Farage unravels on LBC.

nathancom

Stevo 666 wrote:

nathancom wrote:

27% of 33.8% is about 9% of the UK adult population voted for UKIP. BNP vote fell from 6% to 1% so really we are looking at the consolidation of the Far Right. Not a mandate for leaving Europe.

Still Hitler got less than 5% of the vote in 1928, losing his deposit, and managed to win the election 5 years later so it is definitely an earthquake and something to worry about.

Didn't take long for Godwins law to kick in...comparing UKIP to Hitler is a bit of a stretch by most peoples standards.

I mentioned earlier in this thread that one useful function of UKIP may be to put a bit more 'spine' into our dealings with Brussels - reading pretty much any media source on the impact of the euro elections it looks like that may well be happening, as a share of the vote of that size indicates a sizeable part of the population are hacked off with the 'main' parties approach to the subject. The pro-EU parties in the European parliament itself still hold a workable majority, but the political parties in the UK cannot ignore the message.

A protest vote much of it might be, but it's certainly shaken things up. 'Up yours Delors' is making a comeback

I don't think Farage is similar to Hitler though I think Golden Dawn are more so. It is more to show how what seems like low levels of support can change into election winning results.

I am not sure it counts for Godwin's law since we are discussing Far Right politics and the economic parallels are interesting enough with the Great Depression etc to warrant a reference back to then.

Would you favour withdrawal from Europe? I would have thought it would be extremely damaging for your line of business, unless you see London becoming like Switzerland (what does the rest of the country do though, make cuckoo clocks?). Personally I think there is much more chance of us leaving Europe than Scottish Independence.

Stevo_666

nathancom wrote:

I don't think Farage is similar to Hitler though I think Golden Dawn are more so. It is more to show how what seems like low levels of support can change into election winning results.

I am not sure it counts for Godwin's law since we are discussing Far Right politics and the economic parallels are interesting enough with the Great Depression etc to warrant a reference back to then.

Would you favour withdrawal from Europe? I would have thought it would be extremely damaging for your line of business, unless you see London becoming like Switzerland (what does the rest of the country do though, make cuckoo clocks?). Personally I think there is much more chance of us leaving Europe than Scottish Independence.

I agree with you about Golden Dawn.

Re: withdrawal - no, I prefer to try renegotiation. There are good parts to our involvement in Europe that I would want to keep; and there are parts I would not want to keep. But we have to be prepared to wield the big stick if we are to make headway with the EU on that front. I don't think it will come to complete withdrawal - the real outcome is likely to be much more 'shades of grey' and fairly complex.

As for my line of business - tax will be around regardless of being 'in or out' of the EU, or something in between. Most of my work is dealing with countries other than the UK anyway. Also given the universal nature of tax, I can/have worked in several types of business - hotels, media & advertising, management consulting, technology and manufacturing so there is always the option to move if needed. The old saying about 'death and taxes' does have some truth to it.

MaxwellBygraves

Here's the most relevant graph from the Euro elections:

Stevo_666

Now take out abstentions (which everyone knows do not count) and it looks more like this:

finchy

Stevo 666 wrote:

Now take out abstentions (which everyone knows do not count) and it looks more like this:

That means that more people voted for pro-EU parties than anti-EU/pro-referendum parties (UKIP, Greens, BNP). Probably most people are like you (and me) - want to stay in, but unhappy with the current state of the Union. The problem is, what shape do the reforms take?

pblakeney

johnfinch wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Now take out abstentions (which everyone knows do not count) and it looks more like this:

That means that more people voted for pro-EU parties than anti-EU/pro-referendum parties (UKIP, Greens, BNP). Probably most people are like you (and me) - want to stay in, but unhappy with the current state of the Union. The problem is, what shape do the reforms take?

By all appearances, round.

Stevo_666

johnfinch wrote:

That means that more people voted for pro-EU parties than anti-EU/pro-referendum parties (UKIP, Greens, BNP).

Surely the Tories are in the pro-referendum camp (if not outright anti-EU)? In which case the euro-sceptic votes form a sizeable absolute majority.

johnfinch wrote:

Probably most people are like you (and me) - want to stay in, but unhappy with the current state of the Union. The problem is, what shape do the reforms take?

Agree with you on the first bit of that - we could have a whole new debate on what's needed.

MaxwellBygraves

Stevo 666 wrote:

Now take out abstentions (which everyone knows do not count) and it looks more like this:

That's an image from the Guardian Stevo. I'm disappointed in you.

finchy

Stevo 666 wrote:

johnfinch wrote:

That means that more people voted for pro-EU parties than anti-EU/pro-referendum parties (UKIP, Greens, BNP).

Surely the Tories are in the pro-referendum camp (if not outright anti-EU)? In which case the euro-sceptic votes form a sizeable absolute majority.

The three I mentioned have been in favour of pulling out or offering a referendum for ages, whereas I'd say that the Tory leadership at least (although not necessarily the grassroots) have been pro-membership and are just offering a referendum to prevent too many of their voters deserting to UKIP. I didn't explain it very well in my earlier post though

Stevo_666

MaxwellBygraves wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Now take out abstentions (which everyone knows do not count) and it looks more like this:

That's an image from the Guardian Stevo. I'm disappointed in you.

Well I didn't want some of you lot thinking I was trying to use biased information sources did I?

rick_chasey

Wasn't a good result if you are not anti-Euro.

One thing I've noticed purely annecdotally: almost everyone in my office is politically disengaged. Most are probably Thatcherite Tories, but none of them voted, or care.

Now when pressed on Europe - a simple 'do you want to be part of the EU or not' the response was basically 'don't care as long as we stay in the single market' ( international headhunters unsurprisingly like the free movement of labour).

Point is, most people I know who are in that apathetic 65% camp are like that. They don't have a strong opinion either way, but the status quo is OK too. Not great, but not good or bad enough to get them into a booth.

My point being, could it be that anti-EU types are much more likely to be motivated to get out and vote than those who are happy/don't mind the status quo?

Being a party (like the Lib Dems) who go out and say 'we want what we already have' is not particularly motivating.

Maybe it's rubbish.

sungod

i think your point is correct, the ones foaming at the mouth about whatever their latest messiah has told them is the trouble with this country - immigrants, cyclists, bbc, eu, metric system, gravity, etc. - are the ones who get fired up to vote

especially when it's the eu election where most seem to not even understand what the eu is about, it leaves the field wide open for extremists

the mass market press is controlled by people who dislike the eu, and the bbc has been cowed into submission and given up any effort to inform or educate, so the nutters with the loudest voices are the ones that get heard

years back i signed up for a postal vote, otherwise with business i'd often be away on polling day, if more of the jaded electorate would at least summon up the energy to do the same it might help make results a bit more representative, although they'd still have to make the effort to get to a post box

morstar

Interesting point about the BBC. They led with a very negative article about immigration rates on election day which surprised me.
I consider the BBC's biggest failing is normally its willingness to join in media euphoria (e.g. Devil dogs) rather than actually pushing the agenda in the way a politically aligned newspaper would do. In this case, they genuinely did seem to be pushing the agenda.
Do agree about voting apathy for eu elections but personally, I was more motivated than normal as I find Ukip is a hideous organisation and wanted to do my bit to limit their progress.
Are their policies overtly racist? No. Are their policies an acceptable facade to an otherwise offensive collective of bigoted people and agendas? In my opinion, yes.

RideOnTime

Stevo 666 wrote:

MaxwellBygraves wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Now take out abstentions (which everyone knows do not count) and it looks more like this:

That's an image from the Guardian Stevo. I'm disappointed in you.

Well I didn't want some of you lot thinking I was trying to use biased information sources did I?

So 28% in a European election.
But what in a general election.
They have no credible policies to deal with domestic issues.
I think they'll poll less than half this - lets say 13%.
Unless the great British public are even more stupid than I give them credit for.

DeVlaeminck

Rick Chasey wrote:

Point is, most people I know who are in that apathetic 65% camp are like that. They don't have a strong opinion either way, but the status quo is OK too. Not great, but not good or bad enough to get them into a booth.

My point being, could it be that anti-EU types are much more likely to be motivated to get out and vote than those who are happy/don't mind the status quo?

Being a party (like the Lib Dems) who go out and say 'we want what we already have' is not particularly motivating.

Maybe it's rubbish.

There will be research that would answer that question Rick, can't say I'm on top of what it says but I would doubt it supports that line of argument. The election results are not out of line with opinion polls and I don't think we can write these results off as being out of line with what people in the UK think. I'm not saying they actually sign up to the UKIP manifesto just that if we forced everyone to vote I doubt the UKIP share of the vote would fall.

Intuitively we might expect UKIP support to fall with higher levels of education, yet education has a positive correlation with likelihood to vote, if I had to make a bet I'd say the results actually underestimate the number of people who would vote UKIP if forced to put a cross in a box.

joenobody

DeVlaeminck wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Point is, most people I know who are in that apathetic 65% camp are like that. They don't have a strong opinion either way, but the status quo is OK too. Not great, but not good or bad enough to get them into a booth.

My point being, could it be that anti-EU types are much more likely to be motivated to get out and vote than those who are happy/don't mind the status quo?

Being a party (like the Lib Dems) who go out and say 'we want what we already have' is not particularly motivating.

Maybe it's rubbish.

There will be research that would answer that question Rick, can't say I'm on top of what it says but I would doubt it supports that line of argument. The election results are not out of line with opinion polls and I don't think we can write these results off as being out of line with what people in the UK think. I'm not saying they actually sign up to the UKIP manifesto just that if we forced everyone to vote I doubt the UKIP share of the vote would fall.

Intuitively we might expect UKIP support to fall with higher levels of education, yet education has a positive correlation with likelihood to vote, if I had to make a bet I'd say the results actually underestimate the number of people who would vote UKIP if forced to put a cross in a box.

GE turnout is generally much higher than we have just seen - GE turnout since 1945. I suspect most UKIP supporters voted, so wouldn't expect them to see many more votes in a GE than they've see in the local/EU elections. What looks like a decent share of the vote won't look quite the same next year imo...

DeVlaeminck

I suspect it's more the case that people are more willing to vote UKIP in these elections than in a general election - in other words people who voted UKIP here will return to one of the main 3 parties at the general election - than supporters of those 3 parties just didn't turn out to vote.

Paulie W

There is some evidence that not voting is not just about apathy but is for some a protest vote against the main parties.

ballysmate

As I said earlier, UKIP have attracted the votes from people who think the main party aren't listening to their concerns..
People are branded racists or bigots for asking questions about levels of immigration.

Gillian Duffy, a core Labour voter, branded a bigot for engaging the PM in questions, one of which was about immigration.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/ ... 649308.stm

Politicians haven't been listening, but I bet they have pricked up their ears now.

I don't want UKIP anywhere near government, I just hope it isn't too late to reverse the trend.

ddraver

Paulie W wrote:

There is some evidence that not voting is not just about apathy but is for some a protest vote against the main parties.

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/ ... 4052786930

DeVlaeminck

Ballysmate wrote:

Gillian Duffy, a core Labour voter, branded a bigot for engaging the PM in questions, one of which was about immigration.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/ ... 649308.stm

.

The piece where they tell her what Brown said is quite moving ! It also pretty much sums up what the Labour party at Westminster think of many natural Labour voters.

mamba80

there are no natural labour party voters, there is so little to chose between the 3 main parties anymore and no one believes any of them, Cameron et el can say what they like, we all know it is just to maintain or get into power, Farage is seen as a more honest guy and the danger for the tories etc is that people will carry on voting for him/ukip in a GE, the main parties only hope is that he does a Dr Kelly.
As for Brown, he was sorry for one thing, leaving the mic on!

ballysmate

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politic ... votes.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politic ... ghold.html


So a new party in Westminster.
There are problems for both main parties. The Tories are leaking support and it appears that safe Labour seats 'Up North' are history.
The politicians haven't been listening but I bet they are listening now. I hope it is not too late.

solosuperia

Reporter on the BBC this morning........
If UKIP win the Rochester and Strood election next week, we will see some more MP defections from the Tory party to UKIP.
Reading between the lines.
Party loyalty counts for nothing!
It is all about staying on the gravy train.
Turns your stomach when you realise our Rt. Hon MPs true colours.
I vote, because I believe if you don't you cannot criticise if you don't. But have no allegiance to any of the mainstream parties.
I think they all need a boot up their Rt. Hon. ar$es............

DeVlaeminck

There will be a few MPs from all parties looking nervously towards the next election.

To be fair to the MPs that have jumped ship - I don't think they can be accused of doing it to preserve their political careers.

pdstsp

Heard a bloke interviewed on Radio 5 this morning about why he had voted UKIP. He explained that it was because they would stop all the immigrants coming over and claiming benefits. He then went on to complain that young people in Clacton couldn't get a job because all the immigrants have come over and taken all the jobs.

Those immigrants eh - all claiming dole and all doing all the work. B@stards.

Problem is that this party seems good at connecting with people and getting them to believe this twaddle.

RideOnTime

SoloSuperia wrote:

Reporter on the BBC this morning........

It is all about staying on the gravy train........

What if the gravy train were to crash into the pie train... or a lorry carrying pies comes of a bridge on to the gravy train...

ukiboy

No great surprise that ukip did so well yesterday.. A large part of the electorate feel disillusioned, disenfranchised and plain pissed off with the mainstream morons..
Labour? Bunch of hypocritical champagne socialists led by a liberal, cosseted Islington elite. Millionaires the lot of them - Millibands, Blairs, Harman... And Diane Abbott and Emma Thompson privately educating their sprogs - height of hypocrisy..
Tories? No better.. Led by privileged, moneyed Eton posh boys.. And with policies and views that merge into one with the labour posh boys and girls..
Liberal Democrats? A joke.. Irrelevant, impotent and as much use as an ashtray on a motorbike..
The average man and woman in the street cannot relate in any way to Cameron, Clegg or Milliband and they cannot relate to us hence Nigel doing rather well..
Not a bad thing that the mainstream status quo is being upset a tad.

orraloon

Emma Thompson? Is that the actress Emma Thompson? What's she done to tick you off, apart from the dodgy films....?

ukiboy

Nothing other than display crass hypocrisy.. Sending her kids to a private school rather than the local state school which I'm sure any good labour voting socialist would do.
Then again, when you're a good labour voting socialist with millions in the bank you can just make it up as you go along....
Emma Thompson, Russell Brand, Blair Twat, Balls, Harman etc etc = Osborne, Cameron, Clegg, Hammond, Fallon etc etc...