2012 Tour De France Spolier Thread

london-red

pitchshifter wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

pitchshifter wrote:

Gilbert has a dodgy wrist after hitting a dog today... Is that the Belgians out the running ?

Was never in the running TBH.

Sagan is favourite.

Really? Say he goes in a group with 2 laps to go, are they going to tow him to the line? I think not.. Team GB will also get more help compared to the worlds.

This ^^

Wrath Rob

Great result today, we need another British stage win tomorrow to set up the hat-trick for Sunday.

rick_chasey

JZed wrote:

Bookies have Cavendish just ahead of Sagan.

Bet 365 seem to have Sagan at 8/1- worth a flutter.

I'd imagine there's A LOT of money riding on Cav at UK bookies ATM.

pitchshifter

Wrath Rob wrote:

Great result today, we need another British stage win tomorrow to set up the hat-trick for Sunday.

That sounds absurd when you read it... This is going to take a while to sink in.

pitchshifter

Sagan, Chava and Cancellara over the top with 30 seconds, now that would make an exciting final 40k!

rick_chasey

pitchshifter wrote:

Sagan, Chava and Cancellara over the top with 30 seconds, now that would make an exciting final 40k!

Chavanel's got bronchitus atm - doubt he'll start.

pitchshifter

Rick Chasey wrote:

pitchshifter wrote:

Sagan, Chava and Cancellara over the top with 30 seconds, now that would make an exciting final 40k!

Chavanel's got bronchitus atm - doubt he'll start.

Has he though ? Rumour in the OPQS camp is that he was faking it...

rjsterry

Rick Chasey wrote:

BigMat wrote:

Rick, how are you rating Cav's Olympic prospects at the moment? He seems to be coming out of the Tour with good form at least.

Or everyone else in the Tour has worse form.

I still think he'll get dropped far enough back on the boxhill loops that he won't stay in, but I've been saying that since we knew the route.

I'm not sure if it's better or worse for Cav that Boonen won't be in it.

Few guys over in pro-race reckon the 60km flat run in will work well enough in Cav's favour given the other 4 team mates are a shoo-in for a 100km TTT. When the Belgians saw the course they figured it'd be too tough for any pure sprinter to survive - and an in form Boonen would manage.

We shall see.

I certainly saw a noticeable selection with one lap during the test event. It'll also be tailwind on the way in .

I'm surprised Box Hill makes that much of a difference to be honest. It's a pretty gentle slope for the Downs, and not that high either. It doesn't even qualify as a 4th cat.

pitchshifter

rjsterry wrote:

I'm surprised Box Hill makes that much of a difference to be honest. It's a pretty gentle slope for the Downs, and not that high either. It doesn't even qualify as a 4th cat.

Depends how fast they go though, 9 times at 30km/h will more than string things out..

clarkey cat

why, when creating the route, did the Olympic organisers (who are presumably British) not just make the route a 200km flat route to suit Team GB?

pitchshifter

clarkey cat wrote:

why, when creating the route, did the Olympic organisers (who are presumably British) not just make the route a 200km flat route to suit Team GB?

They did, then the UCI said NO!

clarkey cat

I can imagine the negotiations:

GB Olympic - okay, one ascent of Dark Hill

UCI - No - 15 ascents of Winterfold.

GB - meet you in the middle?

rjsterry

So 9x Box Hill = 22km / 1116m of climbing (roughly 5% gradient, pfft), but with several km of downhill in between each ascent. Hmmm.

rick_chasey

rjsterry wrote:

So 9x Box Hill = 22km / 1116m of climbing (roughly 5% gradient, pfft), but with several km of downhill in between each ascent. Hmmm.

Box hill has very similar stats to the Poggio in Milan San Remo, only straighter.

Same length, same climb, same width road.

Cav's never gotten over that one with the first group, and only once has he gotten over near enough to get back on the decent. Now sure, that's after almost 290km, but that's only once.... then again, he has 60km to get back if he's dropped only on the last ascent.

If he gets dropped on the, say, 7th time round, then he's having problems and I doubt he'll get back.

After all, everyone knows if they take Cav to the line, they lose. That's why he's been dropped so much earlier in M-SR since his victory.

Like I said, it hangs in the balance, but the brits won't be able to control it for 260km like they did in the worlds.

It's an interesting set up.

rjsterry

Isn't all that - the stuff about the Poggio - pre-weight loss. I reckon the chances to get back on Box Hill would be quite good as the rest of the lap is easy swooping downhill bends - get your line right and you can really thunder down there.

rick_chasey

You've also got to remember how narrow box hill is.

The run in is on a big wide road which turns into a very narrow little section so the teams will all be sprinting to get position into the bottom. Arrive at the bottom in 50th place and you'll be a good 30 seconds behind the leader getting to the top - and that's if there's no crash - which there was in the olympic test event which held up, amongst others Boonen - and that group never caught back on in the 60km drag back to the Mall.

It's quite a classic-y style road. Should be good.

rjsterry

Rick Chasey wrote:

You've also got to remember how narrow box hill is.

The run in is on a big wide road which turns into a very narrow little section so the teams will all be sprinting to get position into the bottom. Arrive at the bottom in 50th place and you'll be a good 30 seconds behind the leader getting to the top - and that's if there's no crash - which there was in the olympic test event which held up, amongst others Boonen - and that group never caught back on in the 60km drag back to the Mall.

It's quite a classic-y style road. Should be good.

Not forgetting of course that they've taken out the speed bumps and resurfaced it (surely the terrible road surface is half the fun of the Surrey Hills).

rick_chasey

rjsterry wrote:

Isn't all that - the stuff about the Poggio - pre-weight loss. I reckon the chances to get back on Box Hill would be quite good as the rest of the lap is easy swooping downhill bends - get your line right and you can really thunder down there.

Sure, but chasing back on 3 or 4 times is going to be costly.

jedster

Just watched the ITV highlights. Cav's sprint :shock: :shock: Left Sagan and Goss for dead.
The interview with Roche was pretty funny - kinda just saw this blur, was that Cav?

Imagine what he'd have done if he hadn't been out of form

CiB

The reaction from Sanchez was the best, when Cav jumped him & Roche in the final blitz and Sanchez just sat up and waved his hand at Mr Manx with the definitive "what's the ......ing point?" gesture.

Priceless. 8)

daviesee

CiB wrote:

The reaction from Sanchez was the best, when Cav jumped him & Roche in the final blitz and Sanchez just sat up and waved his hand at Mr Manx with the definitive "what's the ......ing point?" gesture.

Priceless. 8)

He was saying - "Where the feck did he come from? I was told his form was rubbish!".

DonDaddyD

I have been humbled.

jonny_trousers

Incredible!

SimonAH

Come on Bradley!!!!!!!!!!!!!

SimonAH

And Tejay just overhauled Cadel..... Where's your money going next time folks?

greg66_tri_v2.0

Holy crap! Wiggo's time at the second checkpoint!

cjcp

Seriously impressive.

SimonAH

Class.

dhope

That was bloody impressive

EKE_38BPM

"We can start thinking about winning now" - Dave Brailsford.