BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

TheBigBean

Robert88 wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

Robert88 wrote:

Robert88 wrote:

By my rough estimation*, it means (taking only the net figure) that as soon as we stop paying the contribution the NHS budget can be increased from £125bn to £134bn.

Under the Johnston bus so to speak, it would be increased to £143bn.

Whatever is decided in court, reality will almost certainly prove that neither increase will be made and Johnston was deceiving the electorate.




* me? I am no expert, how dare you..

That didn't take long..

US Ambassador to the UK Woody Johnson tells #Marr that the whole of the economy, including the #NHS, will be “on the table” in a future US-UK trade deal after Brexit

Not exactly what he said.

You don't get off that easy pal. You are in the frame for when it goes tits up and that's the end of it.

I'm responsible for someone on twitter misquoting the US ambassador? If I had sufficient power to control twitter I would probably turn it off.

Stevo_666

Stevo 666 wrote:

Robert88 wrote:

The UK has blown its chances.

We are perfectly poised to become a vassal state in the US sphere of influence. The alternative does not exist for. Brexit Britain.

Looking at the definition, it would appear that the main argument here is whose vassal we want to be. And one may be more vassal-ish than the other

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vassal_state

As already mentioned last month

rick_chasey

Stevo 666 wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Robert88 wrote:

The UK has blown its chances.

We are perfectly poised to become a vassal state in the US sphere of influence. The alternative does not exist for. Brexit Britain.

Looking at the definition, it would appear that the main argument here is whose vassal we want to be. And one may be more vassal-ish than the other

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vassal_state

As already mentioned last month

You not a fan of nations being vassal states?

surrey_commuter

So Trump thinks we should leave with no deal. And Farage should lead the negotiations.

What do people how advocate no deal actually think it means

orraloon

Trump is a piece of sh!t. Farridge is a piece of sh!t. No deal = sh!t squared.

[If it were cubed now... who could fill in the piece of the sandwich?]

tailwindhome

Chaos in graph form

rjsterry

Surrey Commuter wrote:

So Trump thinks we should leave with no deal. And Farage should lead the negotiations.

What do people how advocate no deal actually think it means

Agreeing all the bits they want; not agreeing the bits they don't want. They are still living in Cakeland.

Stevo_666

Rick Chasey wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Robert88 wrote:

The UK has blown its chances.

We are perfectly poised to become a vassal state in the US sphere of influence. The alternative does not exist for. Brexit Britain.

Looking at the definition, it would appear that the main argument here is whose vassal we want to be. And one may be more vassal-ish than the other

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vassal_state

As already mentioned last month

You not a fan of nations being vassal states?

Missing the point.

pinno

TailWindHome wrote:

Key:
Roglic: Yellow
Nibali: Orange
Viviani: Blue
Yates: Purple
Ackermann: Red
Le Gac: Dark Green

rick_chasey

Stevo 666 wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Robert88 wrote:

The UK has blown its chances.

We are perfectly poised to become a vassal state in the US sphere of influence. The alternative does not exist for. Brexit Britain.

Looking at the definition, it would appear that the main argument here is whose vassal we want to be. And one may be more vassal-ish than the other

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vassal_state

As already mentioned last month

You not a fan of nations being vassal states?

Missing the point.

Just curious.

rolf_f

I wonder how long it will take us to get used to the idea of the dollar as our currency........

john80

Maybe given May is on her way out she should point out a few truths to the Trump. Why would any government allow a basic EU member of parliament (Farage) to determine the governments position. She will hopefully point out that he should go and get a majority in the house of commons if he wants a place at the negotiating table as this is how the world works.

coopster_the_1st

TailWindHome wrote:

Chaos in graph form

Let's hope every MP sees that graph as they have caused the democratic deficit that the Brexit Party are moving into.

surrey_commuter

Coopster the 1st wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Chaos in graph form

Let's hope every MP sees that graph as they have caused the democratic deficit that the Brexit Party are moving into.

I would be very surprised if Mark Francois and co see themselves as causing a democratic deficit.

imposter2.0

This is what happens when you 'take back control'...

Stevo_666

Rolf F wrote:

I wonder how long it will take us to get used to the idea of the dollar as our currency........

How likely do you think that really is Rolf?

Whereas we came fairly close to adopting the Euro as our currency during the Blair era.

rolf_f

Stevo 666 wrote:

Rolf F wrote:

I wonder how long it will take us to get used to the idea of the dollar as our currency........

How likely do you think that really is Rolf?

Whereas we came fairly close to adopting the Euro as our currency during the Blair era.

No idea. But things (eg Brexit) have a habit of starting out seeming impossibly unlikely and before you know it people are telling you that that is what everyone wants.

The point really is that there is a certain mindset that regards a US-UK trade deal as somehow a great benefit of leaving the EU and that it doesn't actually matter what the content of that deal is. And we have no cards in the negotiating (Trump has already shown that he thinks that we are easily outmanouvered in negotiation) so any deal with the US will be terrible for us - so I'd say that it is more likely that we end up with the dollar as our currency than getting a trade deal with the US that is good for us.

robert88

Stevo 666 wrote:

Rolf F wrote:

I wonder how long it will take us to get used to the idea of the dollar as our currency........

How likely do you think that really is Rolf?

Whereas we came fairly close to adopting the Euro as our currency during the Blair era.

I am no fan of Blair but it would appear that he never came close because of the 'five tests' that in effect made it practically impossible. It's much more economically feasible that the UK might adopt the usd.

Stevo_666

Robert88 wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Rolf F wrote:

I wonder how long it will take us to get used to the idea of the dollar as our currency........

How likely do you think that really is Rolf?

Whereas we came fairly close to adopting the Euro as our currency during the Blair era.

I am no fan of Blair but it would appear that he never came close because of the 'five tests' that in effect made it practically impossible. It's much more economically feasible that the UK might adopt the usd.

Highly unlikely we would ever adopt the USD if as you say, we never got near on the Euro.

That said, Blair was gunning for it, it appeared to be mainly Gordon Browns resistance that stopped us going in. Credit to GB where credit is due.

Stevo_666

Rolf F wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Rolf F wrote:

I wonder how long it will take us to get used to the idea of the dollar as our currency........

How likely do you think that really is Rolf?

Whereas we came fairly close to adopting the Euro as our currency during the Blair era.

No idea. But things (eg Brexit) have a habit of starting out seeming impossibly unlikely and before you know it people are telling you that that is what everyone wants.

The point really is that there is a certain mindset that regards a US-UK trade deal as somehow a great benefit of leaving the EU and that it doesn't actually matter what the content of that deal is. And we have no cards in the negotiating (Trump has already shown that he thinks that we are easily outmanouvered in negotiation) so any deal with the US will be terrible for us - so I'd say that it is more likely that we end up with the dollar as our currency than getting a trade deal with the US that is good for us.

It's not a realistic prospect Ralph.

The point has been debated before, but it's still amusing how people just know that closer trading relations with the US can only be bad while in the same breath stating (probably correctly) that less close trading relations with the EU can only be a bad thing.

darkhairedlord

Stevo 666 wrote:

Rolf F wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Rolf F wrote:

I wonder how long it will take us to get used to the idea of the dollar as our currency........

How likely do you think that really is Rolf?

Whereas we came fairly close to adopting the Euro as our currency during the Blair era.

No idea. But things (eg Brexit) have a habit of starting out seeming impossibly unlikely and before you know it people are telling you that that is what everyone wants.

The point really is that there is a certain mindset that regards a US-UK trade deal as somehow a great benefit of leaving the EU and that it doesn't actually matter what the content of that deal is. And we have no cards in the negotiating (Trump has already shown that he thinks that we are easily outmanouvered in negotiation) so any deal with the US will be terrible for us - so I'd say that it is more likely that we end up with the dollar as our currency than getting a trade deal with the US that is good for us.

It's not a realistic prospect Ralph.

The point has been debated before, but it's still amusing how people just know that closer trading relations with the US can only be bad while in the same breath stating (probably correctly) that less close trading relations with the EU can only be a bad thing.

I agree up to a point, however, is a Trade deal negotiated with the US from a position of weakness (outside the EU with desperation written all over us) ever going to be better than one from a position of strength (inside the EU or CU or SM or whatever)?

Stevo_666

darkhairedlord wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Rolf F wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Rolf F wrote:

I wonder how long it will take us to get used to the idea of the dollar as our currency........

How likely do you think that really is Rolf?

Whereas we came fairly close to adopting the Euro as our currency during the Blair era.

No idea. But things (eg Brexit) have a habit of starting out seeming impossibly unlikely and before you know it people are telling you that that is what everyone wants.

The point really is that there is a certain mindset that regards a US-UK trade deal as somehow a great benefit of leaving the EU and that it doesn't actually matter what the content of that deal is. And we have no cards in the negotiating (Trump has already shown that he thinks that we are easily outmanouvered in negotiation) so any deal with the US will be terrible for us - so I'd say that it is more likely that we end up with the dollar as our currency than getting a trade deal with the US that is good for us.

It's not a realistic prospect Ralph.

The point has been debated before, but it's still amusing how people just know that closer trading relations with the US can only be bad while in the same breath stating (probably correctly) that less close trading relations with the EU can only be a bad thing.

I agree up to a point, however, is a Trade deal negotiated with the US from a position of weakness (outside the EU with desperation written all over us) ever going to be better than one from a position of strength (inside the EU or CU or SM or whatever)?

As to whether we are desperate, who knows. These things are pretty complex and take time however (even when when the EU is not involved) and desperation implies urgent. Which it probably isn't as we already export more to the US team to any other country.

rick_chasey

Stevo 666 wrote:

darkhairedlord wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Rolf F wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Rolf F wrote:

I wonder how long it will take us to get used to the idea of the dollar as our currency........

How likely do you think that really is Rolf?

Whereas we came fairly close to adopting the Euro as our currency during the Blair era.

No idea. But things (eg Brexit) have a habit of starting out seeming impossibly unlikely and before you know it people are telling you that that is what everyone wants.

The point really is that there is a certain mindset that regards a US-UK trade deal as somehow a great benefit of leaving the EU and that it doesn't actually matter what the content of that deal is. And we have no cards in the negotiating (Trump has already shown that he thinks that we are easily outmanouvered in negotiation) so any deal with the US will be terrible for us - so I'd say that it is more likely that we end up with the dollar as our currency than getting a trade deal with the US that is good for us.

It's not a realistic prospect Ralph.

The point has been debated before, but it's still amusing how people just know that closer trading relations with the US can only be bad while in the same breath stating (probably correctly) that less close trading relations with the EU can only be a bad thing.

I agree up to a point, however, is a Trade deal negotiated with the US from a position of weakness (outside the EU with desperation written all over us) ever going to be better than one from a position of strength (inside the EU or CU or SM or whatever)?

As to whether we are desperate, who knows. These things are pretty complex and take time however (even when when the EU is not involved) and desperation implies urgent. Which it probably isn't as we already export more to the US team to any other country.

Explain in what scenario the UK is not in a net-weakened negotiating position in the immediate time after Brexit?

I will put one pre-counter argument on the table - being more able to submit to the US' regulations is not a demonstration of negotiating strength. Au contraire.

rolf_f

Stevo 666 wrote:

Rolf F wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Rolf F wrote:

I wonder how long it will take us to get used to the idea of the dollar as our currency........

How likely do you think that really is Rolf?

Whereas we came fairly close to adopting the Euro as our currency during the Blair era.

No idea. But things (eg Brexit) have a habit of starting out seeming impossibly unlikely and before you know it people are telling you that that is what everyone wants.

The point really is that there is a certain mindset that regards a US-UK trade deal as somehow a great benefit of leaving the EU and that it doesn't actually matter what the content of that deal is. And we have no cards in the negotiating (Trump has already shown that he thinks that we are easily outmanouvered in negotiation) so any deal with the US will be terrible for us - so I'd say that it is more likely that we end up with the dollar as our currency than getting a trade deal with the US that is good for us.

It's not a realistic prospect Ralph.

The point has been debated before, but it's still amusing how people just know that closer trading relations with the US can only be bad while in the same breath stating (probably correctly) that less close trading relations with the EU can only be a bad thing.

Stepho - arguably just as amusing how people think that the Greatness of Britain is all it takes to negotiate an advantageous deal with a much more powerful economy. We've spent the last two years effectively demonstrating that our negotiating technique involves doing nothing until the last minute and then knocking something up that even we can't agree with amongst ourselves.

All things being equal we'd struggle but given how woefully inept we are and how desperate we will no doubt be to demonstrate that we don't need Europe I think it is unrealistically optimistic to assume that a UK - US trade deal will be anything other than another grand scale clusterfuck for the UK. I find your optimism quite endearing but somewhat misguided!

pinno

Stevo 666 wrote:

These things are pretty complex and take time...

Therein lies the rub.

Stevo 666 wrote:

Which it probably isn't as we already export more to the US team to any other country.

Well, that may be but: The most recent stats I can find (2017) is that 44% of our exports go to EU countries and 13% to the US.
The US is not going to be importing an extra say 20% more British products out of sympathy. We would have to define exactly what markets would improve by having a better trade deal and what effect that would have on our economy.

Now I know you're playing Devil's Advocate (and some people bite all to easily) but you cannot possibly argue that a favourable US deal is going to make up for the percentage lost in not being part of the Customs Union.
At this point, lets chuck in WTO deals globally to generate the rest of lost trade... Err, in 7 years time? Perhaps 5 at the earliest.

IF a favourable US trade deal emerged that wasn't heavily weighted in favour of the US (because we would be in a weakened negotiating position and make no mistake about that) and then IF we manage to secure favourable WTO deals some time down the line; would we be in a better position than we are now? Can you honestly predict export opportunities now? Can you honestly say that the future is not going to be one of uncertainty for some considerable amount of time? I think that the latter is the only certainty and businesses during this period will leave as they are leaving now.

kajjal

Pinno wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

These things are pretty complex and take time...

Therein lies the rub.

Stevo 666 wrote:

Which it probably isn't as we already export more to the US team to any other country.

Well, that may be but: The most recent stats I can find (2017) is that 44% of our exports go to EU countries and 13% to the US.
The US is not going to be importing an extra say 20% more British products out of sympathy. We would have to define exactly what markets would improve by having a better trade deal and what effect that would have on our economy.

Now I know you're playing Devil's Advocate (and some people bite all to easily) but you cannot possibly argue that a favourable US deal is going to make up for the percentage lost in not being part of the Customs Union.
At this point, lets chuck in WTO deals globally to generate the rest of lost trade... Err, in 7 years time? Perhaps 5 at the earliest.

IF a favourable US trade deal emerged that wasn't heavily weighted in favour of the US (because we would be in a weakened negotiating position and make no mistake about that) and then IF we manage to secure favourable WTO deals some time down the line; would we be in a better position than we are now? Can you honestly predict export opportunities now? Can you honestly say that the future is not going to be one of uncertainty for some considerable amount of time? I think that the latter is the only certainty and businesses during this period will leave as they are leaving now.

And you also need to include the trade deals the EU gives outside the EU.

Stevo_666

The original point was which relationship would me more 'vassal-ish' and whose vassal state we would rather be. If indeed that what it entails. Pretty sure the relationship with the EU imposes quite a few compulsory conditions.

I'm trying to look at it dispassionately where I get the feeling that quite a few of you are letting your dislike of the US and Trump in particular make look for reasons why a US trade deal is bad.

rjsterry

Stevo 666 wrote:

The original point was which relationship would me more 'vassal-ish' and whose vassal state we would rather be. If indeed that what it entails. Pretty sure the relationship with the EU imposes quite a few compulsory conditions.

I'm trying to look at it dispassionately where I get the feeling that quite a few of you are letting your dislike of the US and Trump in particular make look for reasons why a US trade deal is bad.

It's a pretty shaky premise on either side of the argument.

briantrumpet

Stevo 666 wrote:

The original point was which relationship would me more 'vassal-ish' and whose vassal state we would rather be. If indeed that what it entails. Pretty sure the relationship with the EU imposes quite a few compulsory conditions.

I'm trying to look at it dispassionately where I get the feeling that quite a few of you are letting your dislike of the US and Trump in particular make look for reasons why a US trade deal is bad.

I think there are justifiable reasons for being wary of any trade deal with a country with the clout and ambition that the US possesses (at any time), and especially when capricious/bonkers Trump seems to make up policy on misguided whims.

https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-anal ... -a-now-vul

rolf_f

Stevo 666 wrote:

I'm trying to look at it dispassionately where I get the feeling that quite a few of you are letting your dislike of the US and Trump in particular make look for reasons why a US trade deal is bad.

It's a fair question to ask but the bottom line is that America is the bigger economy and holds all the cards. Furthermore, its cards are further strengthened by very lax environmental regulation by European standards. We can't compete with them without the playing field being levelled and I can't see Trump or any other potential US president being prepared to go that far; there's nothing in it for them.

I just don't see where the benefits are of a trade deal with the US actually are (and neither, apparently, does UK business). It seems to me that we are desperate for this deal not because we want one but because it is an obvious device to justify how Brexit isn't an economic disaster. And those who want the deal probably don't care much about the content either - to them, just achieving that deal will be a success no matter how bad it actually is for the UK (don't forget what the calibre of the people who will be making this deal is).