Friday Thread: If Scotland vote YES will TWH have to leave?

rick_chasey

Another correction - you can't stop another nation using your currency.

Panama and Ecuador use USD. Currency is just a medium of exchange.

What you can stop is countries controlling the currency. So what people mean by 'you can't have the currency' is actually 'you won't be able to control the supply of or interest on the currency'. The implied threat there is 'even if you use Sterling, our BofE won't look after the interests of the wider sterling base, but just England, Wales & Northern Ireland'.

Chances are they might consider it anyway (just less so) given that a prosperous Scotland, even an independent one, is useful for the English economy.

There's also nothing to stop Scotland setting up the Scottish pound and tying it to British Sterling like Denmark does with the Euro. Is more a case of how wise it is.

Ultimately if Scotland wants to join the EU they will most likely have to adopt the Euro anyway

rick_chasey

My main concern is that Scottish independence will lead to a spiral which ultimately pulls the rest of the UK out of the EU.

Scotland is a much more Euro-friendly part of the UK, and without them there will be much easier for the Eurosceptics to get their way, and there is so much wrong with that!

Sewinman

Am not sure the Scotts appreciate the anger that will follow a Yes vote. I would fully support the hardest possible negotiation position. We have not had a choice in this matter so give them no quarter. The assets of Scotland belong to those living in England, Wales or N.I just as much as Brits who happen to live in Scotland.

cjcp

PBlakeney wrote:

cjcp wrote:

So a German living in Scotland can vote on Scottish independence, but a Scot living in England can't?

Is that right? That can't be right, surely.

Why ever not?
A vote for independence is made by those in the Country in question, not whoever thinks that they have an interest.
I know that if the vote is Yes then it will affect people in Britain so let's assume that the ex-pat Scot is in New Zealand. Or are you asking for everyone in the UK to have the vote? I think that this has been covered elsewhere.
i.e. England voting to leave would be acceptable. England voting to kick Scotland out would be different. The same result but a different principle.

Seems to dilute the idea of an independent Scotland being a Scottish thing, voted for by Scots, as opposed to a group of people of a variety of nationalities who happen to be living in Scotland at the time.

meanredspider

cjcp wrote:

Seems to dilute the idea of an independent Scotland being a Scottish thing, voted for by Scots, as opposed to a group of people of a variety of nationalities who happen to be living in Scotland at the time.

I'm glad I get to vote as someone who has lived here for 10 years than some Scot in NZ who has no intention of coming back. After all, currently Scotland is part of the UK and I'm a UK citizen - I'm not entirely sure why all UK citizens haven't had a vote

cjcp

meanredspider wrote:

cjcp wrote:

Seems to dilute the idea of an independent Scotland being a Scottish thing, voted for by Scots, as opposed to a group of people of a variety of nationalities who happen to be living in Scotland at the time.

I'm glad I get to vote as someone who has lived here for 10 years than some Scot in NZ who has no intention of coming back. After all, currently Scotland is part of the UK and I'm a UK citizen - I'm not entirely sure why all UK citizens haven't had a vote

Fair enough, if you're naturalised (in a sense )*. And I can understand someone like me, having never lived in Scotland, not having the right to vote, but what about the chap who was born in Scotland, but moved to NZ? If he turned out to be an awesome fly half, and he wanted to play for Scotland rather than NZ, he'd be picked at the first opportunity . So why not give him the right to vote on a matter affecting the country of his birth?

*As regards those who haven't lived there for 10 years, is there a minimum residence requirement?

meanredspider

Well, two of my kids were born in Belgium. That doesn't give them automatic right to Belgian citizenship. I hear what you're saying about sport - but that's sport

It's not at all clear how long you will have needed to live here to have citizenship - it's another of the completely open questions...There are just so many unanswered questions - I have no idea on the position of my family, my tax arrangements, my national insurance status, etc etc it's a little bit farcical.

deejay

The Rookie wrote:

Kieran_Burns wrote:

God I hate that film.

As a film it was OK, as trying to some sort of historical note it was a total fabrication, although not as bad as his American war of Independence 'sequel', a classic case of pandering to an audiences blinkered beliefs.

I've never seen either film but the Scots Parady always seemed on the promos to be :-
MAD MAX in a Kilt.

anonymousblackfg

Sewinman wrote:

Am not sure the Scotts appreciate the anger that will follow a Yes vote. I would fully support the hardest possible negotiation position. We have not had a choice in this matter so give them no quarter. The assets of Scotland belong to those living in England, Wales or N.I just as much as Brits who happen to live in Scotland.

Fully agree on this point. The scots love the idea that we hate them, when in reality were pretty indifferent and quite like a fair bit of Scotland. Currency is easy, debt I expect they'll shirk, in that case no structures/systems will pass their way and I for one will be supporting finger printing to stop them coming south for our nhs.

tailwindhome

To use Greg's divorce analogy, we've done "She''ll never leave", "You'll never make it on your own", "Our friends will take my side" now we're moving onto the bitter custody battles.

Greg66 Tri v2.0 wrote:

Westminster will negotiate independence not as some benevolent older sibling, but as a separate and independent nation. It will be like us now negotiating with Belgium. No favours, no kindness. Look after number one.

That should go well then.

aberdeen_lune

It's our democratic right so well all just have to wait and see. The negotiations won't be easy if it's a yes. They may take some time but I can assure you we won't be a pushover.

Not sure why anyone would be angry about another country exercising their democratic right.

pblakeney

Aberdeen_lune wrote:

It's our democratic right so well all just have to wait and see. The negotiations won't be easy if it's a yes. They may take some time but I can assure you we won't be a pushover.

Not sure why anyone would be angry about another country exercising their democratic right.

Especially the over subsidised ones.
Shouldn't we simply be happy if it is a yes vote?

YIMan

Aberdeen_lune wrote:

It's our democratic right so well all just have to wait and see. The negotiations won't be easy if it's a yes. They may take some time but I can assure you we won't be a pushover.

Not sure why anyone would be angry about another country exercising their democratic right.

You don't have any democratic rights in a country you are no longer part of, it's as simple as that.

It's like, you've built a house with some friends and all live there reasonably happily for a while, sharing the benefits that clubbing together to build a bigger, swankier house brings.

Then you decide that you want to live by yourself because the other four people in the house decided to paint the living room blue and you wanted it red.

At the point you leave the house, you might leave with your duvet, a few cups, your personal possessions and very definitely paying your remaining share of the bills and debts. You'll have to find/build another house all of your own!

What you can't do is start wheelbarrowing off bricks, windows, radiators and water pipes because you think it's your right. Those things are part of the fabric of living in the house - if you live in the house, you benefit from them - if you leave the house, you leave them behind.

There's no negotiating with the people still living in the house....the answer is "you decided to leave, good luck in the wide world but you can't start picking off the bits of the house you think you want and taking them with you". The people in the house will take your front door key off you and will start charging you rent if you decide you want to sleep there for a night or two.

pblakeney

YIMan wrote:

Aberdeen_lune wrote:

It's our democratic right so well all just have to wait and see. The negotiations won't be easy if it's a yes. They may take some time but I can assure you we won't be a pushover.

Not sure why anyone would be angry about another country exercising their democratic right.

You don't have any democratic rights in a country you are no longer part of, it's as simple as that.

It's like, you've built a house with some friends and all live there reasonably happily for a while, sharing the benefits that clubbing together to build a bigger, swankier house brings.

Then you decide that you want to live by yourself because the other four people in the house decided to paint the living room blue and you wanted it red.

At the point you leave the house, you might leave with your duvet, a few cups, your personal possessions and very definitely paying your remaining share of the bills and debts. You'll have to find/build another house all of your own!

What you can't do is start wheelbarrowing off bricks, windows, radiators and water pipes because you think it's your right. Those things are part of the fabric of living in the house - if you live in the house, you benefit from them - if you leave the house, you leave them behind.

There's no negotiating with the people still living in the house....the answer is "you decided to leave, good luck in the wide world but you can't start picking off the bits of the house you think you want and taking them with you". The people in the house will take your front door key off you and will start charging you rent if you decide you want to sleep there for a night or two.

A very nice analogy.
You have missed out the part of the remaining tenants having to buy out the person leaving, or the person leaving renting out his/her share however.

UndercoverElephant

You'd make a dreadful divorce lawyer, Mr YI.

I'd be wanting the remaining people to buy out my share, or we'd have to sell up and split the proceeds.

cjcp

meanredspider wrote:

Well, two of my kids were born in Belgium. That doesn't give them automatic right to Belgian citizenship. I hear what you're saying about sport - but that's sport

It's not at all clear how long you will have needed to live here to have citizenship - it's another of the completely open questions...There are just so many unanswered questions - I have no idea on the position of my family, my tax arrangements, my national insurance status, etc etc it's a little bit farcical.

Have they shown an interest in cobbles yet?

I was thinking of the sort of folk who'd left during their teens or even later, but had grown up in the country etc etc.

Is there no plan regarding pensions etc? What's the plan if the Yes vote prevails? Will Salmond and his team sit round a table and say, "Right, um, what do we do now?"

rick_chasey

Basically. It's difficult to have that conversation when there is no mandate to do so.

Imagine 3 years ago, Salmon & co trying to arrange a plan "in the event of independence...." "Yeah yeah Alex, dream on. Stop wasting my time"

YIMan

PBlakeney wrote:

YIMan wrote:

Aberdeen_lune wrote:

It's our democratic right so well all just have to wait and see. The negotiations won't be easy if it's a yes. They may take some time but I can assure you we won't be a pushover.

Not sure why anyone would be angry about another country exercising their democratic right.

You don't have any democratic rights in a country you are no longer part of, it's as simple as that.

It's like, you've built a house with some friends and all live there reasonably happily for a while, sharing the benefits that clubbing together to build a bigger, swankier house brings.

Then you decide that you want to live by yourself because the other four people in the house decided to paint the living room blue and you wanted it red.

At the point you leave the house, you might leave with your duvet, a few cups, your personal possessions and very definitely paying your remaining share of the bills and debts. You'll have to find/build another house all of your own!

What you can't do is start wheelbarrowing off bricks, windows, radiators and water pipes because you think it's your right. Those things are part of the fabric of living in the house - if you live in the house, you benefit from them - if you leave the house, you leave them behind.

There's no negotiating with the people still living in the house....the answer is "you decided to leave, good luck in the wide world but you can't start picking off the bits of the house you think you want and taking them with you". The people in the house will take your front door key off you and will start charging you rent if you decide you want to sleep there for a night or two.

A very nice analogy.
You have missed out the part of the remaining tenants having to buy out the person leaving, or the person leaving renting out his/her share however.

Yeah, it's not quite right.

Probably a better one is you're part of a community association in your local village where everyone over the years has built a successful village hall.

At the point you decide you want to start a separate new "north of the village" community association (because they put the Newcastle match on the tv and you wanted to watch Sunderland), you can't go to the current village hall and demand the tea urn, part of the roof and the cricket stumps for your new one. The community association just say "you're in our one, you get to use the facilities - you start your own one - you make your own way, but by the way you still owe us for that party you held last month......and give me your keys on the way out".

cjcp

A plan would be a good thing, especially when it involves a matter as important as this. They've had long enough to come up with one.

meanredspider

cjcp wrote:

Is there no plan regarding pensions etc? What's the plan if the Yes vote prevails? Will Salmond and his team sit round a table and say, "Right, um, what do we do now?"

No plan. Nothing has been agreed but I'm on the Sunseeker website right now choosing which yacht I'm going to order in the event of a Yes vote. I can't decide between a Lambourghini or a Ferrari either - perhaps both because there'll be plenty of room at the castle.

YIMan

cjcp wrote:

Is there no plan regarding pensions etc? What's the plan if the Yes vote prevails? Will Salmond and his team sit round a table and say, "Right, um, what do we do now?"

According to previous posters, yes, they sit down, scratch their heeds and work out what to do, then start negotiation from a position of zero strength.

tailwindhome

TailWindHome wrote:

To use Greg's divorce analogy, we've done "She''ll never leave", "You'll never make it on your own", "Our friends will take my side" now we're moving onto the bitter custody battles.

I hear Darling has moved to the "You can't come crawling back to me" phase

tailwindhome

YIMan wrote:

Aberdeen_lune wrote:

It's our democratic right so well all just have to wait and see. The negotiations won't be easy if it's a yes. They may take some time but I can assure you we won't be a pushover.

Not sure why anyone would be angry about another country exercising their democratic right.

You don't have any democratic rights in a country you are no longer part of, it's as simple as that.

It's like, you've built a house with some friends and all live there reasonably happily for a while, sharing the benefits that clubbing together to build a bigger, swankier house brings.

Then you decide that you want to live by yourself because the other four people in the house decided to paint the living room blue and you wanted it red.

At the point you leave the house, you might leave with your duvet, a few cups, your personal possessions and very definitely paying your remaining share of the bills and debts. You'll have to find/build another house all of your own!

What you can't do is start wheelbarrowing off bricks, windows, radiators and water pipes because you think it's your right. Those things are part of the fabric of living in the house - if you live in the house, you benefit from them - if you leave the house, you leave them behind.

There's no negotiating with the people still living in the house....the answer is "you decided to leave, good luck in the wide world but you can't start picking off the bits of the house you think you want and taking them with you". The people in the house will take your front door key off you and will start charging you rent if you decide you want to sleep there for a night or two.

Cool story
But that's not how it works.
The guy moving out owns 20% of the house. He gets that in whatever form he negotiates.

I presume the English will want to trade with an independent Scotland at some stage and therefore a prosperous Scotland is in the interests of the English.

meanredspider

TailWindHome wrote:

I presume the English will want to trade with an independent Scotland at some stage and therefore a prosperous Scotland is in the interests of the English.

Yes, the rest of the UK will need to get its whisky and raspberries from somewhere.

Being slightly more serious, there's about 10x more people in the rest of the UK than there is in Scotland. One of Scotland's greatest "exports" is tourism. It isn't very balanced. But it will, generally, be in the rest of the UK's interest to have a sound Scotland - except when it isn't. Agriculture, for instance, is already pretty contentious between the nations - as is fisheries. Scotland's negotiating power at the EU table will be significantly diminished on both of these points (and the rest of the UK will be less powerful too).

anonymousblackfg

YIMan wrote:

cjcp wrote:

Is there no plan regarding pensions etc? What's the plan if the Yes vote prevails? Will Salmond and his team sit round a table and say, "Right, um, what do we do now?"

According to previous posters, yes, they sit down, scratch their heeds and work out what to do, then start negotiation from a position of zero strength.

Not quite zero but apart from 'we're not taking the debt' and taking back fastlane is there any other leverage? It just seems a mad point to start from.

tailwindhome

meanredspider wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

I presume the English will want to trade with an independent Scotland at some stage and therefore a prosperous Scotland is in the interests of the English.

Yes, the rest of the UK will need to get its whisky and raspberries from somewhere..

I presume you'll want to sell them stuff.

meanredspider

TailWindHome wrote:

meanredspider wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

I presume the English will want to trade with an independent Scotland at some stage and therefore a prosperous Scotland is in the interests of the English.

Yes, the rest of the UK will need to get its whisky and raspberries from somewhere..

I presume you'll want to sell them stuff.

From the Netherlands? Yes, probably

tangled_metal

Scary figures are that rUK's lost GDP when Scotland leaves, if a yes vote, would take about 3 years of reasonable growth to recover. That is the Scotsman's figures in an interesting article that I read last week. It was very reasonable and put paid to some of the worst of the better together scare stories but it still came up with the view that Scotland is better off staying in the union.

I'd seriously hunt down that article it's a good read if the referendum interests you. It was a link in a post on the other yes/no argument that on this site.

greg66_tri_v2.0

TailWindHome wrote:

meanredspider wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

I presume the English will want to trade with an independent Scotland at some stage and therefore a prosperous Scotland is in the interests of the English.

Yes, the rest of the UK will need to get its whisky and raspberries from somewhere..

I presume you'll want to sell them stuff.

Yeah. Because your typical Scot can always be relied upon to pay top dollar.

Less flippantly, iScotland will be outside the EU. Whether rUK is in or out, there will be import duties and excise duties on goods moving either way over the border. That won't help trade.

pblakeney

Greg66 Tri v2.0 wrote:

Less flippantly, iScotland will be outside the EU. Whether rUK is in or out, there will be import duties and excise duties on goods moving either way over the border. That won't help trade.

Is that not precisely why the Yes campaign are asking for smooth and quick negotiations prior to May 2016?
Remember that if there is a yes vote then independence will not start on the 19th of September.
If it happens then I hope they can be adults about it as it is in everyone's interest for it to be a smooth transition but I fear that there will be childish petty arguments as have already been alluded to in this forum. That will not help anyone regardless of the "sod them" attitude.
This is interesting times regardless of the outcome, I think that British politics have been affected for a generation at least.