BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

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  • drhaggis
    drhaggis Posts: 1,150
    What I don't understand, to turn around Stevo's question, is why WTO terms are so great for a future UK-EU relationship, but we must to everything in our hand to get a trade deal with the US ASAP.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,154
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    The original point was which relationship would me more 'vassal-ish' and whose vassal state we would rather be. If indeed that what it entails. Pretty sure the relationship with the EU imposes quite a few compulsory conditions.

    I'm trying to look at it dispassionately where I get the feeling that quite a few of you are letting your dislike of the US and Trump in particular make look for reasons why a US trade deal is bad.

    Any trade deal has to get past both Trump and congress. It can't get past both if it is not both favourable to the USA, to the lobby groups with power over congress, and to whichever donor has spoken to Trump the day before. It's not happening in a hurry.

    He could have done a trade deal with the UK (as part of the EU) by now, the one that was in progress between the USA and the EU when he took over, but he threw that away.
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    The USA will want food as part of a trade deal.
    Food standards is the trickiest part of the Irish Border issue to resolve.
    The Irish lobby in congress won't approve a trade deal if the border is impacted.
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,431
    rjsterry wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    The original point was which relationship would me more 'vassal-ish' and whose vassal state we would rather be. If indeed that what it entails. Pretty sure the relationship with the EU imposes quite a few compulsory conditions.

    I'm trying to look at it dispassionately where I get the feeling that quite a few of you are letting your dislike of the US and Trump in particular make look for reasons why a US trade deal is bad.

    It's a pretty shaky premise on either side of the argument.
    I still think it's behind a lot of the 'reasoning' on here. IMO of course :)
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,431
    DrHaggis wrote:
    What I don't understand, to turn around Stevo's question, is why WTO terms are so great for a future UK-EU relationship, but we must to everything in our hand to get a trade deal with the US ASAP.
    Who said it was?
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,431
    Rolf F wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    I'm trying to look at it dispassionately where I get the feeling that quite a few of you are letting your dislike of the US and Trump in particular make look for reasons why a US trade deal is bad.

    It's a fair question to ask but the bottom line is that America is the bigger economy and holds all the cards. Furthermore, its cards are further strengthened by very lax environmental regulation by European standards. We can't compete with them without the playing field being levelled and I can't see Trump or any other potential US president being prepared to go that far; there's nothing in it for them.

    I just don't see where the benefits are of a trade deal with the US actually are (and neither, apparently, does UK business). It seems to me that we are desperate for this deal not because we want one but because it is an obvious device to justify how Brexit isn't an economic disaster. And those who want the deal probably don't care much about the content either - to them, just achieving that deal will be a success no matter how bad it actually is for the UK (don't forget what the calibre of the people who will be making this deal is).
    They hold all the cards how exactly?

    Pretty sure they want to export more to us and we can negotiate on that.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,431
    TailWindHome wrote:
    The USA will want food as part of a trade deal.
    Food standards is the trickiest part of the Irish Border issue to resolve.
    The Irish lobby in congress won't approve a trade deal if the border is impacted.
    If it's a hard Brexit there may already be a border by time we come to discuss this with the US.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,431
    briantrumpet wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    The original point was which relationship would me more 'vassal-ish' and whose vassal state we would rather be. If indeed that what it entails. Pretty sure the relationship with the EU imposes quite a few compulsory conditions.

    I'm trying to look at it dispassionately where I get the feeling that quite a few of you are letting your dislike of the US and Trump in particular make look for reasons why a US trade deal is bad.
    I think there are justifiable reasons for being wary of any trade deal with a country with the clout and ambition that the US possesses (at any time), and especially when capricious/bonkers Trump seems to make up policy on misguided whims.

    https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-anal ... -a-now-vul
    The EU is about the same size and has the same sort of clout. And leaders come and go. Just sayin'....
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Jez mon
    Jez mon Posts: 3,809
    So we're part of a union of the same sort of clout as the USA you say.

    Sounds like staying in that might be a good idea
    You live and learn. At any rate, you live
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,389
    Jez mon wrote:
    So we're part of a union of the same sort of clout as the USA you say.

    Sounds like staying in that might be a good idea
    Now there's an idea...
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,431
    Jez mon wrote:
    So we're part of a union of the same sort of clout as the USA you say.

    Sounds like staying in that might be a good idea
    Very probably, but that is missing the point here.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • robert88
    robert88 Posts: 2,696
    I think we should miss the point and just do it.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    briantrumpet wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    The original point was which relationship would me more 'vassal-ish' and whose vassal state we would rather be. If indeed that what it entails. Pretty sure the relationship with the EU imposes quite a few compulsory conditions.

    I'm trying to look at it dispassionately where I get the feeling that quite a few of you are letting your dislike of the US and Trump in particular make look for reasons why a US trade deal is bad.
    I think there are justifiable reasons for being wary of any trade deal with a country with the clout and ambition that the US possesses (at any time), and especially when capricious/bonkers Trump seems to make up policy on misguided whims.

    https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-anal ... -a-now-vul
    The EU is about the same size and has the same sort of clout. And leaders come and go. Just sayin'....

    The EU is bigger and, currently, as a member the UK has a say over what happens in it.
    _
  • slowbike
    slowbike Posts: 8,498
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    The EU is about the same size and has the same sort of clout. And leaders come and go. Just sayin'....

    The EU is bigger and, currently, as a member the UK has a say over what happens in it.
    yes - A say, not "THE" say - so US/EU trade deals may be of great benefit to the EU, but arguably not so good for the UK in isolation. Of course, that assumes that in isolation, the UK can get a better trade deal - which we won't know until one is negotiated - which then comes down to the choice - better something we know or something we don't know ... is the grass really greener on the other side?
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Slowbike wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    The EU is about the same size and has the same sort of clout. And leaders come and go. Just sayin'....

    The EU is bigger and, currently, as a member the UK has a say over what happens in it.
    yes - A say, not "THE" say - so US/EU trade deals may be of great benefit to the EU, but arguably not so good for the UK in isolation. Of course, that assumes that in isolation, the UK can get a better trade deal - which we won't know until one is negotiated - which then comes down to the choice - better something we know or something we don't know ... is the grass really greener on the other side?

    It has more of a say than the US states do.... to make the benefit of collective power compromises need to be made.

    I can't see any practical theory which suggests the UK can get a more beneficial deal with the US without the leverage of being part of the EU.

    It just won't work.
    _
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    Emily Thornberry benched by Labour for PMQs
    That'll teach her to clarify her position on Brexit.
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,431
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    briantrumpet wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    The original point was which relationship would me more 'vassal-ish' and whose vassal state we would rather be. If indeed that what it entails. Pretty sure the relationship with the EU imposes quite a few compulsory conditions.

    I'm trying to look at it dispassionately where I get the feeling that quite a few of you are letting your dislike of the US and Trump in particular make look for reasons why a US trade deal is bad.
    I think there are justifiable reasons for being wary of any trade deal with a country with the clout and ambition that the US possesses (at any time), and especially when capricious/bonkers Trump seems to make up policy on misguided whims.

    https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-anal ... -a-now-vul
    The EU is about the same size and has the same sort of clout. And leaders come and go. Just sayin'....

    The EU is bigger and, currently, as a member the UK has a say over what happens in it.
    Depending on how you measure it, the US is larger (and definitely will be post Brexit):
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_European_Union

    As for having a say, well I'm sure we will have a say in the terms of any UK-US trade deal as clearly there is only one other party. Probably more of a say than in any existing or future trade deal with 27 other nations.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • slowbike
    slowbike Posts: 8,498
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    It has more of a say than the US states do.... to make the benefit of collective power compromises need to be made.
    Sir sir, it's not fair ....
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    I can't see any practical theory which suggests the UK can get a more beneficial deal with the US without the leverage of being part of the EU.
    Well (fortunately) neither you or I are involved in the negotiation of any trade deals - either in or out of the EU ...
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    It just won't work.
    ...in your opinion ... rather obviously - some other people disagree with you - but there you go - that's one of the benefits of democracy - not everyone has to agree ... ;)
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,431
    Slowbike wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    It has more of a say than the US states do.... to make the benefit of collective power compromises need to be made.
    Sir sir, it's not fair ....
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    I can't see any practical theory which suggests the UK can get a more beneficial deal with the US without the leverage of being part of the EU.
    Well (fortunately) neither you or I are involved in the negotiation of any trade deals - either in or out of the EU ...
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    It just won't work.
    ...in your opinion ... rather obviously - some other people disagree with you - but there you go - that's one of the benefits of democracy - not everyone has to agree ... ;)
    Some people don't want it to work, but that's another story.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Why don't one of you explain how you arrive at a realistic net-positive outcome then? The ability to submit to the US demands more easily doesn't count, before you trot that one out.

    UK is roughly what, 2, 2.5% of global GDP?

    The US is what, 25%?

    EU is what, 22%?
    _
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,577
    TailWindHome wrote:
    Emily Thornberry benched by Labour for PMQs
    That'll teach her to clarify her position on Brexit.
    It just keeps getting reinforced that Corbyn is a sort of mirror image of Trump, so seduced by the idea that disruption creates opportunities (for personal glory/establishing a socialist utopia*), that disruption has become an end in itself.

    *delete as applicable.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • slowbike
    slowbike Posts: 8,498
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Why don't one of you explain how you arrive at a realistic net-positive outcome then? The ability to submit to the US demands more easily doesn't count, before you trot that one out.

    UK is roughly what, 2, 2.5% of global GDP?

    The US is what, 25%?

    EU is what, 22%?

    I don't need to - I think we should stay in the EU - but that doesn't mean that I think all the leavers reasons are wrong - I just don't agree with the overall stance of leaving. Like all democracy - it's compromise....
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,154
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Why don't one of you explain how you arrive at a realistic net-positive outcome then? The ability to submit to the US demands more easily doesn't count, before you trot that one out.

    UK is roughly what, 2, 2.5% of global GDP?

    The US is what, 25%?

    EU is what, 22%?

    Rick, if you just want it hard enough, it will all be OK.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Slowbike wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Why don't one of you explain how you arrive at a realistic net-positive outcome then? The ability to submit to the US demands more easily doesn't count, before you trot that one out.

    UK is roughly what, 2, 2.5% of global GDP?

    The US is what, 25%?

    EU is what, 22%?

    I don't need to - I think we should stay in the EU - but that doesn't mean that I think all the leavers reasons are wrong - I just don't agree with the overall stance of leaving. Like all democracy - it's compromise....

    This reply makes no sense. Compromise on what?
    _
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,154
    Trump pissed on TTIP because he saw it as being unfair to the USA.
  • slowbike
    slowbike Posts: 8,498
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Slowbike wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Why don't one of you explain how you arrive at a realistic net-positive outcome then? The ability to submit to the US demands more easily doesn't count, before you trot that one out.

    UK is roughly what, 2, 2.5% of global GDP?

    The US is what, 25%?

    EU is what, 22%?

    I don't need to - I think we should stay in the EU - but that doesn't mean that I think all the leavers reasons are wrong - I just don't agree with the overall stance of leaving. Like all democracy - it's compromise....

    This reply makes no sense. Compromise on what?
    Staying in the EU vs Leaving the EU - it's all compromise - somethings will be better in, somethings better out - the compromise is rather obvious isn't it?
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    edited June 2019
    Slowbike wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Slowbike wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Why don't one of you explain how you arrive at a realistic net-positive outcome then? The ability to submit to the US demands more easily doesn't count, before you trot that one out.

    UK is roughly what, 2, 2.5% of global GDP?

    The US is what, 25%?

    EU is what, 22%?

    I don't need to - I think we should stay in the EU - but that doesn't mean that I think all the leavers reasons are wrong - I just don't agree with the overall stance of leaving. Like all democracy - it's compromise....

    This reply makes no sense. Compromise on what?
    Staying in the EU vs Leaving the EU - it's all compromise - somethings will be better in, somethings better out - the compromise is rather obvious isn't it?

    That's not what I'm discussing. This should be fairly clear.

    I've made a statement that I can't see any realistic situation whereby the UK's negotiating position with any major power is net-positive following Brexit, and you've said that this is only one 'opinion' - well offer me a convincing alternative opinion. As far as I'm concerned, it's fairly factual unless someone can convince or prove otherwise. It's logical and sensible. I don't need to know I'm going to end up really hurt if I step out in front of a car travelling 40mph, regardless of what anyone else says, nor do I need to do it before I can categorically say that that is the case.

    I'm saying, to continue the analogy, that I will be hurt by being hit by the car, and you're saying "ah, but you don't know exactly *how* you'll be hurt, so you don't know".
    _
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,431
    Slowbike wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Why don't one of you explain how you arrive at a realistic net-positive outcome then? The ability to submit to the US demands more easily doesn't count, before you trot that one out.

    UK is roughly what, 2, 2.5% of global GDP?

    The US is what, 25%?

    EU is what, 22%?

    I don't need to - I think we should stay in the EU - but that doesn't mean that I think all the leavers reasons are wrong - I just don't agree with the overall stance of leaving. Like all democracy - it's compromise....
    Me neither. Although Rick knows fine well that asking for a reasonably accurate forecast of the outcome of complex trade negotiations to which we will not be party is in reality not possible.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • bianchimoon
    bianchimoon Posts: 3,942
    It's all academic, there will be no trump US/Uk trade deal, he will be gone in 18 months at the most. All the figures showing how close the EU and US are in economic terms explain the reason Trump/Bannon et al wants us to break the EU... America first, America only
    All lies and jest..still a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest....
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,154
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Slowbike wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Why don't one of you explain how you arrive at a realistic net-positive outcome then? The ability to submit to the US demands more easily doesn't count, before you trot that one out.

    UK is roughly what, 2, 2.5% of global GDP?

    The US is what, 25%?

    EU is what, 22%?

    I don't need to - I think we should stay in the EU - but that doesn't mean that I think all the leavers reasons are wrong - I just don't agree with the overall stance of leaving. Like all democracy - it's compromise....
    Me neither. Although Rick knows fine well that asking for a reasonably accurate forecast of the outcome of complex trade negotiations to which we will not be party is in reality not possible.

    That wasn't the question.

    Rick said: "I can't see any practical theory which suggests the UK can get a more beneficial deal with the US without the leverage of being part of the EU." You seem to be arguing "well, I guess we'll just never know until we see what happens".

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