Liege Bastogne Liege 2016 ***SPOILERS***

ddraver

If i was the DS I'd be subtly mentioning to a few other DSs that what we need to do is rip it up from the start. Teams that really only have 1 option so I'd be sidling up to Sky (??), EQS (Martin), BMC (Porte) and perhaps Cannondale (just because they re good at this stuff) and suggesting that we send a few riders off on suicide attacks from early on, thereby forcing Movistar to chase but keeping 1 or 2 riders each to help our men in the finale.

rick_chasey

TheBigBean wrote:

But if you can get three riders into the break you're pretty well set unless two are Schlecks. No team will want to let that go.

Fair. I guess you need to throw caution to the wind early on and commit hard to an early break to try and unsettle Movistar.

I do think throwing your marshals and generals (to use a Stratego term) in the mix much earlier in the race is your best bet if you want victory.

You've lost if you take Valverde to the line anyway, so roll the dice.

RichN95.

TakeTheHighRoad wrote:

I'll put on my DS hat, as opposed to "What as a fan I'd like to see" (Long range attacks on la Redoute just don't happen)
.

In itself it's not a winning move, but if you have the right second string rider you can break the race up a lot. I'm thinking particularly of someone like Froome.

disgruntledgoat

RichN95 wrote:

TakeTheHighRoad wrote:

I'll put on my DS hat, as opposed to "What as a fan I'd like to see" (Long range attacks on la Redoute just don't happen)
.

In itself it's not a winning move, but if you have the right second string rider you can break the race up a lot. I'm thinking particularly of someone like Froome.

contador did a good job of that back in, I think, 2012

rick_chasey

No_Ta_Doctor

I know I'm a bit of a fan boy, but I've got a feeling Qhubeka could make something of this. Wouldn't go as far as putting money on any of them, but I'd be very surprised if they didn't have someone in the break and if they didn't liven the race up near the end. They've got a decent range of cards to play without any of them being marked out of the race. They'll try and fly under the radar, and if the big boys are watching each other...

Oh come on, let a man dream.

ddraver

disgruntledgoat wrote:

RichN95 wrote:

TakeTheHighRoad wrote:

I'll put on my DS hat, as opposed to "What as a fan I'd like to see" (Long range attacks on la Redoute just don't happen)
.

In itself it's not a winning move, but if you have the right second string rider you can break the race up a lot. I'm thinking particularly of someone like Froome.

contador did a good job of that back in, I think, 2012

if I was Sky's DS I'd be telling Froome his job is to make a massive nuisance of himself all the way back from Bastogne....

milton50

Rick Chasey wrote:

Milton50 wrote:

Alaphilippe's got this.

In what scenario?

Since coming with Valverde to the line won't work.

He's easily capable of getting the better of Valverde in a small group sprint on the flat. Valverde has him covered on a steep finish but it's pretty even on the flat.

But the main scenario is where a group of favourites are within the last km and attack and counter attack each other. They'll obviously all be looking at Valverde and we know that he's willing to lose the race rather than pull others to the line.

Just think it might be Alaphilppe's year.

DeVlaeminck

Milton50 wrote:

But the main scenario is where a group of favourites are within the last km and attack and counter attack each other. They'll obviously all be looking at Valverde and we know that he's willing to lose the race rather than pull others to the line.

Just think it might be Alaphilppe's year.

Yes Valverde has a huge amount of podiums in Monuments, worlds and other classics, the only one he tends to win if he is there at the finish is Fleche Wallone where there isn't the same issue of people clipping off and others looking at eachother.

That said his record in LBL is far better than the other big one day races aside from FW but even there if you include void results he has 4 non winning podiums so it's not a case of if he makes the selection he wins.

rick_chasey

DeVlaeminck wrote:

Milton50 wrote:

But the main scenario is where a group of favourites are within the last km and attack and counter attack each other. They'll obviously all be looking at Valverde and we know that he's willing to lose the race rather than pull others to the line.

Just think it might be Alaphilppe's year.

Yes Valverde has a huge amount of podiums in Monuments, worlds and other classics, the only one he tends to win if he is there at the finish is Fleche Wallone where there isn't the same issue of people clipping off and others looking at eachother.

That said his record in LBL is far better than the other big one day races aside from FW but even there if you include void results he has 4 non winning podiums so it's not a case of if he makes the selection he wins.

It was last year.

It likely will be this year.

If I was the non-Movistar DS playing for victory or nothing, I wouldn't be waiting for a sprint.

No_Ta_Doctor

If I were a DS my instructions would be "Put him in the gutter".

This is probably why I'm not a DS, tbh.

The_Boy

No tA Doctor wrote:

If I were a DS my instructions would be "Put him in the gutter".

This is probably why I'm not a DS, tbh.

If I were a DS my instructions would be "Put him in the morgue".

This is probably why I'm serving a prison sentence, tbh.

rick_chasey

No other suggestions?

If you're orica DS do you just stick Gerrans on Valverde's wheel like a shadow?

What does JRod try?

And Dan Martin?

How would you lot use Thomas & Froome?

Come on guys - this is the only Ardenne race that plays out tactically and it doesn't rely on luck to decide a rider's fate.

rick_chasey

Am I the only one who plays procycling manager?

Sun Dodger

Orica - Try to keep Gerrans in for the sprint
Katusha / JRod - Attack about 1k out. Almost worked for Moreno last year...
Sky - Froome on (or before) la Redoute, aiming to have 1-2 others with him a la Vino
EQS - Martin on the new climb 3k out, Alaphilippe to go 1-2-1 with Valverde at the end

rick_chasey

Sun Dodger wrote:

Katusha / JRod - Attack about 1k out. Almost worked for Moreno last year...

You wonder if Moreno will do that on behalf of Valverde on Sunday!!

No_Ta_Doctor

The new climb looks a bit of a beast, tbh.

If you want to beat Valverde you need two puncheurs, at least. One to go early and make him chase, one to sit on him and go once he pulls the first back. Of course, this assumes he has to do the work himself, which is unlikely.

DData will put Tekkers or Kudus in the break, with the other + Cummings to sit on Valverde.

No_Ta_Doctor

Rick Chasey wrote:

No other suggestions?

If you're orica DS do you just stick Gerrans on Valverde's wheel like a shadow?

What does JRod try?

And Dan Martin?

How would you lot use Thomas & Froome?

Come on guys - this is the only Ardenne race that plays out tactically and it doesn't rely on luck to decide a rider's fate.

Thomas just for control. Froome to go early. Poels for the real attack.

rick_chasey

No tA Doctor wrote:

The new climb looks a bit of a beast, tbh.

If you want to beat Valverde you need two puncheurs, at least. One to go early and make him chase, one to sit on him and go once he pulls the first back. Of course, this assumes he has to do the work himself, which is unlikely.

DData will put Tekkers or Kudus in the break, with the other + Cummings to sit on Valverde.

Cummings is too big for this race, surely?

The_Boy

EQS to do the same as FW. Martin to attack, Alaphillipe to mark Valverde.

It's the right move tactically, and both riders have more chance on this parcours (weather permitting) than at Fleche.

No_Ta_Doctor

Rick Chasey wrote:

No tA Doctor wrote:

The new climb looks a bit of a beast, tbh.

If you want to beat Valverde you need two puncheurs, at least. One to go early and make him chase, one to sit on him and go once he pulls the first back. Of course, this assumes he has to do the work himself, which is unlikely.

DData will put Tekkers or Kudus in the break, with the other + Cummings to sit on Valverde.

Cummings is too big for this race, surely?

Probably, but he's their best bet for a last minute attack - decent uphill and a quick finisher with it. If Gerrans is a contender...

RichN95.

No tA Doctor wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

No other suggestions?

If you're orica DS do you just stick Gerrans on Valverde's wheel like a shadow?

What does JRod try?

And Dan Martin?

How would you lot use Thomas & Froome?

Come on guys - this is the only Ardenne race that plays out tactically and it doesn't rely on luck to decide a rider's fate.

Thomas just for control. Froome to go early. Poels for the real attack.

I'd have Thomas and Kwiatowski wait for the finale. If they both get there Thomas does the suicide sprint, Kwiatkowski the money sprint.

No_Ta_Doctor

RichN95 wrote:

No tA Doctor wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

No other suggestions?

If you're orica DS do you just stick Gerrans on Valverde's wheel like a shadow?

What does JRod try?

And Dan Martin?

How would you lot use Thomas & Froome?

Come on guys - this is the only Ardenne race that plays out tactically and it doesn't rely on luck to decide a rider's fate.

Thomas just for control. Froome to go early. Poels for the real attack.

I'd have Thomas and Kwiatowski wait for the finale. If they both get there Thomas does the suicide sprint, Kwiatkowski the money sprint.

Kwiatkowski didn't look like he enjoyed Amstel Gold much though.

Froome is probably the real dark horse, nobody has seen him on a bike for ages. No idea what his form is like.

RichN95.

No tA Doctor wrote:

RichN95 wrote:

No tA Doctor wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

No other suggestions?

If you're orica DS do you just stick Gerrans on Valverde's wheel like a shadow?

What does JRod try?

And Dan Martin?

How would you lot use Thomas & Froome?

Come on guys - this is the only Ardenne race that plays out tactically and it doesn't rely on luck to decide a rider's fate.

Thomas just for control. Froome to go early. Poels for the real attack.

I'd have Thomas and Kwiatowski wait for the finale. If they both get there Thomas does the suicide sprint, Kwiatkowski the money sprint.

Kwiatkowski didn't look like he enjoyed Amstel Gold much though.

Froome is probably the real dark horse, nobody has seen him on a bike for ages. No idea what his form is like.

Of course these are ideal scenarios assuming all on good form. They'll probably all end up in a heap like Paris-Roubaix

ocdupalais

Er... Is Thomas even riding?
Even without him, Sky are throwing a strong team at this - as in, would they be putting Froome in unless he was putting out the numbers? I remember the excitement - and then massive disappointment - when Jan Ullrich rode LBL and was rubbish. It's unbecoming for a Tour winner to look second rate in a race like this.

ocdupalais

So, in conclusion Rick: Sky need to line it out into the foot of St Nicholas where Froome needs to go early in the big ring like Frank Vandenbrouke. Job done.

bobmcstuff

Rick Chasey wrote:

Am I the only one who plays procycling manager?

I assumed it was a prerequisite for anyone posting in pro race.

rick_chasey

OCDuPalais wrote:

So, in conclusion Rick: Sky need to line it out into the foot of St Nicholas where Froome needs to go early in the big ring like Frank Vandenbrouke. Job done.

Haha, too much to ask for him to have the same grace on the bike too?

ducknumber1

bobmcstuff wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Am I the only one who plays procycling manager?

I assumed it was a prerequisite for anyone posting in pro race.

I must admit to have lapsed for a few years, am I suspended?

rick_chasey

I suspect Kiwa will be plenty better than his outing in Maastricht would suggest...