Friday Thread: If Scotland vote YES will TWH have to leave?
Comments
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PBlakeney wrote:
Is that not precisely why the Yes campaign are asking for smooth and quick negotiations prior to May 2016?Greg66 Tri v2.0 wrote:Less flippantly, iScotland will be outside the EU. Whether rUK is in or out, there will be import duties and excise duties on goods moving either way over the border. That won't help trade.
Not sure how that will help though. iScotland isn't getting EU membership for a long time. It just doesn't have the economy to gain EU membership. Which means as far as England is concerned, for imports it will be no different to the US.
No doubt the SNP have some arrangement of implausible and unsupportable statements and claims to the contrary, but making stuff up is their strong suit.0 -
Greg66 Tri v2.0 wrote:PBlakeney wrote:
Is that not precisely why the Yes campaign are asking for smooth and quick negotiations prior to May 2016?Greg66 Tri v2.0 wrote:Less flippantly, iScotland will be outside the EU. Whether rUK is in or out, there will be import duties and excise duties on goods moving either way over the border. That won't help trade.
Not sure how that will help though. iScotland isn't getting EU membership for a long time. It just doesn't have the economy to gain EU membership. Which means as far as England is concerned, for imports it will be no different to the US.
No doubt the SNP have some arrangement of implausible and unsupportable statements and claims to the contrary, but making stuff up is their strong suit.
Couple of points:
1) EU has already said it's prepared to fast track membership if necessary because it understands citizens in Scotland are already currently EU citizens.
2) why just because you're outside the EU does it mean there will necessarily be import & excise duties? Fairly big assumption. My understanding is IScotland can decide how freely or not goods can move in and out of borders. Given its current status as already within the EU before the ref, free trade deals would not be difficult to arrange.0 -
I would imagine that the difficulties of allowing Scotland into the EU as an independent country would pale into insignificance compares with the difficulties of excluding us. The whole idea that they would kick out five million citizens that currently comply with all European legislation, disrupting internal markets in order to let us back in at a later date sounds ridiculous. Why go to the extent of discrediting what has been an entirely peaceful and democratic vote?0
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Greg66 Tri v2.0 wrote:No doubt the SNP have some arrangement of implausible and unsupportable statements and claims to the contrary, but making stuff up is their strong suit.
Neither side can pride itself with honesty in this, please don't think that the 'no' campaign are any better. If anything a lot of their lies have been extremely insulting to the people up here, one of the reasons that this may actually happen.
If anyone is wanting more impartial reading material, I recommend this PDF:
http://www.futureukandscotland.ac.uk/si ... 0ebook.pdf
They've got together leading academics who claim not to have a bias to actually cut through the politicians spin. Not for everyone, I'm sure, but it's not all doom and gloom, and it's not all roses either.0 -
UndercoverElephant wrote:Greg66 Tri v2.0 wrote:No doubt the SNP have some arrangement of implausible and unsupportable statements and claims to the contrary, but making stuff up is their strong suit.
Neither side can pride itself with honesty in this, please don't think that the 'no' campaign are any better. If anything a lot of their lies have been extremely insulting to the people up here, one of the reasons that this may actually happen.
If anyone is wanting more impartial reading material, I recommend this PDF:
http://www.futureukandscotland.ac.uk/si ... 0ebook.pdf
They've got together leading academics who claim not to have a bias to actually cut through the politicians spin. Not for everyone, I'm sure, but it's not all doom and gloom, and it's not all roses either.
I skimmed the section of the PDF that addresses EU membership. It is happily lacking the hyperbole of either side, but on the other hand it never really grasps, much less answers, the key issues: does iScotland meet the economic criteria for a new state to enter the EU (and if not, other than "where there's a will there's a way", how will that issue be circumnavigated), and would it have to use the Euro, like any other new entrant (again, if not, how/why?).
It's the "don't worry about the questions, we will sort the answers out down the road" problem that bedevils so much of the Yes campaign at a "head" level. Undoubtedly the Yes campaign has a much stronger "heart" case. One suspects that in the event of a No vote, and a rerun of this vote in the next 10-15 years, Yes v2.0 will have properly thought out answers to these various issues.0 -
UndercoverElephant wrote:If anyone is wanting more impartial reading material, I recommend this PDF:
http://www.futureukandscotland.ac.uk/si ... 0ebook.pdf
They've got together leading academics who claim not to have a bias to actually cut through the politicians spin. Not for everyone, I'm sure, but it's not all doom and gloom, and it's not all roses either.
That is one of the documents that was sent on to me by my friends in the north. It is quite probably the most independent one but not very easy reading for two reasons.
1. It is quite long and tiring reading.
2. It gives an unpleasant but factual conclusion. No matter which way the vote goes no side can guarantee what will happen in the future.Rick Chasey wrote:Basically. It's difficult to have that conversation when there is no mandate to do so.
Imagine 3 years ago, Salmon & co trying to arrange a plan "in the event of independence...." "Yeah yeah Alex, dream on. Stop wasting my time"Rick Chasey wrote:Couple of points:
1) EU has already said it's prepared to fast track membership if necessary because it understands citizens in Scotland are already currently EU citizens.
2) why just because you're outside the EU does it mean there will necessarily be import & excise duties? Fairly big assumption. My understanding is IScotland can decide how freely or not goods can move in and out of borders. Given its current status as already within the EU before the ref, free trade deals would not be difficult to arrange.
It sounds as if Mr. Chasey has been converted.
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
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Your more recent comments seem to answer the questions which the No Campaign keep saying that Alex Salmond won't answer but it is simply that they will not accept the simple correct answer already supplied.Rick Chasey wrote:Curious to know which way.
Your answers are answers that a Yes Campaigner would give.The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
TailWindHome wrote:YIMan wrote:Aberdeen_lune wrote:It's our democratic right so well all just have to wait and see. The negotiations won't be easy if it's a yes. They may take some time but I can assure you we won't be a pushover.
Not sure why anyone would be angry about another country exercising their democratic right.
You don't have any democratic rights in a country you are no longer part of, it's as simple as that.
It's like, you've built a house with some friends and all live there reasonably happily for a while, sharing the benefits that clubbing together to build a bigger, swankier house brings.
Then you decide that you want to live by yourself because the other four people in the house decided to paint the living room blue and you wanted it red.
At the point you leave the house, you might leave with your duvet, a few cups, your personal possessions and very definitely paying your remaining share of the bills and debts. You'll have to find/build another house all of your own!
What you can't do is start wheelbarrowing off bricks, windows, radiators and water pipes because you think it's your right. Those things are part of the fabric of living in the house - if you live in the house, you benefit from them - if you leave the house, you leave them behind.
There's no negotiating with the people still living in the house....the answer is "you decided to leave, good luck in the wide world but you can't start picking off the bits of the house you think you want and taking them with you". The people in the house will take your front door key off you and will start charging you rent if you decide you want to sleep there for a night or two.
Cool story
But that's not how it works.
The guy moving out owns 20% of the house. He gets that in whatever form he negotiates.
I presume the English will want to trade with an independent Scotland at some stage and therefore a prosperous Scotland is in the interests of the English.
See MkII - the community association where the assets are owned by the community. They cannot be readily split up and apportioned to individuals who off their own back decide they don't want to be part of it any more.
By "The English" , I presume you mean the UK which will still have English, Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish residing in it. Yes, the UK will want to trade with Scotland (which will also still have English, Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish residing in it).
The UK also wants to trade with France and Germany but that doesn't mean it will start handing over its assets to them.
Is that the plan "The UK will want to trade with Scotland so they'll be kind to us during negotiations"?0 -
Import duties are set by the EU, so iScotland if not a member will have to pay them unless the EU allows them a get out, it wont be a decision for the rUK gov't.Rick Chasey wrote:
2) why just because you're outside the EU does it mean there will necessarily be import & excise duties? Fairly big assumption. My understanding is IScotland can decide how freely or not goods can move in and out of borders. Given its current status as already within the EU before the ref, free trade deals would not be difficult to arrange.Currently riding a Whyte T130C, X0 drivetrain, Magura Trail brakes converted to mixed wheel size (homebuilt wheels) with 140mm Fox 34 Rhythm and RP23 suspension. 12.2Kg.0 -
So given Scotland today is part of the EU, I'd be extremely surprised if the EU doesn't extrnd the free trade agreement to Scotland. No one benefits if it's otherwise - especially given they're being fast tracked for the EU.0
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PBlakeney wrote:
Your more recent comments seem to answer the questions which the No Campaign keep saying that Alex Salmond won't answer but it is simply that they will not accept the simple correct answer already supplied.Rick Chasey wrote:Curious to know which way.
Your answers are answers that a Yes Campaigner would give.
I see it like this:
It's up to Scotland to decide and there are no better or worse reasons for wanting independence or not.
I do take issue with some of the assumptions people have taken as shorthand in the debate. This thread is more no than yes so that's probably why I sound more yes than no.
I personally worry about the UK in Europe if Scotland leaves, given that's a much more pro EU group of people than th rest. But that's my problem not theirs, so shouldn't really have a bearing.0 -
A fair and balanced view Rick.The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Rick Chasey wrote:Greg66 Tri v2.0 wrote:PBlakeney wrote:
Is that not precisely why the Yes campaign are asking for smooth and quick negotiations prior to May 2016?Greg66 Tri v2.0 wrote:Less flippantly, iScotland will be outside the EU. Whether rUK is in or out, there will be import duties and excise duties on goods moving either way over the border. That won't help trade.
Not sure how that will help though. iScotland isn't getting EU membership for a long time. It just doesn't have the economy to gain EU membership. Which means as far as England is concerned, for imports it will be no different to the US.
No doubt the SNP have some arrangement of implausible and unsupportable statements and claims to the contrary, but making stuff up is their strong suit.
Couple of points:
1) EU has already said it's prepared to fast track membership if necessary because it understands citizens in Scotland are already currently EU citizens.
2) why just because you're outside the EU does it mean there will necessarily be import & excise duties? Fairly big assumption. My understanding is IScotland can decide how freely or not goods can move in and out of borders. Given its current status as already within the EU before the ref, free trade deals would not be difficult to arrange.
I know you're responding to the question about trade but EU is FAR more than just trade. I'm going to throw in fisheries and farm subsidies for starters. Then there's harmonised standards, border controls, and sooo many other things. Membership also isn't a slam dunk - talking to a Spanish colleague today, confirmed that Spain will really object to a newly-independent Scotland joining (for obvious reasons)ROAD < Scott Foil HMX Di2, Volagi Liscio Di2, Jamis Renegade Elite Di2, Cube Reaction Race > ROUGH0 -
PBlakeney wrote:
Your more recent comments seem to answer the questions which the No Campaign keep saying that Alex Salmond won't answer but it is simply that they will not accept the simple correct answer already supplied.Rick Chasey wrote:Curious to know which way.
Your answers are answers that a Yes Campaigner would give.
And they raise lots of unanswered questions. Superficially they're fine but as soon as you get into the detail and the facts they start to fall apart. If I didn't think it mattered, I wouldn't much care. I'm English after all and don't have plans to remain in Scotland forever but I'm really worried about the simplistic approach of the Yes campaign and what it will mean even in the short term. The two wealthiest (and proudest) Scots I know have moved all of their money out of Scotland. They're both rational and savvy people (self-made fortunes). These aren't knee-jerk reactions. I don't see people clammering to invest in Scotland to offset this exodus of capital.ROAD < Scott Foil HMX Di2, Volagi Liscio Di2, Jamis Renegade Elite Di2, Cube Reaction Race > ROUGH0 -
How they are going to pay for their privileges, such as free education? With those few barrels of oil left in the North Sea? If the UK can't afford them, surely an independent Scotland can't afford them either. The way I see it is that right now we are paying for their privileges as an act of good will... and still they are not happy!
If they want to be independent, good for them, but if they expect to be better off, they will come to terms with the harsh reality of modern economy!left the forum March 20230 -
Privileges like a free education?ugo.santalucia wrote:How they are going to pay for their privileges, such as free education?
That's why we need to get away from the UK, you've been indoctrinated for so long you probably believe it!0 -
a lot of the tales of doom and gloom are greatly exaggerated (for obvious reasons) likewise Salmonds rosy outlook is greatly exaggerated. Nobody knows what will happen but any economic decline will most likely be gradual... ie nothing majorly measurable for 5-10 years.
What is a fact is that the EU has very strict rules and Scotland will have to apply and as each member state has a veto they will not get in. As they would have to take full membership with no opt outs they may not want it anyway.
Bizarrely if the joined the Commonwealth they would gain some favourable trading relationships with the EU. I am not sure if this is possible but would be very funny.
Whilst there will be no turning back from independence each individual can of course opt to leave0 -
I agree on this point. University education was free in England for a very long time before the fees were introduced and should be again.UndercoverElephant wrote:
Privileges like a free education?ugo.santalucia wrote:How they are going to pay for their privileges, such as free education?
That's why we need to get away from the UK, you've been indoctrinated for so long you probably believe it!0 -
elbowloh wrote:
I agree on this point. University education was free in England for a very long time before the fees were introduced and should be again.UndercoverElephant wrote:
Privileges like a free education?ugo.santalucia wrote:How they are going to pay for their privileges, such as free education?
That's why we need to get away from the UK, you've been indoctrinated for so long you probably believe it!
those using it should pay - why should a bloke on a production line pay more tax to pay for somebody to go to university for 3 years?0 -
elbowloh wrote:
I agree on this point. University education was free in England for a very long time before the fees were introduced and should be again.UndercoverElephant wrote:
Privileges like a free education?ugo.santalucia wrote:How they are going to pay for their privileges, such as free education?
That's why we need to get away from the UK, you've been indoctrinated for so long you probably believe it!
I'm all for free University... working in the area... problem is you can't have 50% of the 18 years old at University and have free university, it's just unaffordable... it's one way or the other... and it looks like we have gone that way. The only sustainable way of doing it is to offer free places for the top students... but when the minmum entry requirements are 3 AAA, who are the top students?
The other way of doing it is to cut the defence budget, Scotland could do that, gambling on Russia not starting a new cold war and China not having expansion ideas... both gambles are quite risky!left the forum March 20230 -
Surrey Commuter wrote:elbowloh wrote:
I agree on this point. University education was free in England for a very long time before the fees were introduced and should be again.UndercoverElephant wrote:
Privileges like a free education?ugo.santalucia wrote:How they are going to pay for their privileges, such as free education?
That's why we need to get away from the UK, you've been indoctrinated for so long you probably believe it!
those using it should pay - why should a bloke on a production line pay more tax to pay for somebody to go to university for 3 years?
Because when he has a heart attack he'll need someone to fix it, when he has kids he'll need someone to educate them, when his teeth hurt he'll need someone to fill them.....“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
Because the next person who benefits could be his son or daughter? Under the UK system, perhaps they wouldn't have the chance to go?Surrey Commuter wrote:elbowloh wrote:
I agree on this point. University education was free in England for a very long time before the fees were introduced and should be again.UndercoverElephant wrote:
Privileges like a free education?ugo.santalucia wrote:How they are going to pay for their privileges, such as free education?
That's why we need to get away from the UK, you've been indoctrinated for so long you probably believe it!
those using it should pay - why should a bloke on a production line pay more tax to pay for somebody to go to university for 3 years?
Besides, people with degrees generally earn more, so if you give more people the opportunity to go, they pay more tax, they actually fund more of the state.0 -
YIMan wrote:TailWindHome wrote:YIMan wrote:Aberdeen_lune wrote:It's our democratic right so well all just have to wait and see. The negotiations won't be easy if it's a yes. They may take some time but I can assure you we won't be a pushover.
Not sure why anyone would be angry about another country exercising their democratic right.
You don't have any democratic rights in a country you are no longer part of, it's as simple as that.
It's like, you've built a house with some friends and all live there reasonably happily for a while, sharing the benefits that clubbing together to build a bigger, swankier house brings.
Then you decide that you want to live by yourself because the other four people in the house decided to paint the living room blue and you wanted it red.
At the point you leave the house, you might leave with your duvet, a few cups, your personal possessions and very definitely paying your remaining share of the bills and debts. You'll have to find/build another house all of your own!
What you can't do is start wheelbarrowing off bricks, windows, radiators and water pipes because you think it's your right. Those things are part of the fabric of living in the house - if you live in the house, you benefit from them - if you leave the house, you leave them behind.
There's no negotiating with the people still living in the house....the answer is "you decided to leave, good luck in the wide world but you can't start picking off the bits of the house you think you want and taking them with you". The people in the house will take your front door key off you and will start charging you rent if you decide you want to sleep there for a night or two.
Cool story
But that's not how it works.
The guy moving out owns 20% of the house. He gets that in whatever form he negotiates.
I presume the English will want to trade with an independent Scotland at some stage and therefore a prosperous Scotland is in the interests of the English.
See MkII - the community association where the assets are owned by the community. They cannot be readily split up and apportioned to individuals who off their own back decide they don't want to be part of it any more.
By "The English" , I presume you mean the UK which will still have English, Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish residing in it. Yes, the UK will want to trade with Scotland (which will also still have English, Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish residing in it).
The UK also wants to trade with France and Germany but that doesn't mean it will start handing over its assets to them.
Is that the plan "The UK will want to trade with Scotland so they'll be kind to us during negotiations"?
MkII is fundamentally flawed for the same reason highlighted
Yup. Same as if I said 'The French' in this context I'd mean all creeds, colours and nationalities in that country.
Yeah Northern Ireland will trade with Scotland - about 700mil a year - England is the dominant partner.
Not France or Germany as they are strong econcomies which don't need support. This isn't a new concept - GB loaned Ireland 10 Billion recently, not because they like Terry Wogan but because Ireland is a key customer for British goods. Customers going bust is bad for UK Plc.
Being kind is nothing to do with anything.“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
ugo.santalucia wrote:I'm all for free University... working in the area... problem is you can't have 50% of the 18 years old at University and have free university,
Yup - the figures are stark in terms of the percentages that went to university when it was "free" (of course it wasn't free but paid for indirectly) and now. In fact, the thing that limits numbers now is whether students think it's good value or not. That has to be a Good Thing in one way or another.ROAD < Scott Foil HMX Di2, Volagi Liscio Di2, Jamis Renegade Elite Di2, Cube Reaction Race > ROUGH0 -
meanredspider wrote:ugo.santalucia wrote:I'm all for free University... working in the area... problem is you can't have 50% of the 18 years old at University and have free university,
Yup - the figures are stark in terms of the percentages that went to university when it was "free" (of course it wasn't free but paid for indirectly) and now. In fact, the thing that limits numbers now is whether students think it's good value or not. That has to be a Good Thing in one way or another.
I think the system is flawed and University should be for the academically gifted. Instead now,looking at hte exam results, half of my foundation year students struggle converting millimetres into centimeters... OK they don't have an A in maths, but still... FFS, should these folks go to Uni, or should they rather do something else?left the forum March 20230 -
TailWindHome wrote:GB loaned Ireland 10 Billion recently
Ah yes - Ireland. You don't hear Ireland being quoted too often by the Yes campaign do you? I wonder why not (despite being a very close example of a small independent country bordering the UK that used to be tied to the pound etc etc)ROAD < Scott Foil HMX Di2, Volagi Liscio Di2, Jamis Renegade Elite Di2, Cube Reaction Race > ROUGH0 -
TailWindHome wrote:
See MkII - the community association where the assets are owned by the community. They cannot be readily split up and apportioned to individuals who off their own back decide they don't want to be part of it any more.
By "The English" , I presume you mean the UK which will still have English, Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish residing in it. Yes, the UK will want to trade with Scotland (which will also still have English, Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish residing in it).
The UK also wants to trade with France and Germany but that doesn't mean it will start handing over its assets to them.
Is that the plan "The UK will want to trade with Scotland so they'll be kind to us during negotiations"?
MkII is fundamentally flawed for the same reason highlighted
Yup. Same as if I said 'The French' in this context I'd mean all creeds, colours and nationalities in that country.
Yeah Northern Ireland will trade with Scotland - about 700mil a year - England is the dominant partner.
Not France or Germany as they are strong econcomies which don't need support. This isn't a new concept - GB loaned Ireland 10 Billion recently, not because they like Terry Wogan but because Ireland is a key customer for British goods. Customers going bust is bad for UK Plc.
Being kind is nothing to do with anything.
Then you have fundamentally misunderstood MKII if you think being owned by the community means you can start stripping the community's assets if you decide to leave it.
I'm sure the French and the Scottish would disagree with your interpretations.
Receiving "support" as a supplier or trade partner is very very different from being in a strong position to negotiate what you think is your share of the assets you're entitled to when you voluntarily leave a parent company's governance so you can set up on your own.0 -
Did you suddenly pay less tax when they started charging a fees?Surrey Commuter wrote:elbowloh wrote:
I agree on this point. University education was free in England for a very long time before the fees were introduced and should be again.UndercoverElephant wrote:
Privileges like a free education?ugo.santalucia wrote:How they are going to pay for their privileges, such as free education?
That's why we need to get away from the UK, you've been indoctrinated for so long you probably believe it!
those using it should pay - why should a bloke on a production line pay more tax to pay for somebody to go to university for 3 years?
Should everyone else pay more tax to pay for all the subsidies that the Government gives to manufacturing companies to set up production lines in the UK?
There's also the argument that on average, graduates pay back more in tax over their careers than non-graduates, to they are paying for their education themselves.0 -
https://twitter.com/bbcnewsnight/status ... 7276802048meanredspider wrote:. Then there's harmonised standards, border controls, and sooo many other things. Membership also isn't a slam dunk - talking to a Spanish colleague today, confirmed that Spain will really object to a newly-independent Scotland joining (for obvious reasons)
@BBCNewsnight: 'I don't see in the future for any new member state to not be part of the Euro', Spanish Europe Minister #newsnight0
