Velo South 2018

ugo.santalucia

Again,

you want to point fingers, but really I can't make any decisio.

I thought a revised course would be the most obvious outcome. A cancellation with refund is very generous of them, I am not quite sure how they are going to be able to afford it. If they all took the money, that would be well over a million. I am sure they have spent a big part of it to make it happen, I doubt their balance sheet can afford to lose (nearly) a million... they are not Tesco.
If 20% of entrants take the money, then maybe that could be sustainable, with a view to redirect the remaining 80% to some other event.

Then again, maybe it's all covered by insurance and they won't lose a penny

It's big sxxt for them and looking at the forecast now, I think it could have gone ahead, maybe with minor changes. I don't know about BB forecast, I only look at the Metoffice... is BB a more reliable source?

kingrollo

ugo.santalucia wrote:

Again,

you want to point fingers, but really I can't make any decisio.

I thought a revised course would be the most obvious outcome. A cancellation with refund is very generous of them, I am not quite sure how they are going to be able to afford it. If they all took the money, that would be well over a million. I am sure they have spent a big part of it to make it happen, I doubt their balance sheet can afford to lose (nearly) a million... they are not Tesco.
If 20% of entrants take the money, then maybe that could be sustainable, with a view to redirect the remaining 80% to some other event.

Then again, maybe it's all covered by insurance and they won't lose a penny

It's big sxxt for them and looking at the forecast now, I think it could have gone ahead, maybe with minor changes. I don't know about BB forecast, I only look at the Metoffice... is BB a more reliable source?

i meant the link bb had posted a couple of posts back.

every other poster on this thread is saying its the correct decision ....only you are saying they have made the wrong call.

ugo.santalucia

there is no right or wrong decision... either way there are risks... and we will never know what would happen had they not cancelled.

IME I don't see heavy rain and moderate wind on closed roads with 6-7K people (an estimate) on the road as riskier than dry roads with 15 K people on the road.
IF the wind was to gust at 50 mph then it's a different matter... but right now I see 30-35 mph and only in the afternoon, most people would have been home by then

imposter2.0

Bottom briquettes wrote:

The storm that’s coming through for tomorrow does look pretty extreme.

Yeah, steady rain and 12mph winds according to the forecast. How on earth will anyone survive... :roll:

ugo.santalucia

Imposter wrote:

How on earth will anyone survive... :roll:

Don't underestimate the impact... according to the Metoffice

What to expect
Spray and flooding on roads probably making journey times longer
Some delays to road, rail, air and ferry transport are likely

imposter2.0

ugo.santalucia wrote:

Imposter wrote:

How on earth will anyone survive... :roll:

Don't underestimate the impact... according to the Metoffice

What to expect
Spray and flooding on roads probably making journey times longer
Some delays to road, rail, air and ferry transport are likely

Yep - it's going to be wet, not unlike many other autumn days in the UK. Hardly the extreme 'post 1987' apocalypse that Bottom-Muncher's buddy was predicting...

gavinbay

Forecast is still all over the place - BBC TV forecast just now (20:00) had wind speeds of 45mph and 50mph over parts of the South near to "Coasts" which is pretty bizarre as the winds are N / NNW and you'd not expect wind from that direction to be at their peak on the South Coast as winds are traveling overland - for sure a couple of miles out to sea maybe.

As you can see from the chart for 12:00 tomorrow it's a very different scenario from a few days ago however that's a myriad of fronts tracking through and will be thoroughly unpleasant at times, and then by mid afternoon that cold front will bring the chill NW'ly and sunshine.

For me the fair weather cyclist* that I am, I'll be not venturing out.



*I do cold but not wet n'windy

shipley

GavinBay wrote:

Totally agree with all the above.

If closing roads you can't do it for 9.5hrs - The Etape du Tour manages similar numbers and major roads are closed for only 2.5hrs with the broom wagon picking up stragglers - apart from the final climbs that is.

There should be more thought into the route and the subsequent hours that roads needs to be closed.

Tomorrow is still looking foul and it's the weather later today through the night that would have been problematical for the event.

And as a major Sods Law goes, weather for all next week is looking glorious all be it with a fresh breeze at times, which is good as I had a "Bike Fit" with Simon Macnamara of South Downs Bikes mid week and will be interesting to see if it sorts problems out which have been exasperated this week kiting in the superb conditions we've had all week.

Mate going big

Great pic - is that taken at Sea Lane ? Love watching you guys when I’ve ridden down there.

Lovely weather for next week so may see you out there in the week - watch out for the locals !!!

ugo.santalucia

Predictably, the weather warning has been lifted...

RossoCorso34

It's annoying, but the right decision was made I think

ugo.santalucia

theboyfold wrote:

It's annoying, but the right decision was made I think

Time will tell

N0bodyOfTheGoat

Looks like the heavy rain stops around 1300 and the wind isn't too bad, will almost certainly head out this afternoon.

gavinbay

Well here at Worthing it's fecking grim and have not seen even one runner* this morning along the prom, let alone a bike braving the conditions.

Temp as you can see is 10.4 but combine that with the N'ly wind and wind chill is 7.6.

So I'd guess that if the event was not cancelled there would have been a huge drop out, or many packing on the course and then trying to find there way back to HQ

Current Weather at : 8:20
Date 23/09/18
Wind N
5 min average top wind speed: 16.0
10 min average top wind speed: 17.0
Highest Gust past 24hrs: 17.0 at 8:10
Wind Chill: 7.6 °C
Temperature: 10.4 °C

*take that back as I was typing this, one woman in shorts, and another guy!

ugo.santalucia

GavinBay wrote:

Well here at Worthing it's ******* grim and have not seen even one runner* this morning along the prom, let alone a bike braving the conditions.

Temp as you can see is 10.4 but combine that with the N'ly wind and wind chill is 7.6.

So I'd guess that if the event was not cancelled there would have been a huge drop out, or many packing on the course and then trying to find there way back to HQ

I think there is a difference between grim and dangerous. It looks grim, no doubt. It seems to me the organisers were hasty to cancel, without even trying for a plan B (shortened route) almost as if it was a relief, after no doubts months of tensions with the locals.
It could well be that they paid good money for a cancellation insurance and they took the opportunity to get out of that mess, as soon as they got one.
I read the council has announced that they will review their support to the event, which to me reads as "no way this is going ahead next year"

slowbike

It’s pretty yucky out there now - rather glad we’re not riding

Loads of standing water from yesterday’s rain - would’ve made it a bit dodgy for large groups

gavinbay

ugo.santalucia wrote:

.....It seems to me the organisers were hasty to cancel, without even trying for a plan B (shortened route) almost as if it was a relief, after no doubts months of tensions with the locals.....

With an event such as this there are many third party contractors that are involved and necessary logistics, who would not be paid till after the event - and hence would probably not bother showing up given the conditions forecast (not ordering supplies for the day etc) and even more so given the actual conditions on the day like we currently have.

It is distinctly foul and would have been stupid to run the event with the heavy rain now falling with so many cyclists in narrow country lanes with some steep descents / gravel etc.

You might be able to handle the conditions but the organisers have to think about more main stream punters.

PS Still not seen a bike this morning, don't think roads will dry out today even with the sunshine post 14:30

Wind picking up and hence wind chill dropping
Current Weather at : 9:17
Date 23/09/18
Wind N
5 min average top wind speed: 21.0
10 min average top wind speed: 21.0
Highest Gust past 24hrs: 21.0 at 8:43
Wind Chill: 6.7 °C
Pressure: 1012.2 Rising Slowly
Temperature: 10.1 °C

ugo.santalucia

GavinBay wrote:

ugo.santalucia wrote:

.....It seems to me the organisers were hasty to cancel, without even trying for a plan B (shortened route) almost as if it was a relief, after no doubts months of tensions with the locals.....

With an event such as this there are many third party contractors that are involved and necessary logistics, who would not be paid till after the event - and hence would probably not bother showing up given the conditions forecast (not ordering supplies for the day etc) and even more so given the actual conditions on the day like we currently have.

It is distinctly foul and would have been stupid to run the event with the heavy rain now falling with so many cyclists in narrow country lanes with some steep descents / gravel etc.

You might be able to handle the conditions but the organisers have to think about more main stream punters.

It's all true and yet it's not the sole event racking up those numbers. I can't recall a Marmotte or a Maratona dle Dolomites or a Tour of Flanders being cancelled for bad weather, of which there has been plenty over the years. And of course bad weather in the mountains is a different beast and potentially much more dangerous.

There might be some difference in the liability here in the UK as compared to mainland Europe

gavinbay

ugo.santalucia wrote:

..... I can't recall a Marmotte or a Maratona dle Dolomites or a Tour of Flanders being cancelled for bad weather, of which there has been plenty over the years. And of course bad weather in the mountains is a different beast and potentially much more dangerous.

There might be some difference in the liability here in the UK as compared to mainland Europe

Two summers ago on Dutch week on ADH final day when many are riding it as many times as possible

https://www.opgevenisgeenoptie.nl/in-english and it's crazy busy - it was classic summer weather then a massive afternoon thunderstorm followed by a vicious cold front and the mountain had to be evacuated with cyclists suffering from hyperthermia.

With the Etape it tends to be the opposite, well at least the three / four I've done in that it's the heat that's the killer blow, but then they have the broom wagon(s) to sweep the punters up.

Though the first one I did starting in Albertville it was chucking it down, so much so that they estimated a third of the field did not start, six hours later we were battling temps in the Modane of 34 +

One my mate did the Pyrenees Etape five or so years ago which was halted because of the intense cold, and again riders evacuated.

So for these Alpine events they do have procedures in place, but do not cancel pre the event.

ugo.santalucia

GavinBay wrote:

So for these Alpine events they do have procedures in place, but do not cancel pre the event.

... or in other words they are not chancers and know what they are doing? :roll:

RossoCorso34

ugo.santalucia wrote:

GavinBay wrote:

So for these Alpine events they do have procedures in place, but do not cancel pre the event.

... or in other words they are not chancers and know what they are doing? :roll:

Are you this rampantly negative about everything or just this?

kingrollo

theboyfold wrote:

ugo.santalucia wrote:

GavinBay wrote:

So for these Alpine events they do have procedures in place, but do not cancel pre the event.

... or in other words they are not chancers and know what they are doing? :roll:

Are you this rampantly negative about everything or just this?

hes not negative. he just knows everything about everything ....and of course is a much better cyclist than anyone else.....quite sad really.

fat_cat

A heads up to check your emails people.

You need to fill in a form for a refund. There’s an option to transfer to Velo Birmingham 2019 or donate to charity too.

RossoCorso34

Fat Cat wrote:

A heads up to check your emails people.

You need to fill in a form for a refund. There’s an option to transfer to Velo Birmingham 2019 or donate to charity too.

Going to transfer to Birmingham as will the guys I was due to ride with.

lettingthedaysgoby

I’ve gone for a refund, I’ll be doing the Birmingham one if it happens but just could do with the funds this month as I’m skint Plus I won’t need fast track for that as I live there so going to register on the Saturday isn’t as much of a pain.

Bottom briquettes

Oh well, the refund is on it’s way.

imposter2.0

Hope everyone survived the 'great storm of 2018'..?? Worse than 1987 apparently..

dannbodge

Refund for me too. Put towards some new kit.

It's bloody lovely down here this afternoon. Bright sunshine, no clouds and sod all wind now.
Was bloody miserable this morning though.

mrfpb

Imposter wrote:

Hope everyone survived the 'great storm of 2018'..?? Worse than 1987 apparently..

I "foolishly" cycled to work this morning in the freezing 10° cold. Got wet.
I'll have similar temps going home this evening but no rain.

The rest of the week will be colder; 2° some mornings.

I have to admit I would not have cycled in if it had been very windy as well as cold and wet..
I'd have ridden a sportive today if it been looki g forward to go it for months. I only sign up for one a year, so it have been gutted if it was cancelled.

ugo.santalucia

Dannbodge wrote:

Refund for me too. Put towards some new kit.

It's bloody lovely down here this afternoon. Bright sunshine, no clouds and sod all wind now.
Was bloody miserable this morning though.

Beautiful autumnal afternoon in the Midlands... 8)

https://www.strava.com/activities/1860755805

Bottom briquettes

ugo.santalucia wrote:

Dannbodge wrote:

Refund for me too. Put towards some new kit.

It's bloody lovely down here this afternoon. Bright sunshine, no clouds and sod all wind now.
Was bloody miserable this morning though.

Beautiful autumnal afternoon in the Midlands... 8)

https://www.strava.com/activities/1860755805

It’s lovely down here now. I’m out on a short ride.