Donald Trump

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  • orraloon
    orraloon Posts: 13,227

    swjohnsey said:

    swjohnsey said:

    swjohnsey said:

    Pross said:

    swjohnsey said:

    The election turns on Nevada. Trump still still stands a slim chance of pulling it off as many of the uncounted votes are from rural counties and likely to go Republican. If Biden wins Nevada the election is in the bag as he will have the requisite 270 electoral votes.

    When you look at a map of the counties of the U.S. you see a sea of red (Republican) and a few blue (Democrat) dots. The blue dots are cities. Blacks and Hispanics who make up about 1/3rd of the population are drawn to cities. Blacks vote Democrat over 90%, Hispanics probably 80%. In the 2016 election, Clinton won the popular vote and 487 counties. Trump won 2,626 counties.

    It looks like the senate will remain in Republican control. Republicans picked up strength in the house. As was demonstrated by the Democrats with the Trump administration, not much can happen without the cooperation of the other party. The president has very limited powers. He can't spend a dime that has not been appropriated by congress. Congress can't appropriate any money without the consent of the senate.

    So being President is basically pointless unless you have the Senate and Congress? That would explain why Trump doesn't seem overly bothered by the prospect of losing.
    Being president is cool. You get to live in a big house for free, private security, they play music when you enter the room. The president is the chief executive officer, he executes policies established by the legislature. I wonder what would happen if the senate just refused to confirm any of Biden's appointments should he be elected?
    I think the point is that he won't be doing his best to destroy the global environment or destabilise every part of the world he's actually heard of. Your supreme court tends not to matter outside of the US, although I do feel bad for you.

    Btw although democratic representation by square mile (or by county) is an interesting concept, you do understand that more people live in cities than don't right?
    Yep, you understand that the states elect the president and not the people, right?
    Ah, this must be clever in some way.
    Ask you mother.
    If you were a real person I'd be very upset.
    It's Botster effing up his shift rota.
  • bobmcstuff
    bobmcstuff Posts: 11,435
    mrb123 said:

    I keep seeing stories such as "60,000 votes left to count in Georgia".

    If they haven't counted them, how do they know???

    They have 60,000 unopened envelopes in front of them in this case, as these are mostly postal votes!
  • To help Swohnsey understand, in the UK Northern England has vast swathes of blue on election maps (as you know blue is conservative) but if you give each constituency the same size the North becomes red. More labour voting constituencies but the Tory voting areas are large and mostly empty. Of course the last GE kind of messed that usual situation up a bit courtesy of Corbyn.

    I think back to claimed homeland colours on the map doesn't relate to the actual popular vote. Or at least you can't rely on it. Of course popular vote doesn't elect the president AIUI it's just the means that the electoral college uses to allocate state votes on a state wide FPTP system in each state.

    It would be very interesting if the pact to use the electoral college vote system to allocate according to the popular vote ever gains traction? Imagine if it had been in place 2016. No trump presidency. Will it ever happen though?

    Anyone see Guiliani, trump jr,a huge bruiser of a suit and a bus load of other suits march past the cameras in PA to try and stop the count? Funny!

    I actually like the parliamentary system better. American elections and the run up to them are just too long.

    Now to the electoral college! The electoral college is part of the constitution. To change it requires a constitutional amendment. To get an amendment one much first get two thirds of each house of the legislature plus the signature of the president. After that one must get 3/4th of the state legislatures to ratify it. Do you think a small state with three electors will ratify. Not a chance. It was the same situation with slavery.

    Just think, we coulda had Hillary!
  • webboo
    webboo Posts: 6,087
    Better still you could have another Warren G Harding. Do you think it’s true his wife poisoned him given she wouldn’t let his body be examined after he died.
  • You do not know about the pact being signed up by States to use the electoral college system to get around the inadequacies of the original creators' ideas that mean it doesn't work so well in the modern era??

    AIUI States sign up to the principles of using the electoral college votes as the popular vote goes. As in if there's 20 college votes and the view goes 55% to one candidate then that caudate gets 11 electoral votes and the other side gets 9 votes. This pact only gets enacted when enough States sign up to achieve its aims of making the college system effectively achieve the popular vote in its effects.
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • webboo said:

    Better still you could have another Warren G Harding. Do you think it’s true his wife poisoned him given she wouldn’t let his body be examined after he died.

    You figure she knew about his mistresses and illegitimate child?
  • bobmcstuff
    bobmcstuff Posts: 11,435
    Lead in Pennsylvania below 100k (95k) - last batch was 80% Biden.

    Nevada is going to hold - 190k votes left to count, 90% of which from the county Vegas is in (i.e., Democrat leaning). Should really be called but they won't do it because they called Arizona too early and it will look bad.
  • You do not know about the pact being signed up by States to use the electoral college system to get around the inadequacies of the original creators' ideas that mean it doesn't work so well in the modern era??

    AIUI States sign up to the principles of using the electoral college votes as the popular vote goes. As in if there's 20 college votes and the view goes 55% to one candidate then that caudate gets 11 electoral votes and the other side gets 9 votes. This pact only gets enacted when enough States sign up to achieve its aims of making the college system effectively achieve the popular vote in its effects.

    Maine and Nebraska already have perportional representation.
  • webboo
    webboo Posts: 6,087
    swjohnsey said:

    webboo said:

    Better still you could have another Warren G Harding. Do you think it’s true his wife poisoned him given she wouldn’t let his body be examined after he died.

    You figure she knew about his mistresses and illegitimate child?
    Mistresses I thought it it was just the one who he was intimate with in Whitehouse cloak room amongst another places. Still after he died you got the one who liked to dress up as a cowboy while his financial advisors were busy causing the Great Wall Street crash.
  • You do not know about the pact being signed up by States to use the electoral college system to get around the inadequacies of the original creators' ideas that mean it doesn't work so well in the modern era??

    AIUI States sign up to the principles of using the electoral college votes as the popular vote goes. As in if there's 20 college votes and the view goes 55% to one candidate then that caudate gets 11 electoral votes and the other side gets 9 votes. This pact only gets enacted when enough States sign up to achieve its aims of making the college system effectively achieve the popular vote in its effects.

    I thought the objective was to award all of the electoral college votes to the winner of the national popular vote. They just need to get states with a total of 270 college votes between to sign up.
  • You do not know about the pact being signed up by States to use the electoral college system to get around the inadequacies of the original creators' ideas that mean it doesn't work so well in the modern era??

    AIUI States sign up to the principles of using the electoral college votes as the popular vote goes. As in if there's 20 college votes and the view goes 55% to one candidate then that caudate gets 11 electoral votes and the other side gets 9 votes. This pact only gets enacted when enough States sign up to achieve its aims of making the college system effectively achieve the popular vote in its effects.

    I thought the objective was to award all of the electoral college votes to the winner of the national popular vote. They just need to get states with a total of 270 college votes between to sign up.
    You're likely to be right. Perhaps I projected my idea that one person one vote with equal voting power. It's something I heard about through the fog of sleeping in front of the TV!! :/
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463

    So what's the outcome then... is he going to concede grumbling about the injustice of the postal vote, or will he be forcibly removed after weeks of this nonsensical saga?

    Depends. If he loses Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania, it's over and he won't get the support to carry on. If he somehow wins Arizona and Nevada, I think he'll keep up the fight to try and take back Pennsylvania.
    He has lost Arizona, no doubt about it... I don't see why he should lose PA, seeing he has a sizeable lead with 91% of the votes in.
    The votes still to count in Pennsylvania come from really, really Democrat areas, and are postal votes which skew even more Democrat. The last batch to be declared were 92% Biden. Biden is quite likely to win there.

    Arizona could slightly possibly still go Trump for the same reason in reverse, but much less likely.
    Yeah PA has been looking very good for Biden since yesterday - right now it is almost a dead cert. He needs 60% of the remaining votes to come in for him and they have been running closer to 80% - it might not even end up being close in the end.

    Georgia is right down to the wire though, it's extremely close. About 60k left to count with Trump 11.4k in the lead, as with PA most outstanding votes have been very Democrat leaning. One to watch (and we are expecting a result today).

    There's no "fight to take back Pennsylvania" that makes any real sense anyway - they were previously wrangling over votes arrived after election day (but postmarked on or before) before, but the votes they're counting now still all arrived in time.

    IMV the lawsuits he's putting in now are just so he can turn around and say he's been robbed later.

    Also, the BBC coverage has been rubbish.
    If he really is being played by the Russians as many claim, wittingly or not, it would be a pretty predictable reaction to bring in the lawyers and help undermine faith in the democratic process even further.

    It seems even the Republican Party are refusing to back him in the law suits much to his annoyance. Either they'll be glad to see him go or they realise the damage it will do to the process.

  • Pross said:

    So what's the outcome then... is he going to concede grumbling about the injustice of the postal vote, or will he be forcibly removed after weeks of this nonsensical saga?

    Depends. If he loses Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania, it's over and he won't get the support to carry on. If he somehow wins Arizona and Nevada, I think he'll keep up the fight to try and take back Pennsylvania.
    He has lost Arizona, no doubt about it... I don't see why he should lose PA, seeing he has a sizeable lead with 91% of the votes in.
    The votes still to count in Pennsylvania come from really, really Democrat areas, and are postal votes which skew even more Democrat. The last batch to be declared were 92% Biden. Biden is quite likely to win there.

    Arizona could slightly possibly still go Trump for the same reason in reverse, but much less likely.
    Yeah PA has been looking very good for Biden since yesterday - right now it is almost a dead cert. He needs 60% of the remaining votes to come in for him and they have been running closer to 80% - it might not even end up being close in the end.

    Georgia is right down to the wire though, it's extremely close. About 60k left to count with Trump 11.4k in the lead, as with PA most outstanding votes have been very Democrat leaning. One to watch (and we are expecting a result today).

    There's no "fight to take back Pennsylvania" that makes any real sense anyway - they were previously wrangling over votes arrived after election day (but postmarked on or before) before, but the votes they're counting now still all arrived in time.

    IMV the lawsuits he's putting in now are just so he can turn around and say he's been robbed later.

    Also, the BBC coverage has been rubbish.
    If he really is being played by the Russians as many claim, wittingly or not, it would be a pretty predictable reaction to bring in the lawyers and help undermine faith in the democratic process even further.

    It seems even the Republican Party are refusing to back him in the law suits much to his annoyance. Either they'll be glad to see him go or they realise the damage it will do to the process.

    They don't like losing, so I guess they don't see a reason why they should lose twice?
  • Pross said:

    So what's the outcome then... is he going to concede grumbling about the injustice of the postal vote, or will he be forcibly removed after weeks of this nonsensical saga?

    Depends. If he loses Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania, it's over and he won't get the support to carry on. If he somehow wins Arizona and Nevada, I think he'll keep up the fight to try and take back Pennsylvania.
    He has lost Arizona, no doubt about it... I don't see why he should lose PA, seeing he has a sizeable lead with 91% of the votes in.
    The votes still to count in Pennsylvania come from really, really Democrat areas, and are postal votes which skew even more Democrat. The last batch to be declared were 92% Biden. Biden is quite likely to win there.

    Arizona could slightly possibly still go Trump for the same reason in reverse, but much less likely.
    Yeah PA has been looking very good for Biden since yesterday - right now it is almost a dead cert. He needs 60% of the remaining votes to come in for him and they have been running closer to 80% - it might not even end up being close in the end.

    Georgia is right down to the wire though, it's extremely close. About 60k left to count with Trump 11.4k in the lead, as with PA most outstanding votes have been very Democrat leaning. One to watch (and we are expecting a result today).

    There's no "fight to take back Pennsylvania" that makes any real sense anyway - they were previously wrangling over votes arrived after election day (but postmarked on or before) before, but the votes they're counting now still all arrived in time.

    IMV the lawsuits he's putting in now are just so he can turn around and say he's been robbed later.

    Also, the BBC coverage has been rubbish.
    If he really is being played by the Russians as many claim, wittingly or not, it would be a pretty predictable reaction to bring in the lawyers and help undermine faith in the democratic process even further.

    It seems even the Republican Party are refusing to back him in the law suits much to his annoyance. Either they'll be glad to see him go or they realise the damage it will do to the process.

    He's just getting mugs to send money for lawyers then keeping it; last chance to get their snouts in the trough....Where are these lawyers? What are they doing that's so spendy? Rudi Giuliani is already on the payroll...
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463
    At what point can he receive a visit from the plod regarding all the alleged misdemeanours that have come out during his Presidency?
  • Pross said:

    At what point can he receive a visit from the plod regarding all the alleged misdemeanours that have come out during his Presidency?

    Usually around 50 years. Stuff still coming out about Kennedy.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,328
    FFS! With all those people currently out of work you'd think they could muster enough to count votes within 24 hours. Not enough people that can count?
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,328
    Don't expect much news until Friday 18:00 GMT according to reporters in Nevada.
    Ah well, might as well switch off till then.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • pinkbikini
    pinkbikini Posts: 876
    edited November 2020
    Just watched Trump’s press conference. Body language, tone, content - he knows he’s gone. Watch for yourself - he clearly doesn’t have faith in his own statements/lies any more. Quite remarkable to watch. To think that this useless sock-puppet for the Republicans got as far as he did is incredible - I suspect he’s been told that GOP will no longer support him, hence his tone.
  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,104
    I'm assuming Trumps legal challenges are just face saving, possibly keeping the door open for a run at the Republican nomination next time round.

    There's no possibility he's trying to raise the temperature in the country and use it as a bargaining chip to get some kind of immunity from prosecution is there? He calms things down in return for certain assurances?
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    The order in which the states then the votes were counted really has driven the narrative.

    Meanwhile CNN walking the through the 269-269 finish
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    Trump's lead now 665 in Georgia

    Coopster was right.
    This is fun.
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • nickice
    nickice Posts: 2,439
    The Guardian live blog has basically turned into an anti-Trump opinion piece. I think they should rein it in a little. Not that anything they're saying is really wrong.
  • nickice said:

    The Guardian live blog has basically turned into an anti-Trump opinion piece. I think they should rein it in a little. Not that anything they're saying is really wrong.

    I've no doubt it is skewed a bit - it's the guardian, but the problem with Trump is that if you accurately describe what he is saying, and how factual it is, it automatically makes the reporting sound anti Trump.

  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,349
    I guess that Ryanair aren't reckoning Trump supporters are big users of international flights...

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Ryanair/status/1324301811331850240
  • I know it's entirely in character, but in retrospect, wasn't it a bit stupid to telegraph in advance that you would be claiming that counting votes after election day as suspicious regardless of evidence? All the news organisations have planned for how to cover it, even fox isn't buying.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463

    nickice said:

    The Guardian live blog has basically turned into an anti-Trump opinion piece. I think they should rein it in a little. Not that anything they're saying is really wrong.

    I've no doubt it is skewed a bit - it's the guardian, but the problem with Trump is that if you accurately describe what he is saying, and how factual it is, it automatically makes the reporting sound anti Trump.

    The BBC are constantly having to stress that Trump's claims have no evidence to back them up. The alternative would be not to report them at all but then they'd be accused of bias.
  • bobmcstuff
    bobmcstuff Posts: 11,435

    Pross said:

    So what's the outcome then... is he going to concede grumbling about the injustice of the postal vote, or will he be forcibly removed after weeks of this nonsensical saga?

    Depends. If he loses Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania, it's over and he won't get the support to carry on. If he somehow wins Arizona and Nevada, I think he'll keep up the fight to try and take back Pennsylvania.
    He has lost Arizona, no doubt about it... I don't see why he should lose PA, seeing he has a sizeable lead with 91% of the votes in.
    The votes still to count in Pennsylvania come from really, really Democrat areas, and are postal votes which skew even more Democrat. The last batch to be declared were 92% Biden. Biden is quite likely to win there.

    Arizona could slightly possibly still go Trump for the same reason in reverse, but much less likely.
    Yeah PA has been looking very good for Biden since yesterday - right now it is almost a dead cert. He needs 60% of the remaining votes to come in for him and they have been running closer to 80% - it might not even end up being close in the end.

    Georgia is right down to the wire though, it's extremely close. About 60k left to count with Trump 11.4k in the lead, as with PA most outstanding votes have been very Democrat leaning. One to watch (and we are expecting a result today).

    There's no "fight to take back Pennsylvania" that makes any real sense anyway - they were previously wrangling over votes arrived after election day (but postmarked on or before) before, but the votes they're counting now still all arrived in time.

    IMV the lawsuits he's putting in now are just so he can turn around and say he's been robbed later.

    Also, the BBC coverage has been rubbish.
    If he really is being played by the Russians as many claim, wittingly or not, it would be a pretty predictable reaction to bring in the lawyers and help undermine faith in the democratic process even further.

    It seems even the Republican Party are refusing to back him in the law suits much to his annoyance. Either they'll be glad to see him go or they realise the damage it will do to the process.

    They don't like losing, so I guess they don't see a reason why they should lose twice?
    Depends how charitable you are - I think most of them didn't really like Trump in the first place... It's like a turbo charged version of a second term president, the party has no reason to stand behind them any more.

    Georgia down to +463 Trump... It will end in recount territory.

    PA will probably not even be close in the end. Trump lead currently about 18k.

    I think Arizona might end up going Trump, they should not have called that. Nevada will go Biden though.