BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

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  • coopster_the_1st
    coopster_the_1st Posts: 5,158
    finchy wrote:
    Coopster the 1st wrote:
    Business reality - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36771595
    German industrial giant Siemens has said it will continue to invest in the UK, despite earlier warnings that a vote to leave the EU could affect its future activities in the country.

    They lied to us that they would abandon ship :roll:

    Now why would they do that?

    Try reading past the headlines.
    The company has insisted this investment will continue and will be used to meet local demand, but Mr Kaeser said new trade barriers could make it uneconomical to export the blades to Denmark and Germany.

    Their cost of production in the UK is now x% lower than it was pre referendum and that x% is more than any worse case WTO tariff that the EU may impose. And they will be imposing this on their own businesses :? :roll:

    The reality of the situation in not playing out in the way project fear said it would and this is within 3 weeks of the vote. How much more will unwind in the next 3 months and 3 years? :D
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    Coopster the 1st wrote:
    finchy wrote:
    Coopster the 1st wrote:
    Business reality - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36771595
    German industrial giant Siemens has said it will continue to invest in the UK, despite earlier warnings that a vote to leave the EU could affect its future activities in the country.

    They lied to us that they would abandon ship :roll:

    Now why would they do that?

    Try reading past the headlines.
    The company has insisted this investment will continue and will be used to meet local demand, but Mr Kaeser said new trade barriers could make it uneconomical to export the blades to Denmark and Germany.

    Their cost of production in the UK is now x% lower than it was pre referendum and that x% is more than any worse case WTO tariff that the EU may impose. And they will be imposing this on their own businesses :? :roll:

    The reality of the situation in not playing out in the way project fear said it would and this is within 3 weeks of the vote. How much more will unwind in the next 3 months and 3 years? :D

    I admire your optimism but that quote is actually bad news.

    Your childlike repetition of "project fear" does not make it sound any less ignorant.

    By all accounts it is playing out far worse than the experts forecast - but they got the direction of travel correct.
  • finchy
    finchy Posts: 6,686
    Coopster the 1st wrote:
    finchy wrote:
    Coopster the 1st wrote:
    Business reality - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36771595
    German industrial giant Siemens has said it will continue to invest in the UK, despite earlier warnings that a vote to leave the EU could affect its future activities in the country.

    They lied to us that they would abandon ship :roll:

    Now why would they do that?

    Try reading past the headlines.
    The company has insisted this investment will continue and will be used to meet local demand, but Mr Kaeser said new trade barriers could make it uneconomical to export the blades to Denmark and Germany.

    Their cost of production in the UK is now x% lower than it was pre referendum and that x% is more than any worse case WTO tariff that the EU may impose. And they will be imposing this on their own businesses :? :roll:

    The reality of the situation in not playing out in the way project fear said it would and this is within 3 weeks of the vote. How much more will unwind in the next 3 months and 3 years? :D

    If you're a manufacturer, then any goods you make will rely not only on local prices, but also global prices, for example metal or oil prices. Seeing as the £ has fallen so sharply since Brexit, the costs of importing have increased. So just saying "look, the £ is weaker now, good news for exporters" doesn't work out. Siemens had previously said that it would remain in Britain, but it might not invest in goods for exports. And what is happening now? Yes, they are remaining in Britain and suspending investment in exports.
  • coopster_the_1st
    coopster_the_1st Posts: 5,158
    finchy wrote:
    Siemens had previously said that it would remain in Britain, but it might not invest in goods for exports. And what is happening now? Yes, they are remaining in Britain and suspending investment in exports.

    It is the change in tone of the message they are now putting out that is most important. Prior to the vote it was playing on the fear they would move away, stop investment, etc.

    Now the message is "The UK is still a good place to do business" and this is likely to be because the UK is its second largest European market and the reality of profit is what really matters. This has taken less than 3 weeks!

    This tone will be replicated in many EU based companies and thus onto the leaders of the EU countries. Eventually the EU tone will move from punishment to cooperation when reality takes over.
  • haydenm
    haydenm Posts: 2,997
    The flesh of what they are saying is the same, the dressing has changed as they obviously thought it would be bad for their business if we left.

    It potentially means that people in primary production (ie me) can compete against imports more effectively. Unfortunately we are dragging the euro (and SEK) down with us to some extent which hasn't created a big enough currency gap to make much of a difference to us yet. The real impact now might be a severe drop in demand (linked to construction among other things). Another very real impact is the lack of new investment, we wont lose existing funds but we could easily have been employing new people within the next year if all had gone to plan.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    HaydenM wrote:
    The flesh of what they are saying is the same, the dressing has changed as they obviously thought it would be bad for their business if we left.

    It potentially means that people in primary production (ie me) can compete against imports more effectively. Unfortunately we are dragging the euro (and SEK) down with us to some extent which hasn't created a big enough currency gap to make much of a difference to us yet. The real impact now might be a severe drop in demand (linked to construction among other things). Another very real impact is the lack of new investment, we wont lose existing funds but we could easily have been employing new people within the next year if all had gone to plan.

    I agree - those articles are nearly identical - many parts have obviously been cut and pasted. About the only thing that has changed is the tone of the headline.
  • veronese68
    veronese68 Posts: 27,817
    Coopster the 1st wrote:
    finchy wrote:
    Siemens had previously said that it would remain in Britain, but it might not invest in goods for exports. And what is happening now? Yes, they are remaining in Britain and suspending investment in exports.

    It is the change in tone of the message they are now putting out that is most important. Prior to the vote it was playing on the fear they would move away, stop investment, etc.

    Now the message is "The UK is still a good place to do business" and this is likely to be because the UK is its second largest European market and the reality of profit is what really matters. This has taken less than 3 weeks!
    Of course the reality of profit is what matters, what do you think they are in business for?
    Before the vote they say it's a bad thing because they think it will be bad for their business. They don't give a damn about anything else. Now it's happening they are trying to make the most of it. They still want the business as they still want the profit. It's really quite simple to see the motivation behind both messages, the message hasn't changed they've just dressed up the bad news to make it sound more optimistic.
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  • Jez mon
    Jez mon Posts: 3,809
    The news doesn't even sound that positive to me...

    "The company has insisted this investment will continue and will be used to meet local demand, but Mr Kaeser said new trade barriers could make it uneconomical to export the blades to Denmark and Germany."

    So from a business pov they are exactly where they were, except they're facing the possibility of it being uneconomical to export...

    It's looking like the only way we'll get away without trade barriers is if we accept all those pesky EU requirements that the leavers are so against.
    You live and learn. At any rate, you live
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    Jez mon wrote:
    The news doesn't even sound that positive to me...

    "The company has insisted this investment will continue and will be used to meet local demand, but Mr Kaeser said new trade barriers could make it uneconomical to export the blades to Denmark and Germany."

    So from a business pov they are exactly where they were, except they're facing the possibility of it being uneconomical to export...

    It's looking like the only way we'll get away without trade barriers is if we accept all those pesky EU requirements that the leavers are so against.

    You are right it is not positive. Interesting that this is as positive as it gets and people want straws to clutch to.
  • Ben6899
    Ben6899 Posts: 9,686
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Coopster the 1st wrote:
    Back on topic...
    Theresa May wrote:
    "Brexit means Brexit and we're going to make a success of it," adding that there would be "no attempt to rejoin [the EU] by the back door".

    Anyone still in denial that we will leave after this quote from our incoming PM?

    Fairly sure we had an argument where you insisted the referendum was only about securing another one with a better negotiating position. I was fairly insistent an out vote meant out.

    Now you're gloating that the result of the 1st one will be enacted?

    He's a dickhead, Rick. Don't waste your breath.
    Ben

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  • coopster_the_1st
    coopster_the_1st Posts: 5,158
    Ben6899 wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Coopster the 1st wrote:
    Back on topic...
    Theresa May wrote:
    "Brexit means Brexit and we're going to make a success of it," adding that there would be "no attempt to rejoin [the EU] by the back door".

    Anyone still in denial that we will leave after this quote from our incoming PM?

    Fairly sure we had an argument where you insisted the referendum was only about securing another one with a better negotiating position. I was fairly insistent an out vote meant out.

    Now you're gloating that the result of the 1st one will be enacted?

    He's a dickhead, Rick. Don't waste your breath.

    Back again so soon :roll: How was school today? Did they let you play in the sandpit?
  • Ben6899
    Ben6899 Posts: 9,686
    Coopster the 1st wrote:
    Ben6899 wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Coopster the 1st wrote:
    Back on topic...
    Theresa May wrote:
    "Brexit means Brexit and we're going to make a success of it," adding that there would be "no attempt to rejoin [the EU] by the back door".

    Anyone still in denial that we will leave after this quote from our incoming PM?

    Fairly sure we had an argument where you insisted the referendum was only about securing another one with a better negotiating position. I was fairly insistent an out vote meant out.

    Now you're gloating that the result of the 1st one will be enacted?

    He's a dickhead, Rick. Don't waste your breath.

    Back again so soon :roll: How was school today? Did they let you play in the sandpit?

    You're childish ("Remoaners", "Project Fear", "how was school?" etc) and you also don't seem to be able to comprehend what newspaper articles are actually saying.

    I am not the only one here that thinks this.
    Ben

    Bikes: Donhou DSS4 Custom | Condor Italia RC | Gios Megalite | Dolan Preffisio | Giant Bowery '76
    Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ben_h_ppcc/
    Flickr: https://www.flickr.com/photos/143173475@N05/
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/s/?vie ... &safe=1&zw

    Tories warning Brexit could take six years!!!!!

    The commenters seem to miss the irony of hiring foreigners to do trade negotiations
  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,312
    Ben6899 wrote:

    You're childish ("Remoaners", "Project Fear", "how was school?" etc) and you also don't seem to be able to comprehend what newspaper articles are actually saying.

    I am not the only one here that thinks this.

    +1
    left the forum March 2023
  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,312
    edited July 2016
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/s/?view=att&th=1498b04984d41e1a&attid=0.1&disp=attd&realattid=f_i27qjuuh0&safe=1&zw

    Tories warning Brexit could take six years!!!!!

    The commenters seem to miss the irony of hiring foreigners to do trade negotiations

    That would be good... realistically I need 3-4 years to get my act together and make a meaningful move abroad, as I just "restarted" my career last year
    left the forum March 2023
  • finchy
    finchy Posts: 6,686
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    Jez mon wrote:
    The news doesn't even sound that positive to me...

    "The company has insisted this investment will continue and will be used to meet local demand, but Mr Kaeser said new trade barriers could make it uneconomical to export the blades to Denmark and Germany."

    So from a business pov they are exactly where they were, except they're facing the possibility of it being uneconomical to export...

    It's looking like the only way we'll get away without trade barriers is if we accept all those pesky EU requirements that the leavers are so against.

    You are right it is not positive. Interesting that this is as positive as it gets and people want straws to clutch to.

    Funny thing is that this is probably the way in which Brexit will be least damaging, but all the leave voters will be moaning about it anyway.
  • verylonglegs
    verylonglegs Posts: 4,023
    finchy wrote:
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    Jez mon wrote:
    The news doesn't even sound that positive to me...

    "The company has insisted this investment will continue and will be used to meet local demand, but Mr Kaeser said new trade barriers could make it uneconomical to export the blades to Denmark and Germany."

    So from a business pov they are exactly where they were, except they're facing the possibility of it being uneconomical to export...

    It's looking like the only way we'll get away without trade barriers is if we accept all those pesky EU requirements that the leavers are so against.

    You are right it is not positive. Interesting that this is as positive as it gets and people want straws to clutch to.

    Funny thing is that this is probably the way in which Brexit will be least damaging, but all the leave voters will be moaning about it anyway.

    A CEO in that position is bound to say the soothing things required to keep his business running as they stand. What it doesn't say that any new projects coming to the fore in the next few years will be off the table as far as the UK is concerned. Posting a news story like that after 3 weeks of the vote is meaningless, the negative effects will be slower but very real.

    A friend has been in Europe this week as part of a bid for engineering maintenance work and has been told that the choice is between the UK and a company in France. However with the threat of tariffs they are considering the UK to be off limits, after all, why would they get involved with the UK when they don't even know what the rules will be in the next few years? That work and investment may return once our the terms of exit are settled but then again it might be a door that is shut forever.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    You start to get the impression that it is the admin or red tape that puts people off as it seems to be a disproportional effect for around 10%. I fear that many companies who have bases in different countries will keep a separate Uk entity to service our own market.
  • bobmcstuff
    bobmcstuff Posts: 11,435
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    Jez mon wrote:
    The news doesn't even sound that positive to me...

    "The company has insisted this investment will continue and will be used to meet local demand, but Mr Kaeser said new trade barriers could make it uneconomical to export the blades to Denmark and Germany."

    So from a business pov they are exactly where they were, except they're facing the possibility of it being uneconomical to export...

    It's looking like the only way we'll get away without trade barriers is if we accept all those pesky EU requirements that the leavers are so against.

    You are right it is not positive. Interesting that this is as positive as it gets and people want straws to clutch to.

    Confirmation bias.
  • mamba80
    mamba80 Posts: 5,032
    Coopster the 1st wrote:
    Ben6899 wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Coopster the 1st wrote:
    Back on topic...
    Theresa May wrote:
    "Brexit means Brexit and we're going to make a success of it," adding that there would be "no attempt to rejoin [the EU] by the back door".

    Anyone still in denial that we will leave after this quote from our incoming PM?

    Fairly sure we had an argument where you insisted the referendum was only about securing another one with a better negotiating position. I was fairly insistent an out vote meant out.

    Now you're gloating that the result of the 1st one will be enacted?

    He's a dickhead, Rick. Don't waste your breath.

    Back again so soon :roll: How was school today? Did they let you play in the sandpit?

    there are real issues with leaving the EU, forget the economy, its the NHS, the numbers of foreign EU workers, from consultants down to porters, many have no loyalty to the UK and as we ve basically told them to xxxx off, what are we doing to reassure them? looks to me like nothing at all.

    as the economies of eastern europe pick, many will return back home, then what? takes years and years to train medical staff.

    As a leaver, whats your opinion on this Coopster ?
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    This article succinctly addresses some of our debates about devaluation, deficits and FDI.

    http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwo ... xit-vote-0
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,416
    edited July 2016
    verylonglegs wrote:
    A friend has been in Europe this week as part of a bid for engineering maintenance work and has been told that the choice is between the UK and a company in France. However with the threat of tariffs they are considering the UK to be off limits, after all, why would they get involved with the UK when they don't even know what the rules will be in the next few years? That work and investment may return once our the terms of exit are settled but then again it might be a door that is shut forever.
    Your friend thinks that there will be tariffs on maintenance services?
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Had a client tell me to my face today that the business he had planned to give us today was going to be pulled because the work will now be in Dublin because of Brexit, and so they're using a local firm there instead.

    F*ck all of you Brexiters.

    Literally voting to take work away from me.
    _
  • verylonglegs
    verylonglegs Posts: 4,023
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    verylonglegs wrote:
    A friend has been in Europe this week as part of a bid for engineering maintenance work and has been told that the choice is between the UK and a company in France. However with the threat of tariffs they are considering the UK to be off limits, after all, why would they get involved with the UK when they don't even know what the rules will be in the next few years? That work and investment may return once our the terms of exit are settled but then again it might be a door that is shut forever.
    Your friend thinks that there wil be tariffs on maintenance services?

    No, those were the words of the people he was dealing with. It was maintenance services on goods that would have to be shipped in to the UK and back out again. How likely that is I do not know but I guess that was the persons point, they aren't going to take any chances.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,416
    verylonglegs wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    verylonglegs wrote:
    A friend has been in Europe this week as part of a bid for engineering maintenance work and has been told that the choice is between the UK and a company in France. However with the threat of tariffs they are considering the UK to be off limits, after all, why would they get involved with the UK when they don't even know what the rules will be in the next few years? That work and investment may return once our the terms of exit are settled but then again it might be a door that is shut forever.
    Your friend thinks that there wil be tariffs on maintenance services?

    No, those were the words of the people he was dealing with. It was maintenance services on goods that would have to be shipped in to the UK and back out again. How likely that is I do not know but I guess that was the persons point, they aren't going to take any chances.
    They should think it through rather than making assumptions. For a start they could look at WTO rules. Or the temporary import regs.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • verylonglegs
    verylonglegs Posts: 4,023
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    verylonglegs wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    verylonglegs wrote:
    A friend has been in Europe this week as part of a bid for engineering maintenance work and has been told that the choice is between the UK and a company in France. However with the threat of tariffs they are considering the UK to be off limits, after all, why would they get involved with the UK when they don't even know what the rules will be in the next few years? That work and investment may return once our the terms of exit are settled but then again it might be a door that is shut forever.
    Your friend thinks that there wil be tariffs on maintenance services?

    No, those were the words of the people he was dealing with. It was maintenance services on goods that would have to be shipped in to the UK and back out again. How likely that is I do not know but I guess that was the persons point, they aren't going to take any chances.
    They should think it through rather than making assumptions. For a start they could look at WTO rules. Or the temporary import regs.

    I don't know enough to comment further so there may be some truth in that, I was just relaying some of the feedback from people trying to carry on with business in the uncertainty, much like yourself. It's perfectly possible they could be using the situation to drive a harder bargain, who knows. It's quite clear though many people overseas view the UK very differently after the 23rd June, wholly justified or not. It does look like it will cost some dearly in the near term at the moment.
  • finchy
    finchy Posts: 6,686
    mamba80 wrote:
    there are real issues with leaving the EU, forget the economy, its the NHS, the numbers of foreign EU workers, from consultants down to porters, many have no loyalty to the UK and as we ve basically told them to xxxx off, what are we doing to reassure them? looks to me like nothing at all.

    as the economies of eastern europe pick, many will return back home, then what? takes years and years to train medical staff.

    As a leaver, whats your opinion on this Coopster ?

    Yes, I agree with pretty much all of that. As I said earlier in the thread, a nurse friend of mine has had 4 colleagues leave her ward to return home due to the fact that they suddenly feel so unwelcome in this country. She now feels nervous about speaking Czech to her own children in public and is thinking about leaving. I'm sure that her ward isn't a massive anomaly and this will be happening all across the country, and when these people return home, they'll talk and tell their compatriots not to bother with Britain.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,365
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    F*ck all of you Brexiters.
    If your experience today is repeated thousands of times round the country, they'll find out that they are doing it to themselves too, as well as everyone else.
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,416
    briantrumpet wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    F*ck all of you Brexiters.
    If your experience today is repeated thousands of times round the country, they'll find out that they are doing it to themselves too, as well as everyone else.
    Also evidence that it is too emotive a subject for some people to have a rational debate on it.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    I'm not being irrational. I'm losing business and therefore money, and the reason cited is brexit.

    It's rational therefore to be p!ssed off.

    To not be p!ssed off would be to not understand the situation.
    _

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