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  • rolf_frolf_f Posts: 15,959
    Rory Stewart has now bailed from the Tory party; presumably he is following this thread......
    Faster than a tent.......
  • rjsterryrjsterry Posts: 17,471
    Rolf F wrote:
    Rory Stewart has now bailed from the Tory party; presumably he is following this thread......
    And running for London Mayor as an independent (well he wasn't going to just sit around, was he?) Already quite a crowded field but good luck to him. He seems to be good at connecting with people.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Liberal metropolitan, remoaner, traitor, "sympathiser", etc.
  • TheBigBeanTheBigBean Posts: 9,837
    rjsterry wrote:
    Rolf F wrote:
    Rory Stewart has now bailed from the Tory party; presumably he is following this thread......
    And running for London Mayor as an independent (well he wasn't going to just sit around, was he?) Already quite a crowded field but good luck to him. He seems to be good at connecting with people.

    It puzzles me a bit when he is an MP for Cumbria. Quite a change that. Still, having had a quick look at the competition, not much appeals.
  • rjsterryrjsterry Posts: 17,471
    TheBigBean wrote:
    rjsterry wrote:
    Rolf F wrote:
    Rory Stewart has now bailed from the Tory party; presumably he is following this thread......
    And running for London Mayor as an independent (well he wasn't going to just sit around, was he?) Already quite a crowded field but good luck to him. He seems to be good at connecting with people.

    It puzzles me a bit when he is an MP for Cumbria. Quite a change that. Still, having had a quick look at the competition, not much appeals.

    I think Penrith was always a stepping stone to something bigger. Now that route has been cut off, his ambition needs another
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Liberal metropolitan, remoaner, traitor, "sympathiser", etc.
  • TheBigBeanTheBigBean Posts: 9,837
    rjsterry wrote:
    TheBigBean wrote:
    rjsterry wrote:
    Rolf F wrote:
    Rory Stewart has now bailed from the Tory party; presumably he is following this thread......
    And running for London Mayor as an independent (well he wasn't going to just sit around, was he?) Already quite a crowded field but good luck to him. He seems to be good at connecting with people.

    It puzzles me a bit when he is an MP for Cumbria. Quite a change that. Still, having had a quick look at the competition, not much appeals.

    I think Penrith was always a stepping stone to something bigger. Now that route has been cut off, his ambition needs another

    Candidates usually play up their Londoness though, and seems to only have it when acting as an MP for Cumbria unless I have missed something. I can't see that winning in the Labour heartlands.
  • elbowlohelbowloh Posts: 2,118
    Rolf F wrote:
    Rory Stewart has now bailed from the Tory party; presumably he is following this thread......
    Wasn't he excluded anyway from the party following his support for the Benn Bill?
    Felt F1 2014
    Felt Z6 2012
    Red Arthur Caygill steel frame ??
    Tall....
  • CargobikeCargobike Posts: 137
    Well Kier, you're the opposition leader, it's your job to get those answers on our behalf, so less of the pontificating on social media. Politics on all sides of the "house" are an absolute censored -show these days.
    Personally, I'd take a modern day Guy Fawkes and blow the lot to smithereens, they're all as comtemptible as each other.
  • coopster_the_1stcoopster_the_1st Posts: 3,718
    https://mobile.twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1265403606288777219

    5 months since the election and only 44% of Lib Dum voters would vote for the Lib Dums again :smiley:

    15% would now vote Conservative and 37% for Labour
    Fair-weather commuter
    Canyon Ultimate CF 8.0 in Black
  • Stevo_666Stevo_666 Posts: 40,682
    edited 27 May

    https://mobile.twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1265403606288777219

    5 months since the election and only 44% of Lib Dum voters would vote for the Lib Dums again :smiley:

    15% would now vote Conservative and 37% for Labour

    They should look on the bright side, 56% of **** all isn't a big loss in absolute terms :D

    But apparently it's all about proportions as someone keeps telling us....
    Whippet
    Bruiser
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    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • surrey_commutersurrey_commuter Posts: 10,514
    Boom!!!!!

    Comrade Boris smashes through the 100% debt to GDP ratio.

    With taxes plummeting, spending soaring and the economy shrinking I reckon he is eyeing up 120% which is the point some academics say the troubles start.
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 47,981 Lives Here

    Boom!!!!!

    Comrade Boris smashes through the 100% debt to GDP ratio.

    With taxes plummeting, spending soaring and the economy shrinking I reckon he is eyeing up 120% which is the point some academics say the troubles start.

    Gilt rates tell you differently
  • surrey_commutersurrey_commuter Posts: 10,514

    Boom!!!!!

    Comrade Boris smashes through the 100% debt to GDP ratio.

    With taxes plummeting, spending soaring and the economy shrinking I reckon he is eyeing up 120% which is the point some academics say the troubles start.

    Gilt rates tell you differently
    Where do you reckon gilt rates would be if the BofE was not such an active buyer?
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 47,981 Lives Here
    edited 20 June

    Boom!!!!!

    Comrade Boris smashes through the 100% debt to GDP ratio.

    With taxes plummeting, spending soaring and the economy shrinking I reckon he is eyeing up 120% which is the point some academics say the troubles start.

    Gilt rates tell you differently
    Where do you reckon gilt rates would be if the BofE was not such an active buyer?
    Speaking to various gilt PMs they seem to think it only really had an effect on the price during the corona crash in March. And more as a stabiliser.
  • surrey_commutersurrey_commuter Posts: 10,514

    Boom!!!!!

    Comrade Boris smashes through the 100% debt to GDP ratio.

    With taxes plummeting, spending soaring and the economy shrinking I reckon he is eyeing up 120% which is the point some academics say the troubles start.

    Gilt rates tell you differently
    Where do you reckon gilt rates would be if the BofE was not such an active buyer?
    Speaking to various gilt PMs they seem to think it only really had an effect on the price during the corona crash in March. And more as a stabiliser.
    So why did the BofE expand QE to match the record levels of Gilts issued?

    You know enough about economics and are bright enough to peer below the surface and see the emperor has no clothes.

    If it is such a good idea why doesn’t the BofE buy all gilts ever issues and save itself £50bn a year?
    Of course the answer to that is the £50bn does not matter as it can sell more gilts to itself to pay that bill.
  • TheBigBeanTheBigBean Posts: 9,837

    Boom!!!!!

    Comrade Boris smashes through the 100% debt to GDP ratio.

    With taxes plummeting, spending soaring and the economy shrinking I reckon he is eyeing up 120% which is the point some academics say the troubles start.

    Gilt rates tell you differently
    Where do you reckon gilt rates would be if the BofE was not such an active buyer?
    Speaking to various gilt PMs they seem to think it only really had an effect on the price during the corona crash in March. And more as a stabiliser.
    So why did the BofE expand QE to match the record levels of Gilts issued?

    You know enough about economics and are bright enough to peer below the surface and see the emperor has no clothes.

    If it is such a good idea why doesn’t the BofE buy all gilts ever issues and save itself £50bn a year?
    Of course the answer to that is the £50bn does not matter as it can sell more gilts to itself to pay that bill.
    You don't think the BoE should use expanionary monetary policy during a record beating recession?
  • surrey_commutersurrey_commuter Posts: 10,514

    Boom!!!!!

    Comrade Boris smashes through the 100% debt to GDP ratio.

    With taxes plummeting, spending soaring and the economy shrinking I reckon he is eyeing up 120% which is the point some academics say the troubles start.

    Gilt rates tell you differently
    Where do you reckon gilt rates would be if the BofE was not such an active buyer?
    Speaking to various gilt PMs they seem to think it only really had an effect on the price during the corona crash in March. And more as a stabiliser.
    So why did the BofE expand QE to match the record levels of Gilts issued?

    You know enough about economics and are bright enough to peer below the surface and see the emperor has no clothes.

    If it is such a good idea why doesn’t the BofE buy all gilts ever issues and save itself £50bn a year?
    Of course the answer to that is the £50bn does not matter as it can sell more gilts to itself to pay that bill.
    You don't think the BoE should use expanionary monetary policy during a record beating recession?
    You are answering a question with a question
  • TheBigBeanTheBigBean Posts: 9,837

    Boom!!!!!

    Comrade Boris smashes through the 100% debt to GDP ratio.

    With taxes plummeting, spending soaring and the economy shrinking I reckon he is eyeing up 120% which is the point some academics say the troubles start.

    Gilt rates tell you differently
    Where do you reckon gilt rates would be if the BofE was not such an active buyer?
    Speaking to various gilt PMs they seem to think it only really had an effect on the price during the corona crash in March. And more as a stabiliser.
    So why did the BofE expand QE to match the record levels of Gilts issued?

    You know enough about economics and are bright enough to peer below the surface and see the emperor has no clothes.

    If it is such a good idea why doesn’t the BofE buy all gilts ever issues and save itself £50bn a year?
    Of course the answer to that is the £50bn does not matter as it can sell more gilts to itself to pay that bill.
    You don't think the BoE should use expanionary monetary policy during a record beating recession?
    You are answering a question with a question
    I'm trying to clarify what your question is.
  • surrey_commutersurrey_commuter Posts: 10,514

    Boom!!!!!

    Comrade Boris smashes through the 100% debt to GDP ratio.

    With taxes plummeting, spending soaring and the economy shrinking I reckon he is eyeing up 120% which is the point some academics say the troubles start.

    Gilt rates tell you differently
    Where do you reckon gilt rates would be if the BofE was not such an active buyer?
    Speaking to various gilt PMs they seem to think it only really had an effect on the price during the corona crash in March. And more as a stabiliser.
    So why did the BofE expand QE to match the record levels of Gilts issued?

    You know enough about economics and are bright enough to peer below the surface and see the emperor has no clothes.

    If it is such a good idea why doesn’t the BofE buy all gilts ever issues and save itself £50bn a year?
    Of course the answer to that is the £50bn does not matter as it can sell more gilts to itself to pay that bill.
    You don't think the BoE should use expanionary monetary policy during a record beating recession?
    You are answering a question with a question
    I'm trying to clarify what your question is.
    I am asking whether you think it would be a good idea for the BofE to buy all existing gilts and save the Govt circa £50bn a year?

    See it as stress testing an idea by taking it to the nth degree
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 47,981 Lives Here
    edited 20 June
  • pblakeneypblakeney Posts: 11,674
    Down to a "T".
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • TheBigBeanTheBigBean Posts: 9,837

    Boom!!!!!

    Comrade Boris smashes through the 100% debt to GDP ratio.

    With taxes plummeting, spending soaring and the economy shrinking I reckon he is eyeing up 120% which is the point some academics say the troubles start.

    Gilt rates tell you differently
    Where do you reckon gilt rates would be if the BofE was not such an active buyer?
    Speaking to various gilt PMs they seem to think it only really had an effect on the price during the corona crash in March. And more as a stabiliser.
    So why did the BofE expand QE to match the record levels of Gilts issued?

    You know enough about economics and are bright enough to peer below the surface and see the emperor has no clothes.

    If it is such a good idea why doesn’t the BofE buy all gilts ever issues and save itself £50bn a year?
    Of course the answer to that is the £50bn does not matter as it can sell more gilts to itself to pay that bill.
    You don't think the BoE should use expanionary monetary policy during a record beating recession?
    You are answering a question with a question
    I'm trying to clarify what your question is.
    I am asking whether you think it would be a good idea for the BofE to buy all existing gilts and save the Govt circa £50bn a year?

    See it as stress testing an idea by taking it to the nth degree
    Too much expansionary monetary policy would result in a devalued pound and high inflation. The BoE clearly thinks that the current levels have a manageable amount of risk.

    One of the inspirations for BitCoin was Japan's continued QE.
  • surrey_commutersurrey_commuter Posts: 10,514

    Boom!!!!!

    Comrade Boris smashes through the 100% debt to GDP ratio.

    With taxes plummeting, spending soaring and the economy shrinking I reckon he is eyeing up 120% which is the point some academics say the troubles start.

    Gilt rates tell you differently
    Where do you reckon gilt rates would be if the BofE was not such an active buyer?
    Speaking to various gilt PMs they seem to think it only really had an effect on the price during the corona crash in March. And more as a stabiliser.
    So why did the BofE expand QE to match the record levels of Gilts issued?

    You know enough about economics and are bright enough to peer below the surface and see the emperor has no clothes.

    If it is such a good idea why doesn’t the BofE buy all gilts ever issues and save itself £50bn a year?
    Of course the answer to that is the £50bn does not matter as it can sell more gilts to itself to pay that bill.
    You don't think the BoE should use expanionary monetary policy during a record beating recession?
    You are answering a question with a question
    I'm trying to clarify what your question is.
    I am asking whether you think it would be a good idea for the BofE to buy all existing gilts and save the Govt circa £50bn a year?

    See it as stress testing an idea by taking it to the nth degree
    Too much expansionary monetary policy would result in a devalued pound and high inflation. The BoE clearly thinks that the current levels have a manageable amount of risk.

    One of the inspirations for BitCoin was Japan's continued QE.
    Is their current policy QE or even expansionary monetary policy?

    The slump in the economy was not caused by people having less money.

    Surely the Govt has taken over paying 10 million people in the hope that when C19 passes through they will still have jobs to go back to?
    My argument is that they were worried they would not be able to sell the gilts so the BofE created the demand for them.

    As you know I really don’t get the BofE buying gilts and why it was never done before. On that basis if the Bof E kept buying gilts at the rate of £50bn a month why would that cause inflation?
  • Stevo_666Stevo_666 Posts: 40,682

    Boom!!!!!

    Comrade Boris smashes through the 100% debt to GDP ratio.

    With taxes plummeting, spending soaring and the economy shrinking I reckon he is eyeing up 120% which is the point some academics say the troubles start.

    I think this is a fairly balanced view of the pros and cons of the current government borrowing situation:
    https://telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/19/britain-joins-100pc-club-does-soaring-national-debt-matter/
    Whippet
    Bruiser
    Panzer
    Commuter

    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • surrey_commutersurrey_commuter Posts: 10,514
    Stevo_666 said:

    Boom!!!!!

    Comrade Boris smashes through the 100% debt to GDP ratio.

    With taxes plummeting, spending soaring and the economy shrinking I reckon he is eyeing up 120% which is the point some academics say the troubles start.

    I think this is a fairly balanced view of the pros and cons of the current government borrowing situation:
    https://telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/19/britain-joins-100pc-club-does-soaring-national-debt-matter/
    Can’t read that but please don’t tell me you have joined the magic money tree gang
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 47,981 Lives Here
    Unless you start talking in terms of cost-of-servicing it’s hard to have a conversation about it that isn’t shouting past each other.
  • Stevo_666Stevo_666 Posts: 40,682

    Stevo_666 said:

    Boom!!!!!

    Comrade Boris smashes through the 100% debt to GDP ratio.

    With taxes plummeting, spending soaring and the economy shrinking I reckon he is eyeing up 120% which is the point some academics say the troubles start.

    I think this is a fairly balanced view of the pros and cons of the current government borrowing situation:
    https://telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/19/britain-joins-100pc-club-does-soaring-national-debt-matter/
    Can’t read that but please don’t tell me you have joined the magic money tree gang
    Nope, the longer term risks of things going pear shaped if borrowing costs rise materially remains, but as with anything it's not totally black and white. I'll cut and paste.
    Whippet
    Bruiser
    Panzer
    Commuter

    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Stevo_666Stevo_666 Posts: 40,682
    edited 21 June
    Part 1

    "Britain joins the 100pc club. But does soaring national debt matter any more?
    Bumper borrowing is not free or painless, despite record low interest rates

    The Government’s debts are now worth more than the entire economy’s annual output.

    Borrowing to battle the coronavirus and the dire economic effects of the lockdown has pushed up the debt by £173bn compared to May 2019, the biggest annual increase since monthly records began in 1993.

    The latest surge in borrowing is far greater than anything seen in the financial crisis.

    That blows out of the water all efforts to cut the deficit over the past decade.

    In fact to understand the scale of this debt spree one has to look back over the 20th century as a whole.

    The last time the debt stood at more than 100pc of GDP was 1963.

    That was roughly the mid-point of a half-century effort to pay down the debts racked up in the Second World War. The cost of fighting Nazi Germany and the Japanese Empire had pushed Britain’s debts to more than 250pc of GDP.

    Yet two major crises in the 21st century have tripled the national debt, as a share of GDP, in 20 years.

    Government debt has not been this high since the 1960s
    Combination chart with 2 data series.
    It took decades to fall after WW2

    There might have been a good reason to borrow - it is better to shut down the economy, trash tax revenues and boost Government spending than it is to let the coronavirus rampage through the population.

    Borrowing is eminently possible. Financial markets are keen to throw cash into safe havens such as Government bonds, and central banks in the UK and around the world are printing money like there is no tomorrow to calm markets and keep interest rates down, which has the happy side effect of helping the Treasury fund its spending.

    And low interest rates mean that even as the debt surges, the Government is not feeling any pressure from the cost of servicing those loans. In fact, the share of Government revenues going on debt interests was just 3.7pc last year, a record. By contrast it was more than 10pc when the debt was last higher than 100pc.

    But that does not mean the huge debts are in any sense free or painless - even at low rates, interest payments amount to around £50bn per year.

    Rather, borrowing heavily means the cost of this crisis is spread over the years and decades, with the low interest rate easing the burden rather than eliminating it.

    The debt was incurred in part to preserve the economy’s productive capacity - to keep jobs and businesses afloat, which should accelerate the recovery."
    Whippet
    Bruiser
    Panzer
    Commuter

    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Stevo_666Stevo_666 Posts: 40,682
    edited 21 June
    Part 2

    "Yet the burden of the debt itself is still painful, and could limit future growth.

    Harvard economists Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart - the latter now on her way to becoming chief economist at the World Bank - found that economies in which the Government has debts of more than 90pc of GDP typically grow significantly more slowly than those with lower debts.

    There was subsequent controversy over the quality of the data used and furious debate on whether or not this justified ‘austerity’ policies, but the economists defend the overall conclusion that big debts risk spikes in interest rates and regular financial crises.

    Italy has long struggled with its debts. At 130pc of GDP or more, it is regularly the subject of market panics that typically force up borrowing costs and hit the economy.

    Greece clearly underwent extreme pain following the financial crisis. Even now - or at least, before the pandemic struck - its improved debt trajectory was considered unsustainable, with fears it would go through another crisis in 30 to 40 years’ time.

    Japan is an exception. Its national debt of more than 200pc of GDP has not led to disaster, with the central bank intervening heavily to keep interest rates low in a fruitless quest to boost inflation in recent decades. That said, while it is a prosperous nation, it is not the most dynamic economy going.

    Optimists would hope the UK is more like Japan, as it is not tied into a currency union like Italy.

    The UK is not the most indebted country in Europe

    The debt’s sustainability also relies on interest rates remaining low.

    Currently the general view is that deflation is a bigger risk than inflation, with central banks around the world struggling to lift inflation to their targets - requiring low interest rates, rather than high rates.

    Yet there is always a risk. Since the last time the Government’s debt was this high, the Bank of England’s base rate fluctuated between a high of 17pc in the 1980s to today’s record low of 0.1pc. It would be unwise to assume rates have to remain at rock-bottom forever, and to bet the nation’s prosperity on it.

    If inflation was to surge, interest rates might shoot up. The Institute of Economic Affairs this week warned the galloping money supply could be a threat. Another risk is posed by the shift away from globalisation - when once cheap goods from nations including China kept inflation down in the West, a combination of trade wars and coronavirus could reverse the process, pushing prices up."
    Whippet
    Bruiser
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    Commuter

    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
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