BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

diy

I must admit, I am torn on this one.
- We have to stop the rapid change of the UK, 3M and rising is putting a massive strain on services. You can't scale up quickly without huge investment.
- The EU is heading in the wrong direction and will be a millstone around our necks.

But I reckon there will be huge revenge if we leave.

I'm still minded to vote leave - because I think Britain can make a go of it.
If we spend our EU money on Defence the US will be our mates again.

For Scotland to get another go at a leave campaign, they'd have to convince their own people there was money there. Oil and gas is gone/worthless now

rick_chasey

Immigration into the UK won't change overnight.

It, as one of the biggest economies, and one of the countries dropping bombs in Syria, Libya and Iraq it has an obligation to help with refugees Just because there's continental Europe and some water doesn't mean it can be a free rider.

Anyway, because they're refugees from outside the EU, the EU has no say over how many or few the UK takes on. As I keep saying...

As for EU migrants, some evidence to suggest they don't stay in the UK forever. Just long enough to make a nest and head back.

Stevo_666

I've volunteered last week to coordinate our Groups BREXIT contingency planning team - partly because it's a good way of educating myself properly in time for the referendum. I am learning a quite a bit on this, interesting stuff.

jjsh

Rick Chasey wrote:

Anyway, because they're refugees from outside the EU, the EU has no say over how many or few the UK takes on. As I keep saying...

This is only correct until they are granted EU citizenship, which Germany at least has said it intends to do, at which point they gain the rights to free movement of any EU citizen. Thus, they would be free to live and work in any EU country.

Stevo_666

JJSH wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Anyway, because they're refugees from outside the EU, the EU has no say over how many or few the UK takes on. As I keep saying...

This is only correct until they are granted EU citizenship, which Germany at least has said it intends to do, at which point they gain the rights to free movement of any EU citizen. Thus, they would be free to live and work in any EU country.

At which point the cartoon posted by Mr. Goo above becomes quite relevant to us...

mamba80

Stevo 666 wrote:

JJSH wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Anyway, because they're refugees from outside the EU, the EU has no say over how many or few the UK takes on. As I keep saying...

This is only correct until they are granted EU citizenship, which Germany at least has said it intends to do, at which point they gain the rights to free movement of any EU citizen. Thus, they would be free to live and work in any EU country.

At which point the cartoon posted by Mr. Goo above becomes quite relevant to us...

Strange that though there is a lot of political difference between us, on this subject we more or less agree :shock:

Stevo_666

mamba80 wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

JJSH wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Anyway, because they're refugees from outside the EU, the EU has no say over how many or few the UK takes on. As I keep saying...

This is only correct until they are granted EU citizenship, which Germany at least has said it intends to do, at which point they gain the rights to free movement of any EU citizen. Thus, they would be free to live and work in any EU country.

At which point the cartoon posted by Mr. Goo above becomes quite relevant to us...

Strange that though there is a lot of political difference between us, on this subject we more or less agree :shock:

Yikes, I'd better change my mind quick :P

rick_chasey

Well that's the 2nd piece of work I worked hard to get in postponed until outcome of vote is known.

From the client: "you better hope it's IN"

Ffs.

DeVlaeminck

Rick Chasey wrote:

Immigration into the UK won't change overnight.

It, as one of the biggest economies, and one of the countries dropping bombs in Syria, Libya and Iraq it has an obligation to help with refugees Just because there's continental Europe and some water doesn't mean it can be a free rider.
.

If us dropping bombs in Syria is a "bad thing" then isn't the obligation on us to stop doing it rather than take in refugees? If it's a "good thing" then why does doing it mean we take on a further obligation that we'd avoid if we had done nothing?

jjsh

Rick Chasey wrote:

Well that's the 2nd piece of work I worked hard to get in postponed until outcome of vote is known.

From the client: "you better hope it's IN"

Ffs.

Whereas, the company I work for has just signed a multi million pound deal with an international company who couldn't care less either way. Neither situations prove anything. Sample size of one, and all that.

rick_chasey

Yeah but since my pay is heavily skewed towards "eat what you kill" it's getting pretty expensive for me.

mr_goo

I would like to propose that Cameron visits the USA in order to tell the American population who to vote for in the Presidential elections.

pblakeney

Rick Chasey wrote:

Yeah but since my pay is heavily skewed towards "eat what you kill" it's getting pretty expensive for me.

An observation.
Those touting to stay in appear to be doing so due to vested interests.
Those touting to come out seem to be doing so in blind faith in things becoming better.
No conclusion, just an observation.

mr_goo

PBlakeney wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Yeah but since my pay is heavily skewed towards "eat what you kill" it's getting pretty expensive for me.

An observation.
Those touting to stay in appear to be doing so due to vested interests.
Those touting to come out seem to be doing so in blind faith in things becoming better.
No conclusion, just an observation.

Another observation. Those in the Stay In campaign are all claiming doom and gloom, loss of jobs, loss of exports, loss of security, loss of environmental protection!
Those in the Out of EU campaign are at least positive in their approach, claiming that the UK can negotiate better trade deals, that Europe and rest of world will still want to trade with us, that we can improve our border security.

rick_chasey

Yeah duh, that'd because an IN vote is a status quo vote.

We already have the benefits, since we are already a part of the EU.

What do you want in voters to say?

bompington

Mr Goo wrote:

Another observation. Those in the Stay In campaign are all claiming doom and gloom, loss of jobs, loss of exports, loss of security, loss of environmental protection!
Those in the Out of EU campaign are at least positive in their approach, claiming that the UK can negotiate better trade deals, that Europe and rest of world will still want to trade with us, that we can improve our border security.

Ah yes, much like we had in the Scottish independence referendum.
The tactics of the "Out" side:
1. put out a whole load of predictions for how amazing everything would be after independence, based on nothing more than wishful thinking.
2. when the "In" side dare to suggest that, well, it's nothing more than wishful thinking, shout "Scaremongering! Doing Scotland down! ******* Tories!"

The EU outers are pretty much the same, except that they haven't even tried to make any specific predictions, just vague promises that say nothing specific but aim to leave the feeling that we'll all dwell in peace and freedom (chiefly freedom from pesky foreigners) and have our own pet unicorns.

Please note that I'm not saying that things would not be better out of the EU - just that there is a vast hole where the forecasts should be.

ballysmate

Rick Chasey wrote:

Yeah duh, that'd because an IN vote is a status quo vote.

We already have the benefits, since we are already a part of the EU.

What do you want in voters to say?

That would be sufficient if they were readily apparent. But that's the problem for the IN camp, to vast swathes of the population, they are not.

surrey_commuter

Ballysmate wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Yeah duh, that'd because an IN vote is a status quo vote.

We already have the benefits, since we are already a part of the EU.

What do you want in voters to say?

That would be sufficient if they were readily apparent. But that's the problem for the IN camp, to vast swathes of the population, they are not.

But if somebody can not see the benefits of being part of the world's largest free trade area and accept that there are costs associated with that then trying to explain it to them is probably a waste of time. Far better to keep it simple and argue for the status-quo and highlight the potential pitfalls of leaving.

rick_chasey

Ballysmate wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Yeah duh, that'd because an IN vote is a status quo vote.

We already have the benefits, since we are already a part of the EU.

What do you want in voters to say?

That would be sufficient if they were readily apparent. But that's the problem for the IN camp, to vast swathes of the population, they are not.

People get used to the benefits. Free trade, access to largest single market in the world, blah blah. People can't distngiuish between what's an EU benefit and what isn't since it's so ingrained in the system.

It's like clothes. You don't notice people wearing them all the time until theyre not. Do we really have to walk around naked in the cold before we realise clothes are useful?

Stevo_666

bompington wrote:

Mr Goo wrote:

Another observation. Those in the Stay In campaign are all claiming doom and gloom, loss of jobs, loss of exports, loss of security, loss of environmental protection!
Those in the Out of EU campaign are at least positive in their approach, claiming that the UK can negotiate better trade deals, that Europe and rest of world will still want to trade with us, that we can improve our border security.

Ah yes, much like we had in the Scottish independence referendum.
The tactics of the "Out" side:
1. put out a whole load of predictions for how amazing everything would be after independence, based on nothing more than wishful thinking.
2. when the "In" side dare to suggest that, well, it's nothing more than wishful thinking, shout "Scaremongering! Doing Scotland down! ******* Tories!"

The EU outers are pretty much the same, except that they haven't even tried to make any specific predictions, just vague promises that say nothing specific but aim to leave the feeling that we'll all dwell in peace and freedom (chiefly freedom from pesky foreigners) and have our own pet unicorns.

Please note that I'm not saying that things would not be better out of the EU - just that there is a vast hole where the forecasts should be.

To be fair, the hole in the sums of the Scottish 'out' camp was bleedin obvious. Their balancing of the books depended on oil prices above $100 per barrel which was unrealistic before and is looking like a complete joke now.

The problem with this referendum is that the economic pros and cons are harder to forecast and quantify. The Brexit forecast papers issued by banks etc that I have seen do indicate more economic upside/less downside from staying in, but again that is based on assumptions that have a fair bit of of flex in them as well as uncertainty of how far we might divorce ourselves from Europe once the decision is taken, reaction of the EU etc.

jjsh

Rick Chasey wrote:

Yeah duh, that'd because an IN vote is a status quo vote.

Not strictly true, as the EU is in a constant state of flux, therefore, there is no 'status quo' when its comes to our relationship with the EU, as by design it's instinct is to centralise more and more powers and competencies. That may be for the UK’s benefit, it may be for it's detriment, but in that respect, a vote to stay in is not a vote for what we have now, aka the status quo, but to remain in that process.

The remain camp should be upfront about that, IMHO, instead of pretending otherwise, i.e. the sham renegotiation, etc. Make the positive case for increasingly giving up the right to self determination.

rick_chasey

Plenty of other members have declared the era of ever close Union is no more. Dutch said it explicitly.

It has even passed a bill "allowing those that want to deepen integration to move ahead, while respecting the wish of those who do not want to deepen further."

As you say, the trajectory of it can change. A lot of members see the UK relationship - a transactional one - as one to learn from.

ballysmate

Alan Johnson claims Wales could leave the UK in the event of a Brexit vote.
Even Plaid Cymru reckon he is talking out his ar5e.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... ights.html

Mr Miliband admitted that many Labour voters were concerned the danger that Eastern European migrants were undercutting their wages – saying constituents brought it up with him when he held his surgeries.


This referendum will be decided by the vote of working class Labour voters who feel the pressure on their jobs and wages.

bompington

Ballysmate wrote:

This referendum will be decided by the vote of working class Labour voters

Not a lot of them left though...

laurentian

Apologies if this has been posted before but this is quite an interesting document - albeit one that is skewed toward a "Remain" argument. Like many others, I think a lack of proper, easy to understand information on the argument will mean that people are more likely to base their vote on red top headlines or internet memes.

It would be useful to see it's "out" counterpart.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/s ... the_EU.pdf

finchy

Looking at the opinion polls, telephone polling, which tends to be more accurate than online polling, shows a large lead for the "In" camp. I just hope that all those supporters of EU membership bother to turn out on the day, because I'm sure the anti-EU turnout will be very high.

Stevo_666

finchy wrote:

Looking at the opinion polls, telephone polling, which tends to be more accurate than online polling, shows a large lead for the "In" camp. I just hope that all those supporters of EU membership bother to turn out on the day, because I'm sure the anti-EU turnout will be very high.

I think there is an element of the 'silent ins', a bit like the 'shy tories' from the last election. Also there is the fear of the unknown factor that will weigh on people closer to the actual vote that will tend to sway people more towards voting in - or possibly abstaining rather than voting out.

My coordinating the BREXIT contingency team at work is proving to be quite interesting. I have seen quite a few economic type forecasts from the large institutions and advisors. It doesn't alter my overall view but it was pretty clear that it will be a lot more work on the professional front if we leave!

earth

People who are asking for factual reasons about the economy for leaving couldn't get a better answer than this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=leKEUT1TiLU

Prof Patrick Minford.

rick_chasey

Couple things there.

Firstly - fairly loose interpretation of the word 'fact' there.

Secondly - when the video opens with referring to the EU as 'idiots' it's difficult to take it seriously...!

ballysmate

finchy wrote:

Looking at the opinion polls, telephone polling, which tends to be more accurate than online polling, shows a large lead for the "In" camp. I just hope that all those supporters of EU membership bother to turn out on the day, because I'm sure the anti-EU turnout will be very high.

The country will vote to remain in. There always seems to be a general tilt towards the status quo in referenda, people shy away from change.
Even though I think the EU is deeply flawed, I will vote to stay in for the reasons given in the EU Poll thread.
We have been served a sh1t sandwich and we have just got to keep eating.