LEAVE the Conservative Party and save your country!

Jezyboy

Given Boris can seemingly not afford to live on a PM's salary and the total non-entities waiting in the wings, maybe Kier just needs a little patience.

shirley_basso

Gove is ready.

Starmer has to be patient as being the opposition doesn't really work during a pandemic - anything he says will be seen as petty. I hope he absolutely destroys Bojo when the time is right. He should be capable of doing it

rjsterry

rick_chasey said:

morstar said:

rick_chasey said:

morstar said:

rick_chasey said:

morstar said:

rick_chasey said:

A collapse in the labour vote in Hartlepool is noteworthy.

Agree it was big news at the last election.

Right now, given the reasons for the collapse, there is nothing particularly convincing to revert that collapse.

If you went Tory because you prized Brexit over all else, the flat refurbishment probably isn’t a deal breaker when the opposition has been MIA and may still have a different view to you on Brexit.

I guess the learning is that everybody is maybe realising Brexit is still ongoing.

I guess I see it as remarkable for a couple reasons.

a) it puts a dent in the theory the Tories were 'borrowing' the votes around there for Brexit. I think I said at the time I was sceptical that that was the case and that it confirms we are seeing a realignment of politics, where your social status/class matters much less than how old you are.

b) when I talk about performance I'm talking about 125,000 dead and generally a botched handling of everything bar the vaccine (which the gov't barely touched!!!!), not some spenny wallpaper.

Stop with the age obsession. There’s plenty of young people with a very ‘British’ perspective that made Hartlepool Tory / Brexit happen.

Also, I think there’s a fear Brexit isn’t quite done. As I said people realise there’s still ongoing discussions so they would still want to be represented by a Pro Brexit party during these ongoing talks.

The 125K is intangible and the opposition have been too late going public opposing anything or at least visibly they have.

Find me the polling data that doesn't say age is the biggest factor since 2017 and I'll think about ditching the age obsession.

I agree that age is a major factor but two things.

It is not the only factor.
You obsess about it on many topics and regularly dismiss the opinions of people solely on age grounds.

I’ve just turned 50, my priorities have / do continue to evolve but I am not in a one dimensional downward spiral.

Macro trends =/= personal trends.

Don’t take it personally.

Class isn’t a factor in who you vote for - it’s fairly evenly distributed now.

Education is but arguably that is a function of age

That sounds like post-rationalisation to fit your theory that everything revolves around age. I also think that applying macro trends as stock answers to small scale events is making the mirror image of the error you accused morstar of making.

morstar

Jezyboy said:

Given Boris can seemingly not afford to live on a PM's salary and the total non-entities waiting in the wings, maybe Kier just needs a little patience.

I can only assume that labour are playing a waiting game. It's either that or they genuinely have no direction at all.

Jezyboy

shirley_basso said:

Gove is ready.

Starmer has to be patient as being the opposition doesn't really work during a pandemic - anything he says will be seen as petty. I hope he absolutely destroys Bojo when the time is right. He should be capable of doing it

I think Starmer would prefer Gove to be honest.

Gove is just not likeable.

Problem with destroying Johnson is that you risk looking like your kicking an innocent animal that couldn't have been expected to do anything other than poo on a rug.

rjsterry

john80 said:

rick_chasey said:

Labour not looking particularly rosey in the elections on Thursday.

Getting spanked in Hartlepool by-election, a previous safe seat. Quite a heavy Brexit vote 5 years ago so continuing that alignment - older town than most too

Remarkable, given what's going on at a national level. Seems performance is irrelevant nowadays.

The problem you have is in understanding that Labour have no answer for a large number of voters to make them want to vote for them. The mixture of fake standing up for the working class whilst they see their incomes and relative wealth collapse is not a good look. So ask yourselve the question with the exception of your average person on the dole who don't vote what in Kier's manifesto would make you vote labour?

I've not voted for either party but if I had to choose, I'd vote for the guy who can finish a sentence without lying.

tailwindhome

Stevo_666 said:

Thursday could be interesting. Given that Hartlepool would normally vote for a hat stand if it had a red rosette, it's Labour's to lose.

Seems like the usual mid term dips in any governments popularity don't seem to apply here.

I might have to stop talking about an 80 seat majority

When you look at the history of the constituency, the common factor is a Labour win, but underneath that there have been huge shifts in votes fron party to party from one election to the next.

It would be interesting to track the path voters have taken to Tory.

Stevo_666

shirley_basso said:

Gove is ready.

Starmer has to be patient as being the opposition doesn't really work during a pandemic - anything he says will be seen as petty. I hope he absolutely destroys Bojo when the time is right. He should be capable of doing it

Being the opposition in a pandemic would work if he or Labour were any good.

Stevo_666

Jezyboy said:

shirley_basso said:

Gove is ready.

Starmer has to be patient as being the opposition doesn't really work during a pandemic - anything he says will be seen as petty. I hope he absolutely destroys Bojo when the time is right. He should be capable of doing it

I think Starmer would prefer Gove to be honest.

Gove is just not likeable.

Problem with destroying Johnson is that you risk looking like your kicking an innocent animal that couldn't have been expected to do anything other than poo on a rug.

Let's see what the result of the Hartlepool by election is first shall we? Then Starmer might need a bit of sympathy.

Stevo_666

tailwindhome said:

Stevo_666 said:

Thursday could be interesting. Given that Hartlepool would normally vote for a hat stand if it had a red rosette, it's Labour's to lose.

Seems like the usual mid term dips in any governments popularity don't seem to apply here.

I might have to stop talking about an 80 seat majority

When you look at the history of the constituency, the common factor is a Labour win, but underneath that there have been huge shifts in votes fron party to party from one election to the next.

It would be interesting to track the path voters have taken to Tory.

2 possible reasons. Either the tories are better than the knee jerk haters on here believe, or Labour are utter shyte. Or both.

rjsterry

Stevo_666 said:

tailwindhome said:

Stevo_666 said:

Thursday could be interesting. Given that Hartlepool would normally vote for a hat stand if it had a red rosette, it's Labour's to lose.

Seems like the usual mid term dips in any governments popularity don't seem to apply here.

I might have to stop talking about an 80 seat majority

When you look at the history of the constituency, the common factor is a Labour win, but underneath that there have been huge shifts in votes fron party to party from one election to the next.

It would be interesting to track the path voters have taken to Tory.

2 possible reasons. Either the tories are better than the knee jerk haters on here, or Labour are utter shyte. Or both.

Both parties? Yes, I can agree with that.

rjsterry

Name the candidate:

Getting young Londoners on the housing ladder —
by building 100,000 homes and selling them for £100,000 each

😂

Jezyboy

rjsterry said:

Name the candidate:

Getting young Londoners on the housing ladder —
by building 100,000 homes and selling them for £100,000 each

😂

The party spent all their money on furnishing so couldn't afford advisors?

kingstongraham

Stevo_666 said:

tailwindhome said:

Stevo_666 said:

Thursday could be interesting. Given that Hartlepool would normally vote for a hat stand if it had a red rosette, it's Labour's to lose.

Seems like the usual mid term dips in any governments popularity don't seem to apply here.

I might have to stop talking about an 80 seat majority

When you look at the history of the constituency, the common factor is a Labour win, but underneath that there have been huge shifts in votes fron party to party from one election to the next.

It would be interesting to track the path voters have taken to Tory.

2 possible reasons. Either the tories are better than the knee jerk haters on here believe, or Labour are utter shyte. Or both.

That's true.

rick_chasey

rjsterry said:

rick_chasey said:

morstar said:

rick_chasey said:

morstar said:

rick_chasey said:

morstar said:

rick_chasey said:

A collapse in the labour vote in Hartlepool is noteworthy.

Agree it was big news at the last election.

Right now, given the reasons for the collapse, there is nothing particularly convincing to revert that collapse.

If you went Tory because you prized Brexit over all else, the flat refurbishment probably isn’t a deal breaker when the opposition has been MIA and may still have a different view to you on Brexit.

I guess the learning is that everybody is maybe realising Brexit is still ongoing.

I guess I see it as remarkable for a couple reasons.

a) it puts a dent in the theory the Tories were 'borrowing' the votes around there for Brexit. I think I said at the time I was sceptical that that was the case and that it confirms we are seeing a realignment of politics, where your social status/class matters much less than how old you are.

b) when I talk about performance I'm talking about 125,000 dead and generally a botched handling of everything bar the vaccine (which the gov't barely touched!!!!), not some spenny wallpaper.

Stop with the age obsession. There’s plenty of young people with a very ‘British’ perspective that made Hartlepool Tory / Brexit happen.

Also, I think there’s a fear Brexit isn’t quite done. As I said people realise there’s still ongoing discussions so they would still want to be represented by a Pro Brexit party during these ongoing talks.

The 125K is intangible and the opposition have been too late going public opposing anything or at least visibly they have.

Find me the polling data that doesn't say age is the biggest factor since 2017 and I'll think about ditching the age obsession.

I agree that age is a major factor but two things.

It is not the only factor.
You obsess about it on many topics and regularly dismiss the opinions of people solely on age grounds.

I’ve just turned 50, my priorities have / do continue to evolve but I am not in a one dimensional downward spiral.

Macro trends =/= personal trends.

Don’t take it personally.

Class isn’t a factor in who you vote for - it’s fairly evenly distributed now.

Education is but arguably that is a function of age

That sounds like post-rationalisation to fit your theory that everything revolves around age. I also think that applying macro trends as stock answers to small scale events is making the mirror image of the error you accused morstar of making.

Sure, could be.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/12/17/how-britain-voted-2019-general-election

Take a look yourself.


And as for the path of Tory voters, here are a couple charts from that link

shirley_basso

Stevo_666 said:

shirley_basso said:

Gove is ready.

Starmer has to be patient as being the opposition doesn't really work during a pandemic - anything he says will be seen as petty. I hope he absolutely destroys Bojo when the time is right. He should be capable of doing it

Being the opposition in a pandemic would work if he or Labour were any good.

Not really - because every time they opposed this government it would be easy to shut them up by saying they are being difficult and stopping/hindering the government from helping and thus worsening the pandemic.

Hopefully they are saving their political capital for the second half of this year.

I don't particularly like Labour and so far Kier Starmer hasn't said anything to inspire, but I think a strong opposition is a good thing and I am not a fan of Boris Johnson.

Jezyboy

kingstongraham said:

Stevo_666 said:

tailwindhome said:

Stevo_666 said:

Thursday could be interesting. Given that Hartlepool would normally vote for a hat stand if it had a red rosette, it's Labour's to lose.

Seems like the usual mid term dips in any governments popularity don't seem to apply here.

I might have to stop talking about an 80 seat majority

When you look at the history of the constituency, the common factor is a Labour win, but underneath that there have been huge shifts in votes fron party to party from one election to the next.

It would be interesting to track the path voters have taken to Tory.

2 possible reasons. Either the tories are better than the knee jerk haters on here believe, or Labour are utter shyte. Or both.

That's true.

No its not. It's three possible reasons.

rick_chasey

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/is-britain-about-to-experience-a-westminster-earthquake/

This talks about 2 realignments. - as well as lots besides.

1) secular - basically age.

The most plausible candidate for secular realignment in the UK concerns the steady fading of class divisions as predictors of party choice in the electorate – and its replacement by a widening and substantial generational gap. Secular realignment model produces an incremental, durable and persistent strengthening in the long-term contours of party support. Elsewhere in Cultural Backlash I have argued that the rise of authoritarian-populism can be attributed to a tipping point in the balance of forces dividing social conservativism and social liberalism, fuelled by enduring generational value shifts. Generation (and education) replaces social class as the core cleavage in the electorate.

2) Critical realignment: Cultural Backlash (her book) argues that the classic economic Left-Right cleavage in party competition found in many established democracies during earlier decades has faded in importance, replaced by contemporary competition over Authoritarian and Progressive cultural values, on one dimension, and the use of Pluralist or Populist rhetoric, on the other. The simple Left-Right economic cleavage over state v. markets has been replaced by a strategic game of multilevel competition.

skyblueamateur

Anecdotal, but among people of my age from early 30's to early 40's Labour are utterly done for.

Corbyn was the final nail in the coffin so Stevo was successful. The hatred that is spewed towards Labour now regardless means I can't see them being elected for a very long time.

Education seems to be a major factor. Rick won't recognise it but the arguments regarding the liberal, middle class lovies has a lot of basis. Again, only talking from my social group but those of us pretty comfortable are much more willing to vote Labour while those on lower incomes are not necessarily pro-Tory but just vehemently anti-Labour.

I await being called patronising

rick_chasey

skyblueamateur said:

Anecdotal, but among people of my age from early 30's to early 40's Labour are utterly done for.

Corbyn was the final nail in the coffin so Stevo was successful. The hatred that is spewed towards Labour now regardless means I can't see them being elected for a very long time.

Education seems to be a major factor. Rick won't recognise it but the arguments regarding the liberal, middle class lovies has a lot of basis. Again, only talking from my social group but those of us pretty comfortable are much more willing to vote Labour while those on lower incomes are not necessarily pro-Tory but just vehemently anti-Labour.

I await being called patronising

Education is certainly a factor.



There is obviously a loose correlation between education and age as smaller proportion of the older generation went to university.




I mean, read the polling analysis of the last two elections.

They both say in order if importance it goes age, then education.

skyblueamateur

Labour need to reassess and bang a different drum.

Things like sure-start, youth clubs, community hubs. Things that will make a tangible benefit to those on lower incomes.

Like Blair did, use the populist policies to get elected and then implement the other policies.

Rightly or wrongly banging on about issues that people see as 'PC gone mad' ( a whole other argument that has been done to death on here) just doesn't cut it on the doorstep. It does with the party members but that isn't going to win elections.

rjsterry

rick_chasey said:

rjsterry said:

rick_chasey said:

morstar said:

rick_chasey said:

morstar said:

rick_chasey said:

morstar said:

rick_chasey said:

A collapse in the labour vote in Hartlepool is noteworthy.

Agree it was big news at the last election.

Right now, given the reasons for the collapse, there is nothing particularly convincing to revert that collapse.

If you went Tory because you prized Brexit over all else, the flat refurbishment probably isn’t a deal breaker when the opposition has been MIA and may still have a different view to you on Brexit.

I guess the learning is that everybody is maybe realising Brexit is still ongoing.

I guess I see it as remarkable for a couple reasons.

a) it puts a dent in the theory the Tories were 'borrowing' the votes around there for Brexit. I think I said at the time I was sceptical that that was the case and that it confirms we are seeing a realignment of politics, where your social status/class matters much less than how old you are.

b) when I talk about performance I'm talking about 125,000 dead and generally a botched handling of everything bar the vaccine (which the gov't barely touched!!!!), not some spenny wallpaper.

Stop with the age obsession. There’s plenty of young people with a very ‘British’ perspective that made Hartlepool Tory / Brexit happen.

Also, I think there’s a fear Brexit isn’t quite done. As I said people realise there’s still ongoing discussions so they would still want to be represented by a Pro Brexit party during these ongoing talks.

The 125K is intangible and the opposition have been too late going public opposing anything or at least visibly they have.

Find me the polling data that doesn't say age is the biggest factor since 2017 and I'll think about ditching the age obsession.

I agree that age is a major factor but two things.

It is not the only factor.
You obsess about it on many topics and regularly dismiss the opinions of people solely on age grounds.

I’ve just turned 50, my priorities have / do continue to evolve but I am not in a one dimensional downward spiral.

Macro trends =/= personal trends.

Don’t take it personally.

Class isn’t a factor in who you vote for - it’s fairly evenly distributed now.

Education is but arguably that is a function of age

That sounds like post-rationalisation to fit your theory that everything revolves around age. I also think that applying macro trends as stock answers to small scale events is making the mirror image of the error you accused morstar of making.

Sure, could be.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/12/17/how-britain-voted-2019-general-election

Take a look yourself.


And as for the path of Tory voters, here are a couple charts from that link

I think we are talking about slightly different things. The national level voting patterns that you describe are certainly there and are useful for parties to know who they are reaching and who they aren't. But on an individual level and possibly even at a constituency level, people don't think "I'm under 40, so I should vote Labour".

I do think people abandoning a party that has represented a constituency for that long is fundamentally a good thing. It's not good for parties to complacently assume certain constituencies are 'their' voters.

rick_chasey

skyblueamateur said:

Labour need to reassess and bang a different drum.

Things like sure-start, youth clubs, community hubs. Things that will make a tangible benefit to those on lower incomes.

Like Blair did, use the populist policies to get elected and then implement the other policies.

Rightly or wrongly banging on about issues that people see as 'PC gone mad' ( a whole other argument that has been done to death on here) just doesn't cut it on the doorstep. It does with the party members but that isn't going to win elections.

The FPTP system means they need to shift rightwards too.

Labour spends a lot of time piling up votes in city centres and it is not very efficient.

What is labour's policy to improve your local market town? I couldn't tell you.

tailwindhome

Stevo_666 said:

tailwindhome said:

Stevo_666 said:

Thursday could be interesting. Given that Hartlepool would normally vote for a hat stand if it had a red rosette, it's Labour's to lose.

Seems like the usual mid term dips in any governments popularity don't seem to apply here.

I might have to stop talking about an 80 seat majority

When you look at the history of the constituency, the common factor is a Labour win, but underneath that there have been huge shifts in votes fron party to party from one election to the next.

It would be interesting to track the path voters have taken to Tory.

2 possible reasons. Either the tories are better than the knee jerk haters on here believe, or Labour are utter shyte. Or both.

Struggling to understand how your reply relates to my post.

ddraver

skyblueamateur said:

Labour need to reassess and bang a different drum.

Things like sure-start, youth clubs, community hubs. Things that will make a tangible benefit to those on lower incomes.

Like Blair did, use the populist policies to get elected and then implement the other policies.

Rightly or wrongly banging on about issues that people see as 'PC gone mad' ( a whole other argument that has been done to death on here) just doesn't cut it on the doorstep. It does with the party members but that isn't going to win elections.

I struggle to see how the 'PC gone mad' issues exist outside of twitter honestly.

It's interesting reading your post as it rankles and doesn't seem to make sense to me, but then I realise that I'm exactly the sort of person Starmer needs to be attracting (and is exactly the person to do so) but I'm probably not going to vote labour tomorrow either...

Your post made me go and actually look at my options. I'd barely know anything was happening down here if it weren't for two of the candidates living in my village and having had an ever-escalating battle over their car stickers for the last few weeks...

skyblueamateur

ddraver said:

skyblueamateur said:

Labour need to reassess and bang a different drum.

Things like sure-start, youth clubs, community hubs. Things that will make a tangible benefit to those on lower incomes.

Like Blair did, use the populist policies to get elected and then implement the other policies.

Rightly or wrongly banging on about issues that people see as 'PC gone mad' ( a whole other argument that has been done to death on here) just doesn't cut it on the doorstep. It does with the party members but that isn't going to win elections.

I struggle to see how the 'PC gone mad' issues exist outside of twitter honestly.

It's interesting reading your post as it rankles and doesn't seem to make sense to me, but then I realise that I'm exactly the sort of person Starmer needs to be attracting (and is exactly the person to do so) but I'm probably not going to vote labour tomorrow either...

Your post made me go and actually look at my options. I'd barely know anything was happening down here if it weren't for two of the candidates living in my village and having had an ever-escalating battle over their car stickers for the last few weeks...

I understand completely and it rankles with me too. I'm merely giving anecdotal evidence of what I see from within the class spectrum I grew up in.

surrey_commuter

@rick_chasey I think it is far too early to be calling the start of a new “mega trend” and here are a couple of reasons

Brexit split by age and Leavers care a lot more than Remainers so voted to get Brexit done, this impact must be expected to lessen relatively quickly.

I think you are ignoring the impact of populism, whereby a charismatic oaf makes undeliverable promises that target across traditional party lines. Because he is a charismatic oaf nobody seems to mind when these undeliverable promises are not delivered.

So you always encourage us to stop thinking along traditional lines so how about stop thinking about it as the same “Conservative and Unionist Party” because about the only thing Boris has in common with Maggie is the colour of the rosette. So the ex-Labour voters now voting Tory are the only consistent part of the equation as they are voting for the same policies they have always voted for.

Lastly, you know where I stand politically - who should I vote for?

john80

skyblueamateur said:

Labour need to reassess and bang a different drum.

Things like sure-start, youth clubs, community hubs. Things that will make a tangible benefit to those on lower incomes.

Like Blair did, use the populist policies to get elected and then implement the other policies.

Rightly or wrongly banging on about issues that people see as 'PC gone mad' ( a whole other argument that has been done to death on here) just doesn't cut it on the doorstep. It does with the party members but that isn't going to win elections.

It is funny how so few people see that those working their nut off and leaving the house at 7 in the morning were less thankful for their family tax credits than those in charge thought they should be. Turns out they just wanted to be paid more, pay less or the same tax and have little to do with the state. They also had a real problem with their next door neighbour watching day time TV and earning 70 to 90% of their income. Of course not living anywhere near this scenario the wealthy elites can't see this as an issue. This is Labours problem.

rjsterry

john80 said:

skyblueamateur said:

Labour need to reassess and bang a different drum.

Things like sure-start, youth clubs, community hubs. Things that will make a tangible benefit to those on lower incomes.

Like Blair did, use the populist policies to get elected and then implement the other policies.

Rightly or wrongly banging on about issues that people see as 'PC gone mad' ( a whole other argument that has been done to death on here) just doesn't cut it on the doorstep. It does with the party members but that isn't going to win elections.

It is funny how so few people see that those working their nut off and leaving the house at 7 in the morning were less thankful for their family tax credits than those in charge thought they should be. Turns out they just wanted to be paid more, pay less or the same tax and have little to do with the state. They also had a real problem with their next door neighbour watching day time TV and earning 70 to 90% of their income. Of course not living anywhere near this scenario the wealthy elites can't see this as an issue. This is Labours problem.

It wasn't that long ago that I qualified for a small amount of WTC. Given we were in the depths of the recession and I was on a 4-day week, it was very welcome. Maybe your generalisations are just as sweeping as RC's and maybe the kind of person who begrudges how much their neighbours have should find something that pays better if it bothers them that much rather than blaming the government for their lack of skills.

rjsterry

surrey_commuter said:

@rick_chasey I think it is far too early to be calling the start of a new “mega trend” and here are a couple of reasons

Brexit split by age and Leavers care a lot more than Remainers so voted to get Brexit done, this impact must be expected to lessen relatively quickly.

I think you are ignoring the impact of populism, whereby a charismatic oaf makes undeliverable promises that target across traditional party lines. Because he is a charismatic oaf nobody seems to mind when these undeliverable promises are not delivered.

So you always encourage us to stop thinking along traditional lines so how about stop thinking about it as the same “Conservative and Unionist Party” because about the only thing Boris has in common with Maggie is the colour of the rosette. So the ex-Labour voters now voting Tory are the only consistent part of the equation as they are voting for the same policies they have always voted for.

Lastly, you know where I stand politically - who should I vote for?

And where you are you don't even have the option of voting for Count Binface.