Donald Trump

kingstongraham

tailwindhome said:

kingstongraham said:

tailwindhome said:

Trump won't be running in 2024.

Clarify which Trump.

Donald

Why would he?

He did it.
He won the Presidency
Nothing changes that

Why run again?

He is detached from reality. I think a Don Jr/Ivanka ticket is a realistic possibility though.

john80

step83 said:

john80 said:

step83 said:

Pross said:

Is there really any possibility of the Republicans choosing him as their candidate again? Would he run as an independent if not? I could imagine that playing to his ego and his desire to be seen to be taking on the "elite" but I'm not sure he could take the hammering he would get without Party support. Besides, by then he'll hopefully be tucked up in a nice Federal institution or at least have a record that prevents him standing.

Two trains of thought here.

Republicans could choose trump to run again knowing his popularity makes the odds of a win greater.
But then you have the risk of alienating a large portion of voters.
Conversely they may choose to distance themselves from him if these court cases fall though which appears likely.

He could easily run as an independent, it would suit his narrative as he could turn on both sides of the house citing corruption etc and how he would "drain the Swamp" as he keeps saying. Again he has a large support base to call on.

You might want to look at the history of the success of independents before posting this argument. He has literally no chance as an independent.

I'm quite well aware of history, but his sheer arrogance may see him try. 10 years ago, would you have said we would have Trump as the president of the US and a global pandemic?
Stranger things have happened.

In fairness the Republican party have been lowering the bar every time. Last time we have cowboy Bush that was not the most strategic thinker. Its not a long downward step to a dimwit who is also a pathological liar. Global pandemics seem to be becoming more frequent so its likely we will have another in ten years.

First.Aspect

john80 said:

step83 said:

john80 said:

step83 said:

Pross said:

Is there really any possibility of the Republicans choosing him as their candidate again? Would he run as an independent if not? I could imagine that playing to his ego and his desire to be seen to be taking on the "elite" but I'm not sure he could take the hammering he would get without Party support. Besides, by then he'll hopefully be tucked up in a nice Federal institution or at least have a record that prevents him standing.

Two trains of thought here.

Republicans could choose trump to run again knowing his popularity makes the odds of a win greater.
But then you have the risk of alienating a large portion of voters.
Conversely they may choose to distance themselves from him if these court cases fall though which appears likely.

He could easily run as an independent, it would suit his narrative as he could turn on both sides of the house citing corruption etc and how he would "drain the Swamp" as he keeps saying. Again he has a large support base to call on.

You might want to look at the history of the success of independents before posting this argument. He has literally no chance as an independent.

I'm quite well aware of history, but his sheer arrogance may see him try. 10 years ago, would you have said we would have Trump as the president of the US and a global pandemic?
Stranger things have happened.

In fairness the Republican party have been lowering the bar every time. Last time we have cowboy Bush that was not the most strategic thinker. Its not a long downward step to a dimwit who is also a pathological liar. Global pandemics seem to be becoming more frequent so its likely we will have another in ten years.

George dubya had an attention span of 15 minutes. 60 times as good.

john80

kingstongraham said:

tailwindhome said:

kingstongraham said:

tailwindhome said:

Trump won't be running in 2024.

Clarify which Trump.

Donald

Why would he?

He did it.
He won the Presidency
Nothing changes that

Why run again?

He is detached from reality. I think a Don Jr/Ivanka ticket is a realistic possibility though.

Have you listened to Iwanka Trump speak? It is beyond painful. I still cannot get the image of her sitting at a desk like a lost model at a global summit the other year out of my head.

swjohnsey

tailwindhome said:

Trump won't be running in 2024.

He won't be eligible because a U.S. president only gets two terms.

shirley_basso

Are you as deluded as he (Trump) is, or am I missing something?

First.Aspect

swjohnsey said:

tailwindhome said:

Trump won't be running in 2024.

He won't be eligible because a U.S. president only gets two terms.

#putin

First.Aspect

shirley_basso said:

Are you as deluded as he (Trump) is, or am I missing something?

You are. 2016, 2020, 2024 = 3

pinno

If only Al Gore had Putin's help.

DeVlaeminck

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

First.Aspect said:

Republicans (or Mitch McConnell at least) seem to be doubling down on the Trump approach. At the very least they seem committed to backing disinformation, fake news candidates in future.

Electorate arguably doesn't really punish them for it, so why not double down?

It is working at the moment. Not sure if in 4-8 years time the younger voters will show this to be short sighted though. These are a generation of people who grew up with the internet, unlike the middle aged white working class moron base they currently have.

A majority of white Americans with degrees voted for Trump first time around. You may think they are morons but they aren't all working class by any means.

DeVlaeminck

schlepcycling said:

Pross said:

Is there really any possibility of the Republicans choosing him as their candidate again? Would he run as an independent if not? I could imagine that playing to his ego and his desire to be seen to be taking on the "elite" but I'm not sure he could take the hammering he would get without Party support. Besides, by then he'll hopefully be tucked up in a nice Federal institution or at least have a record that prevents him standing.

Presumably Trump could enter the Republican primary in 2023 just like he did in 2015 and go from there. His problem is staying relevant without access to the vast machinery of the government to push his agenda and as they say a week is a long time in politics. Assuming that Biden's victory is ratified and he gets sworn in on January 20th, how much are people going to still be talking about Trump in 6, 12 or 18 months time. The news agenda is very fast moving and without the guaranteed publicity of the Presidency (except maybe his friends on Fox News) he'll be left somewhat shouting into the void. Also the problem for the Republican party is that if they back him in 2024 and he wins he can only serve 1 more term so they'd be looking for yet another post Trump candidate for 2028 and will others with Presidential ambitions be happy to put those ambitions on hold for potentially 8 more years.

Exactly it's not the same as the UK - I think it varies state by state but it's far more of a popular vote. If Trump wants to run he's got every chance if his popularity with grassroots Republicans remains high.

pblakeney

DeVlaeminck said:

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

First.Aspect said:

Republicans (or Mitch McConnell at least) seem to be doubling down on the Trump approach. At the very least they seem committed to backing disinformation, fake news candidates in future.

Electorate arguably doesn't really punish them for it, so why not double down?

It is working at the moment. Not sure if in 4-8 years time the younger voters will show this to be short sighted though. These are a generation of people who grew up with the internet, unlike the middle aged white working class moron base they currently have.

A majority of white Americans with degrees voted for Trump first time around. You may think they are morons but they aren't all working class by any means.

WASPS voting Republican is hardly news.

yearofthegoat

The Trump presidency should serve as a clear warning to the whole world of the dire consequences of putting a businessperson in charge, and business above all else.

rick_chasey

Lol I agree with the sentiment but Trump is not a business man in any normal sense.

kingstongraham

Theory is that it doesn't matter how weak the lawsuits are. They're weak.

The aim is to still have litigation in several states that have republican legislature ongoing on 14th December. These states then refuse to appoint electors as their election is not concluded. Biden gets fewer than 270 votes, and it goes to the house to make the decision. In the house, it would be one vote per state, and republicans have more states than democrats. Relies on every republican member not caring about their country's democracy.

Wild.

First.Aspect

DeVlaeminck said:

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

First.Aspect said:

Republicans (or Mitch McConnell at least) seem to be doubling down on the Trump approach. At the very least they seem committed to backing disinformation, fake news candidates in future.

Electorate arguably doesn't really punish them for it, so why not double down?

It is working at the moment. Not sure if in 4-8 years time the younger voters will show this to be short sighted though. These are a generation of people who grew up with the internet, unlike the middle aged white working class moron base they currently have.

A majority of white Americans with degrees voted for Trump first time around. You may think they are morons but they aren't all working class by any means.

That's very misleading. And not true. It was something like 49-46 in that demographic. Compared to historic levels, there was a definite and significant swing towards Trump in non-college level voters, and away in college-level or higher.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/behind-trumps-victory-divisions-by-race-gender-education/

If you take away the "white" filter, there is quite a stark 9 points in favour of the democrats. There is no doubt that his "base" is NOT a cohort of white, white collar workers.

You would expect that after 4 chaotic years, these differences will be even more pronounced this time around (but based on the prism that most republicans would vote for a mannequin if they had to, rather than democrat, and vice versa).

DeVlaeminck

pblakeney said:

DeVlaeminck said:

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

First.Aspect said:

Republicans (or Mitch McConnell at least) seem to be doubling down on the Trump approach. At the very least they seem committed to backing disinformation, fake news candidates in future.

Electorate arguably doesn't really punish them for it, so why not double down?

It is working at the moment. Not sure if in 4-8 years time the younger voters will show this to be short sighted though. These are a generation of people who grew up with the internet, unlike the middle aged white working class moron base they currently have.

A majority of white Americans with degrees voted for Trump first time around. You may think they are morons but they aren't all working class by any means.

WASPS voting Republican is hardly news.

No but worth pointing out when you see it written off as a "working class moron" phenomenon.

pblakeney

DeVlaeminck said:

pblakeney said:

DeVlaeminck said:

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

First.Aspect said:

Republicans (or Mitch McConnell at least) seem to be doubling down on the Trump approach. At the very least they seem committed to backing disinformation, fake news candidates in future.

Electorate arguably doesn't really punish them for it, so why not double down?

It is working at the moment. Not sure if in 4-8 years time the younger voters will show this to be short sighted though. These are a generation of people who grew up with the internet, unlike the middle aged white working class moron base they currently have.

A majority of white Americans with degrees voted for Trump first time around. You may think they are morons but they aren't all working class by any means.

WASPS voting Republican is hardly news.

No but worth pointing out when you see it written off as a "working class moron" phenomenon.

Worth pointing out that you shouldn't believe everything that you read? 😉

First.Aspect

DeVlaeminck said:

pblakeney said:

DeVlaeminck said:

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

First.Aspect said:

Republicans (or Mitch McConnell at least) seem to be doubling down on the Trump approach. At the very least they seem committed to backing disinformation, fake news candidates in future.

Electorate arguably doesn't really punish them for it, so why not double down?

It is working at the moment. Not sure if in 4-8 years time the younger voters will show this to be short sighted though. These are a generation of people who grew up with the internet, unlike the middle aged white working class moron base they currently have.

A majority of white Americans with degrees voted for Trump first time around. You may think they are morons but they aren't all working class by any means.

WASPS voting Republican is hardly news.

No but worth pointing out when you see it written off as a "working class moron" phenomenon.

It is an internet forum. And the comment is equally true of the sort of demographic split we saw for Brexit and most likely a number of other forms of populism. Address the detailed comments above.

DeVlaeminck

First.Aspect said:

DeVlaeminck said:

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

First.Aspect said:

Republicans (or Mitch McConnell at least) seem to be doubling down on the Trump approach. At the very least they seem committed to backing disinformation, fake news candidates in future.

Electorate arguably doesn't really punish them for it, so why not double down?

It is working at the moment. Not sure if in 4-8 years time the younger voters will show this to be short sighted though. These are a generation of people who grew up with the internet, unlike the middle aged white working class moron base they currently have.

A majority of white Americans with degrees voted for Trump first time around. You may think they are morons but they aren't all working class by any means.

That's very misleading. And not true. It was something like 49-46 in that demographic. Compared to historic levels, there was a definite and significant swing towards Trump in non-college level voters, and away in college-level or higher.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/behind-trumps-victory-divisions-by-race-gender-education/

If you take away the "white" filter, there is quite a stark 9 points in favour of the democrats. There is no doubt that his "base" is NOT a cohort of white, white collar workers.

You would expect that after 4 chaotic years, these differences will be even more pronounced this time around (but based on the prism that most republicans would vote for a mannequin if they had to, rather than democrat, and vice versa).

Well those were the figures I got from googling it last night.

A quote from the independent.
"Despite Mr Trump's support from the working class, exit poll data shows that over half of voters on incomes below $30,000 a year supported for Ms Clinton. Meanwhile, half of voters earning between $50,000 and $99,000 a year supported Mr Trump and he was favoured more by voters in higher income brackets – but only by very narrow margins."

So again whatever way you cut it it's not just a working class phenomenon.

I'm not going to take away the white filter because nobody has argued that isn't important.

DeVlaeminck

First.Aspect said:

swjohnsey said:

No doubt younger folks tend to be more liberal. It is always easy to be generous with other folk's money. The cool part is that the 20 something will be 40 somethings in 20 years and more conservative. It is also true that folks in the cities are very different from country folks and this hold for the U.K. and Canada in my experience.

This is very true.

We do though tend to refine our beliefs as we get older, rather than wholesale revise them. The younger generation has lived with climate change all their lives, have always had the internet and have only ever known globalisation.

Whereas I can remember being told in the late 70's that we were headed for an ice age, and the greatest existential threats to humanity were the hole in the ozone layer and aids.

Times change.

And I really doubt in the late 70s anyone suggested Aids or the thinning Ozone Layer were a threat - guessing you are actually a bit young to remember the 70s.

First.Aspect

DeVlaeminck said:

First.Aspect said:

swjohnsey said:

No doubt younger folks tend to be more liberal. It is always easy to be generous with other folk's money. The cool part is that the 20 something will be 40 somethings in 20 years and more conservative. It is also true that folks in the cities are very different from country folks and this hold for the U.K. and Canada in my experience.

This is very true.

We do though tend to refine our beliefs as we get older, rather than wholesale revise them. The younger generation has lived with climate change all their lives, have always had the internet and have only ever known globalisation.

Whereas I can remember being told in the late 70's that we were headed for an ice age, and the greatest existential threats to humanity were the hole in the ozone layer and aids.

Times change.

And I really doubt in the late 70s anyone suggested Aids or the thinning Ozone Layer were a threat - guessing you are actually a bit young to remember the 70s.

I am 47. I can remember Tomorrow's World in the late 70s discussing this. I bet it is on youtube somewhere.

Sure the ozone layer and aids started to creep into the news in the early to mid 80s.

pblakeney

A pedant could point out that the early to mid 80s are not the late 70s. 😉

First.Aspect

pblakeney said:

A pedant could point out that the early to mid 80s are not the late 70s. 😉

Yes and of course it also completely changes the point I was making.

sungod

damage to the ozone layer was certainly in the news by the mid-70s, i remember it

for instance...
https://www.nytimes.com/1975/06/22/archives/aerosol-feels-the-ozone-effect.html

First.Aspect

DeVlaeminck said:

First.Aspect said:

DeVlaeminck said:

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

First.Aspect said:

Republicans (or Mitch McConnell at least) seem to be doubling down on the Trump approach. At the very least they seem committed to backing disinformation, fake news candidates in future.

Electorate arguably doesn't really punish them for it, so why not double down?

It is working at the moment. Not sure if in 4-8 years time the younger voters will show this to be short sighted though. These are a generation of people who grew up with the internet, unlike the middle aged white working class moron base they currently have.

A majority of white Americans with degrees voted for Trump first time around. You may think they are morons but they aren't all working class by any means.

That's very misleading. And not true. It was something like 49-46 in that demographic. Compared to historic levels, there was a definite and significant swing towards Trump in non-college level voters, and away in college-level or higher.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/behind-trumps-victory-divisions-by-race-gender-education/

If you take away the "white" filter, there is quite a stark 9 points in favour of the democrats. There is no doubt that his "base" is NOT a cohort of white, white collar workers.

You would expect that after 4 chaotic years, these differences will be even more pronounced this time around (but based on the prism that most republicans would vote for a mannequin if they had to, rather than democrat, and vice versa).

Well those were the figures I got from googling it last night.

A quote from the independent.
"Despite Mr Trump's support from the working class, exit poll data shows that over half of voters on incomes below $30,000 a year supported for Ms Clinton. Meanwhile, half of voters earning between $50,000 and $99,000 a year supported Mr Trump and he was favoured more by voters in higher income brackets – but only by very narrow margins."

So again whatever way you cut it it's not just a working class phenomenon.

I'm not going to take away the white filter because nobody has argued that isn't important.

Well you can fixate on the use of cartoonish stereotypes on an internet forum if you like. However the point remains that he won by disproportionatelt mobilizing the demographic I am refering to. His racist rhetoric should tell you this because it was playing to the same audience. It was always a balancing act as to how many right minded Republicans could tolerate this. Hence, the Democrats put up a pretty innocuous candidate and they picked up some "good conscience" votes that will likely revert if the next Republican candidate isn't a sociopath.

Of course all republicans are not morons but you are getting vicariously offended there aren't you.

However, if you actually look into it, there was a pretty dramatic swing towards the, lets say, wishful of thinking in 2016.

There was also a reversion towards the mean amongst other groups more traditionally republican.

veronese68

Cry fraud then bribe someone to verify your claims, what a shambles
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/us-election-postal-claims-fraud-ballot-votes-pennsylvania-b1720810.html

shirley_basso

Racist sweeping generalisation there...

First.Aspect

swjohnsey said:

What is the demographic of Trump supporters? Well, it seem that the vast majority of Blacks and Hispanics support Biden. If I was one welfare or in the country illegally I would support Biden.

So black and hispanic Americans are there illegally?

Is there anyone else who doesn't look like you that causes problems for old white guys?

veronese68

Because illegals all get a vote.