BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴
Comments
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Getting close - postal voting papers turned up today.
I am still 'in' but with the recognition that there are major flaws in the clubm"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
That's the problem though, isn't it? By being in "inner" people think you endorse everything about the EU, good and not-so-good.
I was going to say "bad" then, but thought that might set me up for a kicking.Ecrasez l’infame0 -
Yeah, I'll be voting to remain mainly on the basis of 'better the devil you know'. I think the economy is too fragile to risk change at the moment. But that certainly doesn''t mean I want further expansion of the EU or a loss of our powers. The best result IMHO would be a very close vote to remain and talk of another referendum in a few years as that might provide the impetus to give other EU nations a bit of a shock. I doubt it will happen though.
Judging by my Facebook feed and signs / posters locally it's looking more likely we'll get an exit vote but I think that's a local demographic thing (weird really considering the funding South Wales gets from the EU). It could also be that being openly in the remain camp has the same stigma as being openly a Tory voter which I think led to their shock majority last year.0 -
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Pross wrote:Yeah, I'll be voting to remain mainly on the basis of 'better the devil you know'. I think the economy is too fragile to risk change at the moment. But that certainly doesn''t mean I want further expansion of the EU or a loss of our powers. The best result IMHO would be a very close vote to remain and talk of another referendum in a few years as that might provide the impetus to give other EU nations a bit of a shock. I doubt it will happen though.
Judging by my Facebook feed and signs / posters locally it's looking more likely we'll get an exit vote but I think that's a local demographic thing (weird really considering the funding South Wales gets from the EU). It could also be that being openly in the remain camp has the same stigma as being openly a Tory voter which I think led to their shock majority last year.
Facebook is a bit of an echo chamber.
If you were to read mine you'd think it was 100% remain and anyone who didn't was a devil worshiper.0 -
I guess that's why I need needed to qualify my voting intention, in case people had me down as a slavish EurophileBelgianBeerGeek wrote:That's the problem though, isn't it? By being in "inner" people think you endorse everything about the EU, good and not-so-good.
I was going to say "bad" then, but thought that might set me up for a kicking.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
BelgianBeerGeek wrote:That's the problem though, isn't it? By being in "inner" people think you endorse everything about the EU, good and not-so-good.
I was going to say "bad" then, but thought that might set me up for a kicking.
That is certainly how I see the rest of the EU seeing it if the country votes to remain. They will disregard the vote split. Along with our PM also arguing for remaining, the next time any government official walks into an EU meeting with an opinion not of the EU view (s)he will be ignored0 -
Pross wrote:ddraver wrote:oh and apparently I do get a vote...
Seems like a bit like asking turkeys if they want to keep Christmas but I can imagine a few ex-pats down in the Costas voting instinctively to leave then finding they have to go back to Blighty
...yes I ve seen a few bits like that
I had honestly assumed that I didnt get a vote, I didnt even bother trying to register, it must be from the GE.We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
- @ddraver0 -
This article appears to offer a reasonably balanced view on the situation...0
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Coopster the 1st wrote:BelgianBeerGeek wrote:That's the problem though, isn't it? By being in "inner" people think you endorse everything about the EU, good and not-so-good.
I was going to say "bad" then, but thought that might set me up for a kicking.
That is certainly how I see the rest of the EU seeing it if the country votes to remain. They will disregard the vote split. Along with our PM also arguing for remaining, the next time any government official walks into an EU meeting with an opinion not of the EU view (s)he will be ignored
maybe we could send them all on a negotiation course as it does seem we could do better at fighting our own corner0 -
JoeNobody wrote:This article appears to offer a reasonably balanced view on the situation...
I seem to have hit my daily/weekly? allotment of FT articles.
This is a good look at the campaigns - mainly where OUT has failed and what Remain needs to do to get over the line
http://www.economist.com/blogs/bagehot/ ... are-coming0 -
Does anyone happen to know how the voting stats will be compiled? I know the Scots have said a vote to leave will trigger another UK referendum. I presume this is if the Scots are up for remaining.
Just curious really. Almost everyone I've met here in Hampshire seems really up for leaving. But as Pross said, some parts of the UK might be better looking at which side their bread is buttered.Ecrasez l’infame0 -
I think is going to be interesting because generally people don't seem to like to admit to being a UKIPper and trying to get people to say they are anti-immigration with a camera pointing in their face seems to be really difficult judging by items on Sky/BBC...and yet many people I chat to seem to want to 'come out' and admit they are voting to leave, specifically because of immigration. The anonymity of the ballot box will be a very different place to the High St so this one may be the classic case where the pollsters get it completely wrong...or maybe not!0
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I d go along with that, i know so few people who will vote IN, its almost embarrassing! and the number one reason is immigration, this, and the notion of "take Control"
though how anyone can imagine the french stepping up their border controls so we have less migrants crossing the channel (which we will end up rescuing and allowing to stay here) after we leave is living in dream land.
for me, cameron has played fast and loose with our nations future, just so he could win a GE, so i hope i m wrong and that the UK can succeed on its own, very quickly.0 -
https://twitter.com/benphillips76/statu ... 3252793345
You really want to associate yourself with weirdos in balaclavas?0 -
Rick Chasey wrote:
You really want to associate yourself with weirdos in balaclavas?
there must be a lot about.....
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... ll-reveals0 -
There is a very small part of me that would love to see Cameron and Osborne lose. Just because it would be the first time they'd ever lost anything and the lack of comprehension would be hilarious...
...probably not worth it in the long run though...We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
- @ddraver0 -
It is really crazy that after so many third party experts saying it will be really quite bad if the UK leaves, they just get ignored.
It's shameful really. The UK mocks Trump supporters but to my mind it's no different.
Why do you guys think the BoE says unanimously it'll be bad?0 -
And before anyone comes up with the "they didn't predict the crash" let me give you an analogy.
If you eat a pizza every hour chances are you'll put on weight, but you won't be able to predict what you weigh in 20 years time.
And that of course is excluding the paradox that if crashes were predictable then as soon as they were about to happen people with money would pull their money out to save themselves, thus causing a crash...0 -
Funny thing is that I did predict the crash and acted accordingly.
No one listened to me then, no one listens to me now.
I reckon we are goosed either way FWTW.The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Rick Chasey wrote:It is really crazy that after so many third party experts saying it will be really quite bad if the UK leaves, they just get ignored.
It's shameful really. The UK mocks Trump supporters but to my mind it's no different.
Why do you guys think the BoE says unanimously it'll be bad?
Are they really third parties? Was Obama's speech his own view? Were the treasury views represented without bias?
Where are all the warnings about the state of the EU? Are we going to get these on June 24th?
The 'experts' are becoming ignored as the general public are or have lost trust in them. They have got two huge calls wrong recently, the banking crisis and whether the UK should join the Euro. These are way bigger misses than any volatility a brexit will cause. Ignoring the banking crisis, the view of the man in the pub is that he is 1-0 up ahead of the experts as he called the Euro right. The view that they are 'establishment' is also becoming more apparent and throughout history people have never trusted that the 'establishment' put the common people interest first.
All this referendum has done is shown up politicians on both sides of the argument to lie and use what tactics to influence or scare the voter. They are treating us with contempt. I no longer trust Cameron or Osborne with how they have presented and pushed the 'facts' in this referendum particular after they have changed their tune in last 6 months. All there fear statements have done is increased any economic risks of leaving. That is hugely irresponsible IMO. The leave campaign have presented 'facts' the same irresponsible way. All this has done is increase the gap between politicians and the people.
The same 'tactic' was used in the Scottish referendum. I was outside to that vote so did not take much of a view but can now see what is being done and how fear is being used to try to influence us.
The BoE deserves its own paragraph on its own. I now expect the BoE governor to present his economic views on each political parties manifesto in the run up to the 2020 election. Why is that any difference to now? He is coming out on one side of the argument. He has provided no analysis of the Euro and EU countries. Doing that would at least remove the insinuation that he is part of the establishment and is presenting a views because of that.0 -
I think Cameron and his cronies looked at the best way of winning the vote (which was a 'must win' for Cameron on a personal level) and promptly decided that trying to sell the benefits of staying in was not going to work so, instead, they seem to have concentrated on providing reasons not to leave. I have found the debate very disappointing as we face the prospect of the general population voting not to leave rather than actively staying in. Which all means the debate will not go away anytime soon but keep on and on gnawing away at British society causing division for years to come.
Politics at its very finest, with a net result of leaving generations of voters feeling disengaged with the whole circus.0 -
PBlakeney wrote:Funny thing is that I did predict the crash and acted accordingly.
No one listened to me then, no one listens to me now.
I reckon we are goosed either way FWTW.
Could I ask how you acted accordingly? genuine question as most people I know who benefited fluked it through having tracker mortgages0 -
Are the views really third party? They are in the BoE. By law they have to be.
As for the calls, re the crash I've already dealt with that above and re joining the single currency, the ERM wasn't advised by economists and was pushed through anyway, hence black Wednesday.
In 97 the treasury analysed the situation and decided that conditions were not right for joining the Euro so they didn't. That's seen, rightly, as an economically sound decision. That time people listened to the experts and it came out ok.0 -
Bobbinogs wrote:I think Cameron and his cronies looked at the best way of winning the vote (which was a 'must win' for Cameron on a personal level) and promptly decided that trying to sell the benefits of staying in was not going to work so, instead, they seem to have concentrated on providing reasons not to leave. I have found the debate very disappointing as we face the prospect of the general population voting not to leave rather than actively staying in. Which all means the debate will not go away anytime soon but keep on and on gnawing away at British society causing division for years to come.
Politics at its very finest, with a net result of leaving generations of voters feeling disengaged with the whole circus.
Cameron's problem is "getting the vote out" the overwhelming majority of people are instinctively in favour of staying in but will they actually cast their vote. I am not saying it is the morally right thing to do but explains their motivation.0 -
Got my investments to cash at hand and bought into shares at the bottom.Surrey Commuter wrote:PBlakeney wrote:Funny thing is that I did predict the crash and acted accordingly.
No one listened to me then, no one listens to me now.
I reckon we are goosed either way FWTW.
Could I ask how you acted accordingly? genuine question as most people I know who benefited fluked it through having tracker mortgages
Then resold them when the market topped 7000. Nice.
Ready to buy in again on the 23rd before the bounce following an In vote.
Also just got some gold as the price was adjusted/dropped significantly.The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Coopster the 1st wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:It is really crazy that after so many third party experts saying it will be really quite bad if the UK leaves, they just get ignored.
It's shameful really. The UK mocks Trump supporters but to my mind it's no different.
Why do you guys think the BoE says unanimously it'll be bad?
Are they really third parties? Was Obama's speech his own view? Were the treasury views represented without bias?
Where are all the warnings about the state of the EU? Are we going to get these on June 24th?
The 'experts' are becoming ignored as the general public are or have lost trust in them. They have got two huge calls wrong recently, the banking crisis and whether the UK should join the Euro. These are way bigger misses than any volatility a brexit will cause. Ignoring the banking crisis, the view of the man in the pub is that he is 1-0 up ahead of the experts as he called the Euro right. The view that they are 'establishment' is also becoming more apparent and throughout history people have never trusted that the 'establishment' put the common people interest first.
All this referendum has done is shown up politicians on both sides of the argument to lie and use what tactics to influence or scare the voter. They are treating us with contempt. I no longer trust Cameron or Osborne with how they have presented and pushed the 'facts' in this referendum particular after they have changed their tune in last 6 months. All there fear statements have done is increased any economic risks of leaving. That is hugely irresponsible IMO. The leave campaign have presented 'facts' the same irresponsible way. All this has done is increase the gap between politicians and the people.
The same 'tactic' was used in the Scottish referendum. I was outside to that vote so did not take much of a view but can now see what is being done and how fear is being used to try to influence us.
The BoE deserves its own paragraph on its own. I now expect the BoE governor to present his economic views on each political parties manifesto in the run up to the 2020 election. Why is that any difference to now? He is coming out on one side of the argument. He has provided no analysis of the Euro and EU countries. Doing that would at least remove the insinuation that he is part of the establishment and is presenting a views because of that.
Who do you think wrote Obamas speech for him?
The Maastricht Treaty of 1992 gave us an opt-out of the Euro so not sure I count that as recent history. I am not sure it is cut and dried that joining the EU would have been bad for the UK economy and either way leaving the EU will probably be far more detrimental.
People do not need hypothesis for asessing the impact of being a member of the EU.
The "bastards" have been campaigning "out" for at least two decades why do you think they have failed to put together a coherent economic argument in that time? Yesterday Gove/Johnson announced that we would have an Australian Points System of immigration within three years of an out vote... why have they not been announcing similar policies? s an aside this will preclude us from having a Swiss/Norway trading relationship with the EU.
As you have such contempt for the UK establishment why do you want to hand them more power?0 -
PBlakeney wrote:
Got my investments to cash at hand and bought into shares at the bottom.Surrey Commuter wrote:PBlakeney wrote:Funny thing is that I did predict the crash and acted accordingly.
No one listened to me then, no one listens to me now.
I reckon we are goosed either way FWTW.
Could I ask how you acted accordingly? genuine question as most people I know who benefited fluked it through having tracker mortgages
Then resold them when the market topped 7000. Nice.
Ready to buy in again on the 23rd before the bounce following an In vote.
Also just got some gold as the price was adjusted/dropped significantly.
Chapeau monsieur! you are obviously a far wiser man than I but you could see better volatility before the 23rd on the back of rogue opinion polls.0
