BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴
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I'm sure the uni easter skiing trips could just have gone to snow domes.0
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This is the thing, we don't know because Labour policy on a lot of stuff is deliberately vague as they don't want to scare people and Starmer seems to change his position a fair bit.Jezyboy said:
What do you think starmer will do, crash market confidence and last a handful of days? Run down public services until there's an endless drip of strikes across health, education and transport?Stevo_666 said:
Careful what you wish for is all I can say. If Starmer does take over then we'll have bigger issues than Brexit (actually we already do but this will add to the pile).wallace_and_gromit said:
You asked why people keep going back to the decision to leave the EU. My explanation was that leaving the EU in the way we did was a f*ckwit decision, made by the same f*ckwits that are still in charge, and that reminding people of this fact will hopefully help their decision-making in the future.Stevo_666 said:
My question was to W&G. But in any event don't confuse facts with opinion.pangolin said:
You seemed to be alluding to the Government making a clever move and W&G is reminding you that they are demonstrably f*ckwits. Seems to address the point.Stevo_666 said:
Not sure how that addresses my point?wallace_and_gromit said:
I know this is a rhetorical question but the answer is that the party that thought it such a good idea to negotiate with the EU via insults, rhetoric and a total absence of rigorous analysis are still in charge. (e.g. Raab, who was unaware of the geographical significance of Dover-Calais in UK-EU trade is still a senior minister and f*ckits like Cash, Anderson, Brigden and Francois are influential MPs).Stevo_666 said:I am looking at the opportunities a major new trade deal but all I seem to be getting back is 'but the EU was better'. So what if it was?
Their incompetence / lack of judgement needs maximum publicity rather than being conveniently forgotten so that if anyone feels compelled to vote for them next time they are aware that they are voting for a bunch of morons, notwithstanding Sunak's recent conversion to professionalism now that it suits him.
When Starmer takes over, there will be much less reference to the decision to leave the EU, as he was a remainer.
Tbh when I posted news of a major needs trade deal I had hoped for a bit more than the usual 'but its not the EU' (irrelevant as where we are now its not a one or the other choice); and 'but it's the nasty Torwies' (which seems to be more about people taking out their frustrations in life on the ruling party rather than being relevant to the point).
Hey ho.
Whilst there are undoubtedly bigger issues than Brexit, it does seem that the implications of Brexit are largely have either a small negative, or no impact on these other issues. It just feels like a complete waste of energy.
Clearly letting the unions have more freedom to hold us to random is a perennial concern with Labour. As is the likely re-emergence of the hard from under their rocks if Labour do get in. Beyond that, the exact course is hard to predict but it's likely that they will screw things up.
Glad somebody agrees that Brexit is not a big thing."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Emotional terms? Irrelevant. In any event, it was a relationship that one party wasn't comfortable with.wallace_and_gromit said:
No-one’s excited about a major trade deal for two reasons:Stevo_666 said:
Careful what you wish for is all I can say. If Starmer does take over then we'll have bigger issues than Brexit (actually we already do but this will add to the pile).wallace_and_gromit said:
You asked why people keep going back to the decision to leave the EU. My explanation was that leaving the EU in the way we did was a f*ckwit decision, made by the same f*ckwits that are still in charge, and that reminding people of this fact will hopefully help their decision-making in the future.Stevo_666 said:
My question was to W&G. But in any event don't confuse facts with opinion.pangolin said:
You seemed to be alluding to the Government making a clever move and W&G is reminding you that they are demonstrably f*ckwits. Seems to address the point.Stevo_666 said:
Not sure how that addresses my point?wallace_and_gromit said:
I know this is a rhetorical question but the answer is that the party that thought it such a good idea to negotiate with the EU via insults, rhetoric and a total absence of rigorous analysis are still in charge. (e.g. Raab, who was unaware of the geographical significance of Dover-Calais in UK-EU trade is still a senior minister and f*ckits like Cash, Anderson, Brigden and Francois are influential MPs).Stevo_666 said:I am looking at the opportunities a major new trade deal but all I seem to be getting back is 'but the EU was better'. So what if it was?
Their incompetence / lack of judgement needs maximum publicity rather than being conveniently forgotten so that if anyone feels compelled to vote for them next time they are aware that they are voting for a bunch of morons, notwithstanding Sunak's recent conversion to professionalism now that it suits him.
When Starmer takes over, there will be much less reference to the decision to leave the EU, as he was a remainer.
Tbh when I posted news of a major needs trade deal I had hoped for a bit more than the usual 'but its not the EU' (irrelevant as where we are now its not a one or the other choice); and 'but it's the nasty Torwies' (which seems to be more about people taking out their frustrations in life on the ruling party rather than being relevant to the point).
Hey ho.
1) In practical terms, this is not a major deal. It is a deal with a group of countries with a lot of GDP that has minimal incremental impact for the U.K.
2) In emotional terms, it’s equivalent to being dumped by a long term partner and then being expected to be excited when told you can bring a “+1” to your ex’s wedding. Being able to bring a “+1” to a wedding isn’t bad news in itself, but rather misses the big issue.
Exports to the EU are already less than no EU exports and we know where the potential lies, so best concentrate on that rather than looking backwards.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Given that exports to CPTPP countries already exceed £60bn a year its hard to see how that estimate is anything other than conservative. Either that or the estimates of the impact from Brexit of 4% are likely overblown. And the estimate will be before you've taken into account likely new entrants to the CPTPP.monkimark said:Over 10 years according the the government's own figures
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65124741
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And even with some gains in trading the government only estimates it will add 0.08% to the size of the economy in 10 years.
-----------------Stevo_666 said:
On what basis and over what period?briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:
I wish I could predict the future like you Brian. I've already set out the likely long term benefits, but you appear to be stuck in the old 'the only good trade deal is with the EU' mindset. Time to broaden your horizons I think.briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:More opinions
from the press which paint a positive picture...
The announcement that the UK is to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership is a huge achievement. It should not be underestimated. This will open up free trade between the UK and 11 economies in the Indo Pacific region. It means free trade not just with Australia and New Zealand but with countries like Japan, Canada and Mexico, as well as Singapore and Vietnam. It will in time prove transformational for the British economy.
These countries have a population of 500 million and a GDP of $9 trillion. Japan is the third largest economy in the world. Of the others, many are fast growing and progressive economies, and then there are the more traditional, stable, developed economies of Australia, Canada and Singapore.
The UK will be in a unique position. It already has a free trade agreement with the EU which may not be quite as liberal as being a member of the single market, but nevertheless gives the UK tariff and quota free access to the EU market, as well as being able to import from the EU duty-free. No country has freer trade with the EU than the UK. Add to that free trade with 500 million people in the Indo-Pacific and the UK has amongst the best trading arrangements of any country on earth.
At the moment, the UK’s trade with the CPTPP countries constitutes just 7.8 per cent of its total trade. Critics may think that is unimportant, but remember: these countries are some of the most economically dynamic on earth. It is estimated that by 2030, 65 per cent of the world’s middle-class consumers will be in the Indo Pacific region. So for the naysayers who think the CPTPP may not be important to the British economy, let me remind them that the growth on trade with those 11 economies is already running at around 8 per cent a year.
Once trade barriers are torn down, expect that trade to grow a great deal faster. And while we have no idea how well British exporters will fare in those Indo Pacific markets, the opportunities have now opened up as never before. Getting into the CPTPP is not just beneficial in the short-term, it is locking the British economy into the most economically dynamic region in the world. It constitutes a very serious investment in the future.
Added to the trade statistics, it is important to remember that UK service suppliers are already deeply integrated with the Indo Pacific region. UK service suppliers exported nearly £30 billion worth of services to CPTPP members in 2019.
Also a reminder that we do have a free trade deal with EU which is better than any other country, according to the article.
Not bad for a bunch of alleged f***wits
I wish I could get as glowing a report for improving my performance by 0.1% over the next decade.
0.08%
Alternatively can I borrow your time machine and travel to the future?
Also worth noting that it covers services which is a plus point given the size of the UK services sector."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Did you miss this bit?Stevo_666 said:
Given that exports to CPTPP countries already exceed £60bn a year its hard to see how that estimate is anything other than conservative. Either that or the estimates of the impact from Brexit of 4% are likely overblown. And the estimate will be before you've taken into account likely new entrants to the CPTPP.monkimark said:Over 10 years according the the government's own figures
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65124741
‐----------------
And even with some gains in trading the government only estimates it will add 0.08% to the size of the economy in 10 years.
-----------------Stevo_666 said:
On what basis and over what period?briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:
I wish I could predict the future like you Brian. I've already set out the likely long term benefits, but you appear to be stuck in the old 'the only good trade deal is with the EU' mindset. Time to broaden your horizons I think.briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:More opinions
from the press which paint a positive picture...
The announcement that the UK is to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership is a huge achievement. It should not be underestimated. This will open up free trade between the UK and 11 economies in the Indo Pacific region. It means free trade not just with Australia and New Zealand but with countries like Japan, Canada and Mexico, as well as Singapore and Vietnam. It will in time prove transformational for the British economy.
These countries have a population of 500 million and a GDP of $9 trillion. Japan is the third largest economy in the world. Of the others, many are fast growing and progressive economies, and then there are the more traditional, stable, developed economies of Australia, Canada and Singapore.
The UK will be in a unique position. It already has a free trade agreement with the EU which may not be quite as liberal as being a member of the single market, but nevertheless gives the UK tariff and quota free access to the EU market, as well as being able to import from the EU duty-free. No country has freer trade with the EU than the UK. Add to that free trade with 500 million people in the Indo-Pacific and the UK has amongst the best trading arrangements of any country on earth.
At the moment, the UK’s trade with the CPTPP countries constitutes just 7.8 per cent of its total trade. Critics may think that is unimportant, but remember: these countries are some of the most economically dynamic on earth. It is estimated that by 2030, 65 per cent of the world’s middle-class consumers will be in the Indo Pacific region. So for the naysayers who think the CPTPP may not be important to the British economy, let me remind them that the growth on trade with those 11 economies is already running at around 8 per cent a year.
Once trade barriers are torn down, expect that trade to grow a great deal faster. And while we have no idea how well British exporters will fare in those Indo Pacific markets, the opportunities have now opened up as never before. Getting into the CPTPP is not just beneficial in the short-term, it is locking the British economy into the most economically dynamic region in the world. It constitutes a very serious investment in the future.
Added to the trade statistics, it is important to remember that UK service suppliers are already deeply integrated with the Indo Pacific region. UK service suppliers exported nearly £30 billion worth of services to CPTPP members in 2019.
Also a reminder that we do have a free trade deal with EU which is better than any other country, according to the article.
Not bad for a bunch of alleged f***wits
I wish I could get as glowing a report for improving my performance by 0.1% over the next decade.
0.08%
Alternatively can I borrow your time machine and travel to the future?
Also worth noting that it covers services which is a plus point given the size of the UK services sector.
"The UK already has free trade deals with all of the members except Brunei and Malaysia, some of which were rolled over from its previous membership of the EU."- Genesis Croix de Fer
- Dolan Tuono0 -
Did you miss the part about services? Or the future new entrants?pangolin said:
Did you miss this bit?Stevo_666 said:
Given that exports to CPTPP countries already exceed £60bn a year its hard to see how that estimate is anything other than conservative. Either that or the estimates of the impact from Brexit of 4% are likely overblown. And the estimate will be before you've taken into account likely new entrants to the CPTPP.monkimark said:Over 10 years according the the government's own figures
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65124741
‐----------------
And even with some gains in trading the government only estimates it will add 0.08% to the size of the economy in 10 years.
-----------------Stevo_666 said:
On what basis and over what period?briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:
I wish I could predict the future like you Brian. I've already set out the likely long term benefits, but you appear to be stuck in the old 'the only good trade deal is with the EU' mindset. Time to broaden your horizons I think.briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:More opinions
from the press which paint a positive picture...
The announcement that the UK is to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership is a huge achievement. It should not be underestimated. This will open up free trade between the UK and 11 economies in the Indo Pacific region. It means free trade not just with Australia and New Zealand but with countries like Japan, Canada and Mexico, as well as Singapore and Vietnam. It will in time prove transformational for the British economy.
These countries have a population of 500 million and a GDP of $9 trillion. Japan is the third largest economy in the world. Of the others, many are fast growing and progressive economies, and then there are the more traditional, stable, developed economies of Australia, Canada and Singapore.
The UK will be in a unique position. It already has a free trade agreement with the EU which may not be quite as liberal as being a member of the single market, but nevertheless gives the UK tariff and quota free access to the EU market, as well as being able to import from the EU duty-free. No country has freer trade with the EU than the UK. Add to that free trade with 500 million people in the Indo-Pacific and the UK has amongst the best trading arrangements of any country on earth.
At the moment, the UK’s trade with the CPTPP countries constitutes just 7.8 per cent of its total trade. Critics may think that is unimportant, but remember: these countries are some of the most economically dynamic on earth. It is estimated that by 2030, 65 per cent of the world’s middle-class consumers will be in the Indo Pacific region. So for the naysayers who think the CPTPP may not be important to the British economy, let me remind them that the growth on trade with those 11 economies is already running at around 8 per cent a year.
Once trade barriers are torn down, expect that trade to grow a great deal faster. And while we have no idea how well British exporters will fare in those Indo Pacific markets, the opportunities have now opened up as never before. Getting into the CPTPP is not just beneficial in the short-term, it is locking the British economy into the most economically dynamic region in the world. It constitutes a very serious investment in the future.
Added to the trade statistics, it is important to remember that UK service suppliers are already deeply integrated with the Indo Pacific region. UK service suppliers exported nearly £30 billion worth of services to CPTPP members in 2019.
Also a reminder that we do have a free trade deal with EU which is better than any other country, according to the article.
Not bad for a bunch of alleged f***wits
I wish I could get as glowing a report for improving my performance by 0.1% over the next decade.
0.08%
Alternatively can I borrow your time machine and travel to the future?
Also worth noting that it covers services which is a plus point given the size of the UK services sector.
"The UK already has free trade deals with all of the members except Brunei and Malaysia, some of which were rolled over from its previous membership of the EU.""I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
I guess we'd better hope they're not new entrants we were also already trading with anyway.Stevo_666 said:
Did you miss the part about services? Or the future new entrants?pangolin said:
Did you miss this bit?Stevo_666 said:
Given that exports to CPTPP countries already exceed £60bn a year its hard to see how that estimate is anything other than conservative. Either that or the estimates of the impact from Brexit of 4% are likely overblown. And the estimate will be before you've taken into account likely new entrants to the CPTPP.monkimark said:Over 10 years according the the government's own figures
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65124741
‐----------------
And even with some gains in trading the government only estimates it will add 0.08% to the size of the economy in 10 years.
-----------------Stevo_666 said:
On what basis and over what period?briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:
I wish I could predict the future like you Brian. I've already set out the likely long term benefits, but you appear to be stuck in the old 'the only good trade deal is with the EU' mindset. Time to broaden your horizons I think.briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:More opinions
from the press which paint a positive picture...
The announcement that the UK is to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership is a huge achievement. It should not be underestimated. This will open up free trade between the UK and 11 economies in the Indo Pacific region. It means free trade not just with Australia and New Zealand but with countries like Japan, Canada and Mexico, as well as Singapore and Vietnam. It will in time prove transformational for the British economy.
These countries have a population of 500 million and a GDP of $9 trillion. Japan is the third largest economy in the world. Of the others, many are fast growing and progressive economies, and then there are the more traditional, stable, developed economies of Australia, Canada and Singapore.
The UK will be in a unique position. It already has a free trade agreement with the EU which may not be quite as liberal as being a member of the single market, but nevertheless gives the UK tariff and quota free access to the EU market, as well as being able to import from the EU duty-free. No country has freer trade with the EU than the UK. Add to that free trade with 500 million people in the Indo-Pacific and the UK has amongst the best trading arrangements of any country on earth.
At the moment, the UK’s trade with the CPTPP countries constitutes just 7.8 per cent of its total trade. Critics may think that is unimportant, but remember: these countries are some of the most economically dynamic on earth. It is estimated that by 2030, 65 per cent of the world’s middle-class consumers will be in the Indo Pacific region. So for the naysayers who think the CPTPP may not be important to the British economy, let me remind them that the growth on trade with those 11 economies is already running at around 8 per cent a year.
Once trade barriers are torn down, expect that trade to grow a great deal faster. And while we have no idea how well British exporters will fare in those Indo Pacific markets, the opportunities have now opened up as never before. Getting into the CPTPP is not just beneficial in the short-term, it is locking the British economy into the most economically dynamic region in the world. It constitutes a very serious investment in the future.
Added to the trade statistics, it is important to remember that UK service suppliers are already deeply integrated with the Indo Pacific region. UK service suppliers exported nearly £30 billion worth of services to CPTPP members in 2019.
Also a reminder that we do have a free trade deal with EU which is better than any other country, according to the article.
Not bad for a bunch of alleged f***wits
I wish I could get as glowing a report for improving my performance by 0.1% over the next decade.
0.08%
Alternatively can I borrow your time machine and travel to the future?
Also worth noting that it covers services which is a plus point given the size of the UK services sector.
"The UK already has free trade deals with all of the members except Brunei and Malaysia, some of which were rolled over from its previous membership of the EU."- Genesis Croix de Fer
- Dolan Tuono0 -
The quoted 0.08% of gdp benefit is the incremental impact not the overall value of trade with the countries concerned post-deal.Stevo_666 said:
Given that exports to CPTPP countries already exceed £60bn a year its hard to see how that estimate is anything other than conservative. Either that or the estimates of the impact from Brexit of 4% are likely overblown. And the estimate will be before you've taken into account likely new entrants to the CPTPP.monkimark said:Over 10 years according the the government's own figures
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65124741
‐----------------
And even with some gains in trading the government only estimates it will add 0.08% to the size of the economy in 10 years.
-----------------Stevo_666 said:
On what basis and over what period?briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:
I wish I could predict the future like you Brian. I've already set out the likely long term benefits, but you appear to be stuck in the old 'the only good trade deal is with the EU' mindset. Time to broaden your horizons I think.briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:More opinions
from the press which paint a positive picture...
The announcement that the UK is to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership is a huge achievement. It should not be underestimated. This will open up free trade between the UK and 11 economies in the Indo Pacific region. It means free trade not just with Australia and New Zealand but with countries like Japan, Canada and Mexico, as well as Singapore and Vietnam. It will in time prove transformational for the British economy.
These countries have a population of 500 million and a GDP of $9 trillion. Japan is the third largest economy in the world. Of the others, many are fast growing and progressive economies, and then there are the more traditional, stable, developed economies of Australia, Canada and Singapore.
The UK will be in a unique position. It already has a free trade agreement with the EU which may not be quite as liberal as being a member of the single market, but nevertheless gives the UK tariff and quota free access to the EU market, as well as being able to import from the EU duty-free. No country has freer trade with the EU than the UK. Add to that free trade with 500 million people in the Indo-Pacific and the UK has amongst the best trading arrangements of any country on earth.
At the moment, the UK’s trade with the CPTPP countries constitutes just 7.8 per cent of its total trade. Critics may think that is unimportant, but remember: these countries are some of the most economically dynamic on earth. It is estimated that by 2030, 65 per cent of the world’s middle-class consumers will be in the Indo Pacific region. So for the naysayers who think the CPTPP may not be important to the British economy, let me remind them that the growth on trade with those 11 economies is already running at around 8 per cent a year.
Once trade barriers are torn down, expect that trade to grow a great deal faster. And while we have no idea how well British exporters will fare in those Indo Pacific markets, the opportunities have now opened up as never before. Getting into the CPTPP is not just beneficial in the short-term, it is locking the British economy into the most economically dynamic region in the world. It constitutes a very serious investment in the future.
Added to the trade statistics, it is important to remember that UK service suppliers are already deeply integrated with the Indo Pacific region. UK service suppliers exported nearly £30 billion worth of services to CPTPP members in 2019.
Also a reminder that we do have a free trade deal with EU which is better than any other country, according to the article.
Not bad for a bunch of alleged f***wits
I wish I could get as glowing a report for improving my performance by 0.1% over the next decade.
0.08%
Alternatively can I borrow your time machine and travel to the future?
Also worth noting that it covers services which is a plus point given the size of the UK services sector.
I suspect you know this already though, being a bright “numbers man”.
0 -
Emotions are highly relevant in respect of the question of yours that I answered: “Why aren’t people more excited about this large trade deal?”Stevo_666 said:
Emotional terms? Irrelevant. In any event, it was a relationship that one party wasn't comfortable with.wallace_and_gromit said:
No-one’s excited about a major trade deal for two reasons:Stevo_666 said:
Careful what you wish for is all I can say. If Starmer does take over then we'll have bigger issues than Brexit (actually we already do but this will add to the pile).wallace_and_gromit said:
You asked why people keep going back to the decision to leave the EU. My explanation was that leaving the EU in the way we did was a f*ckwit decision, made by the same f*ckwits that are still in charge, and that reminding people of this fact will hopefully help their decision-making in the future.Stevo_666 said:
My question was to W&G. But in any event don't confuse facts with opinion.pangolin said:
You seemed to be alluding to the Government making a clever move and W&G is reminding you that they are demonstrably f*ckwits. Seems to address the point.Stevo_666 said:
Not sure how that addresses my point?wallace_and_gromit said:
I know this is a rhetorical question but the answer is that the party that thought it such a good idea to negotiate with the EU via insults, rhetoric and a total absence of rigorous analysis are still in charge. (e.g. Raab, who was unaware of the geographical significance of Dover-Calais in UK-EU trade is still a senior minister and f*ckits like Cash, Anderson, Brigden and Francois are influential MPs).Stevo_666 said:I am looking at the opportunities a major new trade deal but all I seem to be getting back is 'but the EU was better'. So what if it was?
Their incompetence / lack of judgement needs maximum publicity rather than being conveniently forgotten so that if anyone feels compelled to vote for them next time they are aware that they are voting for a bunch of morons, notwithstanding Sunak's recent conversion to professionalism now that it suits him.
When Starmer takes over, there will be much less reference to the decision to leave the EU, as he was a remainer.
Tbh when I posted news of a major needs trade deal I had hoped for a bit more than the usual 'but its not the EU' (irrelevant as where we are now its not a one or the other choice); and 'but it's the nasty Torwies' (which seems to be more about people taking out their frustrations in life on the ruling party rather than being relevant to the point).
Hey ho.
1) In practical terms, this is not a major deal. It is a deal with a group of countries with a lot of GDP that has minimal incremental impact for the U.K.
2) In emotional terms, it’s equivalent to being dumped by a long term partner and then being expected to be excited when told you can bring a “+1” to your ex’s wedding. Being able to bring a “+1” to a wedding isn’t bad news in itself, but rather misses the big issue.
Exports to the EU are already less than no EU exports and we know where the potential lies, so best concentrate on that rather than looking backwards.
People aren’t excited because that’s how they feel, and people feel how they feel based on emotion to a large extent.
The entire eu referendum was won on emotion!
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So what is your view on this new trade deal. Do you think we should do it or not?pangolin said:
I guess we'd better hope they're not new entrants we were also already trading with anyway.Stevo_666 said:
Did you miss the part about services? Or the future new entrants?pangolin said:
Did you miss this bit?Stevo_666 said:
Given that exports to CPTPP countries already exceed £60bn a year its hard to see how that estimate is anything other than conservative. Either that or the estimates of the impact from Brexit of 4% are likely overblown. And the estimate will be before you've taken into account likely new entrants to the CPTPP.monkimark said:Over 10 years according the the government's own figures
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65124741
‐----------------
And even with some gains in trading the government only estimates it will add 0.08% to the size of the economy in 10 years.
-----------------Stevo_666 said:
On what basis and over what period?briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:
I wish I could predict the future like you Brian. I've already set out the likely long term benefits, but you appear to be stuck in the old 'the only good trade deal is with the EU' mindset. Time to broaden your horizons I think.briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:More opinions
from the press which paint a positive picture...
The announcement that the UK is to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership is a huge achievement. It should not be underestimated. This will open up free trade between the UK and 11 economies in the Indo Pacific region. It means free trade not just with Australia and New Zealand but with countries like Japan, Canada and Mexico, as well as Singapore and Vietnam. It will in time prove transformational for the British economy.
These countries have a population of 500 million and a GDP of $9 trillion. Japan is the third largest economy in the world. Of the others, many are fast growing and progressive economies, and then there are the more traditional, stable, developed economies of Australia, Canada and Singapore.
The UK will be in a unique position. It already has a free trade agreement with the EU which may not be quite as liberal as being a member of the single market, but nevertheless gives the UK tariff and quota free access to the EU market, as well as being able to import from the EU duty-free. No country has freer trade with the EU than the UK. Add to that free trade with 500 million people in the Indo-Pacific and the UK has amongst the best trading arrangements of any country on earth.
At the moment, the UK’s trade with the CPTPP countries constitutes just 7.8 per cent of its total trade. Critics may think that is unimportant, but remember: these countries are some of the most economically dynamic on earth. It is estimated that by 2030, 65 per cent of the world’s middle-class consumers will be in the Indo Pacific region. So for the naysayers who think the CPTPP may not be important to the British economy, let me remind them that the growth on trade with those 11 economies is already running at around 8 per cent a year.
Once trade barriers are torn down, expect that trade to grow a great deal faster. And while we have no idea how well British exporters will fare in those Indo Pacific markets, the opportunities have now opened up as never before. Getting into the CPTPP is not just beneficial in the short-term, it is locking the British economy into the most economically dynamic region in the world. It constitutes a very serious investment in the future.
Added to the trade statistics, it is important to remember that UK service suppliers are already deeply integrated with the Indo Pacific region. UK service suppliers exported nearly £30 billion worth of services to CPTPP members in 2019.
Also a reminder that we do have a free trade deal with EU which is better than any other country, according to the article.
Not bad for a bunch of alleged f***wits
I wish I could get as glowing a report for improving my performance by 0.1% over the next decade.
0.08%
Alternatively can I borrow your time machine and travel to the future?
Also worth noting that it covers services which is a plus point given the size of the UK services sector.
"The UK already has free trade deals with all of the members except Brunei and Malaysia, some of which were rolled over from its previous membership of the EU."
It would be good to hear you views on the main issue rather than your usual tactics of sniping from the sidelines."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
I am simply trying to bring a bit of perspective to it in terms of potential scale, if that helps to clarify the point.wallace_and_gromit said:
The quoted 0.08% of gdp benefit is the incremental impact not the overall value of trade with the countries concerned post-deal.Stevo_666 said:
Given that exports to CPTPP countries already exceed £60bn a year its hard to see how that estimate is anything other than conservative. Either that or the estimates of the impact from Brexit of 4% are likely overblown. And the estimate will be before you've taken into account likely new entrants to the CPTPP.monkimark said:Over 10 years according the the government's own figures
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65124741
‐----------------
And even with some gains in trading the government only estimates it will add 0.08% to the size of the economy in 10 years.
-----------------Stevo_666 said:
On what basis and over what period?briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:
I wish I could predict the future like you Brian. I've already set out the likely long term benefits, but you appear to be stuck in the old 'the only good trade deal is with the EU' mindset. Time to broaden your horizons I think.briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:More opinions
from the press which paint a positive picture...
The announcement that the UK is to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership is a huge achievement. It should not be underestimated. This will open up free trade between the UK and 11 economies in the Indo Pacific region. It means free trade not just with Australia and New Zealand but with countries like Japan, Canada and Mexico, as well as Singapore and Vietnam. It will in time prove transformational for the British economy.
These countries have a population of 500 million and a GDP of $9 trillion. Japan is the third largest economy in the world. Of the others, many are fast growing and progressive economies, and then there are the more traditional, stable, developed economies of Australia, Canada and Singapore.
The UK will be in a unique position. It already has a free trade agreement with the EU which may not be quite as liberal as being a member of the single market, but nevertheless gives the UK tariff and quota free access to the EU market, as well as being able to import from the EU duty-free. No country has freer trade with the EU than the UK. Add to that free trade with 500 million people in the Indo-Pacific and the UK has amongst the best trading arrangements of any country on earth.
At the moment, the UK’s trade with the CPTPP countries constitutes just 7.8 per cent of its total trade. Critics may think that is unimportant, but remember: these countries are some of the most economically dynamic on earth. It is estimated that by 2030, 65 per cent of the world’s middle-class consumers will be in the Indo Pacific region. So for the naysayers who think the CPTPP may not be important to the British economy, let me remind them that the growth on trade with those 11 economies is already running at around 8 per cent a year.
Once trade barriers are torn down, expect that trade to grow a great deal faster. And while we have no idea how well British exporters will fare in those Indo Pacific markets, the opportunities have now opened up as never before. Getting into the CPTPP is not just beneficial in the short-term, it is locking the British economy into the most economically dynamic region in the world. It constitutes a very serious investment in the future.
Added to the trade statistics, it is important to remember that UK service suppliers are already deeply integrated with the Indo Pacific region. UK service suppliers exported nearly £30 billion worth of services to CPTPP members in 2019.
Also a reminder that we do have a free trade deal with EU which is better than any other country, according to the article.
Not bad for a bunch of alleged f***wits
I wish I could get as glowing a report for improving my performance by 0.1% over the next decade.
0.08%
Alternatively can I borrow your time machine and travel to the future?
Also worth noting that it covers services which is a plus point given the size of the UK services sector.
I suspect you know this already though, being a bright “numbers man”."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
I appreciate that and tbh, I’m more to your “non-pessimistic” view on the whole thing than many here. But even if the adverse impact of Brexit is over stated 2x and the benefit of the new deal understated 10x then the net impact is -2% plus 1% ie still a net negative.Stevo_666 said:
I am simply trying to bring a bit of perspective to it in terms of potential scale, if that helps to clarify the point.wallace_and_gromit said:
The quoted 0.08% of gdp benefit is the incremental impact not the overall value of trade with the countries concerned post-deal.Stevo_666 said:
Given that exports to CPTPP countries already exceed £60bn a year its hard to see how that estimate is anything other than conservative. Either that or the estimates of the impact from Brexit of 4% are likely overblown. And the estimate will be before you've taken into account likely new entrants to the CPTPP.monkimark said:Over 10 years according the the government's own figures
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65124741
‐----------------
And even with some gains in trading the government only estimates it will add 0.08% to the size of the economy in 10 years.
-----------------Stevo_666 said:
On what basis and over what period?briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:
I wish I could predict the future like you Brian. I've already set out the likely long term benefits, but you appear to be stuck in the old 'the only good trade deal is with the EU' mindset. Time to broaden your horizons I think.briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:More opinions
from the press which paint a positive picture...
The announcement that the UK is to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership is a huge achievement. It should not be underestimated. This will open up free trade between the UK and 11 economies in the Indo Pacific region. It means free trade not just with Australia and New Zealand but with countries like Japan, Canada and Mexico, as well as Singapore and Vietnam. It will in time prove transformational for the British economy.
These countries have a population of 500 million and a GDP of $9 trillion. Japan is the third largest economy in the world. Of the others, many are fast growing and progressive economies, and then there are the more traditional, stable, developed economies of Australia, Canada and Singapore.
The UK will be in a unique position. It already has a free trade agreement with the EU which may not be quite as liberal as being a member of the single market, but nevertheless gives the UK tariff and quota free access to the EU market, as well as being able to import from the EU duty-free. No country has freer trade with the EU than the UK. Add to that free trade with 500 million people in the Indo-Pacific and the UK has amongst the best trading arrangements of any country on earth.
At the moment, the UK’s trade with the CPTPP countries constitutes just 7.8 per cent of its total trade. Critics may think that is unimportant, but remember: these countries are some of the most economically dynamic on earth. It is estimated that by 2030, 65 per cent of the world’s middle-class consumers will be in the Indo Pacific region. So for the naysayers who think the CPTPP may not be important to the British economy, let me remind them that the growth on trade with those 11 economies is already running at around 8 per cent a year.
Once trade barriers are torn down, expect that trade to grow a great deal faster. And while we have no idea how well British exporters will fare in those Indo Pacific markets, the opportunities have now opened up as never before. Getting into the CPTPP is not just beneficial in the short-term, it is locking the British economy into the most economically dynamic region in the world. It constitutes a very serious investment in the future.
Added to the trade statistics, it is important to remember that UK service suppliers are already deeply integrated with the Indo Pacific region. UK service suppliers exported nearly £30 billion worth of services to CPTPP members in 2019.
Also a reminder that we do have a free trade deal with EU which is better than any other country, according to the article.
Not bad for a bunch of alleged f***wits
I wish I could get as glowing a report for improving my performance by 0.1% over the next decade.
0.08%
Alternatively can I borrow your time machine and travel to the future?
Also worth noting that it covers services which is a plus point given the size of the UK services sector.
I suspect you know this already though, being a bright “numbers man”.
So it’s easy to see why folk here do not share your enthusiasm. You can’t simply dismiss leaving the eu as a historical aberration; one of the reasons given for leaving was to be able to do big trade deals elsewhere, so the impact of leaving has to be factored into any assessment of the impact of a new deal.
0 -
Even if those are legitimate concerns. You have to then ask why the majority of the electorate consider labour a safer bet than the Tories.Stevo_666 said:
This is the thing, we don't know because Labour policy on a lot of stuff is deliberately vague as they don't want to scare people and Starmer seems to change his position a fair bit.Jezyboy said:
What do you think starmer will do, crash market confidence and last a handful of days? Run down public services until there's an endless drip of strikes across health, education and transport?Stevo_666 said:
Careful what you wish for is all I can say. If Starmer does take over then we'll have bigger issues than Brexit (actually we already do but this will add to the pile).wallace_and_gromit said:
You asked why people keep going back to the decision to leave the EU. My explanation was that leaving the EU in the way we did was a f*ckwit decision, made by the same f*ckwits that are still in charge, and that reminding people of this fact will hopefully help their decision-making in the future.Stevo_666 said:
My question was to W&G. But in any event don't confuse facts with opinion.pangolin said:
You seemed to be alluding to the Government making a clever move and W&G is reminding you that they are demonstrably f*ckwits. Seems to address the point.Stevo_666 said:
Not sure how that addresses my point?wallace_and_gromit said:
I know this is a rhetorical question but the answer is that the party that thought it such a good idea to negotiate with the EU via insults, rhetoric and a total absence of rigorous analysis are still in charge. (e.g. Raab, who was unaware of the geographical significance of Dover-Calais in UK-EU trade is still a senior minister and f*ckits like Cash, Anderson, Brigden and Francois are influential MPs).Stevo_666 said:I am looking at the opportunities a major new trade deal but all I seem to be getting back is 'but the EU was better'. So what if it was?
Their incompetence / lack of judgement needs maximum publicity rather than being conveniently forgotten so that if anyone feels compelled to vote for them next time they are aware that they are voting for a bunch of morons, notwithstanding Sunak's recent conversion to professionalism now that it suits him.
When Starmer takes over, there will be much less reference to the decision to leave the EU, as he was a remainer.
Tbh when I posted news of a major needs trade deal I had hoped for a bit more than the usual 'but its not the EU' (irrelevant as where we are now its not a one or the other choice); and 'but it's the nasty Torwies' (which seems to be more about people taking out their frustrations in life on the ruling party rather than being relevant to the point).
Hey ho.
Whilst there are undoubtedly bigger issues than Brexit, it does seem that the implications of Brexit are largely have either a small negative, or no impact on these other issues. It just feels like a complete waste of energy.
Clearly letting the unions have more freedom to hold us to random is a perennial concern with Labour. As is the likely re-emergence of the hard from under their rocks if Labour do get in. Beyond that, the exact course is hard to predict but it's likely that they will screw things up.
Glad somebody agrees that Brexit is not a big thing.
The Tories have been truly woeful and incompetent in case you haven’t worked it out.
To keep it relevant to Brexit, all you have to criticise Labour with is project fear whereas the Tories are a known entity.0 -
Hmm, tough choice, someone that may screw things up or known incompetents that have made this country a global laughing stock.0
-
veronese68 said:
Hmm, tough choice, someone that may screw things up or known incompetents that have made this country a global laughing stock.
Maybe now that lots of Tory campaign leaflets are printed in green and blue mentioning Sunak, Labour should go for blue.0 -
Did anyone see if the Stevograph website mentioned the Dover carnage? Nothing there now, like it didn't happen .. will nothing to do with Brexit, obvs. No, definitely not. Braverman said so.0
-
Hmm, still thinking about Starmer's continuing to say he wants to 'make Brexit work', even when the polls are suggesting that he might increase their poll lead of they ditched the mantra...
My thinking is that he is making sure that the Tories can't use it as a weapon in the Red Wall seats, so those voters have to believe he means it (hence no hints of Remainerism), but he's also hoping that the Get Tories Out voters will suspect he's still a Remainer at heart, and will change the messaging once elected.
From the polling, I think it's kinda working, but why he needs to keep an iron grip on the messaging.0 -
Making Brexit work can be interpreted different ways. It would be quite easy to join the Single Market / Customs Union and argue Brexit is done (which we’ve been told is the case for over 3 years) and it is just a way of making it work.1
-
I really don’t think there is any political will to re-open the full Brexit question yet.
Even in a world where we did rejoin, I wouldn’t be starting those wheels turning for another 5 years or so when there is a clear momentum of public opinion that it is widely and unequivocally supporting rejoin with a clear majority.0 -
morstar said:
I really don’t think there is any political will to re-open the full Brexit question yet.
Even in a world where we did rejoin, I wouldn’t be starting those wheels turning for another 5 years or so when there is a clear momentum of public opinion that it is widely and unequivocally supporting rejoin with a clear majority.
Yup. I think there will be 'pragmatic' incremental changes, and a some way down the line there could be a shrug and a "why not?", when the evidence is that it could add a lot more than 0.08% to the balance sheet.
But I think I'm coming to terms with how Starmer is approaching it, electorally : objective no.1 must be to win, and win thoroughly, which probably means different people interpreting the stance different ways - boring and safe, with woolly 'vision' stuff to appeal to aspiration.0 -
But you are still connecting the two deals when it is not an either/or decision.wallace_and_gromit said:
I appreciate that and tbh, I’m more to your “non-pessimistic” view on the whole thing than many here. But even if the adverse impact of Brexit is over stated 2x and the benefit of the new deal understated 10x then the net impact is -2% plus 1% ie still a net negative.Stevo_666 said:
I am simply trying to bring a bit of perspective to it in terms of potential scale, if that helps to clarify the point.wallace_and_gromit said:
The quoted 0.08% of gdp benefit is the incremental impact not the overall value of trade with the countries concerned post-deal.Stevo_666 said:
Given that exports to CPTPP countries already exceed £60bn a year its hard to see how that estimate is anything other than conservative. Either that or the estimates of the impact from Brexit of 4% are likely overblown. And the estimate will be before you've taken into account likely new entrants to the CPTPP.monkimark said:Over 10 years according the the government's own figures
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65124741
‐----------------
And even with some gains in trading the government only estimates it will add 0.08% to the size of the economy in 10 years.
-----------------Stevo_666 said:
On what basis and over what period?briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:
I wish I could predict the future like you Brian. I've already set out the likely long term benefits, but you appear to be stuck in the old 'the only good trade deal is with the EU' mindset. Time to broaden your horizons I think.briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:More opinions
from the press which paint a positive picture...
The announcement that the UK is to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership is a huge achievement. It should not be underestimated. This will open up free trade between the UK and 11 economies in the Indo Pacific region. It means free trade not just with Australia and New Zealand but with countries like Japan, Canada and Mexico, as well as Singapore and Vietnam. It will in time prove transformational for the British economy.
These countries have a population of 500 million and a GDP of $9 trillion. Japan is the third largest economy in the world. Of the others, many are fast growing and progressive economies, and then there are the more traditional, stable, developed economies of Australia, Canada and Singapore.
The UK will be in a unique position. It already has a free trade agreement with the EU which may not be quite as liberal as being a member of the single market, but nevertheless gives the UK tariff and quota free access to the EU market, as well as being able to import from the EU duty-free. No country has freer trade with the EU than the UK. Add to that free trade with 500 million people in the Indo-Pacific and the UK has amongst the best trading arrangements of any country on earth.
At the moment, the UK’s trade with the CPTPP countries constitutes just 7.8 per cent of its total trade. Critics may think that is unimportant, but remember: these countries are some of the most economically dynamic on earth. It is estimated that by 2030, 65 per cent of the world’s middle-class consumers will be in the Indo Pacific region. So for the naysayers who think the CPTPP may not be important to the British economy, let me remind them that the growth on trade with those 11 economies is already running at around 8 per cent a year.
Once trade barriers are torn down, expect that trade to grow a great deal faster. And while we have no idea how well British exporters will fare in those Indo Pacific markets, the opportunities have now opened up as never before. Getting into the CPTPP is not just beneficial in the short-term, it is locking the British economy into the most economically dynamic region in the world. It constitutes a very serious investment in the future.
Added to the trade statistics, it is important to remember that UK service suppliers are already deeply integrated with the Indo Pacific region. UK service suppliers exported nearly £30 billion worth of services to CPTPP members in 2019.
Also a reminder that we do have a free trade deal with EU which is better than any other country, according to the article.
Not bad for a bunch of alleged f***wits
I wish I could get as glowing a report for improving my performance by 0.1% over the next decade.
0.08%
Alternatively can I borrow your time machine and travel to the future?
Also worth noting that it covers services which is a plus point given the size of the UK services sector.
I suspect you know this already though, being a bright “numbers man”.
So it’s easy to see why folk here do not share your enthusiasm. You can’t simply dismiss leaving the eu as a historical aberration; one of the reasons given for leaving was to be able to do big trade deals elsewhere, so the impact of leaving has to be factored into any assessment of the impact of a new deal.
Forget the EU for a minute, we have done what we have done and it isn't likely to change in the short or medium term. Based on what you know and looking just at the CPTPP, do you think we should go ahead and sign up it?"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
This is what I've been saying. First off, would the EU want a malcontent troublemaker (in their eyes) like the UK? Secondly, would we vote to go in when we would have to sign up to the full European package with no opt outs - one example being adoption of the Euro as our currency (which is what I understand is required of 'candidate' countries).morstar said:I really don’t think there is any political will to re-open the full Brexit question yet.
Even in a world where we did rejoin, I wouldn’t be starting those wheels turning for another 5 years or so when there is a clear momentum of public opinion that it is widely and unequivocally supporting rejoin with a clear majority."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Given we have a finite about of time and money we can allocate to signing trade deals Stevo, do you think this was the best option?- Genesis Croix de Fer
- Dolan Tuono0 -
With the relevant strings that are attached to SM membership? No cherry picking on the 4 freedoms, etc.Pross said:Making Brexit work can be interpreted different ways. It would be quite easy to join the Single Market / Customs Union and argue Brexit is done (which we’ve been told is the case for over 3 years) and it is just a way of making it work.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Definitely join it. But with a little realism - it might be “big” but the reality is that the overwhelmingly most likely outcome is that the benefit will be statistically no different from nothing for the U.K., and potentially detrimental via reduced standards, which the public repeatedly say they don’t want to happen when surveyed on the subject.Stevo_666 said:
But you are still connecting the two deals when it is not an either/or decision.wallace_and_gromit said:
I appreciate that and tbh, I’m more to your “non-pessimistic” view on the whole thing than many here. But even if the adverse impact of Brexit is over stated 2x and the benefit of the new deal understated 10x then the net impact is -2% plus 1% ie still a net negative.Stevo_666 said:
I am simply trying to bring a bit of perspective to it in terms of potential scale, if that helps to clarify the point.wallace_and_gromit said:
The quoted 0.08% of gdp benefit is the incremental impact not the overall value of trade with the countries concerned post-deal.Stevo_666 said:
Given that exports to CPTPP countries already exceed £60bn a year its hard to see how that estimate is anything other than conservative. Either that or the estimates of the impact from Brexit of 4% are likely overblown. And the estimate will be before you've taken into account likely new entrants to the CPTPP.monkimark said:Over 10 years according the the government's own figures
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65124741
‐----------------
And even with some gains in trading the government only estimates it will add 0.08% to the size of the economy in 10 years.
-----------------Stevo_666 said:
On what basis and over what period?briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:
I wish I could predict the future like you Brian. I've already set out the likely long term benefits, but you appear to be stuck in the old 'the only good trade deal is with the EU' mindset. Time to broaden your horizons I think.briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:More opinions
from the press which paint a positive picture...
The announcement that the UK is to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership is a huge achievement. It should not be underestimated. This will open up free trade between the UK and 11 economies in the Indo Pacific region. It means free trade not just with Australia and New Zealand but with countries like Japan, Canada and Mexico, as well as Singapore and Vietnam. It will in time prove transformational for the British economy.
These countries have a population of 500 million and a GDP of $9 trillion. Japan is the third largest economy in the world. Of the others, many are fast growing and progressive economies, and then there are the more traditional, stable, developed economies of Australia, Canada and Singapore.
The UK will be in a unique position. It already has a free trade agreement with the EU which may not be quite as liberal as being a member of the single market, but nevertheless gives the UK tariff and quota free access to the EU market, as well as being able to import from the EU duty-free. No country has freer trade with the EU than the UK. Add to that free trade with 500 million people in the Indo-Pacific and the UK has amongst the best trading arrangements of any country on earth.
At the moment, the UK’s trade with the CPTPP countries constitutes just 7.8 per cent of its total trade. Critics may think that is unimportant, but remember: these countries are some of the most economically dynamic on earth. It is estimated that by 2030, 65 per cent of the world’s middle-class consumers will be in the Indo Pacific region. So for the naysayers who think the CPTPP may not be important to the British economy, let me remind them that the growth on trade with those 11 economies is already running at around 8 per cent a year.
Once trade barriers are torn down, expect that trade to grow a great deal faster. And while we have no idea how well British exporters will fare in those Indo Pacific markets, the opportunities have now opened up as never before. Getting into the CPTPP is not just beneficial in the short-term, it is locking the British economy into the most economically dynamic region in the world. It constitutes a very serious investment in the future.
Added to the trade statistics, it is important to remember that UK service suppliers are already deeply integrated with the Indo Pacific region. UK service suppliers exported nearly £30 billion worth of services to CPTPP members in 2019.
Also a reminder that we do have a free trade deal with EU which is better than any other country, according to the article.
Not bad for a bunch of alleged f***wits
I wish I could get as glowing a report for improving my performance by 0.1% over the next decade.
0.08%
Alternatively can I borrow your time machine and travel to the future?
Also worth noting that it covers services which is a plus point given the size of the UK services sector.
I suspect you know this already though, being a bright “numbers man”.
So it’s easy to see why folk here do not share your enthusiasm. You can’t simply dismiss leaving the eu as a historical aberration; one of the reasons given for leaving was to be able to do big trade deals elsewhere, so the impact of leaving has to be factored into any assessment of the impact of a new deal.
Forget the EU for a minute, we have done what we have done and it isn't likely to change in the short or medium term. Based on what you know and looking just at the CPTPP, do you think we should go ahead and sign up it?
0 -
Thank you - we agree then. That's really the case I was making, but as expected too many seemed to take this as an assault on the apparently faultless EU arrangements that used to be in place.wallace_and_gromit said:
Definitely join it.Stevo_666 said:
But you are still connecting the two deals when it is not an either/or decision.wallace_and_gromit said:
I appreciate that and tbh, I’m more to your “non-pessimistic” view on the whole thing than many here. But even if the adverse impact of Brexit is over stated 2x and the benefit of the new deal understated 10x then the net impact is -2% plus 1% ie still a net negative.Stevo_666 said:
I am simply trying to bring a bit of perspective to it in terms of potential scale, if that helps to clarify the point.wallace_and_gromit said:
The quoted 0.08% of gdp benefit is the incremental impact not the overall value of trade with the countries concerned post-deal.Stevo_666 said:
Given that exports to CPTPP countries already exceed £60bn a year its hard to see how that estimate is anything other than conservative. Either that or the estimates of the impact from Brexit of 4% are likely overblown. And the estimate will be before you've taken into account likely new entrants to the CPTPP.monkimark said:Over 10 years according the the government's own figures
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65124741
‐----------------
And even with some gains in trading the government only estimates it will add 0.08% to the size of the economy in 10 years.
-----------------Stevo_666 said:
On what basis and over what period?briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:
I wish I could predict the future like you Brian. I've already set out the likely long term benefits, but you appear to be stuck in the old 'the only good trade deal is with the EU' mindset. Time to broaden your horizons I think.briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:More opinions
from the press which paint a positive picture...
The announcement that the UK is to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership is a huge achievement. It should not be underestimated. This will open up free trade between the UK and 11 economies in the Indo Pacific region. It means free trade not just with Australia and New Zealand but with countries like Japan, Canada and Mexico, as well as Singapore and Vietnam. It will in time prove transformational for the British economy.
These countries have a population of 500 million and a GDP of $9 trillion. Japan is the third largest economy in the world. Of the others, many are fast growing and progressive economies, and then there are the more traditional, stable, developed economies of Australia, Canada and Singapore.
The UK will be in a unique position. It already has a free trade agreement with the EU which may not be quite as liberal as being a member of the single market, but nevertheless gives the UK tariff and quota free access to the EU market, as well as being able to import from the EU duty-free. No country has freer trade with the EU than the UK. Add to that free trade with 500 million people in the Indo-Pacific and the UK has amongst the best trading arrangements of any country on earth.
At the moment, the UK’s trade with the CPTPP countries constitutes just 7.8 per cent of its total trade. Critics may think that is unimportant, but remember: these countries are some of the most economically dynamic on earth. It is estimated that by 2030, 65 per cent of the world’s middle-class consumers will be in the Indo Pacific region. So for the naysayers who think the CPTPP may not be important to the British economy, let me remind them that the growth on trade with those 11 economies is already running at around 8 per cent a year.
Once trade barriers are torn down, expect that trade to grow a great deal faster. And while we have no idea how well British exporters will fare in those Indo Pacific markets, the opportunities have now opened up as never before. Getting into the CPTPP is not just beneficial in the short-term, it is locking the British economy into the most economically dynamic region in the world. It constitutes a very serious investment in the future.
Added to the trade statistics, it is important to remember that UK service suppliers are already deeply integrated with the Indo Pacific region. UK service suppliers exported nearly £30 billion worth of services to CPTPP members in 2019.
Also a reminder that we do have a free trade deal with EU which is better than any other country, according to the article.
Not bad for a bunch of alleged f***wits
I wish I could get as glowing a report for improving my performance by 0.1% over the next decade.
0.08%
Alternatively can I borrow your time machine and travel to the future?
Also worth noting that it covers services which is a plus point given the size of the UK services sector.
I suspect you know this already though, being a bright “numbers man”.
So it’s easy to see why folk here do not share your enthusiasm. You can’t simply dismiss leaving the eu as a historical aberration; one of the reasons given for leaving was to be able to do big trade deals elsewhere, so the impact of leaving has to be factored into any assessment of the impact of a new deal.
Forget the EU for a minute, we have done what we have done and it isn't likely to change in the short or medium term. Based on what you know and looking just at the CPTPP, do you think we should go ahead and sign up it?"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Could it be because you posted this in the Brexit thread? I mean you say that's all water under the bridge yet you've linked it to Brexit, backed up by an article in the Brexit-obsessed Telegraph.Stevo_666 said:
Thank you - we agree then. That's really the case I was making, but as expected too many seemed to take this as an assault on the apparently faultless EU arrangements that used to be in place.wallace_and_gromit said:
Definitely join it.Stevo_666 said:
But you are still connecting the two deals when it is not an either/or decision.wallace_and_gromit said:
I appreciate that and tbh, I’m more to your “non-pessimistic” view on the whole thing than many here. But even if the adverse impact of Brexit is over stated 2x and the benefit of the new deal understated 10x then the net impact is -2% plus 1% ie still a net negative.Stevo_666 said:
I am simply trying to bring a bit of perspective to it in terms of potential scale, if that helps to clarify the point.wallace_and_gromit said:
The quoted 0.08% of gdp benefit is the incremental impact not the overall value of trade with the countries concerned post-deal.Stevo_666 said:
Given that exports to CPTPP countries already exceed £60bn a year its hard to see how that estimate is anything other than conservative. Either that or the estimates of the impact from Brexit of 4% are likely overblown. And the estimate will be before you've taken into account likely new entrants to the CPTPP.monkimark said:Over 10 years according the the government's own figures
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65124741
‐----------------
And even with some gains in trading the government only estimates it will add 0.08% to the size of the economy in 10 years.
-----------------Stevo_666 said:
On what basis and over what period?briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:
I wish I could predict the future like you Brian. I've already set out the likely long term benefits, but you appear to be stuck in the old 'the only good trade deal is with the EU' mindset. Time to broaden your horizons I think.briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:More opinions
from the press which paint a positive picture...
The announcement that the UK is to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership is a huge achievement. It should not be underestimated. This will open up free trade between the UK and 11 economies in the Indo Pacific region. It means free trade not just with Australia and New Zealand but with countries like Japan, Canada and Mexico, as well as Singapore and Vietnam. It will in time prove transformational for the British economy.
These countries have a population of 500 million and a GDP of $9 trillion. Japan is the third largest economy in the world. Of the others, many are fast growing and progressive economies, and then there are the more traditional, stable, developed economies of Australia, Canada and Singapore.
The UK will be in a unique position. It already has a free trade agreement with the EU which may not be quite as liberal as being a member of the single market, but nevertheless gives the UK tariff and quota free access to the EU market, as well as being able to import from the EU duty-free. No country has freer trade with the EU than the UK. Add to that free trade with 500 million people in the Indo-Pacific and the UK has amongst the best trading arrangements of any country on earth.
At the moment, the UK’s trade with the CPTPP countries constitutes just 7.8 per cent of its total trade. Critics may think that is unimportant, but remember: these countries are some of the most economically dynamic on earth. It is estimated that by 2030, 65 per cent of the world’s middle-class consumers will be in the Indo Pacific region. So for the naysayers who think the CPTPP may not be important to the British economy, let me remind them that the growth on trade with those 11 economies is already running at around 8 per cent a year.
Once trade barriers are torn down, expect that trade to grow a great deal faster. And while we have no idea how well British exporters will fare in those Indo Pacific markets, the opportunities have now opened up as never before. Getting into the CPTPP is not just beneficial in the short-term, it is locking the British economy into the most economically dynamic region in the world. It constitutes a very serious investment in the future.
Added to the trade statistics, it is important to remember that UK service suppliers are already deeply integrated with the Indo Pacific region. UK service suppliers exported nearly £30 billion worth of services to CPTPP members in 2019.
Also a reminder that we do have a free trade deal with EU which is better than any other country, according to the article.
Not bad for a bunch of alleged f***wits
I wish I could get as glowing a report for improving my performance by 0.1% over the next decade.
0.08%
Alternatively can I borrow your time machine and travel to the future?
Also worth noting that it covers services which is a plus point given the size of the UK services sector.
I suspect you know this already though, being a bright “numbers man”.
So it’s easy to see why folk here do not share your enthusiasm. You can’t simply dismiss leaving the eu as a historical aberration; one of the reasons given for leaving was to be able to do big trade deals elsewhere, so the impact of leaving has to be factored into any assessment of the impact of a new deal.
Forget the EU for a minute, we have done what we have done and it isn't likely to change in the short or medium term. Based on what you know and looking just at the CPTPP, do you think we should go ahead and sign up it?1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
Love the way you ignore the rest of the response.Stevo_666 said:
Thank you - we agree then. That's really the case I was making, but as expected too many seemed to take this as an assault on the apparently faultless EU arrangements that used to be in place.wallace_and_gromit said:
Definitely join it.Stevo_666 said:
But you are still connecting the two deals when it is not an either/or decision.wallace_and_gromit said:
I appreciate that and tbh, I’m more to your “non-pessimistic” view on the whole thing than many here. But even if the adverse impact of Brexit is over stated 2x and the benefit of the new deal understated 10x then the net impact is -2% plus 1% ie still a net negative.Stevo_666 said:
I am simply trying to bring a bit of perspective to it in terms of potential scale, if that helps to clarify the point.wallace_and_gromit said:
The quoted 0.08% of gdp benefit is the incremental impact not the overall value of trade with the countries concerned post-deal.Stevo_666 said:
Given that exports to CPTPP countries already exceed £60bn a year its hard to see how that estimate is anything other than conservative. Either that or the estimates of the impact from Brexit of 4% are likely overblown. And the estimate will be before you've taken into account likely new entrants to the CPTPP.monkimark said:Over 10 years according the the government's own figures
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65124741
‐----------------
And even with some gains in trading the government only estimates it will add 0.08% to the size of the economy in 10 years.
-----------------Stevo_666 said:
On what basis and over what period?briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:
I wish I could predict the future like you Brian. I've already set out the likely long term benefits, but you appear to be stuck in the old 'the only good trade deal is with the EU' mindset. Time to broaden your horizons I think.briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:More opinions
from the press which paint a positive picture...
The announcement that the UK is to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership is a huge achievement. It should not be underestimated. This will open up free trade between the UK and 11 economies in the Indo Pacific region. It means free trade not just with Australia and New Zealand but with countries like Japan, Canada and Mexico, as well as Singapore and Vietnam. It will in time prove transformational for the British economy.
These countries have a population of 500 million and a GDP of $9 trillion. Japan is the third largest economy in the world. Of the others, many are fast growing and progressive economies, and then there are the more traditional, stable, developed economies of Australia, Canada and Singapore.
The UK will be in a unique position. It already has a free trade agreement with the EU which may not be quite as liberal as being a member of the single market, but nevertheless gives the UK tariff and quota free access to the EU market, as well as being able to import from the EU duty-free. No country has freer trade with the EU than the UK. Add to that free trade with 500 million people in the Indo-Pacific and the UK has amongst the best trading arrangements of any country on earth.
At the moment, the UK’s trade with the CPTPP countries constitutes just 7.8 per cent of its total trade. Critics may think that is unimportant, but remember: these countries are some of the most economically dynamic on earth. It is estimated that by 2030, 65 per cent of the world’s middle-class consumers will be in the Indo Pacific region. So for the naysayers who think the CPTPP may not be important to the British economy, let me remind them that the growth on trade with those 11 economies is already running at around 8 per cent a year.
Once trade barriers are torn down, expect that trade to grow a great deal faster. And while we have no idea how well British exporters will fare in those Indo Pacific markets, the opportunities have now opened up as never before. Getting into the CPTPP is not just beneficial in the short-term, it is locking the British economy into the most economically dynamic region in the world. It constitutes a very serious investment in the future.
Added to the trade statistics, it is important to remember that UK service suppliers are already deeply integrated with the Indo Pacific region. UK service suppliers exported nearly £30 billion worth of services to CPTPP members in 2019.
Also a reminder that we do have a free trade deal with EU which is better than any other country, according to the article.
Not bad for a bunch of alleged f***wits
I wish I could get as glowing a report for improving my performance by 0.1% over the next decade.
0.08%
Alternatively can I borrow your time machine and travel to the future?
Also worth noting that it covers services which is a plus point given the size of the UK services sector.
I suspect you know this already though, being a bright “numbers man”.
So it’s easy to see why folk here do not share your enthusiasm. You can’t simply dismiss leaving the eu as a historical aberration; one of the reasons given for leaving was to be able to do big trade deals elsewhere, so the impact of leaving has to be factored into any assessment of the impact of a new deal.
Forget the EU for a minute, we have done what we have done and it isn't likely to change in the short or medium term. Based on what you know and looking just at the CPTPP, do you think we should go ahead and sign up it?0
