EU Referendum (Serious...ish)

Stevo_666

RockmonkeySC wrote:

Well, that's British manufacturing screwed.
My job (along with 309 others) will be moved to Germany by the end of the year.
So much for protecting UK jobs. All it's done is saved the eastern European workers travelling all the way over here by forcing businesses who rely on imports and exports to reconsider whether the UK is the right place to be.
Never mind, I've got a few shares to keep me going a while. I wonder how the stock markets are doing.....

So your company have done all their BREXIT planning, had the board meeting and decided to move without even knowing what the rules will be when we leave - all today? Wow.

rockmonkeysc

Stevo 666 wrote:

RockmonkeySC wrote:

Well, that's British manufacturing screwed.
My job (along with 309 others) will be moved to Germany by the end of the year.
So much for protecting UK jobs. All it's done is saved the eastern European workers travelling all the way over here by forcing businesses who rely on imports and exports to reconsider whether the UK is the right place to be.
Never mind, I've got a few shares to keep me going a while. I wonder how the stock markets are doing.....

So your company have done all their BREXIT planning, had the board meeting and decided to move without even knowing what the rules will be when we leave - all today? Wow.

It was planned a while ago I think. The UK factory was bought as the first manufacturing Base in the EU. They have since bought factories in Poland, Italy and Germany.
I guess a quick move back in to Europe removes any uncertainty. It'll only cost a few million to move machinery and tooling in to existing sites.
We don't have a single UK customer and most of our suppliers are in Europe. Not really anything to keep them in the UK anymore I guess.

pblakeney

RockmonkeySC wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

RockmonkeySC wrote:

Well, that's British manufacturing screwed.
My job (along with 309 others) will be moved to Germany by the end of the year.
So much for protecting UK jobs. All it's done is saved the eastern European workers travelling all the way over here by forcing businesses who rely on imports and exports to reconsider whether the UK is the right place to be.
Never mind, I've got a few shares to keep me going a while. I wonder how the stock markets are doing.....

So your company have done all their BREXIT planning, had the board meeting and decided to move without even knowing what the rules will be when we leave - all today? Wow.

It was planned a while ago I think. The UK factory was bought as the first manufacturing Base in the EU. They have since bought factories in Poland, Italy and Germany.
I guess a quick move back in to Europe removes any uncertainty. It'll only cost a few million to move machinery and tooling in to existing sites.
We don't have a single UK customer and most of our suppliers are in Europe. Not really anything to keep them in the UK anymore I guess.

That is proper Brexit planning.
How is yours doing?

Stevo_666

Ours is going fine and we're definitely not leaving. Helps to have me in charge

pblakeney

Stevo 666 wrote:

Ours is going fine and we're definitely not leaving. Helps to have me in charge

Sounds a lot like self preservation though.

thekickingmule

From what I've been reading, quite a lot of companies that said back in February that they'd move out of the UK if there was a vote leave, have changed their minds since then. I imagine they've been like Steveo, and had meetings to discuss it and basically said "It might not be as bad as everyone thinks".

Morgan Stanley, HSBC and several others have already said that they're not moving yet. If the UK can get a good deal with the EU to trade goods and allow movement of people, it might be in the interest of some companies to stay here, being able to trade with the continent, but not reside in it!

Stevo_666

PBlakeney wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Ours is going fine and we're definitely not leaving. Helps to have me in charge

Sounds a lot like self preservation though.

I would never do that...and the board agreed with me. Although what I thought was a 2 month project is now a several year project.

Stevo_666

thekickingmule wrote:

From what I've been reading, quite a lot of companies that said back in February that they'd move out of the UK if there was a vote leave, have changed their minds since then. I imagine they've been like Steveo, and had meetings to discuss it and basically said "It might not be as bad as everyone thinks".

Morgan Stanley, HSBC and several others have already said that they're not moving yet. If the UK can get a good deal with the EU to trade goods and allow movement of people, it might be in the interest of some companies to stay here, being able to trade with the continent, but not reside in it!

Yep, and jumping before you know how things will turn out is a bit stupid.

FishFish

thekickingmule wrote:

Morgan Stanley, HSBC and several others have already said that they're not moving yet. If the UK can get a good deal with the EU to trade goods and allow movement of people, it might be in the interest of some companies to stay here, being able to trade with the continent, but not reside in it!

RBS, NATWEST,HalifaxBoS now based in Scotland - that will be interesting!

rockmonkeysc

If we don't get a very good trade deal our manufacturing will be finished.
Saving jobs from immigrants? Not looking too good is it?
Looks like a recession is inevitable now. The UK credit rating has already been downgraded.
I'm fixing my mortgage while I still can.

Stevo_666

RockmonkeySC wrote:

If we don't get a very good trade deal our manufacturing will be finished.
Saving jobs from immigrants? Not looking too good is it?
Looks like a recession is inevitable now. The UK credit rating has already been downgraded.
I'm fixing my mortgage while I still can.

Stop thinking like a loser. Reacting to this positively makes more difference than some possible import/export tariffs. In fact, FX fluctuations can and do make more difference than those.

surrey_commuter

Stevo 666 wrote:

RockmonkeySC wrote:

If we don't get a very good trade deal our manufacturing will be finished.
Saving jobs from immigrants? Not looking too good is it?
Looks like a recession is inevitable now. The UK credit rating has already been downgraded.
I'm fixing my mortgage while I still can.

Stop thinking like a loser. Reacting to this positively makes more difference than some possible import/export tariffs. In fact, FX fluctuations can and do make more difference than those.

But he is doing something positive by fixing his mortgage - what else should he do?

Rock monkey - we had a perfect trade deal. The new one won't be as good but tariffs are likely to be in the 5-10% range. So if manufacturing went down at a similar rate you would see more of a long-term decline than a catastrophe.

A slow down in economic growth is inevitable but a recession is not.

All these things were known and got traded for getting our country back and rejecting the elite

rockmonkeysc

Stevo 666 wrote:

RockmonkeySC wrote:

If we don't get a very good trade deal our manufacturing will be finished.
Saving jobs from immigrants? Not looking too good is it?
Looks like a recession is inevitable now. The UK credit rating has already been downgraded.
I'm fixing my mortgage while I still can.

Stop thinking like a loser. Reacting to this positively makes more difference than some possible import/export tariffs. In fact, FX fluctuations can and do make more difference than those.

Whatever happens, in the short term at least the safest thing I can do is take my house off the market and fix my mortgage. There is a very high possiblity of a recession.
I know my job will be gone in six months but a few of the engineers I work with are talking about setting up a mechanical design consultancy so there is a possibility for work.

Stevo_666

RockmonkeySC wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

RockmonkeySC wrote:

If we don't get a very good trade deal our manufacturing will be finished.
Saving jobs from immigrants? Not looking too good is it?
Looks like a recession is inevitable now. The UK credit rating has already been downgraded.
I'm fixing my mortgage while I still can.

Stop thinking like a loser. Reacting to this positively makes more difference than some possible import/export tariffs. In fact, FX fluctuations can and do make more difference than those.

Whatever happens, in the short term at least the safest thing I can do is take my house off the market and fix my mortgage. There is a very high possiblity of a recession.
I know my job will be gone in six months but a few of the engineers I work with are talking about setting up a mechanical design consultancy so there is a possibility for work.

The last bit about your mortgage is sensible - it was the rest of it I was having a pop at.

Briggo

You know what the most infuriating thing is, all those who voted leave and are now questioning whether that was the right vote to make as they are truely worried about the future, they never thought it'd happen.

It's not one or two either.

rockmonkeysc

Mostly because Farage has now denied making claims that the entire £350m EU membership costs could go in to the NHS. He's also admitted that they can't stop immigration as he promised.
Because of his lies were now screwed.

Briggo

Stevo 666 wrote:

RockmonkeySC wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

RockmonkeySC wrote:

If we don't get a very good trade deal our manufacturing will be finished.
Saving jobs from immigrants? Not looking too good is it?
Looks like a recession is inevitable now. The UK credit rating has already been downgraded.
I'm fixing my mortgage while I still can.

Stop thinking like a loser. Reacting to this positively makes more difference than some possible import/export tariffs. In fact, FX fluctuations can and do make more difference than those.

Whatever happens, in the short term at least the safest thing I can do is take my house off the market and fix my mortgage. There is a very high possiblity of a recession.
I know my job will be gone in six months but a few of the engineers I work with are talking about setting up a mechanical design consultancy so there is a possibility for work.

The last bit about your mortgage is sensible - it was the rest of it I was having a pop at.

I'll have a pop at your ridiculous notion that if we remain positive then all will be good. You do realise we have NO say in the next steps whatsoever, none, zilch, nada. We remaining positive is just a way of us personally getting over what has occurred.

Us remaining positive will add nothing to the next steps in terms of the negotiations that are the vital part of not screwing things up, royally.

I hope to hell for the sake of the next generation that the outcome isn't as bleak as it could well be with jobs flooding out of the door because of the departure from the EU and we quickly adapt.

On another note, what I also find infuriating is that the younger generation, those who have to live with the decision for many many years sent a clear message. They want a future in the EU and all that comes with it.

They were denied by the older generation who will have to live with it for 5 mins before they croak it just so they can experience and I quote from some women interviewed in Barnsley, "I'm so happy, it'll be like the good old days, like after the war" and another older man from Barnsley "it'll be good to stop those Africans and Muslims coming into our country, the Europeans are alright but not the others".

Stevo_666

Never said all will be good if we are positive. But if we think and act negative then it will almost certainly make things worse. I voted to Remain but I'm a pragmatist and trying to best deal with the situation that we are in.

How will whingeing make it better?

pblakeney

RockmonkeySC wrote:

Mostly because Farage has now denied making claims that the entire £350m EU membership costs could go in to the NHS. He's also admitted that they can't stop immigration as he promised.
Because of his lies were now screwed.

Problem with that statement is that he wasn't the one making those promises.
As I said earlier, he is like a player subbed while the team is losing and the team goes on to win. An irrelevance.

pblakeney

Stevo 666 wrote:

PBlakeney wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Ours is going fine and we're definitely not leaving. Helps to have me in charge

Sounds a lot like self preservation though.

I would never do that...and the board agreed with me. Although what I thought was a 2 month project is now a several year project.

As I said...
Well played.

rockmonkeysc

PBlakeney wrote:

RockmonkeySC wrote:

Mostly because Farage has now denied making claims that the entire £350m EU membership costs could go in to the NHS. He's also admitted that they can't stop immigration as he promised.
Because of his lies were now screwed.

Problem with that statement is that he wasn't the one making those promises.
As I said earlier, he is like a player subbed while the team is losing and the team goes on to win. An irrelevance.

I saw a video clip of him making those statements earlier.
If you're going to deny saying something, make sure you didn't say it in a BBC interview.

pblakeney

RockmonkeySC wrote:

PBlakeney wrote:

RockmonkeySC wrote:

Mostly because Farage has now denied making claims that the entire £350m EU membership costs could go in to the NHS. He's also admitted that they can't stop immigration as he promised.
Because of his lies were now screwed.

Problem with that statement is that he wasn't the one making those promises.
As I said earlier, he is like a player subbed while the team is losing and the team goes on to win. An irrelevance.

I saw a video clip of him making those statements earlier.
If you're going to deny saying something, make sure you didn't say it in a BBC interview.

He was not part of the Brexit team. He was an irrelevance.
Whatever he says is of no consequence. Or should be. And that is the important part.

rockmonkeysc

Should be irrelevant but it influenced vast numbers of voters so it is relevant.

Stevo_666

PBlakeney wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

PBlakeney wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Ours is going fine and we're definitely not leaving. Helps to have me in charge

Sounds a lot like self preservation though.

I would never do that...and the board agreed with me. Although what I thought was a 2 month project is now a several year project.

As I said...
Well played.

Hindsight is wonderful - I had originally taken it to do a short term profile raiser that could get binned on 24th June. It has now become what would be a job preserver if tax wasn't one of two certs in life

thekickingmule

Surrey Commuter wrote:

A slow down in economic growth is inevitable but a recession is not.

All these things were known and got traded for getting our country back and rejecting the elite

In the short term, yes, in the long term, it's unknown.

Nothing was known before the recession. Even now, it's all a big unknown. Stop making out like it's all doom and gloom. You're still alive, you won't be living like an African in a slum in 2 years time, and there will be opportunities for many people.

surrey_commuter

thekickingmule wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

A slow down in economic growth is inevitable but a recession is not.

All these things were known and got traded for getting our country back and rejecting the elite

In the short term, yes, in the long term, it's unknown.

Nothing was known before the recession. Even now, it's all a big unknown. Stop making out like it's all doom and gloom. You're still alive, you won't be living like an African in a slum in 2 years time, and there will be opportunities for many people.

Read the full exchange I was arguing to be positive. A recession is when your economy gets smaller for 6 months I am arguing that is by no means certain. The economy was growing at 0.6% a quarter, then due to Brexit uncertainties slowed to 0.4% to the end of March.

BloggingFit

Once the dust settles I expect things to stabilise and I don't foresee long term will will be much worse off. Do not underestimate the importance of Mark Carney at this early stage in offering reasurance. We are the 5th largest trading nation globally so other nations aren't suddenly not going to want or need our business any more. We need them as much as they need us.

At least Merkel seems to understand the need to take things slowly and the importance of keeping us as a trading partner. Germany will not want to lose out trade over night given out much ear car industry exports out to us. The US are the ones that need to wind their necks in with comments like we will be at the back of the queue now. Once Trump gets in they will need all the help and friends they can get.

There is of course no guarantee that we will leave either if latest rumours are to be believed. Cameron resigning has put a spanner in the works for Article 50 and whether anyone else is prepared to take on the responsibility of seeing the process through. The letter of confidence to the PM for him to stay on regardless of the outcome is a good indicator of the reluctance with careers on the line should the process not turn out well. A pipedream maybe but a possibility none the less.

rockmonkeysc

The loss of German trade would be very good for Jaguar and Landrover, who have already started stealing sales from ze germans but can't make a dent on the German market.

Thewaylander

Doomed... all doomed

Though reading Boris backing down on immigration and the rest has been amusing me greatly... And the Geography teacher losing virtually all of his shadow cabinet has made me chuckle..

rockmonkeysc

I never understood the point of a shadow cabinet.
They pretend to do a job which they don't actually do and still get paid for it.
If I pretend to be a professional football player will I get paid millions of pounds?