La Vuelta '15 #17 Burgos ITT **SPOILERS**

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Comments

  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    Even if Dumoulin gets dropped on the final climb of the remaining stages, he still has the descent to make the ground back up. And being close to 1000kg in weight, gravity is his friend.

    Id love to see J-Rod launching a long attack on one of the climbs and making it stick though.

    All it will take is a mechanical, or the TGA car coming to the front to whisk Dumoulin off at 70 km/h.
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    What I find very odd is Purito's poor TTing. Surely he should have identified that weakness and worked on it. He looked like he was riding a normal bike today, his position was nothing like the best TTers. That's just amateur.
  • Great stage for explaining to a new to cycling fan the difference between a good TT style and a poor one. J-Rod's position looked a bit amateurish TBH with Aru looking far better and Domoulin in a different league completely.

    Domoulin was sublime, the way he blew past Nieve was incredible. It's turned into a humdinger!
    @JaunePeril

    Winner of the Bike Radar Pro Race Wiggins Hour Prediction Competition
  • philbar72
    philbar72 Posts: 2,229
    If Dumoulin wins, he'll be only the third ever Dutch grand tour winner, ever. Only Jan Janssen and Joop Zoetemelk have (both Vuelta and TdF).

    I'm not convinced he will though.

    3 seconds is way too little.
    It's obviously close, and Astana will unleash all it has, but there's nothing particularly steep or challenging left. Certainly not compared to what they've already done. It can turn on a random bonus sprint or so, but nowhere where he's certain to be gapped. He gas a good chance I'd say.
    Agreed, he will need help, i reckon from others outside the Giant squad.

    still think there are a few twists and turns in this one...
  • SPTDW613_zps647c0872.jpg

    Looks reasonable to me and in other photos well, you can only do so much with his physique can't you. Who cares if he can't TT the best. That not is where he seeks his glory.

    vuelta2012_11_2.jpg

    Or from yesterday:
    305-PIC557146308.jpg

    On the other hand I dislike the preying mantis style. Not easy on the eye.
    015-PIC557136855.jpg

    Other side shots:
    http://www.steephill.tv/2015/vuelta-a-espana/photos/stage-17/
    Contador is the Greatest
  • SPTDW613_zps647c0872.jpg

    Looks reasonable to me and in other photos well, you can only do so much with his physique can't you. Who cares if he can't TT the best. That not is where he seeks his glory.

    I think a man with 4 GT podiums but no GT win probably cares.

    A GT should be balanced, not just a test of climbing ability - or as some Vueltas, a test of the ability to kick for the last 3km on a wall after a day cycling up a dual carriageway. The best stage racers have to be able to TT, and they have to be able to climb. A GT that doesn't test both is hardly worth the name.
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  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,695
    J-Rod is just another Schleck...
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • Or from yesterday:
    305-PIC557146308.jpg
    The stills don't do justice to the difference between Dumoulin and Rodriguez: one was absolutely static except on the steep climb, the other was moving around on the bike. Of course Purito won't be able to compete with his physique, but Aru (for once) looked better and produced a potentially Vuelta-winning performance.
  • timoid.
    timoid. Posts: 3,133
    What I find very odd is Purito's poor TTing. Surely he should have identified that weakness and worked on it. He looked like he was riding a normal bike today, his position was nothing like the best TTers. That's just amateur.

    For me it's a paradox. The fact that he is such a relatively poor TTer means that he is more believable as a bike rider, which makes me like him more, but obviously is not good for his GT chances.

    If he suddenly got good at it through "wind-tunnel testing" then it might make him win, but also make him look suspicious.

    Aru on the other hand...
    It's a little like wrestling a gorilla. You don't quit when you're tired. You quit when the gorilla is tired.
  • timoid.
    timoid. Posts: 3,133
    Aru might have guts or passion, but he is the least graceful bike rider there ever has been.

    I'll see your Aru and raise you one Fernando Escartin.


    Dammit, beat me to it.
    It's a little like wrestling a gorilla. You don't quit when you're tired. You quit when the gorilla is tired.
  • What I find very odd is Purito's poor TTing. Surely he should have identified that weakness and worked on it. He looked like he was riding a normal bike today, his position was nothing like the best TTers. That's just amateur.

    For me it's a paradox. The fact that he is such a relatively poor TTer means that he is more believable as a bike rider, which makes me like him more, but obviously is not good for his GT chances.

    If he suddenly got good at it through "wind-tunnel testing" then it might make him win, but also make him look suspicious.

    Aru on the other hand...



    Hmmmm.
  • Guilty by team association has to be among the worst ever forms of appraisal.

    Aru rode out of his skin and lost a huge two minutes yet people want to look on him with a beady eye. But then the guy who manages to be a MASSIVE 1 min ahead of 2nd place despite apparently adjusting his physique some to be more suited to the climbs and having heavy legs from two weeks of racing for GC is totally above suspicion.

    I mean Sicard and Quintana beat Aru.

    Stage 17 Results
    NED 1 DUMOULIN, Tom (GIANT - ALPECIN) 46:01
    POL 2 BODNAR, Maciej (TINKOFF - SAXO) + 1:04
    ESP 3 VALVERDE BELMONTE, Alejandro (MOVISTAR) + 1:08
    BLR 4 KIRYIENKA, Vasil (SKY) + 1:31
    FRA 5 COPPEL, Jerome (IAM CYCLING) + 1:32
    COL 6 QUINTANA ROJAS, Nairo Alexander (MOVISTAR) + 1:33
    FRA 7 SICARD, Romain (EUROPCAR) + 1:36
    POR 8 SANTOS SIMOES OLIVEIRA, Nelson Filipe (LAMPRE - MERIDA) + 1:38
    GBR 9 CUMMINGS, Stephen (MTN - QHUBEKA) + 1:40
    ITA 10 ARU, Fabio (ASTANA) + 1:53
    Contador is the Greatest
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,695
    Guilty by team association has to be among the worst ever forms of appraisal.

    As opposed to randomly making up rider weight, that's fine! :roll:
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • timoid.
    timoid. Posts: 3,133
    Guilty by team association has to be among the worst ever forms of appraisal.

    Aru rode out of his skin and lost a huge two minutes yet people want to look on him with a beady eye. But then the guy who manages to be a MASSIVE 1 min ahead of 2nd place despite apparently adjusting his physique some to be more suited to the climbs and having heavy legs from two weeks of racing for GC is totally above suspicion.

    I mean Sicard and Quintana beat Aru.

    Stage 17 Results
    NED 1 DUMOULIN, Tom (GIANT - ALPECIN) 46:01
    POL 2 BODNAR, Maciej (TINKOFF - SAXO) + 1:04
    ESP 3 VALVERDE BELMONTE, Alejandro (MOVISTAR) + 1:08
    BLR 4 KIRYIENKA, Vasil (SKY) + 1:31
    FRA 5 COPPEL, Jerome (IAM CYCLING) + 1:32
    COL 6 QUINTANA ROJAS, Nairo Alexander (MOVISTAR) + 1:33
    FRA 7 SICARD, Romain (EUROPCAR) + 1:36
    POR 8 SANTOS SIMOES OLIVEIRA, Nelson Filipe (LAMPRE - MERIDA) + 1:38
    GBR 9 CUMMINGS, Stephen (MTN - QHUBEKA) + 1:40
    ITA 10 ARU, Fabio (ASTANA) + 1:53


    Its not like he put a minute into Martin or Cancellara. This was a poor TT field.

    I'm actually coming around to Rick's way of thinking that this is a poor level of competition for the race. The class riders are either injured, dq'd, not taking part or knackered after the Tour.

    Also Quintana seems to do well at TTs. Always has.
    It's a little like wrestling a gorilla. You don't quit when you're tired. You quit when the gorilla is tired.
  • philbar72
    philbar72 Posts: 2,229
    What I find very odd is Purito's poor TTing. Surely he should have identified that weakness and worked on it. He looked like he was riding a normal bike today, his position was nothing like the best TTers. That's just amateur.

    his physiological shape just isn't suited to TTing. he'd need a 46 frame with 650c wheels to get a good position...
  • Guilty by team association has to be among the worst ever forms of appraisal.

    As opposed to randomly making up rider weight, that's fine! :roll:


    Dumoulin weighs more than Johnny Vegas, apparently
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    Those pictures really don't do it justice. Martin, Wiggo, Froome, Dumoulin all have a very high seat position, a great aero tuck, little or no movement on the shoulders/arms/lower back.

    Purito is upright as if he is pottering in the park with his kids. Surely if your obvious main issue is with TTing, then you would have done something about it.
  • frenchfighter
    frenchfighter Posts: 30,642
    edited September 2015
    Its not like he put a minute into Martin or Cancellara. This was a poor TT field.

    I'm actually coming around to Rick's way of thinking that this is a poor level of competition for the race. The class riders are either injured, dq'd, not taking part or knackered after the Tour.

    Also Quintana seems to do well at TTs. Always has.

    Hold on a second, just so I am clear. It is perfectly reasonable that he should smash the competition in the TT and you cite proper flatland TT riders as competition who cannot ride up mountains that fast. But at the same time it is perfectly reasonable that this same guy is able to be right up there on GC due to climbing with the best of them. Ok then. He is either a talent beyond what I have ever witnessed clean or I struggle to believe my eyes.
    Contador is the Greatest
  • Going into the stage Dumoulin was a 11/8 chance for Tour victory, Aru 15/8.

    Following TT, Aru 4/6 for Overall Victory, Dumoulin 13/8.

    So who "won" yesterday's stage. Did Dumoulin under perform, or Aru smash it?
  • timoid.
    timoid. Posts: 3,133
    Its not like he put a minute into Martin or Cancellara. This was a poor TT field.

    I'm actually coming around to Rick's way of thinking that this is a poor level of competition for the race. The class riders are either injured, dq'd, not taking part or knackered after the Tour.

    Also Quintana seems to do well at TTs. Always has.

    Hold on a second, just so I am clear. It is perfectly reasonable that he should smash the competition in the TT and you cite proper flatland TT riders as competition who cannot ride up mountains that fast. But at the same time it is perfectly reasonable that this same guy is able to be right up there on GC due to climbing with the best of them. Ok then. He is either a talent beyond what I have ever witnessed clean or I struggle to believe my eyes.

    But he didn't smash Aru. And he only put a minute into Valverde (who is no TT monster)

    You have difficulty believing a 70kg man can climb mountains quickly. Fair enough.

    Others have difficulty that a mountain goat can stay within 2 mins of a TT monster.

    Nobody is being particularly consistent.

    What I judge a little more is the ethos of their respective teams. Giant and its predecessors rose up to give a clean choice after the Rabobank fiasco. Astana is the rebadging of dirty dirty ONCE, is run by a confirmed doper and has had more positives than any other Pro Tour team in the last 12 months.
    It's a little like wrestling a gorilla. You don't quit when you're tired. You quit when the gorilla is tired.
  • Richmond Racer 2
    Richmond Racer 2 Posts: 4,698
    edited September 2015
    Its not like he put a minute into Martin or Cancellara. This was a poor TT field.

    I'm actually coming around to Rick's way of thinking that this is a poor level of competition for the race. The class riders are either injured, dq'd, not taking part or knackered after the Tour.

    Also Quintana seems to do well at TTs. Always has.

    Hold on a second, just so I am clear. It is perfectly reasonable that he should smash the competition in the TT and you cite proper flatland TT riders as competition who cannot ride up mountains that fast. But at the same time it is perfectly reasonable that this same guy is able to be right up there on GC due to climbing with the best of them. Ok then. He is either a talent beyond what I have ever witnessed clean or I struggle to believe my eyes.

    But he didn't smash Aru. And he only put a minute into Valverde (who is no TT monster)

    You have difficulty believing a 70kg man can climb mountains quickly. Fair enough.

    Others have difficulty that a mountain goat can stay within 2 mins of a TT monster.

    Nobody is being particularly consistent.

    What I judge a little more is the ethos of their respective teams. Giant and its predecessors rose up to give a clean choice after the Rabobank fiasco. Astana is the rebadging of dirty dirty ONCE, is run by a confirmed doper and has had more positives than any other Pro Tour team in the last 12 months.


    Valverde has a very decent record in TTs, actually.

    But anyway the argument that riders who can TT with the best shouldnt be able to hang with the best climbers, really does need to put out with the rest of the rubbish.
  • Give me a break. 1 min is smashing the opposition. Absolutely it is. The gap from 1st-2ns was 1.04 and the gap from 2nd to 12th was 1.24.
    Contador is the Greatest
  • inseine
    inseine Posts: 5,788
    I guess it's possible for people to perform beyond what you'd expect of them given their physical attributes.

    2009 Tour
    Many previous Tours have contained more than 100 kilometres of individual time trials. This year, there are only 55.

    But after the ride of the maillot jaune Thursday in Annecy, around a 40.5-kilometre lakeside route hardly made for a 62-kilo featherweight like Contador, it seems the 26-year-old would not have cared if there were 1,000 kilometres of racing against the clock.

    The 2009 Tour de France can no longer be called a race for climbers. It has become a race for Alberto Contador. Because in this specialised discipline the French call contre-la-montre, he beat all the time trial specialists, all the rouleurs, all the climbers… He beat everyone.
  • timoid.
    timoid. Posts: 3,133
    Give me a break. 1 min is smashing the opposition. Absolutely it is. The gap from 1st-2ns was 1.04 and the gap from 2nd to 12th was 1.24.

    He put 1'42" into Bodnar in the WC last year (10km extra length), so 1'04" if anything is below par.
    It's a little like wrestling a gorilla. You don't quit when you're tired. You quit when the gorilla is tired.

  • I'd say decent. Not brilliant. A gap of a minute to Tom D feels about right.[/quote]


    In fact, given the way Piti's been looking on the previous few mountain stages, I was surprised it wasnt more (sorry, trying to argue with myself here!)
  • bobmcstuff
    bobmcstuff Posts: 11,435
    I guess it's possible for people to perform beyond what you'd expect of them given their physical attributes.

    2009 Tour
    Many previous Tours have contained more than 100 kilometres of individual time trials. This year, there are only 55.

    But after the ride of the maillot jaune Thursday in Annecy, around a 40.5-kilometre lakeside route hardly made for a 62-kilo featherweight like Contador, it seems the 26-year-old would not have cared if there were 1,000 kilometres of racing against the clock.

    The 2009 Tour de France can no longer be called a race for climbers. It has become a race for Alberto Contador. Because in this specialised discipline the French call contre-la-montre, he beat all the time trial specialists, all the rouleurs, all the climbers… He beat everyone.

    And as we all know Contador was definitely 100% clean then ;)

  • But anyway the argument that riders who can TT with the best shouldnt be able to hang with the best climbers, really does need to put out with the rest of the rubbish.

    This.

    If you look at how Dumoulin rode in the mountains he extracted every advantage his TTing skills could give him. He knew exactly where his limits were and never exceeded them. He never went into the red, except in the final metres. He didn't chase down attacks, he slowly clawed them back. He dropped off on the steep stuff, and made ground up on the flatter sections. This is textbook stuff.

    This is in contrast to the climbers, who were putting in digs, closing gaps and sparring. On each occasion they risked going into the red and not being able to recover.

    It takes far less effort to ride the climb at your own pace, within your limit, without blowing up. This is basic.
    Warning No formatter is installed for the format
  • I guess it's possible for people to perform beyond what you'd expect of them given their physical attributes.

    2009 Tour
    Many previous Tours have contained more than 100 kilometres of individual time trials. This year, there are only 55.

    But after the ride of the maillot jaune Thursday in Annecy, around a 40.5-kilometre lakeside route hardly made for a 62-kilo featherweight like Contador, it seems the 26-year-old would not have cared if there were 1,000 kilometres of racing against the clock.

    The 2009 Tour de France can no longer be called a race for climbers. It has become a race for Alberto Contador. Because in this specialised discipline the French call contre-la-montre, he beat all the time trial specialists, all the rouleurs, all the climbers… He beat everyone.

    And as we all know Contador was definitely 100% clean then ;)


    All clean and shiny and pure
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Race is flattering Tom.

    Perfect practice for the guy but this ride would be top 10 overall on TdF GC not podium.