BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴
Comments
-
On this: http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-k-regulat ... 1464993759Rick Chasey wrote:TheBigBean wrote:Joelsim wrote:So, VTB and Morgan Stanley are the first banks to say there moving significant parts of their operations if we don't have free access. The quote is 'it's not complicated'.
What are they moving and to where?
Have they asked the staff? I know one partner at a law firm who said that the idea of moving from the City to Canary Wharf resulted in resignations being threaten all over the place.
Most of VTB's lot aren't UK nationals anyway, in my experience. And I suspect their issue is they also don't welcome the scrutiny they'll get for some of the deals they've done in Mozambique.0 -
Joelsim wrote:Yes, and by the end of year 15 we'll have to made tax increases/service cuts and/or loan repayments potentially to the tune of £66bn + £61.6bn + £57.2bn...£4.4bn just to stand still. That's hundreds of billions of pounds.
correct - but it will change nothing as the Brexit powers that be knew this already. It is the cost worth paying0 -
Surrey Commuter wrote:Joelsim wrote:Yes, and by the end of year 15 we'll have to made tax increases/service cuts and/or loan repayments potentially to the tune of £66bn + £61.6bn + £57.2bn...£4.4bn just to stand still. That's hundreds of billions of pounds.
correct - but it will change nothing as the Brexit powers that be knew this already. It is the cost worth paying
To me it's like a cyclist cutting his leg off in order to lose weight.
I can't speak for the morons though.0 -
I went looking for Morgan Stanley quotes. Here's James Gorman as reported in the FT. Quite possibly just a compliance move, but support for increased trade in New York.He said the bank was looking at whether it needs a new headquarters in the eurozone, or to move some compliance and back-office teams to the bloc.
“Do you have the infrastructure you need in any of these places?” he asked, adding: “I think the big winner is going to be New York. I think that will be one of the big consequences here.”
In the same article on the EU. This is the worrying part. The EU really doesn't get it.However, after meeting Valdis Dombrovskis, the EU’s head of financial regulation, in Washington last week, Wall Street bankers were pessimistic about their chances of securing an early commitment from Brussels on a transition period. “He just doesn’t get it,” said one US bank boss.0 -
Rick Chasey wrote:mamba80 wrote:TheBigBean wrote:Joelsim wrote:So, VTB and Morgan Stanley are the first banks to say there moving significant parts of their operations if we don't have free access. The quote is 'it's not complicated'.
What are they moving and to where?
Have they asked the staff? I know one partner at a law firm who said that the idea of moving from the City to Canary Wharf resulted in resignations being threaten all over the place.
Isnt New York the winners from Brexit? banks might have issues relocating to Paris or Frankfurt but NY not such a hard choice.
.
Wrong continent.
Need to be in the same timezone as Europe if you want to do business with Europe.
when i worked in the City in the early 90s traders traded with other floors other than Europe, we had a 24/7 support function just for this and we earned a fortune covering tech support on dealer boards.
anyhow this guy thinks NY could well gain.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... k-exchange0 -
Yeah sure traders. They're a bunch of screen jockeys. There's limited reason for them to be in the office at all to be honest, other then for the highbrow bantz and abuse of local pizza boys.
In the rest of the city, like in any business you need face-to-face contact.0 -
Rick Chasey wrote:
On this: http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-k-regulat ... 1464993759Rick Chasey wrote:TheBigBean wrote:Joelsim wrote:So, VTB and Morgan Stanley are the first banks to say there moving significant parts of their operations if we don't have free access. The quote is 'it's not complicated'.
What are they moving and to where?
Have they asked the staff? I know one partner at a law firm who said that the idea of moving from the City to Canary Wharf resulted in resignations being threaten all over the place.
Most of VTB's lot aren't UK nationals anyway, in my experience. And I suspect their issue is they also don't welcome the scrutiny they'll get for some of the deals they've done in Mozambique.
Russian state owned bank currently subject to sanctions looks to move under fire regulatory team from London.0 -
-
Rick Chasey wrote:Yeah sure traders. They're a bunch of screen jockeys. There's limited reason for them to be in the office at all to be honest, other then for the highbrow bantz and abuse of local pizza boys.
In the rest of the city, like in any business you need face-to-face contact.
Indeed, yet the great plan to move them all to Switzerland didn't really work.
It'll be even harder if access to people and law is required, because no one wants to bank under French law, and no one wants to spend every day flying back to London.
Maybe structuring it like all the Luxembourg / Guernsey / Cayman entities will do the job. A plaque on the wall somewhere in the EU.0 -
Joelsim wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:Joelsim wrote:Yes, and by the end of year 15 we'll have to made tax increases/service cuts and/or loan repayments potentially to the tune of £66bn + £61.6bn + £57.2bn...£4.4bn just to stand still. That's hundreds of billions of pounds.
correct - but it will change nothing as the Brexit powers that be knew this already. It is the cost worth paying
To me it's like a cyclist cutting his leg off in order to lose weight.
I can't speak for the morons though.
To understand a Brexiteer you must think like Brexiteer. Insulting them achieves nothing. A good question to ask would be "is their a price they would not be willing to pay?"0 -
Oct 11 Banks will have to start moving staff if Britain loses access to the European single market post-Brexit, Rob Rooney, CEO of Morgan Stanley international said on Tuesday.
"It really isn't terribly complicated. If we are outside the EU and we don't have what would be a stable and long term commitment to access to the single market then a lot of the things we do today in London, we'd have to do inside the EU 27," he told delegates at a conference in London.
"In the days after we lose access, if that's what happens, the jobs that go, may be somewhat significant or they may not... It will be a much more expensive model over time...We would be operating a much less efficient business model, we'd have to see how that evolves."0 -
This is perhaps the most frustrating aspect of the whole Brexit debate. The idea that it is easy to be global financial centre, and it is low hanging fruit waiting to be moved. I mean, if it was so easy to move why pay sky high rents in the City when you could rent the whole of Sunderland?
The trouble is the EU actually believes it is easy, so will do everything it can to collectively destroy value.0 -
Surrey Commuter wrote:Joelsim wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:Joelsim wrote:Yes, and by the end of year 15 we'll have to made tax increases/service cuts and/or loan repayments potentially to the tune of £66bn + £61.6bn + £57.2bn...£4.4bn just to stand still. That's hundreds of billions of pounds.
correct - but it will change nothing as the Brexit powers that be knew this already. It is the cost worth paying
To me it's like a cyclist cutting his leg off in order to lose weight.
I can't speak for the morons though.
To understand a Brexiteer you must think like Brexiteer. Insulting them achieves nothing. A good question to ask would be "is their a price they would not be willing to pay?"
Yes, thinking like a Brexiteer would be a major problem. It'd require a brain transplant.0 -
Joelsim wrote:Oct 11 Banks will have to start moving staff if Britain loses access to the European single market post-Brexit, Rob Rooney, CEO of Morgan Stanley international said on Tuesday.
I quoted his boss above.0 -
TheBigBean wrote:This is perhaps the most frustrating aspect of the whole Brexit debate. The idea that it is easy to be global financial centre, and it is low hanging fruit waiting to be moved. I mean, if it was so easy to move why pay sky high rents in the City when you could rent the whole of Sunderland?
The trouble is the EU actually believes it is easy, so will do everything it can to collectively destroy value.
That was entirely foreseen by remainers however.
That's the frustration.
That Norway comment in that article was revealing.Norway has said it could block a UK bid for Efta membership. The European affairs minister, Elisabeth Vik Aspaker, said in August it was “not certain it would be a good idea to let a big country into this organisation. It would shift the balance, which is not necessarily in Norway’s interests.”
and rather like the debate we had in Britain about how much pain we would take, they're having the same in Norway, suggesting that they might not take the most rational approach either, despite UK being their biggest customer.Trygve Slagsvold Vedum, the leader of Norway’s Centre party, accused the Norwegian government of dragging its feet in response to the Brexit vote, telling Dagens Næringsliv that Britain was Norway’s biggest export market and it was “very strange” to reject closer dialogue.0 -
Rick Chasey wrote:TheBigBean wrote:This is perhaps the most frustrating aspect of the whole Brexit debate. The idea that it is easy to be global financial centre, and it is low hanging fruit waiting to be moved. I mean, if it was so easy to move why pay sky high rents in the City when you could rent the whole of Sunderland?
The trouble is the EU actually believes it is easy, so will do everything it can to collectively destroy value.
That was entirely foreseen by remainers however.
That's the frustration.
That Norway comment in that article was revealing.Norway has said it could block a UK bid for Efta membership. The European affairs minister, Elisabeth Vik Aspaker, said in August it was “not certain it would be a good idea to let a big country into this organisation. It would shift the balance, which is not necessarily in Norway’s interests.”
and rather like the debate we had in Britain about how much pain we would take, they're having the same in Norway, suggesting that they might not take the most rational approach either, despite UK being their biggest customer.Trygve Slagsvold Vedum, the leader of Norway’s Centre party, accused the Norwegian government of dragging its feet in response to the Brexit vote, telling Dagens Næringsliv that Britain was Norway’s biggest export market and it was “very strange” to reject closer dialogue.
Imagine trying to negotiate with 27 nations, all with their own requirements and things to protect. And all with a veto.0 -
Joelsim wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:Joelsim wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:Joelsim wrote:Yes, and by the end of year 15 we'll have to made tax increases/service cuts and/or loan repayments potentially to the tune of £66bn + £61.6bn + £57.2bn...£4.4bn just to stand still. That's hundreds of billions of pounds.
correct - but it will change nothing as the Brexit powers that be knew this already. It is the cost worth paying
To me it's like a cyclist cutting his leg off in order to lose weight.
I can't speak for the morons though.
To understand a Brexiteer you must think like Brexiteer. Insulting them achieves nothing. A good question to ask would be "is their a price they would not be willing to pay?"
Yes, thinking like a Brexiteer would be a major problem. It'd require a brain transplant.
seriously you should try and understand their motivations0 -
Rick Chasey wrote:TheBigBean wrote:This is perhaps the most frustrating aspect of the whole Brexit debate. The idea that it is easy to be global financial centre, and it is low hanging fruit waiting to be moved. I mean, if it was so easy to move why pay sky high rents in the City when you could rent the whole of Sunderland?
The trouble is the EU actually believes it is easy, so will do everything it can to collectively destroy value.
That was entirely foreseen by remainers however.
Whilst compelling, I just found that a thoroughly depressing reason to vote remain.0 -
Surrey Commuter wrote:Joelsim wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:Joelsim wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:Joelsim wrote:Yes, and by the end of year 15 we'll have to made tax increases/service cuts and/or loan repayments potentially to the tune of £66bn + £61.6bn + £57.2bn...£4.4bn just to stand still. That's hundreds of billions of pounds.
correct - but it will change nothing as the Brexit powers that be knew this already. It is the cost worth paying
To me it's like a cyclist cutting his leg off in order to lose weight.
I can't speak for the morons though.
To understand a Brexiteer you must think like Brexiteer. Insulting them achieves nothing. A good question to ask would be "is their a price they would not be willing to pay?"
Yes, thinking like a Brexiteer would be a major problem. It'd require a brain transplant.
seriously you should try and understand their motivations
I know their motivations and fundamentally disagree with them.0 -
TheBigBean wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:TheBigBean wrote:This is perhaps the most frustrating aspect of the whole Brexit debate. The idea that it is easy to be global financial centre, and it is low hanging fruit waiting to be moved. I mean, if it was so easy to move why pay sky high rents in the City when you could rent the whole of Sunderland?
The trouble is the EU actually believes it is easy, so will do everything it can to collectively destroy value.
That was entirely foreseen by remainers however.
Whilst compelling, I just found that a thoroughly depressing reason to vote remain.
Well for a start you wouldn't get any talent wanting to live in Sunderland. Paris, Frankfurt aren't Sunderland though.0 -
TheBigBean wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:TheBigBean wrote:This is perhaps the most frustrating aspect of the whole Brexit debate. The idea that it is easy to be global financial centre, and it is low hanging fruit waiting to be moved. I mean, if it was so easy to move why pay sky high rents in the City when you could rent the whole of Sunderland?
The trouble is the EU actually believes it is easy, so will do everything it can to collectively destroy value.
That was entirely foreseen by remainers however.
Whilst compelling, I just found that a thoroughly depressing reason to vote remain.
0 -
Joelsim wrote:TheBigBean wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:TheBigBean wrote:This is perhaps the most frustrating aspect of the whole Brexit debate. The idea that it is easy to be global financial centre, and it is low hanging fruit waiting to be moved. I mean, if it was so easy to move why pay sky high rents in the City when you could rent the whole of Sunderland?
The trouble is the EU actually believes it is easy, so will do everything it can to collectively destroy value.
That was entirely foreseen by remainers however.
Whilst compelling, I just found that a thoroughly depressing reason to vote remain.
Well for a start you wouldn't get any talent wanting to live in Sunderland. Paris, Frankfurt aren't Sunderland though.
As mentioned above, an earlier attempt to lure traders to Switzerland failed when they all became utterly bored. They were traders that didn't actually need anything in London. Most people working in finance actually need something in London.0 -
Rick Chasey wrote:TheBigBean wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:TheBigBean wrote:This is perhaps the most frustrating aspect of the whole Brexit debate. The idea that it is easy to be global financial centre, and it is low hanging fruit waiting to be moved. I mean, if it was so easy to move why pay sky high rents in the City when you could rent the whole of Sunderland?
The trouble is the EU actually believes it is easy, so will do everything it can to collectively destroy value.
That was entirely foreseen by remainers however.
Whilst compelling, I just found that a thoroughly depressing reason to vote remain.
I blame the Euro. If we hadn't suffered death by a thousand Euro cuts, and a politician had actually admitted that it was a mistake that needed fixing*, we wouldn't be in this mess. Germany and Greece both should have left the Euro, but why do that when you can kick the can half a millimetre down the road.
Oh and while I'm ranting, Germany needs to spend some money or be fined as per Eurozone rules, but it won't spend the money and it won't be fined, because there is no strength in the rules and no commitment.
*Obviously expecting this of a politician is a bit much.0 -
-
i guess the Tories need to be careful here, hard brexit and an economic crisis, higher unemployment and inflation, will mean they ll be blamed and hopefully be out of office for a good few years, remember, they have only 3 & 1/2 years before the next GE.
If on the other hand they back track and go for a soft brexit and a freedom of movement solution , limiting any eco crisis, they ll get the blame for falling to halt immigration..... and be out of office for a good few years...... needs the Labour party to cooperate on these scenarios and i m not sure they can.0 -
Joelsim wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:Joelsim wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:Joelsim wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:Joelsim wrote:Yes, and by the end of year 15 we'll have to made tax increases/service cuts and/or loan repayments potentially to the tune of £66bn + £61.6bn + £57.2bn...£4.4bn just to stand still. That's hundreds of billions of pounds.
correct - but it will change nothing as the Brexit powers that be knew this already. It is the cost worth paying
To me it's like a cyclist cutting his leg off in order to lose weight.
I can't speak for the morons though.
To understand a Brexiteer you must think like Brexiteer. Insulting them achieves nothing. A good question to ask would be "is their a price they would not be willing to pay?"
Yes, thinking like a Brexiteer would be a major problem. It'd require a brain transplant.
seriously you should try and understand their motivations
I know their motivations and fundamentally disagree with them.
Not all of them however. I'm as disgusted as anyone that the country's future is largely being determined by people with such a simple childlike view as disliking foreign accents in their area but that is not to say remain was the default decision. I had discussions with two people, yes as many as that, who could articulate a pretty good argument for leaving. One of them was a software engineer who was no fool and had done careful reading about the political make-up of the EU and decided it wasn't for him. It was possible to dislike being in the EU without moaning about immigration, it's just that those people were in a minority.0 -
mamba80 wrote:i guess the Tories need to be careful here, hard brexit and an economic crisis, higher unemployment and inflation, will mean they ll be blamed and hopefully be out of office for a good few years, remember, they have only 3 & 1/2 years before the next GE.
If on the other hand they back track and go for a soft brexit and a freedom of movement solution , limiting any eco crisis, they ll get the blame for falling to halt immigration..... and be out of office for a good few years...... needs the Labour party to cooperate on these scenarios and i m not sure they can.
What is this free movement solution? It's binary. Hence why they're going for hard as it's the only thing that's achievable.
Anything else is doomed to failure. At least this way they say we are out of everything and if we get anything positive at all, it's a win.0 -
TheBigBean wrote:This is perhaps the most frustrating aspect of the whole Brexit debate. The idea that it is easy to be global financial centre, and it is low hanging fruit waiting to be moved. I mean, if it was so easy to move why pay sky high rents in the City when you could rent the whole of Sunderland?
The trouble is the EU actually believes it is easy, so will do everything it can to collectively destroy value.
But if you were them you would not want to miss the opportunity to try and land yourself some lucrative parts of the pie.0 -
mamba80 wrote:i guess the Tories need to be careful here, hard brexit and an economic crisis, higher unemployment and inflation, will mean they ll be blamed and hopefully be out of office for a good few years, remember, they have only 3 & 1/2 years before the next GE.
If on the other hand they back track and go for a soft brexit and a freedom of movement solution , limiting any eco crisis, they ll get the blame for falling to halt immigration..... and be out of office for a good few years...... needs the Labour party to cooperate on these scenarios and i m not sure they can.
but if they can limit the "economic crisis" to a relative economic decline then they will be able to claim to be the party of economic competence.
Maybe Labour are very very clever and stayed out of the Referendum so that at the next election they can show how all Tories are lying sh1ts0 -
Surrey Commuter wrote:TheBigBean wrote:This is perhaps the most frustrating aspect of the whole Brexit debate. The idea that it is easy to be global financial centre, and it is low hanging fruit waiting to be moved. I mean, if it was so easy to move why pay sky high rents in the City when you could rent the whole of Sunderland?
The trouble is the EU actually believes it is easy, so will do everything it can to collectively destroy value.
But if you were them you would not want to miss the opportunity to try and land yourself some lucrative parts of the pie.
Would I want to shoot myself in the foot whilst salivating? No - I'm a pragmatist.
I would probably have called Cameron's bluff during the negotiations (as they did) because I would have expected him to win and that would have been in my interests.
After leave won, I would have had an emergency meeting and put together a new offer for the UK, so that it could have another vote.0
