**spoiler** Paris - Roubaix 2018

kingstongraham

SpecialGuestStar wrote:

On_What wrote:

Hardly a great Roubaix, it had the potential with the moist secteurs but sadly didn't live up to expectation for me. Sagan either rode the race of his life or everyone backed off and didn't chase as hard as they could have. I dare say if Van Aert hadn't had that unlucky puncture it would have been him, Terpstra and maybe Van Marcke chasing down the two ahead, and with a little more purpose. Dillier rode well, but he should have started missing turns towards the end, they had the gap by then anyway.

I think the consensus is that the winner had already been decided by then - Dillier got a cobble for second and that was what was on the cards

I think he was right to work until it was guaranteed they would stay away (maybe 8km to go?) but after that he might have improved his chances by putting in a bit less effort, but still. Finishing on the podium from the early break is an incredible ride.

richard_t._biscuit

Cal_Stewart wrote:

...
I just get the feeling that Sagan only wins when he can make it a who’s the strongest competition as soon as tactics plays a part he struggles

Making it a who’s the strongest competition requires strong tactics, especially when you're relatively isolated against strong teams. Lifting from a observation in a comment on this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=COooTkEAFdY

• GVA attacks explosively and a few riders inc. Sagan and a teammate but no QS riders follow
• 0:54 Sagan takes a look himself and notices the situation
• He radios and then attacks over the top while QS are briefly distanced and can't immediately respond
• Burghardt and GVA (for very different reasons) baulk any immediate response from the front group
• (as it happens) Race over.

TheBigBean

The way Dillier rode maximised the value of his second place. He certainly won't be a reserve starter next year.

bobmcstuff

KingstonGraham wrote:

SpecialGuestStar wrote:

On_What wrote:

Hardly a great Roubaix, it had the potential with the moist secteurs but sadly didn't live up to expectation for me. Sagan either rode the race of his life or everyone backed off and didn't chase as hard as they could have. I dare say if Van Aert hadn't had that unlucky puncture it would have been him, Terpstra and maybe Van Marcke chasing down the two ahead, and with a little more purpose. Dillier rode well, but he should have started missing turns towards the end, they had the gap by then anyway.

I think the consensus is that the winner had already been decided by then - Dillier got a cobble for second and that was what was on the cards

I think he was right to work until it was guaranteed they would stay away (maybe 8km to go?) but after that he might have improved his chances by putting in a bit less effort, but still. Finishing on the podium from the early break is an incredible ride.

Agreed, I don't think it would necessarily have changed the result, but if he had been trying to win he didn't seem to go about it the right way - I was very surprised when he went to the front for one last turn when they were right on the velodrome. Leading Sagan onto the track doesn't seem like the best choice! Even if Sagan still probably could have won from the front.

I suppose if you're away with Sagan like that then you know what the score is, and there was no shame for Dillier in riding for second here - a great result for him.

I'd give the race a 4/10. Didn't do much for me.

tailwindhome

How much of a factor at PR was Sagan's "I'll do it all myself then....oh look you've caught me, I'm obviously not in that good form" attack at Flanders

RichN95.

Dillier had been in the break for 220km. I don't think a couple missed pulls would have made any difference.

tailwindhome

Was there an update on the Movistar rider who went down very hard early in the race?

shirley_basso

Mostly unhurt I think. Saw on Instagram earlier

onyourright

Who’s to say Dillier wasn’t taking soft pulls toward the end?

That’s how it looked to me. Consider that the gap came down each time he pulled, whereas the gap went up each time Sagan pulled. And yet despite this apparent weakness on Dillier’s part, Sagan couldn’t drop him when he tried on the last bit of cobbles. And when Sagan sprinted, Dillier immediately jumped on his wheel.

I think he went into that velodrome believing in his chances. And Sagan admitted he was nervous in a post-race interview, partly because he’d started to get cramps. The idea that they arranged for Sagan to win is preposterous, even though that’s very likely what both imagined would happen when they started working together in earnest. But when Sagan couldn’t drop him and they entered the velodrome together, all bets were off. Sagan’s got a history of losing sprints when he’s wrecked.

kingstongraham

OnYourRight wrote:

The idea that they arranged for Sagan to win is preposterous

Has anyone suggested that?

knedlicky

OnYourRight wrote:

I think he (Dillier) went into that velodrome believing in his chances.

Afterwards Dillier said he still hoped for victory right till the end but found he couldn't match Sagan's acceleration on the last lap. He also said he knew he would have to work until close to the finish because otherwise he might have only ended up with 5th or 6th.

It was reported in Swiss newspapers that the two agreed to work together when, with 20 km to go, Sagan thought Dillier looked tired, however when he tried to shake Dillier off (as some posters have mentioned noticing), Sagan found it didn't come about.
Maybe they agreed Sagan would mostly lead on the cobbles, Dillier doing proportionally more on the asphalt (as that is how it looked).

Afterwards Dillier also said that right from the off it was his intention to get in a break and hope the break lasted, and that the hardest part of the race for him was working with the others to get the eventual break clear
(although I would have said him managing to stay upright and still follow, as Sagan led over the Carrefour de l'Arbre pave, actually looked the hardest bit for him).

rick_chasey

Always surprised the break isn't contested harder.

There's always handful who make it into the finale who would have never been there otherwise.

Especially with a tailwind.

knedlicky

TailWindHome wrote:

Was there an update on the Movistar rider who went down very hard early in the race?

If you mean Oliveira (who somersaulted on to the grass as they went along a normal stretch of road before the first pave), I heard yesterday that he broke his left collarbone.
I also heard it said that he went off the asphalt in the first place because for a moment he wasn't holding his bars.
Today it's reported he has a double fracture in said collarbone.

mididoctors

Rick Chasey wrote:

Always surprised the break isn't contested harder.

There's always handful who make it into the finale who would have never been there otherwise.

Especially with a tailwind.

took a while to get going but there is a degree of double double bluff going on.

"being in the break is so obvious a move we/I will not contribute to chasing the first breaks down because everyone will be keen to get into it but instead get into the genuine latter one after these early breaks are brought back"

"oh shit they have gone"

TheBigBean

knedlicky wrote:

Maybe they agreed Sagan would mostly lead on the cobbles, Dillier doing proportionally more on the asphalt (as that is how it looked).

If I was Sagan, I wouldn't have trusted someone else to lead on the cobbles. Leading reduces the risk of crashing.

mididoctors

Dillier was completely on the limit following sagan on the cobbles. nearly stacked it several times. sheer head down grit kept him hanging on. very strong and measured ride to boot. I can understand sagan being nervous but from a spectator POV Dillier had 2nd place written all over him.

milton50

OnYourRight wrote:

Who’s to say Dillier wasn’t taking soft pulls toward the end?

That’s how it looked to me. Consider that the gap came down each time he pulled, whereas the gap went up each time Sagan pulled.

Yeh, they had the speedometer on screen a few times when Dillier went through for a turn and the speed dropped 3-4kph straight away. I'm pretty sure he was on his limit rather than soft pedalling though!

bobmcstuff

https://video.eurosport.co.uk/cycling/p ... ideo.shtml

Quite interesting dissection from Cosmo

peteco

A bit late to this thread, but we were in the area this weekend, and managed to get to Carrefour de l'arbre for the race. All I can say is bloody hell Sagan and Dillier went through fast. Even the chasers seemed slow by comparison, and there were riders going through 10-15 mins after Sagan had won - they looked knackered.

Fantastic atmosphere on the pave - no doubt the good weather helped.

Definitely back next year.

Pete

peteco

Here he is:

No_Ta_Doctor

Terpstra checking Sagan's tyre pressure after the race :-D

https://www.instagram.com/p/BhUseS_F6sP/?explore=true

ocdupalais

No tA Doctor wrote:

Terpstra checking Sagan's tyre pressure after the race :-D

https://www.instagram.com/p/BhUseS_F6sP/?explore=true

That is fabulous!

Two weeks ago Terpstra was a massive tosspot: then he wins Flanders like he did and makes some respectful and complimentary comments about Sagan’s P-R, and now I’m a fan! Either I’m fickle or he was being under represented in the media...

m.r.m.

Think it's the age old issue of some people having star power and being darlings of the media and others not getting their due. Never has much rhyme or reason.

Also, cyclists and their (our) outfits (even pro's) look utterly horrendous off the bike.

ocdupalais

peteco wrote:

Here he is:

Your mate’s got a lovely back - like Sagan’s; too upright to ever win a TT or a classic...

rick_chasey

On behalf of PR purists I'm upset Sagan has won, not gonna lie.

shirley_basso

What's a PR purist?

Sagan was built for it and won it in about as good a way as you could wish for.

Well timed attack and held off the favourites who were working together. Great RVV sandbagging!

rick_chasey

Shirley Basso wrote:

What's a PR purist?

Sagan was built for it and won it in about as good a way as you could wish for.

Well timed attack and held off the favourites who were working together. Great RVV sandbagging!

Tongue in cheek way of saying he looks too much like a mountain biker on his bike.

shirley_basso

When you're the BORA coach, have words

rick_chasey

Yeah.

You do feel generally in terms of talent in these kind of races there's

Sagan
















and then everyone else. The only thing that evens it up is the fact he's basically a 3 man team with Oss him and Burghardt.

So he doesn't need to iron out the creases.

shirley_basso

I would say terpstra should have won it but for tactics, wrong place, wrong time when Sagan attached.

He was very gracious in defeat as well I might add.