BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

rick_chasey

tailwindhome said:

Dmitry Grozoubinski
@DmitryOpines

Who is this FOR?

No. 10 knows what the EU meant with these slides. The EU knows what they meant. It's not complicated.

The campaign is over. Government has a huge majority. There is no opposition.

Why continue debasing the discourse to harvest retweets from UK MAGA-hats?


Each step on the ladder represents a TYPE of EU relationship, not a commitment to copy paste an existing treaty.

EU Membership
EFTA Partial SM
Swiss Piecemeal SM
Ukraine AA
Turkey Partial CU
Free Trade Agreement

Each step required individual, bespoke negotiations. Same as now.


The UK wants more access to the EU market than Canada received, and is a closer and larger trading partner (so more of a potential threat to EU sectors).

Ergo, the EU is seeking more LPF.

By all means tell them to censored off or make a counter offer, but stop... whatever this is.

In answer to this, is this not the central policy of Cummings and why he's even a spad?

That how you're polling always matters and it makes sense to always be on the campaign.

The 'reality' is really rather subordinate to the perception of said reality when it comes to politics; look no further than the most recent election where people were voting for BoJo for something new to happen, despite the tories being in power for 10 years.

The preception was he was materially different.

rjsterry

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

surrey_commuter said:

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

rick_chasey said:

The problem as I see it is the closer the U.K. gets to a “fully divergent from the EU” position, with the associated friction, the smaller the difference between that and failing to agree to any deal.

I’m not convinced this U.K. govt will necessarily fold and increasingly the EU has a priority of not having a competitive neighbour.

Neither helps them get to a mutually beneficial compromise.

Agreed. General consensus seems to be that statements about wanting to diverge should be taken at face value. "Australia style" non-deal here we come.

Clearly the EU are worried about us out-competing them. I wonder why?

With the new immigration policy released this evening, they can probably relax a bit. Not sure how central control of the labour force fits with any plans to out-compete the EU. F*** business indeed.

No different in principle to the controls over non-EU workers coming into the EU. It will be more about how it is worked in practice.

Although clearly there will be other factors that concern the EU.

I think he is looking at it from a UK point of view and querying whether government rather than markets will best allocate resources.

We've already well established Stevo is not in the business of encouraging competition, either in business, politics, or anywhere else.

He's made plenty of 'lump of labour' arguments to argue why it make sense to restrict the labour force, so this position should come as no surprise.

Why bother upping your game when you can vote in governments that protect your weak game?

At least I'm not in the business of talking bollox and misrepresenting the views of others

😂😂😂

coopster_the_1st

Stevo_666 said:

TheBigBean said:

A question for those adamant that unskilled labour from the EU should be allowed - why not the rest of the word as well?

There hasn't been a good answer to that on here that I can recall.

You won't get one from those on here as it will be a positive argument for leaving

rjsterry

TheBigBean said:

For clarity that is United Kingdom Making America Great Again hats? A niche market I would have thought.

I know you're not daft enough to think it's meant literally.

rick_chasey

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

surrey_commuter said:

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

rick_chasey said:

The problem as I see it is the closer the U.K. gets to a “fully divergent from the EU” position, with the associated friction, the smaller the difference between that and failing to agree to any deal.

I’m not convinced this U.K. govt will necessarily fold and increasingly the EU has a priority of not having a competitive neighbour.

Neither helps them get to a mutually beneficial compromise.

Agreed. General consensus seems to be that statements about wanting to diverge should be taken at face value. "Australia style" non-deal here we come.

Clearly the EU are worried about us out-competing them. I wonder why?

With the new immigration policy released this evening, they can probably relax a bit. Not sure how central control of the labour force fits with any plans to out-compete the EU. F*** business indeed.

No different in principle to the controls over non-EU workers coming into the EU. It will be more about how it is worked in practice.

Although clearly there will be other factors that concern the EU.

I think he is looking at it from a UK point of view and querying whether government rather than markets will best allocate resources.

We've already well established Stevo is not in the business of encouraging competition, either in business, politics, or anywhere else.

He's made plenty of 'lump of labour' arguments to argue why it make sense to restrict the labour force, so this position should come as no surprise.

Why bother upping your game when you can vote in governments that protect your weak game?

At least I'm not in the business of talking bollox and misrepresenting the views of others

Oh mate, glass houses, stones etc.

You've often given the lump of labour argument re immigration, you say yourself you joined the labour party to reduce their ability to challenge the tories and you've given multiple instances where you support the kind of policies (like allowing use of tax havens) that favour big business at the expense of small.

tailwindhome

TheBigBean said:

A question for those adamant that unskilled labour from the EU should be allowed - why not the rest of the word as well?

What else have they to offer ?

TheBigBean

tailwindhome said:

TheBigBean said:

A question for those adamant that unskilled labour from the EU should be allowed - why not the rest of the word as well?

What else have they to offer ?

Well, it is a big place out there, but your reply, I think, relies on the idea that free movement of unskilled labour is a cost or undesirable to the UK which is at odds with some people's views (those whom the question was aimed at)

rjsterry

Stevo_666 said:

TheBigBean said:

A question for those adamant that unskilled labour from the EU should be allowed - why not the rest of the word as well?

There hasn't been a good answer to that on here that I can recall.

Are you saying there isn't a demand for low-skilled labour? It's one of the issues with aspiring to be a high wage, high skill economy: who's going to do all the other jobs? I'm more than happy for us to widen the scope of who we allow in to fill those, particularly if there is some reciprocal arrangement. But then I'm not someone who sits around bleating about small overcrowded islands and loss of cultural identity.

TheBigBean

rjsterry said:

TheBigBean said:

For clarity that is United Kingdom Making America Great Again hats? A niche market I would have thought.

I know you're not daft enough to think it's meant literally.

It seemed sufficiently incoherent that it deserved to be taken that way. Plus it had that irritating feeling of someone trying to be very clever and make fun of people they perceive to be stupid whilst, at the time, looking quite stupid themselves.

Why continue debasing the discourse to harvest retweets from UK MAGA-hats?

TheBigBean

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

TheBigBean said:

A question for those adamant that unskilled labour from the EU should be allowed - why not the rest of the word as well?

There hasn't been a good answer to that on here that I can recall.

Are you saying there isn't a demand for low-skilled labour? It's one of the issues with aspiring to be a high wage, high skill economy: who's going to do all the other jobs? I'm more than happy for us to widen the scope of who we allow in to fill those, particularly if there is some reciprocal arrangement. But then I'm not someone who sits around bleating about small overcrowded islands and loss of cultural identity.

Machines plus pay higher wages e.g. a car wash could be an automated one, it doesn't have to be a bunch of minimum wage workers*. Or tractors can be driven by GPS now which cuts farming hours.

*Usual caveat that I know nothing about cars, so happy to accept that the machine wash is inferior or something, but the point stands in general.

rick_chasey

TheBigBean said:

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

TheBigBean said:

A question for those adamant that unskilled labour from the EU should be allowed - why not the rest of the word as well?

There hasn't been a good answer to that on here that I can recall.

Are you saying there isn't a demand for low-skilled labour? It's one of the issues with aspiring to be a high wage, high skill economy: who's going to do all the other jobs? I'm more than happy for us to widen the scope of who we allow in to fill those, particularly if there is some reciprocal arrangement. But then I'm not someone who sits around bleating about small overcrowded islands and loss of cultural identity.

Machines plus pay higher wages e.g. a car wash could be an automated one, it doesn't have to be a bunch of minimum wage workers*. Or tractors can be driven by GPS now which cuts farming hours.

*Usual caveat that I know nothing about cars, so happy to accept that the machine wash is inferior or something, but the point stands in general.

This is absolutely true - sometimes shortages can drive innovation, but usually at a cost to the consumer.

TheBigBean

rick_chasey said:

TheBigBean said:

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

TheBigBean said:

A question for those adamant that unskilled labour from the EU should be allowed - why not the rest of the word as well?

There hasn't been a good answer to that on here that I can recall.

Are you saying there isn't a demand for low-skilled labour? It's one of the issues with aspiring to be a high wage, high skill economy: who's going to do all the other jobs? I'm more than happy for us to widen the scope of who we allow in to fill those, particularly if there is some reciprocal arrangement. But then I'm not someone who sits around bleating about small overcrowded islands and loss of cultural identity.

Machines plus pay higher wages e.g. a car wash could be an automated one, it doesn't have to be a bunch of minimum wage workers*. Or tractors can be driven by GPS now which cuts farming hours.

*Usual caveat that I know nothing about cars, so happy to accept that the machine wash is inferior or something, but the point stands in general.

This is absolutely true - sometimes shortages can drive innovation, but usually at a cost to the consumer.

Of course, but it should increase productivity and improve life for the unskilled workers who are the main losers in a globalised world.

elbowloh

I'm not sure how we're going to replace care-home workers with machines though.

I've done it in my summer holidays when i was a student. It was very low paid and not that pleasant (for me anyway). Most of the people working there were from overseas. I don't think you're going to replace them all with people from the UK and any shortfall will undoubtly have a big impact on the NHS with people either a) having to go into hospital or b) not able to leave hospital as they don't have a care home to go to.

rick_chasey

RJS has already made the point, but why are people happy with centralised planning of immigration?

TheBigBean

rick_chasey said:

RJS has already made the point, but why are people happy with centralised planning of immigration?

With regard to defining what a skilled job is? The old system had more ways to earn points, so you didn't need to tick every box.

rjsterry

TheBigBean said:

rjsterry said:

TheBigBean said:

For clarity that is United Kingdom Making America Great Again hats? A niche market I would have thought.

I know you're not daft enough to think it's meant literally.

It seemed sufficiently incoherent that it deserved to be taken that way. Plus it had that irritating feeling of someone trying to be very clever and make fun of people they perceive to be stupid whilst, at the time, looking quite stupid themselves.

Why continue debasing the discourse to harvest retweets from UK MAGA-hats?

So in turn you pretended to misunderstand?

TheBigBean

rjsterry said:

TheBigBean said:

rjsterry said:

TheBigBean said:

For clarity that is United Kingdom Making America Great Again hats? A niche market I would have thought.

I know you're not daft enough to think it's meant literally.

It seemed sufficiently incoherent that it deserved to be taken that way. Plus it had that irritating feeling of someone trying to be very clever and make fun of people they perceive to be stupid whilst, at the time, looking quite stupid themselves.

Why continue debasing the discourse to harvest retweets from UK MAGA-hats?

So in turn you pretended to misunderstand?

No. I made fun of it which is what I thought it deserved. My apologies if it didn't have you rolling around in laughter - I was probably aiming more for a slight smile, but that was perhaps ambitious given my comedic skills..

Jeremy.89

rick_chasey said:

RJS has already made the point, but why are people happy with centralised planning of immigration?

How else do you suggest reducing it?

rick_chasey

Jeremy.89 said:

rick_chasey said:

RJS has already made the point, but why are people happy with centralised planning of immigration?

How else do you suggest reducing it?

How about....take the hint that if firms are hiring from abroad they probably need to?

In all seriousness, with the UK fertility rate and ageing population, how else is the work force going to support the broader population?

rjsterry

☺ There you go. As it happens, there are UK stockists of MAGA hats and indeed MEGA hats. I feel pretty safe arguing that English Nationalism is stupid.

rick_chasey

I mean, seriously, how do you propose solving the economic and social problems that are caused by an ageing population? Immigration is most simple and efficient way to help, as the vast majority arrive at working age.

I mean, if only the amount of effort put into keeping immigrants out was put into making sure than when they arrive the are successfully integrated into society, everyone would be a lot better off.

If anyone has a genuine alternative solution I am all ears.

tailwindhome

TheBigBean said:

tailwindhome said:

TheBigBean said:

A question for those adamant that unskilled labour from the EU should be allowed - why not the rest of the word as well?

What else have they to offer ?

Well, it is a big place out there, but your reply, I think, relies on the idea that free movement of unskilled labour is a cost or undesirable to the UK which is at odds with some people's views (those whom the question was aimed at)

It's not a question of it necessarily being a cost or undesirable.

FOM with the EU comes with access to a single market of 500 million and we get the FOM to go there.

What does 100,000 visas to random country x come with?

Stevo_666

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

surrey_commuter said:

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

rick_chasey said:

The problem as I see it is the closer the U.K. gets to a “fully divergent from the EU” position, with the associated friction, the smaller the difference between that and failing to agree to any deal.

I’m not convinced this U.K. govt will necessarily fold and increasingly the EU has a priority of not having a competitive neighbour.

Neither helps them get to a mutually beneficial compromise.

Agreed. General consensus seems to be that statements about wanting to diverge should be taken at face value. "Australia style" non-deal here we come.

Clearly the EU are worried about us out-competing them. I wonder why?

With the new immigration policy released this evening, they can probably relax a bit. Not sure how central control of the labour force fits with any plans to out-compete the EU. F*** business indeed.

No different in principle to the controls over non-EU workers coming into the EU. It will be more about how it is worked in practice.

Although clearly there will be other factors that concern the EU.

I think he is looking at it from a UK point of view and querying whether government rather than markets will best allocate resources.

We've already well established Stevo is not in the business of encouraging competition, either in business, politics, or anywhere else.

He's made plenty of 'lump of labour' arguments to argue why it make sense to restrict the labour force, so this position should come as no surprise.

Why bother upping your game when you can vote in governments that protect your weak game?

At least I'm not in the business of talking bollox and misrepresenting the views of others

😂😂😂

I am but an amateur compared to RC

Stevo_666

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

TheBigBean said:

A question for those adamant that unskilled labour from the EU should be allowed - why not the rest of the word as well?

There hasn't been a good answer to that on here that I can recall.

Are you saying there isn't a demand for low-skilled labour? It's one of the issues with aspiring to be a high wage, high skill economy: who's going to do all the other jobs? I'm more than happy for us to widen the scope of who we allow in to fill those, particularly if there is some reciprocal arrangement. But then I'm not someone who sits around bleating about small overcrowded islands and loss of cultural identity.

RTQ - the point on the last page included the question 'why not the rest of the world'?

rjsterry

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

TheBigBean said:

A question for those adamant that unskilled labour from the EU should be allowed - why not the rest of the word as well?

There hasn't been a good answer to that on here that I can recall.

Are you saying there isn't a demand for low-skilled labour? It's one of the issues with aspiring to be a high wage, high skill economy: who's going to do all the other jobs? I'm more than happy for us to widen the scope of who we allow in to fill those, particularly if there is some reciprocal arrangement. But then I'm not someone who sits around bleating about small overcrowded islands and loss of cultural identity.

RTQ - the point on the last page included the question 'why not the rest of the world'?

I did. Quite happy opening it up to the rest of the world if and when reciprocal arrangements are in place. I'd include a basic requirement for some form of employment within a certain amount of time of arrival as we had the opportunity to implement when a member.

More generally, I am unconvinced that fiddling with skills classifications and points systems is any sensible way to address global migration.

Stevo_666

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

The Uk hasn’t agreed to that if you look at the substance. They’re calling it Canada but it ain’t.

What are the main differences?

Rankin thread I posted above gives you an idea.

Not a good one. Can you clarify for us?

Nothing then...

So in reality a Canada deal should still be on the table if the EU were sticking to their word and previous public pronouncements.

tailwindhome

Stevo_666 said:

So in reality a Canada deal should still be on the table if the EU were sticking to their word and previous public pronouncements.

They are.
They even agreed it all in the Political Declaration.

Stevo_666

tailwindhome said:

Stevo_666 said:

So in reality a Canada deal should still be on the table if the EU were sticking to their word and previous public pronouncements.

They are.
They even agreed it all in the Political Declaration.

Link please. It does not square with the EU public pronouncements on the availability of a Canada style deal during the negotiations as issued by Barnier and posted upthread by TBB.

tailwindhome

Stevo_666 said:

tailwindhome said:

Stevo_666 said:

So in reality a Canada deal should still be on the table if the EU were sticking to their word and previous public pronouncements.

They are.
They even agreed it all in the Political Declaration.

Link please. It does not square with the EU public pronouncements on the availability of a Canada style deal during the negotiations as issued by Barnier and posted upthread by TBB.

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/publications/revised-political-declaration_en

Part II Economic Partnership
XIV
Para 77

This really is a stupid argument.

'Canada' is short hand for a free trade agreement.
Now they're negotiating what goes in it.
This will include the plus plus plus stuff.

Jeremy.89

rick_chasey said:

I mean, seriously, how do you propose solving the economic and social problems that are caused by an ageing population? Immigration is most simple and efficient way to help, as the vast majority arrive at working age.

I mean, if only the amount of effort put into keeping immigrants out was put into making sure than when they arrive the are successfully integrated into society, everyone would be a lot better off.

If anyone has a genuine alternative solution I am all ears.

I'd agree with all of that. I'm just saying that if you come from the issue with the belief that immigration isn't especially desirable, then central control seems the easiest way to go.