LEAVE the Conservative Party and save your country!

rick_chasey

elbowloh said:

Are the 2 ends of the high street as nice as each other or is there a naff end?

Nice / naff though the gap is closing.

kingstongraham

I'm sure I read somewhere that johnson took out a bank loan to pay back the conservative party? If so, he could have done that in the first place, and basically means he never intended to pay it back until he had to.

rjsterry

rick_chasey said:

So an interesting local political dynamic here where I live.

The local railway bridge separates two parts of the high street.

It was recently shut to cars as part of the national gov’t drive to reduce traffic in neighbourhoods. The same one that put all those flower pots down in London which annoyed car drivers.

This has created the predictable local politics flashpoint.

However we have local elections on Thursday and the local Tory is campaigning mainly on re-opening the bridge, and the local labour and Lib Dem’s are saying they will keep it.

Seems odd to me the local Tory is trying to launch a campaign to reverse the Tory national policy.

As ever it’s about where you stand in the culture wars (the bridge closure has become a proxy argument about gentrification, with the old working class residents railing against their old manky shops being replaced with coffee shops and bike shops and the middle class cyclist lobby) and not about actual policy.

Same here. Local Conservative MP has been campaigning vigorously against minor road closures brought in under government policy, but obviously enacted by the local authority.

tailwindhome

rick_chasey

Labour not looking particularly rosey in the elections on Thursday.

Getting spanked in Hartlepool by-election, a previous safe seat. Quite a heavy Brexit vote 5 years ago so continuing that alignment - older town than most too

Remarkable, given what's going on at a national level. Seems performance is irrelevant nowadays.

morstar

rick_chasey said:

Labour not looking particularly rosey in the elections on Thursday.

Getting spanked in Hartlepool by-election, a previous safe seat. Quite a heavy Brexit vote 5 years ago so continuing that alignment - older town than most too

Remarkable, given what's going on at a national level. Seems performance is irrelevant nowadays.

You’re overthinking it.

Coming out of Covid on back of vaccinations.

Brexit delivered and no obvious/significant tangible downside to people’s daily lives.

A bit of nationalism.

Labour invisible on media until very recently.

The latter being very significant. Lib Dem’s and Labour have been very low profile for the last 4-5 years so nothing coherent to rally behind.

Unless you are actively interested in politics, there’s nothing obvious to drive a recent convert away from the tories at present that can’t easily be dismissed.

rick_chasey

A collapse in the labour vote in Hartlepool is noteworthy.

elbowloh

tailwindhome said:

For the first graph on the leaders, is that national or just local polling?

morstar

rick_chasey said:

A collapse in the labour vote in Hartlepool is noteworthy.

Agree it was big news at the last election.

Right now, given the reasons for the collapse, there is nothing particularly convincing to revert that collapse.

If you went Tory because you prized Brexit over all else, the flat refurbishment probably isn’t a deal breaker when the opposition has been MIA and may still have a different view to you on Brexit.

I guess the learning is that everybody is maybe realising Brexit is still ongoing.

kingstongraham

morstar said:

rick_chasey said:

A collapse in the labour vote in Hartlepool is noteworthy.

Agree it was big news at the last election.

Right now, given the reasons for the collapse, there is nothing particularly convincing to revert that collapse.

If you went Tory because you prized Brexit over all else, the flat refurbishment probably isn’t a deal breaker when the opposition has been MIA and may still have a different view to you on Brexit.

I guess the learning is that everybody is maybe realising Brexit is still ongoing.

Why would they go back to Labour just now? Worried about the correct pronouns?

rick_chasey

morstar said:

rick_chasey said:

A collapse in the labour vote in Hartlepool is noteworthy.

Agree it was big news at the last election.

Right now, given the reasons for the collapse, there is nothing particularly convincing to revert that collapse.

If you went Tory because you prized Brexit over all else, the flat refurbishment probably isn’t a deal breaker when the opposition has been MIA and may still have a different view to you on Brexit.

I guess the learning is that everybody is maybe realising Brexit is still ongoing.

I guess I see it as remarkable for a couple reasons.

a) it puts a dent in the theory the Tories were 'borrowing' the votes around there for Brexit. I think I said at the time I was sceptical that that was the case and that it confirms we are seeing a realignment of politics, where your social status/class matters much less than how old you are.

b) when I talk about performance I'm talking about 125,000 dead and generally a botched handling of everything bar the vaccine (which the gov't barely touched!!!!), not some spenny wallpaper.

Pross

elbowloh said:

tailwindhome said:

For the first graph on the leaders, is that national or just local polling?

9% have not heard of Starmer is worrying. Is this simply that for the past year (longer if you count Brexit) there just hasn't been much coverage of 'normal' politics with everything being focussed on Covid which in turn means Boris has been on our screens more or less constantly and Starmer has had very little airtime by comparison? I suspect the leaders of the Scotland, Wales and NI have had more coverage than the opposition leader in the last 12 months. Maybe when Covid is finally under control and with Brexit being 'done' there will be more focus on the day to day running of the country and things will start to balance back out.

I have to admit I needed to look up Richard Tice, I assumed he'd be UKIP and I was sort of right.

Stevo_666

Thursday could be interesting. Given that Hartlepool would normally vote for a hat stand if it had a red rosette, it's Labour's to lose.

Seems like the usual mid term dips in any governments popularity don't seem to apply here.

I might have to stop talking about an 80 seat majority

kingstongraham

Be interesting to see if Labour's vote falls further. It's the Tories seat now after the collapse of the Brexit party.

I can't see why they'd think either party gives a toss about Hartlepool, to be honest. There's no evidence of it.

morstar

rick_chasey said:

morstar said:

rick_chasey said:

A collapse in the labour vote in Hartlepool is noteworthy.

Agree it was big news at the last election.

Right now, given the reasons for the collapse, there is nothing particularly convincing to revert that collapse.

If you went Tory because you prized Brexit over all else, the flat refurbishment probably isn’t a deal breaker when the opposition has been MIA and may still have a different view to you on Brexit.

I guess the learning is that everybody is maybe realising Brexit is still ongoing.

I guess I see it as remarkable for a couple reasons.

a) it puts a dent in the theory the Tories were 'borrowing' the votes around there for Brexit. I think I said at the time I was sceptical that that was the case and that it confirms we are seeing a realignment of politics, where your social status/class matters much less than how old you are.

b) when I talk about performance I'm talking about 125,000 dead and generally a botched handling of everything bar the vaccine (which the gov't barely touched!!!!), not some spenny wallpaper.

Stop with the age obsession. There’s plenty of young people with a very ‘British’ perspective that made Hartlepool Tory / Brexit happen.

Also, I think there’s a fear Brexit isn’t quite done. As I said people realise there’s still ongoing discussions so they would still want to be represented by a Pro Brexit party during these ongoing talks.

The 125K is intangible and the opposition have been too late going public opposing anything or at least visibly they have.

kingstongraham

rick_chasey said:

morstar said:

rick_chasey said:

A collapse in the labour vote in Hartlepool is noteworthy.

Agree it was big news at the last election.

Right now, given the reasons for the collapse, there is nothing particularly convincing to revert that collapse.

If you went Tory because you prized Brexit over all else, the flat refurbishment probably isn’t a deal breaker when the opposition has been MIA and may still have a different view to you on Brexit.

I guess the learning is that everybody is maybe realising Brexit is still ongoing.

I guess I see it as remarkable for a couple reasons.

a) it puts a dent in the theory the Tories were 'borrowing' the votes around there for Brexit. I think I said at the time I was sceptical that that was the case and that it confirms we are seeing a realignment of politics, where your social status/class matters much less than how old you are.

b) when I talk about performance I'm talking about 125,000 dead and generally a botched handling of everything bar the vaccine (which the gov't barely touched!!!!), not some spenny wallpaper.

They've managed to convince a lot of people that there was nothing could be done about all the death and sickness, and that they've done a great job on getting the vaccine out (which they have). That adds up to a lot of goodwill, especially when things are on the up and everyone is feeling more positive.

And especially when Labour have spent the past year simply rubber stamping what the Conservatives have ended up doing because it's too late to do anything else.

rick_chasey

morstar said:

rick_chasey said:

morstar said:

rick_chasey said:

A collapse in the labour vote in Hartlepool is noteworthy.

Agree it was big news at the last election.

Right now, given the reasons for the collapse, there is nothing particularly convincing to revert that collapse.

If you went Tory because you prized Brexit over all else, the flat refurbishment probably isn’t a deal breaker when the opposition has been MIA and may still have a different view to you on Brexit.

I guess the learning is that everybody is maybe realising Brexit is still ongoing.

I guess I see it as remarkable for a couple reasons.

a) it puts a dent in the theory the Tories were 'borrowing' the votes around there for Brexit. I think I said at the time I was sceptical that that was the case and that it confirms we are seeing a realignment of politics, where your social status/class matters much less than how old you are.

b) when I talk about performance I'm talking about 125,000 dead and generally a botched handling of everything bar the vaccine (which the gov't barely touched!!!!), not some spenny wallpaper.

Stop with the age obsession. There’s plenty of young people with a very ‘British’ perspective that made Hartlepool Tory / Brexit happen.

Also, I think there’s a fear Brexit isn’t quite done. As I said people realise there’s still ongoing discussions so they would still want to be represented by a Pro Brexit party during these ongoing talks.

The 125K is intangible and the opposition have been too late going public opposing anything or at least visibly they have.

Find me the polling data that doesn't say age is the biggest factor since 2017 and I'll think about ditching the age obsession.

morstar

rick_chasey said:

morstar said:

rick_chasey said:

morstar said:

rick_chasey said:

A collapse in the labour vote in Hartlepool is noteworthy.

Agree it was big news at the last election.

Right now, given the reasons for the collapse, there is nothing particularly convincing to revert that collapse.

If you went Tory because you prized Brexit over all else, the flat refurbishment probably isn’t a deal breaker when the opposition has been MIA and may still have a different view to you on Brexit.

I guess the learning is that everybody is maybe realising Brexit is still ongoing.

I guess I see it as remarkable for a couple reasons.

a) it puts a dent in the theory the Tories were 'borrowing' the votes around there for Brexit. I think I said at the time I was sceptical that that was the case and that it confirms we are seeing a realignment of politics, where your social status/class matters much less than how old you are.

b) when I talk about performance I'm talking about 125,000 dead and generally a botched handling of everything bar the vaccine (which the gov't barely touched!!!!), not some spenny wallpaper.

Stop with the age obsession. There’s plenty of young people with a very ‘British’ perspective that made Hartlepool Tory / Brexit happen.

Also, I think there’s a fear Brexit isn’t quite done. As I said people realise there’s still ongoing discussions so they would still want to be represented by a Pro Brexit party during these ongoing talks.

The 125K is intangible and the opposition have been too late going public opposing anything or at least visibly they have.

Find me the polling data that doesn't say age is the biggest factor since 2017 and I'll think about ditching the age obsession.

I agree that age is a major factor but two things.

It is not the only factor.
You obsess about it on many topics and regularly dismiss the opinions of people solely on age grounds.

I’ve just turned 50, my priorities have / do continue to evolve but I am not in a one dimensional downward spiral.

rick_chasey

morstar said:

rick_chasey said:

morstar said:

rick_chasey said:

morstar said:

rick_chasey said:

A collapse in the labour vote in Hartlepool is noteworthy.

Agree it was big news at the last election.

Right now, given the reasons for the collapse, there is nothing particularly convincing to revert that collapse.

If you went Tory because you prized Brexit over all else, the flat refurbishment probably isn’t a deal breaker when the opposition has been MIA and may still have a different view to you on Brexit.

I guess the learning is that everybody is maybe realising Brexit is still ongoing.

I guess I see it as remarkable for a couple reasons.

a) it puts a dent in the theory the Tories were 'borrowing' the votes around there for Brexit. I think I said at the time I was sceptical that that was the case and that it confirms we are seeing a realignment of politics, where your social status/class matters much less than how old you are.

b) when I talk about performance I'm talking about 125,000 dead and generally a botched handling of everything bar the vaccine (which the gov't barely touched!!!!), not some spenny wallpaper.

Stop with the age obsession. There’s plenty of young people with a very ‘British’ perspective that made Hartlepool Tory / Brexit happen.

Also, I think there’s a fear Brexit isn’t quite done. As I said people realise there’s still ongoing discussions so they would still want to be represented by a Pro Brexit party during these ongoing talks.

The 125K is intangible and the opposition have been too late going public opposing anything or at least visibly they have.

Find me the polling data that doesn't say age is the biggest factor since 2017 and I'll think about ditching the age obsession.

I agree that age is a major factor but two things.

It is not the only factor.
You obsess about it on many topics and regularly dismiss the opinions of people solely on age grounds.

I’ve just turned 50, my priorities have / do continue to evolve but I am not in a one dimensional downward spiral.

Macro trends =/= personal trends.

Don’t take it personally.

Class isn’t a factor in who you vote for - it’s fairly evenly distributed now.

Education is but arguably that is a function of age

surrey_commuter

rick_chasey said:

morstar said:

rick_chasey said:

morstar said:

rick_chasey said:

A collapse in the labour vote in Hartlepool is noteworthy.

Agree it was big news at the last election.

Right now, given the reasons for the collapse, there is nothing particularly convincing to revert that collapse.

If you went Tory because you prized Brexit over all else, the flat refurbishment probably isn’t a deal breaker when the opposition has been MIA and may still have a different view to you on Brexit.

I guess the learning is that everybody is maybe realising Brexit is still ongoing.

I guess I see it as remarkable for a couple reasons.

a) it puts a dent in the theory the Tories were 'borrowing' the votes around there for Brexit. I think I said at the time I was sceptical that that was the case and that it confirms we are seeing a realignment of politics, where your social status/class matters much less than how old you are.

b) when I talk about performance I'm talking about 125,000 dead and generally a botched handling of everything bar the vaccine (which the gov't barely touched!!!!), not some spenny wallpaper.

Stop with the age obsession. There’s plenty of young people with a very ‘British’ perspective that made Hartlepool Tory / Brexit happen.

Also, I think there’s a fear Brexit isn’t quite done. As I said people realise there’s still ongoing discussions so they would still want to be represented by a Pro Brexit party during these ongoing talks.

The 125K is intangible and the opposition have been too late going public opposing anything or at least visibly they have.

Find me the polling data that doesn't say age is the biggest factor since 2017 and I'll think about ditching the age obsession.

2016 is very limiting and more annoyingly excludes my retort of education

john80

rick_chasey said:

Labour not looking particularly rosey in the elections on Thursday.

Getting spanked in Hartlepool by-election, a previous safe seat. Quite a heavy Brexit vote 5 years ago so continuing that alignment - older town than most too

Remarkable, given what's going on at a national level. Seems performance is irrelevant nowadays.

The problem you have is in understanding that Labour have no answer for a large number of voters to make them want to vote for them. The mixture of fake standing up for the working class whilst they see their incomes and relative wealth collapse is not a good look. So ask yourselve the question with the exception of your average person on the dole who don't vote what in Kier's manifesto would make you vote labour?

rick_chasey

john80 said:

rick_chasey said:

Labour not looking particularly rosey in the elections on Thursday.

Getting spanked in Hartlepool by-election, a previous safe seat. Quite a heavy Brexit vote 5 years ago so continuing that alignment - older town than most too

Remarkable, given what's going on at a national level. Seems performance is irrelevant nowadays.

The problem you have is in understanding that Labour have no answer for a large number of voters to make them want to vote for them. The mixture of fake standing up for the working class whilst they see their incomes and relative wealth collapse is not a good look. So ask yourselve the question with the exception of your average person on the dole who don't vote what in Kier's manifesto would make you vote labour?

The state of the nation after 11 years of Tory government ?

Stevo_666

rick_chasey said:

john80 said:

rick_chasey said:

Labour not looking particularly rosey in the elections on Thursday.

Getting spanked in Hartlepool by-election, a previous safe seat. Quite a heavy Brexit vote 5 years ago so continuing that alignment - older town than most too

Remarkable, given what's going on at a national level. Seems performance is irrelevant nowadays.

The problem you have is in understanding that Labour have no answer for a large number of voters to make them want to vote for them. The mixture of fake standing up for the working class whilst they see their incomes and relative wealth collapse is not a good look. So ask yourselve the question with the exception of your average person on the dole who don't vote what in Kier's manifesto would make you vote labour?

The state of the nation after 11 years of Tory government ?

What if Keir promised to send every pensioner into exile if Labour were elected?

pblakeney

Most voters won't look past "Who'll let me go on holiday this year?"

rick_chasey

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

morstar said:

rick_chasey said:

morstar said:

rick_chasey said:

A collapse in the labour vote in Hartlepool is noteworthy.

Agree it was big news at the last election.

Right now, given the reasons for the collapse, there is nothing particularly convincing to revert that collapse.

If you went Tory because you prized Brexit over all else, the flat refurbishment probably isn’t a deal breaker when the opposition has been MIA and may still have a different view to you on Brexit.

I guess the learning is that everybody is maybe realising Brexit is still ongoing.

I guess I see it as remarkable for a couple reasons.

a) it puts a dent in the theory the Tories were 'borrowing' the votes around there for Brexit. I think I said at the time I was sceptical that that was the case and that it confirms we are seeing a realignment of politics, where your social status/class matters much less than how old you are.

b) when I talk about performance I'm talking about 125,000 dead and generally a botched handling of everything bar the vaccine (which the gov't barely touched!!!!), not some spenny wallpaper.

Stop with the age obsession. There’s plenty of young people with a very ‘British’ perspective that made Hartlepool Tory / Brexit happen.

Also, I think there’s a fear Brexit isn’t quite done. As I said people realise there’s still ongoing discussions so they would still want to be represented by a Pro Brexit party during these ongoing talks.

The 125K is intangible and the opposition have been too late going public opposing anything or at least visibly they have.

Find me the polling data that doesn't say age is the biggest factor since 2017 and I'll think about ditching the age obsession.

2016 is very limiting and more annoyingly excludes my retort of education

Two elections tbf

The Brexit vote is the pivot and the rest of Fleet Street has not really cottoned on to the idea that the needs and wants of retired homeowners are different to working people.

pblakeney

Fairly sure there were retired people before 2017.

shirley_basso

rick_chasey said:

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

morstar said:

rick_chasey said:

morstar said:

rick_chasey said:

A collapse in the labour vote in Hartlepool is noteworthy.

Agree it was big news at the last election.

Right now, given the reasons for the collapse, there is nothing particularly convincing to revert that collapse.

If you went Tory because you prized Brexit over all else, the flat refurbishment probably isn’t a deal breaker when the opposition has been MIA and may still have a different view to you on Brexit.

I guess the learning is that everybody is maybe realising Brexit is still ongoing.

I guess I see it as remarkable for a couple reasons.

a) it puts a dent in the theory the Tories were 'borrowing' the votes around there for Brexit. I think I said at the time I was sceptical that that was the case and that it confirms we are seeing a realignment of politics, where your social status/class matters much less than how old you are.

b) when I talk about performance I'm talking about 125,000 dead and generally a botched handling of everything bar the vaccine (which the gov't barely touched!!!!), not some spenny wallpaper.

Stop with the age obsession. There’s plenty of young people with a very ‘British’ perspective that made Hartlepool Tory / Brexit happen.

Also, I think there’s a fear Brexit isn’t quite done. As I said people realise there’s still ongoing discussions so they would still want to be represented by a Pro Brexit party during these ongoing talks.

The 125K is intangible and the opposition have been too late going public opposing anything or at least visibly they have.

Find me the polling data that doesn't say age is the biggest factor since 2017 and I'll think about ditching the age obsession.

2016 is very limiting and more annoyingly excludes my retort of education

Two elections tbf

The Brexit vote is the pivot and the rest of Fleet Street has not really cottoned on to the idea that the needs and wants of retired homeowners are different to working people.

Yes they have. They know exactly who their core demographic are which is why they're full of saga ads.

surrey_commuter

john80 said:

rick_chasey said:

Labour not looking particularly rosey in the elections on Thursday.

Getting spanked in Hartlepool by-election, a previous safe seat. Quite a heavy Brexit vote 5 years ago so continuing that alignment - older town than most too

Remarkable, given what's going on at a national level. Seems performance is irrelevant nowadays.

The problem you have is in understanding that Labour have no answer for a large number of voters to make them want to vote for them. The mixture of fake standing up for the working class whilst they see their incomes and relative wealth collapse is not a good look. So ask yourselve the question with the exception of your average person on the dole who don't vote what in Kier's manifesto would make you vote labour?

I do struggle with your aversion to commas I was going to suggest that I have high opinion of myself and could not tell you what is in Keir’s manifesto, then it dawned on me that he has not had the need to write one.

If I was him I would promise double whatever Boris does, so instead of one Freeport go for two etc

pblakeney

Surely he can promise whatever he wants. The money tree argument is blown out of the water now. Too late though, should have started 6 months ago.

tailwindhome

john80 said:

rick_chasey said:

Labour not looking particularly rosey in the elections on Thursday.

Getting spanked in Hartlepool by-election, a previous safe seat. Quite a heavy Brexit vote 5 years ago so continuing that alignment - older town than most too

Remarkable, given what's going on at a national level. Seems performance is irrelevant nowadays.

The problem you have is in understanding that Labour have no answer for a large number of voters to make them want to vote for them. The mixture of fake standing up for the working class whilst they see their incomes and relative wealth collapse is not a good look. So ask yourselve the question with the exception of your average person on the dole who don't vote what in Kier's manifesto would make you vote labour?

That Boris has convinced people that the last decade of Conservative government had nothing to do with him never ceases to astound