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Liege Bastogne Liege 2016 ***SPOILERS***

jimmythecuckoojimmythecuckoo Posts: 4,406
edited April 2016 in Pro race
Forecast not good...

http://www.metcheck.com/EUROPE/city_day ... findtype=&


Website http://www.letour.fr/liege-bastogne-liege/2016/us/

CARTE.jpg

Can't see past Valverde for this one to be honest. But you never can tell.

Dan Martin will be hoping no one butters the last corner so he falls off again.
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Posts

  • jimmythecuckoojimmythecuckoo Posts: 4,406
    Pro Cycling Stats

    http://www.procyclingstats.com/race.php?id=163623&c=2

    Top ten favourites based on their ranking...


    1 VALVERDE Alejandro 2479
    2 FROOME Christopher 1758
    3 QUINTANA Nairo 1736
    4 NIBALI Vincenzo 1688
    5 RODRÍGUEZ Joaquim 1413
    6 BARDET Romain 1408
    7 ULISSI Diego 1132
    8 GILBERT Philippe 1129
    9 MORENO Daniel 1101
    10 BAKELANTS Jan 1089
  • philbar72philbar72 Posts: 2,216
    Froome LOL.
    not a target for him. looks like Poels is going well though. Bardet for top 5, he always goes pretty well here.
  • ddraverddraver Posts: 19,581
    Let's hope the rubbish weather makes this edition worthy of a Doyenne
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • jimmythecuckoojimmythecuckoo Posts: 4,406
    We don't want it bad enough for people to lose feeling in their fingers though :)
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 46,686 Lives Here
    Come ooooon Gasparotto.
  • The forecast is so bad I've cried off the cyclo.
    "In many ways, my story was that of a raging, Christ-like figure who hauled himself off the cross, looked up at the Romans with blood in his eyes and said 'My turn, sock cookers'"

    @gietvangent
  • DeVlaeminckDeVlaeminck Posts: 5,591
    Looked at a few forecasts and no sign of snow - just cold, damp and breezy - I know it goes up into the hills but the race is looking pretty safe at the moment.
    AFC Mercia women - sign for us
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 46,686 Lives Here
    Right. Imagine you're the non-Movistar DS.

    You've seen Movistar have the strongest team and Valverde the strongest sprint.

    You've managed to coax some big hitters in like former or reining Tour winners.

    How do you race it??
  • Right. Imagine you're the non-Movistar DS.

    You've seen Movistar have the strongest team and Valverde the strongest sprint.

    You've managed to coax some big hitters in like former or reining Tour winners.

    How do you race it??

    Hinault-esque suicide break?
    "In many ways, my story was that of a raging, Christ-like figure who hauled himself off the cross, looked up at the Romans with blood in his eyes and said 'My turn, sock cookers'"

    @gietvangent
  • bobmcstuffbobmcstuff Posts: 8,064
    Pull a Tonya Harding on Valverde.
  • milton50milton50 Posts: 3,892
    Alaphilippe's got this.
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 46,686 Lives Here
    edited April 2016
    milton50 wrote:
    Alaphilippe's got this.

    In what scenario?

    Since coming with Valverde to the line won't work.
  • jimmythecuckoojimmythecuckoo Posts: 4,406
    The forecast is so bad I've cried off the cyclo.


    :roll:
  • ddraverddraver Posts: 19,581
    The forecast is so bad I've cried off the cyclo.

    You're becoming more and more Belgian!
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • ddraverddraver Posts: 19,581
    Gilbert is out this weekend, finger issues
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • RichN95.RichN95. Posts: 22,902
    ddraver wrote:
    Gilbert is out this weekend, finger issues
    All hopes of Valverde being peppered sprayed have gone out the window.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • joelsimjoelsim Posts: 7,552
    ddraver wrote:
    Gilbert is out this weekend, finger issues

    Been playing nuffle I gather.
  • RichN95 wrote:
    ddraver wrote:
    Gilbert is out this weekend, finger issues
    All hopes of Valverde being peppered sprayed have gone out the window.



    Ach, balls :(
  • TheBigBeanTheBigBean Posts: 9,276
    Right. Imagine you're the non-Movistar DS.

    You've seen Movistar have the strongest team and Valverde the strongest sprint.

    You've managed to coax some big hitters in like former or reining Tour winners.

    How do you race it??

    DS with a decent climber - whole team rides hard all day trying to drop Valverde's teammates. Nearer the end tour champ makes his move with repeated attacks in an attempt to solo to victory. In practice, Valverde follows the moves and wins easily.

    DS with quicker sprinter - hide next Gerrans and hope other DS hasn't used tactic above.
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 46,686 Lives Here
    My try.

    Throw your #3, #4 #5 riders aggressively into the early break. Hopefully two of them will make it.

    When things get hilly get your breakaway companions to drive it hard, so Movistar have a tough chase.

    Throw your #1 rider in at the deep end on the attack around la redoute and have your #2 sit in the box.

    Let that play out.
  • TheBigBeanTheBigBean Posts: 9,276
    But if you can get three riders into the break you're pretty well set unless two are Schlecks. No team will want to let that go.
  • TheBigBeanTheBigBean Posts: 9,276
    Or the team is EQS
  • andypandyp Posts: 8,128
    My try.

    Throw your #3, #4 #5 riders aggressively into the early break. Hopefully two of them will make it.

    When things get hilly get your breakaway companions to drive it hard, so Movistar have a tough chase.

    Throw your #1 rider in at the deep end on the attack around la redoute and have your #2 sit in the box.

    Let that play out.

    Good plan. You want to isolate Valverde from La Redoute, as he can't cover everything himself, so keep attacking on the remaining climbs (ideally with 2 or 3 riders).
  • joelsimjoelsim Posts: 7,552
    I can't see past Valverdemort for this.
  • I'll put on my DS hat, as opposed to "What as a fan I'd like to see" (Long range attacks on la Redoute just don't happen)

    Sit tight for the sprint, then complain when Valverde wins that no other teams helped to make the race hard.

    Also known as the Lefevre paradox...
    My Men 2020 - Mark Cavendish, Ben Swift, Fernando Gaviria, Alejandro Valverde, Edvald Boassen Hagen, Zdenek Stybar, Vincenzo Nibali, Geraint Thomas.
  • No BR DS fancy an attack on the Cote de la Rue Naniot? That's where my team leader is going to have a go.
  • DeVlaeminckDeVlaeminck Posts: 5,591
    I can see Valverde losing this in the way he loses quite a few, small group , someone attacks, someone else reacts and drags it back, someone counters and everyone looks at Valverde to react, he sits tight and by the time someone else does it's too late, Valverde wins the sprint for second.
    AFC Mercia women - sign for us
  • I'll put on my DS hat, as opposed to "What as a fan I'd like to see" (Long range attacks on la Redoute just don't happen)


    Where's Frank Vandenbroucke when you need him?
    "In many ways, my story was that of a raging, Christ-like figure who hauled himself off the cross, looked up at the Romans with blood in his eyes and said 'My turn, sock cookers'"

    @gietvangent
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