BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴
Comments
-
He agreed with me on the point I was making.Pross said:
Love the way you ignore the rest of the response.Stevo_666 said:
Thank you - we agree then. That's really the case I was making, but as expected too many seemed to take this as an assault on the apparently faultless EU arrangements that used to be in place.wallace_and_gromit said:
Definitely join it.Stevo_666 said:
But you are still connecting the two deals when it is not an either/or decision.wallace_and_gromit said:
I appreciate that and tbh, I’m more to your “non-pessimistic” view on the whole thing than many here. But even if the adverse impact of Brexit is over stated 2x and the benefit of the new deal understated 10x then the net impact is -2% plus 1% ie still a net negative.Stevo_666 said:
I am simply trying to bring a bit of perspective to it in terms of potential scale, if that helps to clarify the point.wallace_and_gromit said:
The quoted 0.08% of gdp benefit is the incremental impact not the overall value of trade with the countries concerned post-deal.Stevo_666 said:
Given that exports to CPTPP countries already exceed £60bn a year its hard to see how that estimate is anything other than conservative. Either that or the estimates of the impact from Brexit of 4% are likely overblown. And the estimate will be before you've taken into account likely new entrants to the CPTPP.monkimark said:Over 10 years according the the government's own figures
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65124741
‐----------------
And even with some gains in trading the government only estimates it will add 0.08% to the size of the economy in 10 years.
-----------------Stevo_666 said:
On what basis and over what period?briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:
I wish I could predict the future like you Brian. I've already set out the likely long term benefits, but you appear to be stuck in the old 'the only good trade deal is with the EU' mindset. Time to broaden your horizons I think.briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:More opinions
from the press which paint a positive picture...
The announcement that the UK is to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership is a huge achievement. It should not be underestimated. This will open up free trade between the UK and 11 economies in the Indo Pacific region. It means free trade not just with Australia and New Zealand but with countries like Japan, Canada and Mexico, as well as Singapore and Vietnam. It will in time prove transformational for the British economy.
These countries have a population of 500 million and a GDP of $9 trillion. Japan is the third largest economy in the world. Of the others, many are fast growing and progressive economies, and then there are the more traditional, stable, developed economies of Australia, Canada and Singapore.
The UK will be in a unique position. It already has a free trade agreement with the EU which may not be quite as liberal as being a member of the single market, but nevertheless gives the UK tariff and quota free access to the EU market, as well as being able to import from the EU duty-free. No country has freer trade with the EU than the UK. Add to that free trade with 500 million people in the Indo-Pacific and the UK has amongst the best trading arrangements of any country on earth.
At the moment, the UK’s trade with the CPTPP countries constitutes just 7.8 per cent of its total trade. Critics may think that is unimportant, but remember: these countries are some of the most economically dynamic on earth. It is estimated that by 2030, 65 per cent of the world’s middle-class consumers will be in the Indo Pacific region. So for the naysayers who think the CPTPP may not be important to the British economy, let me remind them that the growth on trade with those 11 economies is already running at around 8 per cent a year.
Once trade barriers are torn down, expect that trade to grow a great deal faster. And while we have no idea how well British exporters will fare in those Indo Pacific markets, the opportunities have now opened up as never before. Getting into the CPTPP is not just beneficial in the short-term, it is locking the British economy into the most economically dynamic region in the world. It constitutes a very serious investment in the future.
Added to the trade statistics, it is important to remember that UK service suppliers are already deeply integrated with the Indo Pacific region. UK service suppliers exported nearly £30 billion worth of services to CPTPP members in 2019.
Also a reminder that we do have a free trade deal with EU which is better than any other country, according to the article.
Not bad for a bunch of alleged f***wits
I wish I could get as glowing a report for improving my performance by 0.1% over the next decade.
0.08%
Alternatively can I borrow your time machine and travel to the future?
Also worth noting that it covers services which is a plus point given the size of the UK services sector.
I suspect you know this already though, being a bright “numbers man”.
So it’s easy to see why folk here do not share your enthusiasm. You can’t simply dismiss leaving the eu as a historical aberration; one of the reasons given for leaving was to be able to do big trade deals elsewhere, so the impact of leaving has to be factored into any assessment of the impact of a new deal.
Forget the EU for a minute, we have done what we have done and it isn't likely to change in the short or medium term. Based on what you know and looking just at the CPTPP, do you think we should go ahead and sign up it?"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
I couldn't be bothered to start a 'trade deal thread' and thought this one might be vaguely appropriate. And this thread needs a bit of help keep goingrjsterry said:
Could it be because you posted this in the Brexit thread? I mean you say that's all water under the bridge yet you've linked it to Brexit, backed up by an article in the Brexit-obsessed Telegraph.Stevo_666 said:
Thank you - we agree then. That's really the case I was making, but as expected too many seemed to take this as an assault on the apparently faultless EU arrangements that used to be in place.wallace_and_gromit said:
Definitely join it.Stevo_666 said:
But you are still connecting the two deals when it is not an either/or decision.wallace_and_gromit said:
I appreciate that and tbh, I’m more to your “non-pessimistic” view on the whole thing than many here. But even if the adverse impact of Brexit is over stated 2x and the benefit of the new deal understated 10x then the net impact is -2% plus 1% ie still a net negative.Stevo_666 said:
I am simply trying to bring a bit of perspective to it in terms of potential scale, if that helps to clarify the point.wallace_and_gromit said:
The quoted 0.08% of gdp benefit is the incremental impact not the overall value of trade with the countries concerned post-deal.Stevo_666 said:
Given that exports to CPTPP countries already exceed £60bn a year its hard to see how that estimate is anything other than conservative. Either that or the estimates of the impact from Brexit of 4% are likely overblown. And the estimate will be before you've taken into account likely new entrants to the CPTPP.monkimark said:Over 10 years according the the government's own figures
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65124741
‐----------------
And even with some gains in trading the government only estimates it will add 0.08% to the size of the economy in 10 years.
-----------------Stevo_666 said:
On what basis and over what period?briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:
I wish I could predict the future like you Brian. I've already set out the likely long term benefits, but you appear to be stuck in the old 'the only good trade deal is with the EU' mindset. Time to broaden your horizons I think.briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:More opinions
from the press which paint a positive picture...
The announcement that the UK is to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership is a huge achievement. It should not be underestimated. This will open up free trade between the UK and 11 economies in the Indo Pacific region. It means free trade not just with Australia and New Zealand but with countries like Japan, Canada and Mexico, as well as Singapore and Vietnam. It will in time prove transformational for the British economy.
These countries have a population of 500 million and a GDP of $9 trillion. Japan is the third largest economy in the world. Of the others, many are fast growing and progressive economies, and then there are the more traditional, stable, developed economies of Australia, Canada and Singapore.
The UK will be in a unique position. It already has a free trade agreement with the EU which may not be quite as liberal as being a member of the single market, but nevertheless gives the UK tariff and quota free access to the EU market, as well as being able to import from the EU duty-free. No country has freer trade with the EU than the UK. Add to that free trade with 500 million people in the Indo-Pacific and the UK has amongst the best trading arrangements of any country on earth.
At the moment, the UK’s trade with the CPTPP countries constitutes just 7.8 per cent of its total trade. Critics may think that is unimportant, but remember: these countries are some of the most economically dynamic on earth. It is estimated that by 2030, 65 per cent of the world’s middle-class consumers will be in the Indo Pacific region. So for the naysayers who think the CPTPP may not be important to the British economy, let me remind them that the growth on trade with those 11 economies is already running at around 8 per cent a year.
Once trade barriers are torn down, expect that trade to grow a great deal faster. And while we have no idea how well British exporters will fare in those Indo Pacific markets, the opportunities have now opened up as never before. Getting into the CPTPP is not just beneficial in the short-term, it is locking the British economy into the most economically dynamic region in the world. It constitutes a very serious investment in the future.
Added to the trade statistics, it is important to remember that UK service suppliers are already deeply integrated with the Indo Pacific region. UK service suppliers exported nearly £30 billion worth of services to CPTPP members in 2019.
Also a reminder that we do have a free trade deal with EU which is better than any other country, according to the article.
Not bad for a bunch of alleged f***wits
I wish I could get as glowing a report for improving my performance by 0.1% over the next decade.
0.08%
Alternatively can I borrow your time machine and travel to the future?
Also worth noting that it covers services which is a plus point given the size of the UK services sector.
I suspect you know this already though, being a bright “numbers man”.
So it’s easy to see why folk here do not share your enthusiasm. You can’t simply dismiss leaving the eu as a historical aberration; one of the reasons given for leaving was to be able to do big trade deals elsewhere, so the impact of leaving has to be factored into any assessment of the impact of a new deal.
Forget the EU for a minute, we have done what we have done and it isn't likely to change in the short or medium term. Based on what you know and looking just at the CPTPP, do you think we should go ahead and sign up it? "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
I was waiting for an answer to my question first.pangolin said:Given we have a finite about of time and money we can allocate to signing trade deals Stevo, do you think this was the best option?
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Perhaps you can return the favour and acknowledge the caveat I included, namely that the new deal is no more than a rounding error in terms of its upside relative to the downside of Brexit (in GDP terms).Stevo_666 said:
He agreed with me on the point I was making.Pross said:
Love the way you ignore the rest of the response.Stevo_666 said:
Thank you - we agree then. That's really the case I was making, but as expected too many seemed to take this as an assault on the apparently faultless EU arrangements that used to be in place.wallace_and_gromit said:
Definitely join it.Stevo_666 said:
But you are still connecting the two deals when it is not an either/or decision.wallace_and_gromit said:
I appreciate that and tbh, I’m more to your “non-pessimistic” view on the whole thing than many here. But even if the adverse impact of Brexit is over stated 2x and the benefit of the new deal understated 10x then the net impact is -2% plus 1% ie still a net negative.Stevo_666 said:
I am simply trying to bring a bit of perspective to it in terms of potential scale, if that helps to clarify the point.wallace_and_gromit said:
The quoted 0.08% of gdp benefit is the incremental impact not the overall value of trade with the countries concerned post-deal.Stevo_666 said:
Given that exports to CPTPP countries already exceed £60bn a year its hard to see how that estimate is anything other than conservative. Either that or the estimates of the impact from Brexit of 4% are likely overblown. And the estimate will be before you've taken into account likely new entrants to the CPTPP.monkimark said:Over 10 years according the the government's own figures
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65124741
‐----------------
And even with some gains in trading the government only estimates it will add 0.08% to the size of the economy in 10 years.
-----------------Stevo_666 said:
On what basis and over what period?briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:
I wish I could predict the future like you Brian. I've already set out the likely long term benefits, but you appear to be stuck in the old 'the only good trade deal is with the EU' mindset. Time to broaden your horizons I think.briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:More opinions
from the press which paint a positive picture...
The announcement that the UK is to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership is a huge achievement. It should not be underestimated. This will open up free trade between the UK and 11 economies in the Indo Pacific region. It means free trade not just with Australia and New Zealand but with countries like Japan, Canada and Mexico, as well as Singapore and Vietnam. It will in time prove transformational for the British economy.
These countries have a population of 500 million and a GDP of $9 trillion. Japan is the third largest economy in the world. Of the others, many are fast growing and progressive economies, and then there are the more traditional, stable, developed economies of Australia, Canada and Singapore.
The UK will be in a unique position. It already has a free trade agreement with the EU which may not be quite as liberal as being a member of the single market, but nevertheless gives the UK tariff and quota free access to the EU market, as well as being able to import from the EU duty-free. No country has freer trade with the EU than the UK. Add to that free trade with 500 million people in the Indo-Pacific and the UK has amongst the best trading arrangements of any country on earth.
At the moment, the UK’s trade with the CPTPP countries constitutes just 7.8 per cent of its total trade. Critics may think that is unimportant, but remember: these countries are some of the most economically dynamic on earth. It is estimated that by 2030, 65 per cent of the world’s middle-class consumers will be in the Indo Pacific region. So for the naysayers who think the CPTPP may not be important to the British economy, let me remind them that the growth on trade with those 11 economies is already running at around 8 per cent a year.
Once trade barriers are torn down, expect that trade to grow a great deal faster. And while we have no idea how well British exporters will fare in those Indo Pacific markets, the opportunities have now opened up as never before. Getting into the CPTPP is not just beneficial in the short-term, it is locking the British economy into the most economically dynamic region in the world. It constitutes a very serious investment in the future.
Added to the trade statistics, it is important to remember that UK service suppliers are already deeply integrated with the Indo Pacific region. UK service suppliers exported nearly £30 billion worth of services to CPTPP members in 2019.
Also a reminder that we do have a free trade deal with EU which is better than any other country, according to the article.
Not bad for a bunch of alleged f***wits
I wish I could get as glowing a report for improving my performance by 0.1% over the next decade.
0.08%
Alternatively can I borrow your time machine and travel to the future?
Also worth noting that it covers services which is a plus point given the size of the UK services sector.
I suspect you know this already though, being a bright “numbers man”.
So it’s easy to see why folk here do not share your enthusiasm. You can’t simply dismiss leaving the eu as a historical aberration; one of the reasons given for leaving was to be able to do big trade deals elsewhere, so the impact of leaving has to be factored into any assessment of the impact of a new deal.
Forget the EU for a minute, we have done what we have done and it isn't likely to change in the short or medium term. Based on what you know and looking just at the CPTPP, do you think we should go ahead and sign up it?
0 -
I'm not so sure about whether that is the case that it is 'just a rounding error, given the recent statement by Kemi Badenoch rubbishing her own departments forecasts on this - as I pointed out upthread, it looked way too conservative ('scuse the pun). I know a few people latched onto that conservative forecast with ill disguised glee, but she is head of the department so knows better than some randoms on a bike forum:wallace_and_gromit said:
Perhaps you can return the favour and acknowledge the caveat I included, namely that the new deal is no more than a rounding error in terms of its upside relative to the downside of Brexit (in GDP terms).Stevo_666 said:
He agreed with me on the point I was making.Pross said:
Love the way you ignore the rest of the response.Stevo_666 said:
Thank you - we agree then. That's really the case I was making, but as expected too many seemed to take this as an assault on the apparently faultless EU arrangements that used to be in place.wallace_and_gromit said:
Definitely join it.Stevo_666 said:
But you are still connecting the two deals when it is not an either/or decision.wallace_and_gromit said:
I appreciate that and tbh, I’m more to your “non-pessimistic” view on the whole thing than many here. But even if the adverse impact of Brexit is over stated 2x and the benefit of the new deal understated 10x then the net impact is -2% plus 1% ie still a net negative.Stevo_666 said:
I am simply trying to bring a bit of perspective to it in terms of potential scale, if that helps to clarify the point.wallace_and_gromit said:
The quoted 0.08% of gdp benefit is the incremental impact not the overall value of trade with the countries concerned post-deal.Stevo_666 said:
Given that exports to CPTPP countries already exceed £60bn a year its hard to see how that estimate is anything other than conservative. Either that or the estimates of the impact from Brexit of 4% are likely overblown. And the estimate will be before you've taken into account likely new entrants to the CPTPP.monkimark said:Over 10 years according the the government's own figures
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65124741
‐----------------
And even with some gains in trading the government only estimates it will add 0.08% to the size of the economy in 10 years.
-----------------Stevo_666 said:
On what basis and over what period?briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:
I wish I could predict the future like you Brian. I've already set out the likely long term benefits, but you appear to be stuck in the old 'the only good trade deal is with the EU' mindset. Time to broaden your horizons I think.briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:More opinions
from the press which paint a positive picture...
The announcement that the UK is to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership is a huge achievement. It should not be underestimated. This will open up free trade between the UK and 11 economies in the Indo Pacific region. It means free trade not just with Australia and New Zealand but with countries like Japan, Canada and Mexico, as well as Singapore and Vietnam. It will in time prove transformational for the British economy.
These countries have a population of 500 million and a GDP of $9 trillion. Japan is the third largest economy in the world. Of the others, many are fast growing and progressive economies, and then there are the more traditional, stable, developed economies of Australia, Canada and Singapore.
The UK will be in a unique position. It already has a free trade agreement with the EU which may not be quite as liberal as being a member of the single market, but nevertheless gives the UK tariff and quota free access to the EU market, as well as being able to import from the EU duty-free. No country has freer trade with the EU than the UK. Add to that free trade with 500 million people in the Indo-Pacific and the UK has amongst the best trading arrangements of any country on earth.
At the moment, the UK’s trade with the CPTPP countries constitutes just 7.8 per cent of its total trade. Critics may think that is unimportant, but remember: these countries are some of the most economically dynamic on earth. It is estimated that by 2030, 65 per cent of the world’s middle-class consumers will be in the Indo Pacific region. So for the naysayers who think the CPTPP may not be important to the British economy, let me remind them that the growth on trade with those 11 economies is already running at around 8 per cent a year.
Once trade barriers are torn down, expect that trade to grow a great deal faster. And while we have no idea how well British exporters will fare in those Indo Pacific markets, the opportunities have now opened up as never before. Getting into the CPTPP is not just beneficial in the short-term, it is locking the British economy into the most economically dynamic region in the world. It constitutes a very serious investment in the future.
Added to the trade statistics, it is important to remember that UK service suppliers are already deeply integrated with the Indo Pacific region. UK service suppliers exported nearly £30 billion worth of services to CPTPP members in 2019.
Also a reminder that we do have a free trade deal with EU which is better than any other country, according to the article.
Not bad for a bunch of alleged f***wits
I wish I could get as glowing a report for improving my performance by 0.1% over the next decade.
0.08%
Alternatively can I borrow your time machine and travel to the future?
Also worth noting that it covers services which is a plus point given the size of the UK services sector.
I suspect you know this already though, being a bright “numbers man”.
So it’s easy to see why folk here do not share your enthusiasm. You can’t simply dismiss leaving the eu as a historical aberration; one of the reasons given for leaving was to be able to do big trade deals elsewhere, so the impact of leaving has to be factored into any assessment of the impact of a new deal.
Forget the EU for a minute, we have done what we have done and it isn't likely to change in the short or medium term. Based on what you know and looking just at the CPTPP, do you think we should go ahead and sign up it?
https://telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/04/02/indo-pacific-trade-deal-cptpp-brexit-britain/
Quote:
Badenoch rails against a Whitehall forecast, published several years ago, estimating that CPTPP membership will boost UK GDP by a paltry 0.08pc. “I can’t stand this estimate, even though it came from my department,” she says. “It’s a stale, static, out-of-date assessment that assumes growth is linear and businesses won’t use CPTPP to really expand”.
Warming to her theme, Badenoch perhaps unknowingly paraphrases Wayne Gretzky. “Demand from the CPTPP countries is expected to far outstrip growth from Europe,” she argues. “So this deal will bring the UK significant economic growth if we use it properly – this is all about where the world is heading”.
What’s clear is that downbeat Whitehall forecasts don’t consider that other countries could soon join the CPTPP – with major economies including Taiwan and South Korea expressing serious interest. And the US could also end up rejoining in the years to come – which, according to Falconer, “could well mean we don’t then need to seek our own bilateral deal with the US”.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
You trust Badenoch more than her advisors?Stevo_666 said:
I'm not so sure about whether that is the case that it is 'just a rounding error, given the recent statement by Kemi Badenoch rubbishing her own departments forecasts on this - as I pointed out upthread, it looked way too conservative ('scuse the pun). I know a few people latched onto that conservative forecast with ill disguised glee, but she is head of the department so knows better than some randoms on a bike forum:wallace_and_gromit said:
Perhaps you can return the favour and acknowledge the caveat I included, namely that the new deal is no more than a rounding error in terms of its upside relative to the downside of Brexit (in GDP terms).Stevo_666 said:
He agreed with me on the point I was making.Pross said:
Love the way you ignore the rest of the response.Stevo_666 said:
Thank you - we agree then. That's really the case I was making, but as expected too many seemed to take this as an assault on the apparently faultless EU arrangements that used to be in place.wallace_and_gromit said:
Definitely join it.Stevo_666 said:
But you are still connecting the two deals when it is not an either/or decision.wallace_and_gromit said:
I appreciate that and tbh, I’m more to your “non-pessimistic” view on the whole thing than many here. But even if the adverse impact of Brexit is over stated 2x and the benefit of the new deal understated 10x then the net impact is -2% plus 1% ie still a net negative.Stevo_666 said:
I am simply trying to bring a bit of perspective to it in terms of potential scale, if that helps to clarify the point.wallace_and_gromit said:
The quoted 0.08% of gdp benefit is the incremental impact not the overall value of trade with the countries concerned post-deal.Stevo_666 said:
Given that exports to CPTPP countries already exceed £60bn a year its hard to see how that estimate is anything other than conservative. Either that or the estimates of the impact from Brexit of 4% are likely overblown. And the estimate will be before you've taken into account likely new entrants to the CPTPP.monkimark said:Over 10 years according the the government's own figures
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65124741
‐----------------
And even with some gains in trading the government only estimates it will add 0.08% to the size of the economy in 10 years.
-----------------Stevo_666 said:
On what basis and over what period?briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:
I wish I could predict the future like you Brian. I've already set out the likely long term benefits, but you appear to be stuck in the old 'the only good trade deal is with the EU' mindset. Time to broaden your horizons I think.briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:More opinions
from the press which paint a positive picture...
The announcement that the UK is to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership is a huge achievement. It should not be underestimated. This will open up free trade between the UK and 11 economies in the Indo Pacific region. It means free trade not just with Australia and New Zealand but with countries like Japan, Canada and Mexico, as well as Singapore and Vietnam. It will in time prove transformational for the British economy.
These countries have a population of 500 million and a GDP of $9 trillion. Japan is the third largest economy in the world. Of the others, many are fast growing and progressive economies, and then there are the more traditional, stable, developed economies of Australia, Canada and Singapore.
The UK will be in a unique position. It already has a free trade agreement with the EU which may not be quite as liberal as being a member of the single market, but nevertheless gives the UK tariff and quota free access to the EU market, as well as being able to import from the EU duty-free. No country has freer trade with the EU than the UK. Add to that free trade with 500 million people in the Indo-Pacific and the UK has amongst the best trading arrangements of any country on earth.
At the moment, the UK’s trade with the CPTPP countries constitutes just 7.8 per cent of its total trade. Critics may think that is unimportant, but remember: these countries are some of the most economically dynamic on earth. It is estimated that by 2030, 65 per cent of the world’s middle-class consumers will be in the Indo Pacific region. So for the naysayers who think the CPTPP may not be important to the British economy, let me remind them that the growth on trade with those 11 economies is already running at around 8 per cent a year.
Once trade barriers are torn down, expect that trade to grow a great deal faster. And while we have no idea how well British exporters will fare in those Indo Pacific markets, the opportunities have now opened up as never before. Getting into the CPTPP is not just beneficial in the short-term, it is locking the British economy into the most economically dynamic region in the world. It constitutes a very serious investment in the future.
Added to the trade statistics, it is important to remember that UK service suppliers are already deeply integrated with the Indo Pacific region. UK service suppliers exported nearly £30 billion worth of services to CPTPP members in 2019.
Also a reminder that we do have a free trade deal with EU which is better than any other country, according to the article.
Not bad for a bunch of alleged f***wits
I wish I could get as glowing a report for improving my performance by 0.1% over the next decade.
0.08%
Alternatively can I borrow your time machine and travel to the future?
Also worth noting that it covers services which is a plus point given the size of the UK services sector.
I suspect you know this already though, being a bright “numbers man”.
So it’s easy to see why folk here do not share your enthusiasm. You can’t simply dismiss leaving the eu as a historical aberration; one of the reasons given for leaving was to be able to do big trade deals elsewhere, so the impact of leaving has to be factored into any assessment of the impact of a new deal.
Forget the EU for a minute, we have done what we have done and it isn't likely to change in the short or medium term. Based on what you know and looking just at the CPTPP, do you think we should go ahead and sign up it?
https://telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/04/02/indo-pacific-trade-deal-cptpp-brexit-britain/
Quote:
Badenoch rails against a Whitehall forecast, published several years ago, estimating that CPTPP membership will boost UK GDP by a paltry 0.08pc. “I can’t stand this estimate, even though it came from my department,” she says. “It’s a stale, static, out-of-date assessment that assumes growth is linear and businesses won’t use CPTPP to really expand”.
Warming to her theme, Badenoch perhaps unknowingly paraphrases Wayne Gretzky. “Demand from the CPTPP countries is expected to far outstrip growth from Europe,” she argues. “So this deal will bring the UK significant economic growth if we use it properly – this is all about where the world is heading”.
What’s clear is that downbeat Whitehall forecasts don’t consider that other countries could soon join the CPTPP – with major economies including Taiwan and South Korea expressing serious interest. And the US could also end up rejoining in the years to come – which, according to Falconer, “could well mean we don’t then need to seek our own bilateral deal with the US”.0 -
Sorry, if you want to make the case that the government's own estimate is too pessimistic, you'll need to do better than Badenoch's completely unevidenced claims. Just wishing it were so isn't going to cut it.Stevo_666 said:
I'm not so sure about whether that is the case that it is 'just a rounding error, given the recent statement by Kemi Badenoch rubbishing her own departments forecasts on this - as I pointed out upthread, it looked way too conservative ('scuse the pun). I know a few people latched onto that conservative forecast with ill disguised glee, but she is head of the department so knows better than some randoms on a bike forum:wallace_and_gromit said:
Perhaps you can return the favour and acknowledge the caveat I included, namely that the new deal is no more than a rounding error in terms of its upside relative to the downside of Brexit (in GDP terms).Stevo_666 said:
He agreed with me on the point I was making.Pross said:
Love the way you ignore the rest of the response.Stevo_666 said:
Thank you - we agree then. That's really the case I was making, but as expected too many seemed to take this as an assault on the apparently faultless EU arrangements that used to be in place.wallace_and_gromit said:
Definitely join it.Stevo_666 said:
But you are still connecting the two deals when it is not an either/or decision.wallace_and_gromit said:
I appreciate that and tbh, I’m more to your “non-pessimistic” view on the whole thing than many here. But even if the adverse impact of Brexit is over stated 2x and the benefit of the new deal understated 10x then the net impact is -2% plus 1% ie still a net negative.Stevo_666 said:
I am simply trying to bring a bit of perspective to it in terms of potential scale, if that helps to clarify the point.wallace_and_gromit said:
The quoted 0.08% of gdp benefit is the incremental impact not the overall value of trade with the countries concerned post-deal.Stevo_666 said:
Given that exports to CPTPP countries already exceed £60bn a year its hard to see how that estimate is anything other than conservative. Either that or the estimates of the impact from Brexit of 4% are likely overblown. And the estimate will be before you've taken into account likely new entrants to the CPTPP.monkimark said:Over 10 years according the the government's own figures
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65124741
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And even with some gains in trading the government only estimates it will add 0.08% to the size of the economy in 10 years.
-----------------Stevo_666 said:
On what basis and over what period?briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:
I wish I could predict the future like you Brian. I've already set out the likely long term benefits, but you appear to be stuck in the old 'the only good trade deal is with the EU' mindset. Time to broaden your horizons I think.briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:More opinions
from the press which paint a positive picture...
The announcement that the UK is to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership is a huge achievement. It should not be underestimated. This will open up free trade between the UK and 11 economies in the Indo Pacific region. It means free trade not just with Australia and New Zealand but with countries like Japan, Canada and Mexico, as well as Singapore and Vietnam. It will in time prove transformational for the British economy.
These countries have a population of 500 million and a GDP of $9 trillion. Japan is the third largest economy in the world. Of the others, many are fast growing and progressive economies, and then there are the more traditional, stable, developed economies of Australia, Canada and Singapore.
The UK will be in a unique position. It already has a free trade agreement with the EU which may not be quite as liberal as being a member of the single market, but nevertheless gives the UK tariff and quota free access to the EU market, as well as being able to import from the EU duty-free. No country has freer trade with the EU than the UK. Add to that free trade with 500 million people in the Indo-Pacific and the UK has amongst the best trading arrangements of any country on earth.
At the moment, the UK’s trade with the CPTPP countries constitutes just 7.8 per cent of its total trade. Critics may think that is unimportant, but remember: these countries are some of the most economically dynamic on earth. It is estimated that by 2030, 65 per cent of the world’s middle-class consumers will be in the Indo Pacific region. So for the naysayers who think the CPTPP may not be important to the British economy, let me remind them that the growth on trade with those 11 economies is already running at around 8 per cent a year.
Once trade barriers are torn down, expect that trade to grow a great deal faster. And while we have no idea how well British exporters will fare in those Indo Pacific markets, the opportunities have now opened up as never before. Getting into the CPTPP is not just beneficial in the short-term, it is locking the British economy into the most economically dynamic region in the world. It constitutes a very serious investment in the future.
Added to the trade statistics, it is important to remember that UK service suppliers are already deeply integrated with the Indo Pacific region. UK service suppliers exported nearly £30 billion worth of services to CPTPP members in 2019.
Also a reminder that we do have a free trade deal with EU which is better than any other country, according to the article.
Not bad for a bunch of alleged f***wits
I wish I could get as glowing a report for improving my performance by 0.1% over the next decade.
0.08%
Alternatively can I borrow your time machine and travel to the future?
Also worth noting that it covers services which is a plus point given the size of the UK services sector.
I suspect you know this already though, being a bright “numbers man”.
So it’s easy to see why folk here do not share your enthusiasm. You can’t simply dismiss leaving the eu as a historical aberration; one of the reasons given for leaving was to be able to do big trade deals elsewhere, so the impact of leaving has to be factored into any assessment of the impact of a new deal.
Forget the EU for a minute, we have done what we have done and it isn't likely to change in the short or medium term. Based on what you know and looking just at the CPTPP, do you think we should go ahead and sign up it?
https://telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/04/02/indo-pacific-trade-deal-cptpp-brexit-britain/
Quote:
Badenoch rails against a Whitehall forecast, published several years ago, estimating that CPTPP membership will boost UK GDP by a paltry 0.08pc. “I can’t stand this estimate, even though it came from my department,” she says. “It’s a stale, static, out-of-date assessment that assumes growth is linear and businesses won’t use CPTPP to really expand”.
Warming to her theme, Badenoch perhaps unknowingly paraphrases Wayne Gretzky. “Demand from the CPTPP countries is expected to far outstrip growth from Europe,” she argues. “So this deal will bring the UK significant economic growth if we use it properly – this is all about where the world is heading”.
What’s clear is that downbeat Whitehall forecasts don’t consider that other countries could soon join the CPTPP – with major economies including Taiwan and South Korea expressing serious interest. And the US could also end up rejoining in the years to come – which, according to Falconer, “could well mean we don’t then need to seek our own bilateral deal with the US”.
Classic approach for this government, though: ask your department to find the answer to a question and when reality doesn't fit your fantasies, publicly sh*t on your department.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
I think they're just teeing up some transparent claims in a few years time that "Labour haven't made the most of the opportunities we handed them"- Genesis Croix de Fer
- Dolan Tuono0 -
Stevo - There are two sides to any argument. If Badenoch is on one side, then the other side is - given the track record of the current government’s predictions about the Brexit process - the best place from which to start to maximise your chances of retaining intellectual credibility. Tory statements are designed to appeal to the nuttier fringe of the party who have no ability to think. It’s commendable loyalty to support such intellect-free types because they are also members of “your” party, but there’s nothing to be gained from it for you.1
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On the Dover queues.
Do people not remember that having to stamp all your passports and having a "hard border" slows everything down?
This was always going to be the scenario. Everyone who had done more than 3 minutes of reading could see that, as did the government, hence all the additional parking spaces for lorries all over Kent.0 -
Project Fear0
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Some hope!wallace_and_gromit said:
Perhaps you can return the favour and acknowledge the caveat I included, namely that the new deal is no more than a rounding error in terms of its upside relative to the downside of Brexit (in GDP terms).Stevo_666 said:
He agreed with me on the point I was making.Pross said:
Love the way you ignore the rest of the response.Stevo_666 said:
Thank you - we agree then. That's really the case I was making, but as expected too many seemed to take this as an assault on the apparently faultless EU arrangements that used to be in place.wallace_and_gromit said:
Definitely join it.Stevo_666 said:
But you are still connecting the two deals when it is not an either/or decision.wallace_and_gromit said:
I appreciate that and tbh, I’m more to your “non-pessimistic” view on the whole thing than many here. But even if the adverse impact of Brexit is over stated 2x and the benefit of the new deal understated 10x then the net impact is -2% plus 1% ie still a net negative.Stevo_666 said:
I am simply trying to bring a bit of perspective to it in terms of potential scale, if that helps to clarify the point.wallace_and_gromit said:
The quoted 0.08% of gdp benefit is the incremental impact not the overall value of trade with the countries concerned post-deal.Stevo_666 said:
Given that exports to CPTPP countries already exceed £60bn a year its hard to see how that estimate is anything other than conservative. Either that or the estimates of the impact from Brexit of 4% are likely overblown. And the estimate will be before you've taken into account likely new entrants to the CPTPP.monkimark said:Over 10 years according the the government's own figures
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65124741
‐----------------
And even with some gains in trading the government only estimates it will add 0.08% to the size of the economy in 10 years.
-----------------Stevo_666 said:
On what basis and over what period?briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:
I wish I could predict the future like you Brian. I've already set out the likely long term benefits, but you appear to be stuck in the old 'the only good trade deal is with the EU' mindset. Time to broaden your horizons I think.briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:More opinions
from the press which paint a positive picture...
The announcement that the UK is to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership is a huge achievement. It should not be underestimated. This will open up free trade between the UK and 11 economies in the Indo Pacific region. It means free trade not just with Australia and New Zealand but with countries like Japan, Canada and Mexico, as well as Singapore and Vietnam. It will in time prove transformational for the British economy.
These countries have a population of 500 million and a GDP of $9 trillion. Japan is the third largest economy in the world. Of the others, many are fast growing and progressive economies, and then there are the more traditional, stable, developed economies of Australia, Canada and Singapore.
The UK will be in a unique position. It already has a free trade agreement with the EU which may not be quite as liberal as being a member of the single market, but nevertheless gives the UK tariff and quota free access to the EU market, as well as being able to import from the EU duty-free. No country has freer trade with the EU than the UK. Add to that free trade with 500 million people in the Indo-Pacific and the UK has amongst the best trading arrangements of any country on earth.
At the moment, the UK’s trade with the CPTPP countries constitutes just 7.8 per cent of its total trade. Critics may think that is unimportant, but remember: these countries are some of the most economically dynamic on earth. It is estimated that by 2030, 65 per cent of the world’s middle-class consumers will be in the Indo Pacific region. So for the naysayers who think the CPTPP may not be important to the British economy, let me remind them that the growth on trade with those 11 economies is already running at around 8 per cent a year.
Once trade barriers are torn down, expect that trade to grow a great deal faster. And while we have no idea how well British exporters will fare in those Indo Pacific markets, the opportunities have now opened up as never before. Getting into the CPTPP is not just beneficial in the short-term, it is locking the British economy into the most economically dynamic region in the world. It constitutes a very serious investment in the future.
Added to the trade statistics, it is important to remember that UK service suppliers are already deeply integrated with the Indo Pacific region. UK service suppliers exported nearly £30 billion worth of services to CPTPP members in 2019.
Also a reminder that we do have a free trade deal with EU which is better than any other country, according to the article.
Not bad for a bunch of alleged f***wits
I wish I could get as glowing a report for improving my performance by 0.1% over the next decade.
0.08%
Alternatively can I borrow your time machine and travel to the future?
Also worth noting that it covers services which is a plus point given the size of the UK services sector.
I suspect you know this already though, being a bright “numbers man”.
So it’s easy to see why folk here do not share your enthusiasm. You can’t simply dismiss leaving the eu as a historical aberration; one of the reasons given for leaving was to be able to do big trade deals elsewhere, so the impact of leaving has to be factored into any assessment of the impact of a new deal.
Forget the EU for a minute, we have done what we have done and it isn't likely to change in the short or medium term. Based on what you know and looking just at the CPTPP, do you think we should go ahead and sign up it?0 -
Re Labour's Make Brexit Work stance, not admitting even the most obvious problems did seem to be missing an open goal. Bemusing.
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Is she wrong? We could have left the EU in a way that didn't involve these checks, but the government decided that this was the way to do it. Despite what was said in the campaign. It's a bad decision, badly sold, and badly implemented.0
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My memory must be playing tricks with me as I would have said that by the mid/late '80s you needed to do no more that wave a passport in the general direction of passport control. ie nobody under 40 appreciated the EU as they could not remember life before it.rick_chasey said:On the Dover queues.
Do people not remember that having to stamp all your passports and having a "hard border" slows everything down?
This was always going to be the scenario. Everyone who had done more than 3 minutes of reading could see that, as did the government, hence all the additional parking spaces for lorries all over Kent.
@Stevo_666 how did Brexiteers think the borders were going to remain seamless for Brits?0 -
I am going to say that it is too nuanced an argument and that effectively she is wrong. Our borders were always going to look far more like going to USA.kingstongraham said:Is she wrong? We could have left the EU in a way that didn't involve these checks, but the government decided that this was the way to do it. Despite what was said in the campaign. It's a bad decision, badly sold, and badly implemented.
The honest answer is that this is what people voted for and they should be remnded of that fact. Ther eis no political gain for her in saying that so she blames the Tories for the lack of space and French border guards at Dover0 -
There is no solution that they can propose, the reality is that people will have to adapt their lives so that less travel to France at busy times of the yearbriantrumpet said:Re Labour's Make Brexit Work stance, not admitting even the most obvious problems did seem to be missing an open goal. Bemusing.
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yer, in the awkward position of agreeing with Lisa Nandy here. We could/should've built a whole load of extra passport checking points and paid the french a great deal of money to staff them during known busy periods. If the 30s to 2-minute ratio is right then we need 4 times as many. (Personally, I am envisioning a sort of 4 storey building with an artfully designed set of spaghetti-like ramps up to each booth).
When we thought no-deal was an option (lol) we did spend an awful lot of money building facilities for customs checks. (I wonder if this problem and that solution could be mixed somehow... 🤔)We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
- @ddraver0 -
4x sounds about right. It's about that much longer to get through the border off to holland each way.0
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It keeps being delayed but the EU will eventually scrap the stamping requirement.surrey_commuter said:
There is no solution that they can propose, the reality is that people will have to adapt their lives so that less travel to France at busy times of the yearbriantrumpet said:Re Labour's Make Brexit Work stance, not admitting even the most obvious problems did seem to be missing an open goal. Bemusing.
Someone from Japan can just walk through the egates at Heathrow in the same way a Brit can.0 -
The UK side of Eurotunnel must have room to build a solution but I just don't see how it is possible at Dover.ddraver said:yer, in the awkward position of agreeing with Lisa Nandy here. We could/should've built a whole load of extra passport checking points and paid the french a great deal of money to staff them during known busy periods. If the 30s to 2-minute ratio is right then we need 4 times as many. (Personally, I am envisioning a sort of 4 storey building with an artfully designed set of spaghetti-like ramps up to each booth).
When we thought no-deal was an option (lol) we did spend an awful lot of money building facilities for customs checks. (I wonder if this problem and that solution could be mixed somehow... 🤔)
I was amazed to read a story about a school in Chorley going on a ski trip to Italy by coach. Giving up at Dover and turning back would seem like a blessing in disguise.
The problem will solve itself by the ferries selling less tickets and/or fewer people travelling0 -
At the risk of coming over all Stevo the problem there is just british lack of ambition.surrey_commuter said:
The UK side of Eurotunnel must have room to build a solution but I just don't see how it is possible at Dover.
In france there would have been a beautifully designed architectural masterpiece that housed all the booths on top of each other or below each other.
We can't build a f'kin railway...We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
- @ddraver0 -
surrey_commuter said:
The problem will solve itself by the ferries selling less tickets and/or fewer people travelling
Do you think that would reduce our GDP by 0 08% by 2030?0 -
Why would they do that?surrey_commuter said:
The problem will solve itself by the ferries selling less tickets and/or fewer people travelling0 -
It's alright, the Passport Office is on strike which is the first part of the Government's strategy to ensure fewer people have passports and therefore less can travel. You've got to appreciate outside the box thinking.0
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increased friction will already be baked into the 0.5%pa reduction in annual growthbriantrumpet said:surrey_commuter said:
The problem will solve itself by the ferries selling less tickets and/or fewer people travelling
Do you think that would reduce our GDP by 0 08% by 2030?0 -
WTAF does Wayne Gretzky have to do with a trade deal?
Other question, ferry companies are overwhelmed by demand. Did the coaches not book in advance? 🤔The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
think of it like traffic, the conegection gets so bad that people change their behaviour.rick_chasey said:
Why would they do that?surrey_commuter said:
The problem will solve itself by the ferries selling less tickets and/or fewer people travelling
Do you think that school in Chorley will be planning a ski trip by coach next Easter?
Sorry if I come across as unsympathetic but this is irrelevant compared to the economic damage. It should be calmly explained to people that this is what they voted for.0 -
you have obviously never been to Gare du Nord international departuresddraver said:
At the risk of coming over all Stevo the problem there is just british lack of ambition.surrey_commuter said:
The UK side of Eurotunnel must have room to build a solution but I just don't see how it is possible at Dover.
In france there would have been a beautifully designed architectural masterpiece that housed all the booths on top of each other or below each other.
We can't build a f'kin railway...0 -
That's stupid. If I was the boat company I'd tell everyone to turn up 4 hours early once i'd taken the customer's money.
Do a cost-benefit analysis if it's preferable to make it non-refundable or transferable if you miss due to border queues and blame the gov't/0
