high speed broadband for the whole of the UK, both 5g and piped into people's homes is absolutely not a waste of time.
We all know why the economy is tanking and it is not because VAT is too high. Imagine if you were holding off buying a new £5k bike because you were worried about family finances or the one you want is not in stock. Woohoo Boris is taking 2.5% off VAT so you are going to save £125 is that really going to tip you over the edge?
Agree on the broadband (I would incentivise the market) but it does not make for a good photo opp so you are going to have to make do with a trainline.
Your belief in the power of the state to drive the economy does not seem to allow for the fact that politicians tend to make bad, incompetent or self-serving decisions
The gov't has certain natural advantages in a depression; primarily it can borrow and service the debt much more cheaply than the private sector, and in a period of depression, that is a material advantage.
They are uniquely placed to help boost otherwise sinking economies, and so any spending is better than no spending - that is the priority. Where it is spent is of secondary importance. Important, but the priority is just spending.
If covid disappeared tomorrow we would still be in the throes of a global depression.
The alternative is just bad news.
The issue that you'll be continuing to spend well after the recession is over is more serious.
I'd be tempted to look at increasing the current spend to try and move the project along quicker.0 -
How else are you gonna improve aggregate supply, in all seriousness, without some form of infrastructure spending?surrey_commuter said:
how about planning it in a way so that you could mothball it when economy was doing better?Jeremy.89 said:
Taking HS2 as an example, there's already plenty of money and people employed in Civil Engineering consultancies working on it, even if there aren't many boots on the ground building it yet.surrey_commuter said:
how does building a railway line ten years from now keep people employed today, tomorrow and next year. In good years you will still be funnelling tens of billions into the trainlinepblakeney said:
Keeping people employed. People earning (hopefully) have greater disposable income. Spending disposable income keeps the economy going.surrey_commuter said:
what problem are you solving by committing to decades long building programs?rick_chasey said:
Yeah. Of course solving the cause is of primary importance but that doesn’t solve a depression.surrey_commuter said:
no matter the cause of the recession?rick_chasey said:
Yeah I tend to agree re-vat. I also tend to agree with the state making good or bad decisions. However, in a depression the private market is not doing what is required to improve the economy, which is spend, so the gov't has to step in.surrey_commuter said:
My point is that building stuff over the next ten years will not get us out of the current predicament. It gets back to your only tool is a hammer so every problem looks like a nail.rick_chasey said:
Gove is absolutely not immune to white elephants.surrey_commuter said:
Building stuff is such a dumb solution to this recession that you have to wonder whether fiscal expansion is just a figleaf for a man child who likes big infrastructure projectsrick_chasey said:A decent rule of thumb re stimulus is that it needs to amount to the size of the recession, roughly.
So if there's a 9% drop in GDP, the state needs to spend that equivalent.
As SC points out, it's not that linear however as if you don't have the virus under control you can easily end up not being able to deploy that stuff in the most effective way and you don't really solve the cause.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2011/11/25/michael-gove-puts-bible-every-school_n_1113099.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAB79927KwknflQX7vS435duBtz-zZRJkP9mxsFPCe89SMULJ022echd-7JwETjVEEW6h0z1qwPMMJuFJejnmcJRDWioYWkkHrdfmVsjQCeQ0aQrPmsch0pqFN4QzoX0D9rra97SqUjgaQ-mtePoQoXXD-6VhXrJP-9DZKDjD5v-2
(all the books got pulped)
Not sure I agree with your analysis tbh.
Gigantic investment into the infrastructure high speed broadband for the whole of the UK, both 5g and piped into people's homes is absolutely not a waste of time.
We all know why the economy is tanking and it is not because VAT is too high. Imagine if you were holding off buying a new £5k bike because you were worried about family finances or the one you want is not in stock. Woohoo Boris is taking 2.5% off VAT so you are going to save £125 is that really going to tip you over the edge?
Agree on the broadband (I would incentivise the market) but it does not make for a good photo opp so you are going to have to make do with a trainline.
Your belief in the power of the state to drive the economy does not seem to allow for the fact that politicians tend to make bad, incompetent or self-serving decisions
The gov't has certain natural advantages in a depression; primarily it can borrow and service the debt much more cheaply than the private sector, and in a period of depression, that is a material advantage.
They are uniquely placed to help boost otherwise sinking economies, and so any spending is better than no spending - that is the priority. Where it is spent is of secondary importance. Important, but the priority is just spending.
If covid disappeared tomorrow we would still be in the throes of a global depression.
The alternative is just bad news.
The issue that you'll be continuing to spend well after the recession is over is more serious.
I'd be tempted to look at increasing the current spend to try and move the project along quicker.
I don't necessarily believe for large parts of infrastructure that the private sector is best placed, as the incentives get all screwed up.0 -
There are other quirks, but the way the differing rates encourage people to neglect and demolish buildings rather than maintain them is the bit that bugs me.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
the issue of speed is a real world problem and has to have an impact on whether you think a govt can spend an economy out of recession.pblakeney said:
I wasn't being specific. Ideally you'd want the work to start ASAP but big projects don't kick off immediately.surrey_commuter said:
how does building a railway line ten years from now keep people employed today, tomorrow and next year. In good years you will still be funnelling tens of billions into the trainlinepblakeney said:
Keeping people employed. People earning (hopefully) have greater disposable income. Spending disposable income keeps the economy going.surrey_commuter said:
what problem are you solving by committing to decades long building programs?rick_chasey said:
Yeah. Of course solving the cause is of primary importance but that doesn’t solve a depression.surrey_commuter said:
no matter the cause of the recession?rick_chasey said:
Yeah I tend to agree re-vat. I also tend to agree with the state making good or bad decisions. However, in a depression the private market is not doing what is required to improve the economy, which is spend, so the gov't has to step in.surrey_commuter said:
My point is that building stuff over the next ten years will not get us out of the current predicament. It gets back to your only tool is a hammer so every problem looks like a nail.rick_chasey said:
Gove is absolutely not immune to white elephants.surrey_commuter said:
Building stuff is such a dumb solution to this recession that you have to wonder whether fiscal expansion is just a figleaf for a man child who likes big infrastructure projectsrick_chasey said:A decent rule of thumb re stimulus is that it needs to amount to the size of the recession, roughly.
So if there's a 9% drop in GDP, the state needs to spend that equivalent.
As SC points out, it's not that linear however as if you don't have the virus under control you can easily end up not being able to deploy that stuff in the most effective way and you don't really solve the cause.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2011/11/25/michael-gove-puts-bible-every-school_n_1113099.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAB79927KwknflQX7vS435duBtz-zZRJkP9mxsFPCe89SMULJ022echd-7JwETjVEEW6h0z1qwPMMJuFJejnmcJRDWioYWkkHrdfmVsjQCeQ0aQrPmsch0pqFN4QzoX0D9rra97SqUjgaQ-mtePoQoXXD-6VhXrJP-9DZKDjD5v-2
(all the books got pulped)
Not sure I agree with your analysis tbh.
Gigantic investment into the infrastructure high speed broadband for the whole of the UK, both 5g and piped into people's homes is absolutely not a waste of time.
We all know why the economy is tanking and it is not because VAT is too high. Imagine if you were holding off buying a new £5k bike because you were worried about family finances or the one you want is not in stock. Woohoo Boris is taking 2.5% off VAT so you are going to save £125 is that really going to tip you over the edge?
Agree on the broadband (I would incentivise the market) but it does not make for a good photo opp so you are going to have to make do with a trainline.
Your belief in the power of the state to drive the economy does not seem to allow for the fact that politicians tend to make bad, incompetent or self-serving decisions
The gov't has certain natural advantages in a depression; primarily it can borrow and service the debt much more cheaply than the private sector, and in a period of depression, that is a material advantage.
They are uniquely placed to help boost otherwise sinking economies, and so any spending is better than no spending - that is the priority. Where it is spent is of secondary importance. Important, but the priority is just spending.
If covid disappeared tomorrow we would still be in the throes of a global depression.
The alternative is just bad news.
The alternative is unemployment as the private sector is hunkering down. Unemployment stifles spending and the economy goes downhill. There is no easy solution. I doubt we will even return to where we were 6 months ago. Businesses and lives have been changed irrevocably.
Govt has increased spending over the last year to stop us falling into recession, do you think that is a good idea or as it would be a very minor recession just accept that it is an adjustment to the new post-Brexit normal?0 -
surely this time around the spending will come back anyway especially as the govt has tried to preserve businesses and jobs. In the meantime why launch infrastructure projects that will run for decades?rick_chasey said:
Yeah I think you need to separate cause and effect.surrey_commuter said:
I really don't get that. All the below had a negative impact upon the Uk economy, do you really think the best policy in each instance was for the Govt to spend more money to make up for less consumer spending?rick_chasey said:
Same thing for me; there's a better way to deal with a recession and a worse way, regardless of cause.surrey_commuter said:
we are talking about the current recession or in generalrick_chasey said:
Depressions are primarily aggregate demand issues. There are obviously supply side challenges too.surrey_commuter said:
what problem are you solving by committing to decades long building programs?
So, in an ideal world, your massive state spending compensates for the drop in private spending to keep aggregate demand up, and they address some of the supply side restrictions (e.g. broadband).
Supply side growth is a longer term issue, and aggregate demand a short term one.
So those decade long building programmes hopefully address both. But you would ideally want to front load the spending, if possible.
Oil price shock
GFC
Covid 19
Run up to Brexit referendum (ie short-term)
Post Brexit referendum
So regardless of what causes a recession or a depression, a recession and a depression is always the same thing: a contraction in aggregate spending.
The shock makes people and firms spend less, and that means in aggregate people are spending less, and so they earn less, and so they spend less etc. That cycle is always the same, regardless of the cause.
It is that cycle that stimulus attempts to break.
So yes, of course, in this instance you can't break that without solving the covid problem first, in the same way you had to stabilise the financial system before you could tackle the rest of the economic problems in the last recession.
looks to me like the cuckoo is hiding his reasons for wanting massive hikes in govt spending0
