Poo tin... Put@in...

First.Aspect

TheBigBean said:

An important part of the Crimea question is determining what its residents would like to do.

In any region already occupied, 100% of the electorate will vote to join the Russian Federation.

tailwindhome

TheBigBean said:

An important part of the Crimea question is determining what its residents would like to do.

Send him a copy of the GFA

Dorset_Boy

Ukraine's foreign minister is reportedly due to meet Lavarov in Turkey on Thursday.

Stevo_666

pangolin said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-60506565

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60250678

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19943876.boris-johnson-accused-misleading-commons-sanctioning-chelsea-owner/

At some point the question becomes why do you believe them? These are just since Feb and don't even include the claim to have sanctioned 100 individuals in a week, which later turned out to be 15.

Still no evidence to counter those specific stats.

kingstonian

First.Aspect said:

pblakeney said:

johngti said:

pblakeney said:

rick_chasey said:

Ooof. What would you do if you’re Zelensky? Take it?

I think Zelensky would and should take it however reluctantly. If it was honest.
Do I trust it? Not a snowflakes chance in hell. Biggest issue is the first point. Indicates future problems.

I’d be thinking that, if accepted and honest then it’s over, we can start rebuilding. If it’s in bad faith then the case for further intervention becomes overwhelming. Which scares me, if I’m honest, but something has to give and Putin needs a way out.

I hope you are right.
I think you are wrong. Putin is not looking for a way out.

I think he probably is looking for a way out. Regardless of how brutal he's willing to be, he still can't win this. He doesn't have enough people or equipment, and in a few months the effects of sanctions will not be hypothetical.

I expect he thought (or was told by his military leaders) this would be a very brief skirmish in Ukraine with very little resistance, but they met a much more resolute opponent. Twelve days after first crossing the border Putin is seeing the army making very slow gains, soldiers and airmen being picked off, Anti war protests in 50 cities across Russia, thousands of protesters every day being detained. The Rouble is screwed, their stock market is still closed, hundreds of billions of dollars have been seized. He needs and wants a way out, I’m sure.

pblakeney

First.Aspect said:

pblakeney said:

johngti said:

pblakeney said:

rick_chasey said:

Ooof. What would you do if you’re Zelensky? Take it?

I think Zelensky would and should take it however reluctantly. If it was honest.
Do I trust it? Not a snowflakes chance in hell. Biggest issue is the first point. Indicates future problems.

I’d be thinking that, if accepted and honest then it’s over, we can start rebuilding. If it’s in bad faith then the case for further intervention becomes overwhelming. Which scares me, if I’m honest, but something has to give and Putin needs a way out.

I hope you are right.
I think you are wrong. Putin is not looking for a way out.

I think he probably is looking for a way out. Regardless of how brutal he's willing to be, he still can't win this. He doesn't have enough people or equipment, and in a few months the effects of sanctions will not be hypothetical.

Time will tell.
A few months is literally a lifetime for thousands.

TheBigBean

tailwindhome said:

TheBigBean said:

An important part of the Crimea question is determining what its residents would like to do.

Send him a copy of the GFA

Sure. The UK is a world leader when it comes to self-determination.

First.Aspect

kingstonian said:

First.Aspect said:

pblakeney said:

johngti said:

pblakeney said:

rick_chasey said:

Ooof. What would you do if you’re Zelensky? Take it?

I think Zelensky would and should take it however reluctantly. If it was honest.
Do I trust it? Not a snowflakes chance in hell. Biggest issue is the first point. Indicates future problems.

I’d be thinking that, if accepted and honest then it’s over, we can start rebuilding. If it’s in bad faith then the case for further intervention becomes overwhelming. Which scares me, if I’m honest, but something has to give and Putin needs a way out.

I hope you are right.
I think you are wrong. Putin is not looking for a way out.

I think he probably is looking for a way out. Regardless of how brutal he's willing to be, he still can't win this. He doesn't have enough people or equipment, and in a few months the effects of sanctions will not be hypothetical.

I expect he thought (or was told by his military leaders) this would be a very brief skirmish in Ukraine with very little resistance, but they met a much more resolute opponent. Twelve days after first crossing the border Putin is seeing the army making very slow gains, soldiers and airmen being picked off, Anti war protests in 50 cities across Russia, thousands of protesters every day being detained. The Rouble is screwed, their stock market is still closed, hundreds of billions of dollars have been seized. He needs and wants a way out, I’m sure.

Question is, if they agreed Crimea and two small breakaway regions today, what would the west do about sanctions?

You would hope some continuing reticence on reliance on Russia, that it would still be seen as a stinky place for Western companies to invest and some ongoing sanctions so he's not "rewarded" for mass murder. But I bet you it would all be part of the negotiations.

It's a moot point be abuse the negotiations are a sham anyway.

ballysmate

First.Aspect said:

kingstonian said:

First.Aspect said:

pblakeney said:

johngti said:

pblakeney said:

rick_chasey said:

Ooof. What would you do if you’re Zelensky? Take it?

I think Zelensky would and should take it however reluctantly. If it was honest.
Do I trust it? Not a snowflakes chance in hell. Biggest issue is the first point. Indicates future problems.

I’d be thinking that, if accepted and honest then it’s over, we can start rebuilding. If it’s in bad faith then the case for further intervention becomes overwhelming. Which scares me, if I’m honest, but something has to give and Putin needs a way out.

I hope you are right.
I think you are wrong. Putin is not looking for a way out.

I think he probably is looking for a way out. Regardless of how brutal he's willing to be, he still can't win this. He doesn't have enough people or equipment, and in a few months the effects of sanctions will not be hypothetical.

I expect he thought (or was told by his military leaders) this would be a very brief skirmish in Ukraine with very little resistance, but they met a much more resolute opponent. Twelve days after first crossing the border Putin is seeing the army making very slow gains, soldiers and airmen being picked off, Anti war protests in 50 cities across Russia, thousands of protesters every day being detained. The Rouble is screwed, their stock market is still closed, hundreds of billions of dollars have been seized. He needs and wants a way out, I’m sure.

Question is, if they agreed Crimea and two small breakaway regions today, what would the west do about sanctions?

You would hope some continuing reticence on reliance on Russia, that it would still be seen as a stinky place for Western companies to invest and some ongoing sanctions so he's not "rewarded" for mass murder. But I bet you it would all be part of the negotiations.

It's a moot point be abuse the negotiations are a sham anyway.

Watched an interview with an ex head of MI6. He said that sanctions take a loooong time to achieve their aim.
Their lifting tends to be a gradual process, whereby they are incrementally lifted as a reward for compliance.

First.Aspect

First.Aspect said:

kingstonian said:

First.Aspect said:

pblakeney said:

johngti said:

pblakeney said:

rick_chasey said:

Ooof. What would you do if you’re Zelensky? Take it?

I think Zelensky would and should take it however reluctantly. If it was honest.
Do I trust it? Not a snowflakes chance in hell. Biggest issue is the first point. Indicates future problems.

I’d be thinking that, if accepted and honest then it’s over, we can start rebuilding. If it’s in bad faith then the case for further intervention becomes overwhelming. Which scares me, if I’m honest, but something has to give and Putin needs a way out.

I hope you are right.
I think you are wrong. Putin is not looking for a way out.

I think he probably is looking for a way out. Regardless of how brutal he's willing to be, he still can't win this. He doesn't have enough people or equipment, and in a few months the effects of sanctions will not be hypothetical.

I expect he thought (or was told by his military leaders) this would be a very brief skirmish in Ukraine with very little resistance, but they met a much more resolute opponent. Twelve days after first crossing the border Putin is seeing the army making very slow gains, soldiers and airmen being picked off, Anti war protests in 50 cities across Russia, thousands of protesters every day being detained. The Rouble is screwed, their stock market is still closed, hundreds of billions of dollars have been seized. He needs and wants a way out, I’m sure.

Question is, if they agreed Crimea and two small breakaway regions today, what would the west do about sanctions?

You would hope some continuing reticence on reliance on Russia, that it would still be seen as a stinky place for Western companies to invest and some ongoing sanctions so he's not "rewarded" for mass murder. But I bet you it would all be part of the negotiations.

It's a moot point be abuse the negotiations are a sham anyway.

How did because get autocorrected to be abuse?

john80

This whole war reeks of misdirection that Paul Daniels would be proud of. Russia is a country of about 140 million people and has the GDP just above that of Spain. If Spain had Russia's oil and gas reserves and the farming capacity would Spain's GDP not be a lot better.

Apart from a minority that are not overly educated, don't travel or are inquisitive mentally there is no support for Putin. Freedom of expression is gone in Russia as has their education and healthcare system. It is just a massively corrupt gangster country filled with thieves and jokers at the top. The general population would not likely have voted Putin in again and if he did get in it would be through massive fraud at the next election.

He is going to run out of money to fund this campaign and like the soviet union before him that will be the collapse of his empire. How the West engineers a shift change from an ideological driven state based mainly of fear of the West to a sensible state with good governance is anyone's guess. We have been trying to make Russia more western since the end of of the soviet union but without much success.

pangolin

.

First.Aspect said:

First.Aspect said:

kingstonian said:

First.Aspect said:

pblakeney said:

johngti said:

pblakeney said:

rick_chasey said:

Ooof. What would you do if you’re Zelensky? Take it?

I think Zelensky would and should take it however reluctantly. If it was honest.
Do I trust it? Not a snowflakes chance in hell. Biggest issue is the first point. Indicates future problems.

I’d be thinking that, if accepted and honest then it’s over, we can start rebuilding. If it’s in bad faith then the case for further intervention becomes overwhelming. Which scares me, if I’m honest, but something has to give and Putin needs a way out.

I hope you are right.
I think you are wrong. Putin is not looking for a way out.

I think he probably is looking for a way out. Regardless of how brutal he's willing to be, he still can't win this. He doesn't have enough people or equipment, and in a few months the effects of sanctions will not be hypothetical.

I expect he thought (or was told by his military leaders) this would be a very brief skirmish in Ukraine with very little resistance, but they met a much more resolute opponent. Twelve days after first crossing the border Putin is seeing the army making very slow gains, soldiers and airmen being picked off, Anti war protests in 50 cities across Russia, thousands of protesters every day being detained. The Rouble is screwed, their stock market is still closed, hundreds of billions of dollars have been seized. He needs and wants a way out, I’m sure.

Question is, if they agreed Crimea and two small breakaway regions today, what would the west do about sanctions?

You would hope some continuing reticence on reliance on Russia, that it would still be seen as a stinky place for Western companies to invest and some ongoing sanctions so he's not "rewarded" for mass murder. But I bet you it would all be part of the negotiations.

It's a moot point be abuse the negotiations are a sham anyway.

How did because get autocorrected to be abuse?

be abuse you put a space in the middle.

pblakeney

john80 said:

This whole war reeks of misdirection…

Just checking I understand your post correctly.
What is happening is misdirection because Russia’s GDP is low?
That’s a “different” interpretation.

rjsterry

ballysmate said:

rick_chasey said:

ballysmate said:

surrey_commuter said:

It has been mentioned on here before that we are not representative of the general population but it does need saying that the majority of people live hand to mouth. In a months time they could find their unavoidable costs (power, NI, Council Tax, travel) increasing by £1-200 a month. I am not convinced these people will share the enthusiasm for paying the price of punishing Putin.

You may be right. As I mentioned in the Tory thread, Putin is right, people in the west are soft.
During covid for instance, some people viewed the fact that they couldn't get a week drinking and fighting in Benidorm as being a price too high.

People are soft because they can't afford to both heat their homes AND eat?

What on earth?

During warfare that is a consequence. Putin is right, we in the west don't have the belly for it.

Down with the Bourgeoisie! Thank you Comrade Bally.

Funny how the people who insist that Britons need to stop feeling bad about themselves and take pride in their country are also convinced that the same country is populated by a bunch of effete wasters that couldn't stand up to a stiff breeze.

john80

Just checking I understand your post correctly.

Thought I would do a bit of quote cropping for no particular reason. Go and read it again.

pblakeney

No thanks.

ballysmate

rjsterry said:

ballysmate said:

rick_chasey said:

ballysmate said:

surrey_commuter said:

It has been mentioned on here before that we are not representative of the general population but it does need saying that the majority of people live hand to mouth. In a months time they could find their unavoidable costs (power, NI, Council Tax, travel) increasing by £1-200 a month. I am not convinced these people will share the enthusiasm for paying the price of punishing Putin.

You may be right. As I mentioned in the Tory thread, Putin is right, people in the west are soft.
During covid for instance, some people viewed the fact that they couldn't get a week drinking and fighting in Benidorm as being a price too high.

People are soft because they can't afford to both heat their homes AND eat?

What on earth?

During warfare that is a consequence. Putin is right, we in the west don't have the belly for it.

Down with the Bourgeoisie! Thank you Comrade Bally.

Funny how the people who insist that Britons need to stop feeling bad about themselves and take pride in their country are also convinced that the same country is populated by a bunch of effete wasters that couldn't stand up to a stiff breeze.

If that is a reference to the (still going, I see) Brexit thread, then yes, we should stop feeling sorry for ourselves, we are where we are at, like it or not. Is that thread still populated by the Jim Bowen "Here's what you could have won" types?

But that aside, I can't see the resilience in the people of the west, not just the UK, to suffer the hardships that would be necessary to prosecute this economic war, never mind military conflict, to its conclusion.

shirley_basso

I guess they don't really have much of a choice. The gov't will do what it does.

tailwindhome

Meanwhile, someone in Dublin, presumably unbothered by the promotion of national stereotypes, has crashed a van full of communion wine through the gates of the Russian embassy

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1500865130615214084?t=laFe-DsB3xBeXI4sLagpRg&s=19

Pross

Judging by all the graffiti it doesn't look like the Garda do a particularly good protection job there at the best of times!

tailwindhome

Pross said:

Judging by all the graffiti it doesn't look like the Garda do a particularly good protection job there at the best of times!

I think those are recent additions

pblakeney

tailwindhome said:

Meanwhile, someone in Dublin, presumably unbothered by the promotion of national stereotypes, has crashed a van full of communion wine through the gates of the Russian embassy

Free wine!
Some people are just never happy.

DeVlaeminck

"Though we're apart
You're part of me still".

Very prescient, if only we'd known that for him this was no love song.


https://youtu.be/ekeq4szDmJo

rjsterry

ballysmate said:

rjsterry said:

ballysmate said:

rick_chasey said:

ballysmate said:

surrey_commuter said:

It has been mentioned on here before that we are not representative of the general population but it does need saying that the majority of people live hand to mouth. In a months time they could find their unavoidable costs (power, NI, Council Tax, travel) increasing by £1-200 a month. I am not convinced these people will share the enthusiasm for paying the price of punishing Putin.

You may be right. As I mentioned in the Tory thread, Putin is right, people in the west are soft.
During covid for instance, some people viewed the fact that they couldn't get a week drinking and fighting in Benidorm as being a price too high.

People are soft because they can't afford to both heat their homes AND eat?

What on earth?

During warfare that is a consequence. Putin is right, we in the west don't have the belly for it.

Down with the Bourgeoisie! Thank you Comrade Bally.

Funny how the people who insist that Britons need to stop feeling bad about themselves and take pride in their country are also convinced that the same country is populated by a bunch of effete wasters that couldn't stand up to a stiff breeze.

If that is a reference to the (still going, I see) Brexit thread, then yes, we should stop feeling sorry for ourselves, we are where we are at, like it or not. Is that thread still populated by the Jim Bowen "Here's what you could have won" types?

But that aside, I can't see the resilience in the people of the west, not just the UK, to suffer the hardships that would be necessary to prosecute this economic war, never mind military conflict, to its conclusion.

Nothing to do with Brexit. Just the general 'proud to be British' flag-waving stuff. There seems to be a strong correlation with the people who are happy to deride their own country as weak and decadent. Just seems a little inconsistent.
We're fundamentally no different from the Ukrainians. We have the luxury of not being tested in 80-odd years, whereas they've lived next to an aggressive neighbour for 8 years. That's all.

AndyG785

Ballysmate said:

For real?
NATO has stated that they will fulfil its obligations should Russia tread on an inch of its members' soil.
You want them to escalate the conflict to stop Putin from lashing out. Can't see how that works.
And you arrogantly advocate "we" give him half of Ukraine. How does that solve the problem of an occupying force on a resisting country? May turn Ukraine into Russia's Vietnam.

Is that the same Western powers that promised Ukraine they would honour their security if they gave up Nuclear weapons?

Just don't see how you can be so certain the US will risk nuclear destruction for Latvia, they aren't willing to risk it for Ukraine despite the genocide, why would they for a far smaller country?
I have no such certainty, i suspect once Putin waves Nuclear war about we will shrink away as we have done over his last 3 invasions.

As i ve pointed out, we carved up eastern europe with no concern for what the countries involved wanted, we'll do the same for Ukraine if it suits us.

Putin will carry on until he has taken Kyiv and the south of the country, at that point he will negotiate and the place will be partitioned, this is inevitable.

Aside, when i use "we" its not me personally but western alliances, mainly the US, i d have thought that was obvious.

pblakeney

AndyG785 said:

Just don't see how you can be so certain the US will risk nuclear destruction for Latvia, .....

I assume you just used Latvia as an example as they are in NATO but Moldova is next.

MattFalle

.

personally we feel no one is next as Russia is currently getting smashed to bits on the ground and their daily troop/equipt losses are, frankly, very very eye opening.

and their military isshit.

pblakeney

MattFalle said:

.

personally we feel no one is next as Russia is currently getting smashed to bits on the ground and their daily troop/equipt losses are, frankly, very very eye opening.

and their military isshit.

This would be good news.
I think it will be a long drawn out affair given nobody is physically going in to help Ukraine.

Pross

MattFalle said:

.

personally we feel no one is next as Russia is currently getting smashed to bits on the ground and their daily troop/equipt losses are, frankly, very very eye opening.

and their military isshit.

My biggest worry there is that if their military is shown to be weak there's a bigger risk that the mad man will go nuclear to assert his power.

First.Aspect

pblakeney said:

AndyG785 said:

Just don't see how you can be so certain the US will risk nuclear destruction for Latvia, .....

I assume you just used Latvia as an example as they are in NATO but Moldova is next.

If nothing else the outcome of all of this has to be at least realising that a military buffer zone between Russia and Europe is the last thing we need. He will just move into it.