BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴
Comments
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rick_chasey said:
He got quite some heat for saying that on here last time I believe.
He was wrong on his employment prediction, but his general pessimism back then seems not to have been too far out.0 -
That’s not a Brexit thing. Entire western labour market is super tight.briantrumpet said:rick_chasey said:He got quite some heat for saying that on here last time I believe.
He was wrong on his employment prediction, but his general pessimism back then seems not to have been too far out.0 -
rick_chasey said:
That’s not a Brexit thing. Entire western labour market is super tight.briantrumpet said:rick_chasey said:He got quite some heat for saying that on here last time I believe.
He was wrong on his employment prediction, but his general pessimism back then seems not to have been too far out.
I guess he hadn't/couldn't have factored in the effect of how many people have not returned to the workforce post-pandemic.
Are there any other factors, worldwide, that have shrunk the available workforce?0 -
IIRC Carney got a serious shoeing in various quarters for his claim that the German economy was now 25% larger relatively than the UK’s post-Brexit. There were some quite heavyweight pro-remain economists involved in the shoeing as there were some very contentious, cherry-picked assumptions involved involving exchange rates. He’s been very quiet about this since the GBP exchange rates have recovered since the depths of the truss era, where he conveniently picked his end point.rick_chasey said:He got quite some heat for saying that on here last time I believe.
His general pre-referendum pessimism is warranted, but as with some on the remain side, he has overplayed his hand somewhat. I’m only one data point, but despite being pro-Carney from his BoE days and very sympathetic to his side of the Brexit argument, I no longer take him seriously.1 -
Yeah terrible fertilitybriantrumpet said:rick_chasey said:
That’s not a Brexit thing. Entire western labour market is super tight.briantrumpet said:rick_chasey said:He got quite some heat for saying that on here last time I believe.
He was wrong on his employment prediction, but his general pessimism back then seems not to have been too far out.
I guess he hadn't/couldn't have factored in the effect of how many people have not returned to the workforce post-pandemic.
Are there any other factors, worldwide, that have shrunk the available workforce?
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wallace_and_gromit said:
IIRC Carney got a serious shoeing in various quarters for his claim that the German economy was now 25% larger relatively than the UK’s post-Brexit. There were some quite heavyweight pro-remain economists involved in the shoeing as there were some very contentious, cherry-picked assumptions involved involving exchange rates. He’s been very quiet about this since the GBP exchange rates have recovered since the depths of the truss era, where he conveniently picked his end point.rick_chasey said:He got quite some heat for saying that on here last time I believe.
His general pre-referendum pessimism is warranted, but as with some on the remain side, he has overplayed his hand somewhat. I’m only one data point, but despite being pro-Carney from his BoE days and very sympathetic to his side of the Brexit argument, I no longer take him seriously.
I think that the significance is less in exactly what Carney said & is saying than in the fact the Telegraph are headlining the opinion without shooting him down. I see that Tobias Ellwood has quoted it approvingly.
If (and if it's a big if) the consequences of Brexit can be discussed in pragmatic terms, especially in the once-Remainery-and-then-very-Brexity Telegraph, then perhaps sensible mitigations can be negotiated in 2025, and subsequently a recalibration/resetting of the UK-EU relationship towards something that benefits both parties.
It starts to make me wonder if this stupid Brexit was the only way for the mirage of how the UK could be a major player in its own right outside of a major trade bloc could be punctured (if one can puncture mirages). If so, that would be the only worthwhile benefit of Brexit I can think of.0 -
Agree, he has lost a lot of fredibility after his Germany vs UK growth claim, which was a major piece of Eurobollox. Also it is clear that he is not objective or neutral.wallace_and_gromit said:
IIRC Carney got a serious shoeing in various quarters for his claim that the German economy was now 25% larger relatively than the UK’s post-Brexit. There were some quite heavyweight pro-remain economists involved in the shoeing as there were some very contentious, cherry-picked assumptions involved involving exchange rates. He’s been very quiet about this since the GBP exchange rates have recovered since the depths of the truss era, where he conveniently picked his end point.rick_chasey said:He got quite some heat for saying that on here last time I believe.
His general pre-referendum pessimism is warranted, but as with some on the remain side, he has overplayed his hand somewhat. I’m only one data point, but despite being pro-Carney from his BoE days and very sympathetic to his side of the Brexit argument, I no longer take him seriously."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
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I think this is closer to the realitybriantrumpet said:
https://telegraph.co.uk/columnists/2023/05/09/rejoining-the-eu-is-deluded/"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Stevo_666 said:
I think this is closer to the realitybriantrumpet said:
https://telegraph.co.uk/columnists/2023/05/09/rejoining-the-eu-is-deluded/
Ah yes, that bastion of objectivity, the Remainer-Brexit-whoknowswhatnext Telegraph.
Anyway, the polls still cheer me up, as they are what they are. Rather reinforces the point of keeping an optimistic mindset about pragmatism and carrying on persuasion (seeing as it seems to have worked so far), rather than this fatalistic "Oh, it's a bit shït, but its too late now" attitude that Brexiters seem to have adopted. Sheesh, even Farage admits that Brexit has failed.0 -
I can’t see the eu letting the U.K. rejoin until there is clear evidence that the eurosceptic lunatics can’t ever take over the asylum again. Rejoining the single market etc seems as good as it’s likely to get in the medium term.
And in 10-15 years time, there will be clear evidence as to the economic impacts (at the moment there’s too much of a post-Covid and Ukraine impact to isolate the Brexit impact) so the decision either way will be much less controversial than it would be now. Also, post-Brexit immigration policy will have settled down by then and it may be a lot harder to sell being out of the eu as a “magic bullet” re controlling immigration.
Caveat - My predictions as to how Brexit negotiations would go were spectacularly naive as they were based on the assumption that the U.K. would act with intelligence and integrity. So the predictions above may be nonsense!0 -
From the EUs perspective, letting the UK rejoin would be a major win. There were nascent movements against the EU in a few countries; despite reporting in the UK none were very large in the scheme of things but Brexit has killed all stone dead. If the UK admitted its mistake and rejoined that just hammers further nails in that coffin.
Much of the leave case was based on a "the EU is unstable and is about to collapse" or a "the EU economy is a basket case we're better off out". At the moment, the EU looks a bastion of stability and dynamism vs the UK, and as long as that remains the case, there will be noises to rejoin.0 -
To rejoin with a deal much worse than the one we had would be the ultimate admission of stupidity. A good trade deal is as good as we can hope for, and good is relative.The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
LOL - he was right about Brexit and remains one of the most high profile and credible voices on macro economics.Stevo_666 said:
Agree, he has lost a lot of fredibility after his Germany vs UK growth claim, which was a major piece of Eurobollox. Also it is clear that he is not objective or neutral.wallace_and_gromit said:
IIRC Carney got a serious shoeing in various quarters for his claim that the German economy was now 25% larger relatively than the UK’s post-Brexit. There were some quite heavyweight pro-remain economists involved in the shoeing as there were some very contentious, cherry-picked assumptions involved involving exchange rates. He’s been very quiet about this since the GBP exchange rates have recovered since the depths of the truss era, where he conveniently picked his end point.rick_chasey said:He got quite some heat for saying that on here last time I believe.
His general pre-referendum pessimism is warranted, but as with some on the remain side, he has overplayed his hand somewhat. I’m only one data point, but despite being pro-Carney from his BoE days and very sympathetic to his side of the Brexit argument, I no longer take him seriously.0 -
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super_davo said:
From the EUs perspective, letting the UK rejoin would be a major win. There were nascent movements against the EU in a few countries; despite reporting in the UK none were very large in the scheme of things but Brexit has killed all stone dead. If the UK admitted its mistake and rejoined that just hammers further nails in that coffin.
Much of the leave case was based on a "the EU is unstable and is about to collapse" or a "the EU economy is a basket case we're better off out". At the moment, the EU looks a bastion of stability and dynamism vs the UK, and as long as that remains the case, there will be noises to rejoin.
This will have been behind Barnier's insistence that the door remains open. It's also why the loons want to diverge as much as possible as fast as possible, to make rejoining as problematic as possible. But it's also significant that Badenoch seems not to be one of those loons on the divergence front.
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'Has an agenda' or 'is not neutral' is just people what someone who can't think of a good argument says.rick_chasey said:Love how you have to be wrong to be considered neutral.
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
It’s like when Americans go “neutral” on gun control. “All I’m asking is you limit guns to mentally ill people to 5”0
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rjsterry said:
'Has an agenda' or 'is not neutral' is just people what someone who can't think of a good argument says.rick_chasey said:Love how you have to be wrong to be considered neutral.
It's almost like a person who was in charge of keeping a country solvent might not be 'neutral' or might 'have an agenda' when they see a group of people putting unsupportable strains on that country's economy. Perish the thought.0 -
Even with the nonsense he spouted about relative sizes of economies? That was painful to read.surrey_commuter said:
LOL - he was right about Brexit and remains one of the most high profile and credible voices on macro economics.Stevo_666 said:
Agree, he has lost a lot of fredibility after his Germany vs UK growth claim, which was a major piece of Eurobollox. Also it is clear that he is not objective or neutral.wallace_and_gromit said:
IIRC Carney got a serious shoeing in various quarters for his claim that the German economy was now 25% larger relatively than the UK’s post-Brexit. There were some quite heavyweight pro-remain economists involved in the shoeing as there were some very contentious, cherry-picked assumptions involved involving exchange rates. He’s been very quiet about this since the GBP exchange rates have recovered since the depths of the truss era, where he conveniently picked his end point.rick_chasey said:He got quite some heat for saying that on here last time I believe.
His general pre-referendum pessimism is warranted, but as with some on the remain side, he has overplayed his hand somewhat. I’m only one data point, but despite being pro-Carney from his BoE days and very sympathetic to his side of the Brexit argument, I no longer take him seriously.
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Have you what he spouted about the UKs growth rate/change in size of economy over time relative to Germany? I think all but the most naive EU flag shaggers saw through that.surrey_commuter said:
LOL - he was right about Brexit and remains one of the most high profile and credible voices on macro economics.Stevo_666 said:
Agree, he has lost a lot of fredibility after his Germany vs UK growth claim, which was a major piece of Eurobollox. Also it is clear that he is not objective or neutral.wallace_and_gromit said:
IIRC Carney got a serious shoeing in various quarters for his claim that the German economy was now 25% larger relatively than the UK’s post-Brexit. There were some quite heavyweight pro-remain economists involved in the shoeing as there were some very contentious, cherry-picked assumptions involved involving exchange rates. He’s been very quiet about this since the GBP exchange rates have recovered since the depths of the truss era, where he conveniently picked his end point.rick_chasey said:He got quite some heat for saying that on here last time I believe.
His general pre-referendum pessimism is warranted, but as with some on the remain side, he has overplayed his hand somewhat. I’m only one data point, but despite being pro-Carney from his BoE days and very sympathetic to his side of the Brexit argument, I no longer take him seriously."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
^That feels almost like you needed someone to come up with an argument against and got rescued by W&G.0
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Everyone who’s sensible recognises Britain is the only g7 country to not recover from the pandemic levels.Stevo_666 said:
Have you what he spouted about the UKs growth rate/change in size of economy over time relative to Germany? I think all but the most naive EU flag shaggers saw through that.surrey_commuter said:
LOL - he was right about Brexit and remains one of the most high profile and credible voices on macro economics.Stevo_666 said:
Agree, he has lost a lot of fredibility after his Germany vs UK growth claim, which was a major piece of Eurobollox. Also it is clear that he is not objective or neutral.wallace_and_gromit said:
IIRC Carney got a serious shoeing in various quarters for his claim that the German economy was now 25% larger relatively than the UK’s post-Brexit. There were some quite heavyweight pro-remain economists involved in the shoeing as there were some very contentious, cherry-picked assumptions involved involving exchange rates. He’s been very quiet about this since the GBP exchange rates have recovered since the depths of the truss era, where he conveniently picked his end point.rick_chasey said:He got quite some heat for saying that on here last time I believe.
His general pre-referendum pessimism is warranted, but as with some on the remain side, he has overplayed his hand somewhat. I’m only one data point, but despite being pro-Carney from his BoE days and very sympathetic to his side of the Brexit argument, I no longer take him seriously.0 -
But that’s down to a percent here or there. Carney was in the 25% region and failing epically. If he was that far wide of the mark as a brexiteer economist he would get a pasting here. Being generally on the right side of the argument re brexit and economics doesn’t mean that every brexit related economic argument you put forward is automatically correct.rick_chasey said:
Everyone who’s sensible recognises Britain is the only g7 country to not recover from the pandemic levels.Stevo_666 said:
Have you what he spouted about the UKs growth rate/change in size of economy over time relative to Germany? I think all but the most naive EU flag shaggers saw through that.surrey_commuter said:
LOL - he was right about Brexit and remains one of the most high profile and credible voices on macro economics.Stevo_666 said:
Agree, he has lost a lot of fredibility after his Germany vs UK growth claim, which was a major piece of Eurobollox. Also it is clear that he is not objective or neutral.wallace_and_gromit said:
IIRC Carney got a serious shoeing in various quarters for his claim that the German economy was now 25% larger relatively than the UK’s post-Brexit. There were some quite heavyweight pro-remain economists involved in the shoeing as there were some very contentious, cherry-picked assumptions involved involving exchange rates. He’s been very quiet about this since the GBP exchange rates have recovered since the depths of the truss era, where he conveniently picked his end point.rick_chasey said:He got quite some heat for saying that on here last time I believe.
His general pre-referendum pessimism is warranted, but as with some on the remain side, he has overplayed his hand somewhat. I’m only one data point, but despite being pro-Carney from his BoE days and very sympathetic to his side of the Brexit argument, I no longer take him seriously.
Probs most sensible to acknowledge Carney dropped a clanger on that point and move on!1 -
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Germany's GDP is below its prepandemic level.rick_chasey said:
Everyone who’s sensible recognises Britain is the only g7 country to not recover from the pandemic levels.Stevo_666 said:
Have you what he spouted about the UKs growth rate/change in size of economy over time relative to Germany? I think all but the most naive EU flag shaggers saw through that.surrey_commuter said:
LOL - he was right about Brexit and remains one of the most high profile and credible voices on macro economics.Stevo_666 said:
Agree, he has lost a lot of fredibility after his Germany vs UK growth claim, which was a major piece of Eurobollox. Also it is clear that he is not objective or neutral.wallace_and_gromit said:
IIRC Carney got a serious shoeing in various quarters for his claim that the German economy was now 25% larger relatively than the UK’s post-Brexit. There were some quite heavyweight pro-remain economists involved in the shoeing as there were some very contentious, cherry-picked assumptions involved involving exchange rates. He’s been very quiet about this since the GBP exchange rates have recovered since the depths of the truss era, where he conveniently picked his end point.rick_chasey said:He got quite some heat for saying that on here last time I believe.
His general pre-referendum pessimism is warranted, but as with some on the remain side, he has overplayed his hand somewhat. I’m only one data point, but despite being pro-Carney from his BoE days and very sympathetic to his side of the Brexit argument, I no longer take him seriously.1 -
That's not the point, as W&G has already explained.rick_chasey said:
Everyone who’s sensible recognises Britain is the only g7 country to not recover from the pandemic levels.Stevo_666 said:
Have you what he spouted about the UKs growth rate/change in size of economy over time relative to Germany? I think all but the most naive EU flag shaggers saw through that.surrey_commuter said:
LOL - he was right about Brexit and remains one of the most high profile and credible voices on macro economics.Stevo_666 said:
Agree, he has lost a lot of fredibility after his Germany vs UK growth claim, which was a major piece of Eurobollox. Also it is clear that he is not objective or neutral.wallace_and_gromit said:
IIRC Carney got a serious shoeing in various quarters for his claim that the German economy was now 25% larger relatively than the UK’s post-Brexit. There were some quite heavyweight pro-remain economists involved in the shoeing as there were some very contentious, cherry-picked assumptions involved involving exchange rates. He’s been very quiet about this since the GBP exchange rates have recovered since the depths of the truss era, where he conveniently picked his end point.rick_chasey said:He got quite some heat for saying that on here last time I believe.
His general pre-referendum pessimism is warranted, but as with some on the remain side, he has overplayed his hand somewhat. I’m only one data point, but despite being pro-Carney from his BoE days and very sympathetic to his side of the Brexit argument, I no longer take him seriously."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
He was wrong - the numbers he amended out with were bollox, as discussed some time back.rick_chasey said:He wasn’t wrong though was he? People just objected to the usefulness of the stat.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
The key point though is that a domestic economy is only partially affected by exchange rates. Evidence: 20% plus fall in crate post eu-ref eventually only resulted in a brief blip in the U.K. inflation rate to 4%. In Carney world, inflation would have been 20% higher (or 10% higher for two years etc.)rick_chasey said:He wasn’t wrong though was he? People just objected to the usefulness of the stat.
He’s not mentioned the improvement in the UK’s relative economic size since the exchange rate moved in sterling’s favour (circa 1.05 $ per £ to nearly 1.3 $ per £) which is very telling.
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