Liege Bastogne Liege 2016 ***SPOILERS***
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Rick Chasey wrote:RichN95 wrote:
The best you will get is 7/4. They match like against like. So for LBL, no Rodriguez v Boonen. The gambler has to pick where they have misjudged it. It's my favourite market. Not a big winner - but one where we may know a touch more than the odds setters.Rick Chasey wrote:Are the odds on Head-to-Heads always that low?
The Guardian used to have a football gambling thread where amateurs gambled and a pro judged them. The pro's consistent advice was bet on head to heads and bet against bad favourites. And that's what I like to do in cycling.
I haven't been playing long but I have noticed there are some weird odds out there.
My theory is if you play when they're like that, the odds tend to be long enough, even EW, that over the long run you'll end up up.
Gasparotto at 151 for liege after he's been 2nd in the Braabanse Pijl is ridiculous. I actually stuck my bet on at those odds after he had attacked on the Cauberg in Amstel.
I've never bet myself, though I believe the traditional method is to pick up some decent odds early, a couple of months out, then cover them by laying the same riders when they shorten nearer the race. This may not be quite as exciting as lumping on an outsider the morning of a monument.Warning No formatter is installed for the format0 -
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Rick Chasey wrote:RichN95 wrote:
The best you will get is 7/4. They match like against like. So for LBL, no Rodriguez v Boonen. The gambler has to pick where they have misjudged it. It's my favourite market. Not a big winner - but one where we may know a touch more than the odds setters.Rick Chasey wrote:Are the odds on Head-to-Heads always that low?
The Guardian used to have a football gambling thread where amateurs gambled and a pro judged them. The pro's consistent advice was bet on head to heads and bet against bad favourites. And that's what I like to do in cycling.
I haven't been playing long but I have noticed there are some weird odds out there.
My theory is if you play when they're like that, the odds tend to be long enough, even EW, that over the long run you'll end up up.
Gasparotto at 151 for liege after he's been 2nd in the Braabanse Pijl is ridiculous. I actually stuck my bet on at those odds after he had attacked on the Cauberg in Amstel.
The thing about cycling markets is the breadth of runners. If you look at the betting for just about any race, and you have 1/2/ short price favs then 3/4/5 second tier choices. Everyone beyond that tends to be priced as a rank outsider - and when you bear in mind that 50/1 has an implied probability of 2% and 150/1 an implied probability of 0.66% then there are huge opportunities.
Basically all the money goes on the obvious choices at the expense of the second/third tier riders. My favourite near miss story was watching Iglinskiy power past Nibali in Liege having refused 150/1 on him (I was in the process of moving and £10 seemed a lot to throw on away, and I assumed the markets obviously knew something i didn't).Team My Man 2018: David gaudu, Pierre Latour, Romain Bardet, Thibaut pinot, Alexandre Geniez, Florian Senechal, Warren Barguil, Benoit Cosnefroy0 -
Is there a market for number of finishers?
I think it's going to be a threadbare peloton that crosses the line today.Warning No formatter is installed for the format0 -
No tA Doctor wrote:Is there a market for number of finishers?
I think it's going to be a threadbare peloton that crosses the line today.
Yes.
Edit: No, I was mistaken. Wen't to PP to get a link and is Tour that has that market.Team My Man 2018: David gaudu, Pierre Latour, Romain Bardet, Thibaut pinot, Alexandre Geniez, Florian Senechal, Warren Barguil, Benoit Cosnefroy0 -
Team My Man 2018: David gaudu, Pierre Latour, Romain Bardet, Thibaut pinot, Alexandre Geniez, Florian Senechal, Warren Barguil, Benoit Cosnefroy0
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It's gonna be a proper race!!
Can't see Froome getting excited about that....He's a hot weather guy.0 -
Ok, so which riders of the favourites have decent records in sh!te weather?
J Rod? He won that awful Lombardy...0 -
Rick Chasey wrote:Ok, so which riders of the favourites have decent records in sh!te weather?
J Rod? He won that awful Lombardy...
Not one of the favourites, but Gallopin put in a ride in the cold at P-N last year.Team My Man 2018: David gaudu, Pierre Latour, Romain Bardet, Thibaut pinot, Alexandre Geniez, Florian Senechal, Warren Barguil, Benoit Cosnefroy0 -
Team My Man 2018: David gaudu, Pierre Latour, Romain Bardet, Thibaut pinot, Alexandre Geniez, Florian Senechal, Warren Barguil, Benoit Cosnefroy0
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If they bin this race, of all races, because of snow, cycling has gone soft.
Surely that'll thaw before the riders head over? They probably have enough time to grit it.0 -
Valverde's said if the weather's too extreme he's gonna step off.
Some rider should be licking their lips about that!0 -
ue to the extreme weather conditions, the organizers have decided to change the course of #LBL. As a result, from km 45 to km 75
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Etixx - Quick-Step @Etixx_QuickStep 1m1 minute ago
the riders will go south before coming back on the planned course before Cote de la Roche en Ardenne.0 -
Course change
Due to the hectic weather conditions, the race organisation has decided to change the planned course. Indeed from km 45 to km 75, the riders will head south and return to the normal course just before the first climb of the day, the Côte de la Roche en Ardenne.
edit: beat me to it0 -
Rick Chasey wrote:If they bin this race, of all races, because of snow, cycling has gone soft.
Surely that'll thaw before the riders head over? They probably have enough time to grit it.
Should have thawed by now - that pic was taken three decades ago.
Boom, and indeed boom.Team My Man 2018: David gaudu, Pierre Latour, Romain Bardet, Thibaut pinot, Alexandre Geniez, Florian Senechal, Warren Barguil, Benoit Cosnefroy0 -
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Look at the 123 at the 2013 worlds,Probably not as cold as today but a attritional race as it pi..ed down all race.PTP winner 2015.0
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Rick Chasey wrote:Suits EBH for Data fans.
Pity he's not riding it then.
Cummings has the EBH role.Warning No formatter is installed for the format0 -
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Nibs is great in the rain, tbf, remember the end of the Giro 2013?
Snowing and he just rode away from everyone0 -
When's the expected finish?0
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After 55km Tiralongo, De Gendt, Roy, Laengen, Brutt, De Marchi, Edet & Benedetti have 8'30" on Van Hecke and Hoogerland & 9' on peloton0
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Hell of a gap to be giving a break like that in a race that might be shortened.Team My Man 2018: David gaudu, Pierre Latour, Romain Bardet, Thibaut pinot, Alexandre Geniez, Florian Senechal, Warren Barguil, Benoit Cosnefroy0
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Bobbie Traksel @bobbietraksel 3m3 minutes ago View translation
Dit was mijn kans om #LBL te winnen! Koers word ingekort, paar heuvels eruit, het weer in mijn voordeel en de beste kleding
This was my chance to win LBL! Course shortened, dropped a few hills, weather in my favour and the best clothing!0
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