TDF Stage 4 spoilers

andyp

Any speculation with regard to Contador assumes his form is there. From what we've seen so far, we've no evidence that it is. He's barely raced since the Giro, so may need a few more days of racing to get back up to racing speed.

I think he'll be happy today if he doesn't lose any more time, especially as the weather is against him too.

frenchfighter

Or stage 7 TdF9.

LangerDan

For some reason I keep thinking of Steegmans uphill sprint in the wet in P-N in 2008.
(Mind you, he's going even worse in 2011 than Boonen)

Abdoujaparov

Climbbybike reckons 2.21 km at 6.5 per cent:

[img]http://www.climbbybike.com/profile/Mûr-de-Bretagne_profile.jpg[/img]

Reckon Contador will go too early and get caught by a few - not just Gilbert.

iainf72

Inrng does a good take on it

http://inrng.com/2011/07/the-spin-stage-4/

It'll be someone like Horner.

Cumulonimbus

van de Walle is the first to quit the race. He was the OPL guy who crashed on stage 1 but still came back and rode on the front a lot.

Le Commentateur

frenchfighter wrote:

Or stage 7 TdF9.

Yes I was thinking the same thing. In a tricky situation he doesn't like playing poker, waiting until the final week, but has a history of grabbing time early. In 09 it was to put the lock on Armstrong early.

Pross

FFS Frenchie, why do you keep going on about "lucky GC contenders" and mechanicals? Bertie won last year on the back of attacking Schleck when he had a mechanical and I seem to recall back then that you didn't think it was an issue. You can't have it both ways, the GC contenders made their own luck on Saturday by staying out of trouble and Bert then suffered from having a relatively weak TT team on Sunday.

LangerDan

I liked the comment on Cyclingnews live feed about the GP Plouay (and the Worlds) in 2000 -

"A stylish triumph from then Italian champion Michele Bartoli in 2000. That win made him favourite for the Worlds little over a month later, but his race would end with fourth place and a Colnago bike flying through the Italian pit area in Plouay after a fit of pique..."

Millar will never have that sort of effortless style - lobbing a Felt over a barrier isn't in the same league.

dave_1

Can Millar handle this gradient??wish he could pull on yellow jersey today. I hit it in a bunch of 80 odd riders, 20 of us over the top...it isn't a big ring climb. We had a descent off it to Yffiniac and sprinted it out in a velodrome like PR does

inkyfingers

I think Contador will try something but Gilbert will win. I think there will be some small time gaps in GC; Evans, Contador and maybe Schleck could gain time over the big diesels like Kloden, Leipheimer, Wiggins etc. Unless they soft pedal up it (very unlikely with Gilbert around) then Evans will surely be in yellow tonight, which could be a problem, but probably not as BMC are unlikely to be worried if a break went and he loses it again in the next few days.

frenchfighter

Pross wrote:

FFS Frenchie, why do you keep going on about "lucky GC contenders" and mechanicals? Bertie won last year on the back of attacking Schleck when he had a mechanical and I seem to recall back then that you didn't think it was an issue. You can't have it both ways, the GC contenders made their own luck on Saturday by staying out of trouble and Bert then suffered from having a relatively weak TT team on Sunday.

Meritocracy. Whether that is how things work or not. Meritocracy.

Very important to understand that Contador did not attack him after he errored then cannot fix a chain... Andy attacked, Contador jumped to follow and continued along with the other GC riders.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_6s0EvAgUos
Im not discussing it further.

frenchfighter

Tks for the infos Dave

LangerDan

Dave_1 wrote:

Can Millar handle this gradient??wish he could pull on yellow jersey today. I

Can't see Millar handling it better than 20 or 30 other riders, several of whom are breathing down his neck on GC. His only hope would be from a small group.

dave_1

frenchfighter wrote:

Tks for the infos Dave

Yes, was a long time back Frenchie. Not a sprinters climb. Blijlevens blew bad that day :shock:

dave_1

LangerDan wrote:

Dave_1 wrote:

Can Millar handle this gradient??wish he could pull on yellow jersey today. I

Can't see Millar handling it better than 20 or 30 other riders, several of whom are breathing down his neck on GC. His only hope would be from a small group.

what Andyp was saying earlier, is right..but Contador will have been stung bad by the time loss and also Guimard's comments on his detachment will have hurt too, so maybe something irrational by Contador is on today just out of ego and hurt

No_Ta_Doctor

Riis on Danish TV saying it was pretty much up to Contador's judgement at the time if he tried to win a few seconds to day, though looked a bit cagey. So expect the true champion to attack if A. Schleck punctures... ;-)

No_Ta_Doctor

LangerDan wrote:

I liked the comment on Cyclingnews live feed about the GP Plouay (and the Worlds) in 2000 -

"A stylish triumph from then Italian champion Michele Bartoli in 2000. That win made him favourite for the Worlds little over a month later, but his race would end with fourth place and a Colnago bike flying through the Italian pit area in Plouay after a fit of pique..."

Millar will never have that sort of effortless style - lobbing a Felt over a barrier isn't in the same league.

You really can't beat Colnago for style

Doobz

Tejay Van Garderen might do well today. pitty I never picked him on the PTP

FJS

Dave_1 wrote:

LangerDan wrote:

Dave_1 wrote:

Can Millar handle this gradient??wish he could pull on yellow jersey today. I

Can't see Millar handling it better than 20 or 30 other riders, several of whom are breathing down his neck on GC. His only hope would be from a small group.

what Andyp was saying earlier, is right..but Contador will have been stung bad by the time loss and also Guimard's comments on his detachment will have hurt too, so maybe something irrational by Contador is on today just out of ego and hurt

I think Millar's only hope is that the big guns will look at each other too much on the first steep kilometer, and won't be able to make any real gaps in the less steep final km. If that's the case there could be a (small) group sprint with Millar hanging in there - but given Gilbert's ambition, and whole range of other punchy climbers wanting to have a go, it's pretty unlikely.

afx237vi

Cav should go for the sprint again today, what with him having no chance at the finish. Hopefully the commissaires have been out with their paint brushes to paint some lanes on the road...

dave_1

FJS wrote:

Dave_1 wrote:

LangerDan wrote:

Dave_1 wrote:

Can Millar handle this gradient??wish he could pull on yellow jersey today. I

Can't see Millar handling it better than 20 or 30 other riders, several of whom are breathing down his neck on GC. His only hope would be from a small group.

what Andyp was saying earlier, is right..but Contador will have been stung bad by the time loss and also Guimard's comments on his detachment will have hurt too, so maybe something irrational by Contador is on today just out of ego and hurt

I think Millar's only hope is that the big guns will look at each other too much on the first steep kilometer, and won't be able to make any real gaps in the less steep final km. If that's the case there could be a (small) group sprint with Millar hanging in there - but given Gilbert's ambition, and whole range of other punchy climbers wanting to have a go, it's pretty unlikely.

it's not a technical approach so if Millar hits in on the front row, maybe?? His Tour of Flanders form in 2010 would maybe see him take yellow today

disgruntledgoat

frenchfighter wrote:

Pross wrote:

FFS Frenchie, why do you keep going on about "lucky GC contenders" and mechanicals? Bertie won last year on the back of attacking Schleck when he had a mechanical and I seem to recall back then that you didn't think it was an issue. You can't have it both ways, the GC contenders made their own luck on Saturday by staying out of trouble and Bert then suffered from having a relatively weak TT team on Sunday.

Meritocracy. Whether that is how things work or not. Meritocracy.

Very important to understand that Contador did not attack him after he errored then cannot fix a chain... Andy attacked, Contador jumped to follow and continued along with the other GC riders.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_6s0EvAgUos
Im not discussing it further.

So hang on... Meritocracy means Contador can do whatever he wants but when the boot is on the other foot all the other GC contenders should sit up and wait for him, because he's better than they are?

In the olden days missed gear shifts were the signal for an attack. Where doesn this stuff stop, with race being run on paper so as not to inconvinience anyone?

Contador dodn't get himself to the fron tquickly enough and caught out by a crash, hardly unheard of on the first stage of teh Tour. He didn't crash himself, he lost time due to poor positioning and a loss of concentration from himself, his team or his directeur. In the KMs leading up the split you could seee Leopard, BMC, Sky, Lampre getting their leaders out of trouble. Evans was at it yesterday too.

The only leaders to miss out were Gadret, Sanchez and Contador.

frenchfighter

Dave_1 wrote:

Guimard's comments

That was interesting reading

Pross

frenchfighter wrote:

Pross wrote:

FFS Frenchie, why do you keep going on about "lucky GC contenders" and mechanicals? Bertie won last year on the back of attacking Schleck when he had a mechanical and I seem to recall back then that you didn't think it was an issue. You can't have it both ways, the GC contenders made their own luck on Saturday by staying out of trouble and Bert then suffered from having a relatively weak TT team on Sunday.

Meritocracy. Whether that is how things work or not. Meritocracy.

Very important to understand that Contador did not attack him after he errored then cannot fix a chain... Andy attacked, Contador jumped to follow and continued along with the other GC riders.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_6s0EvAgUos
Im not discussing it further.

I'll obviously be talking to myself as you say you won't discuss it further but on Saturday the race was very much on, the bunch were flat out when the first crash occurred. I don't see why they were any more obliged to slow up than Bertie was. It appears that your ideas about honour etc. vary depending which side of the divide your favoured riders find themselves. Why was Bertie one of the few GC riders affected by the first crash? Probably because all the others were well forward to minimise the risk of that sort of thing happening, why was Bertie hanging around in the middle / rear of the bunch?

dave_1

frenchfighter wrote:

Dave_1 wrote:

Guimard's comments

That was interesting reading

it was, I really wonder if Contador is mentally broken after reading it..his leaving the chase to Euskatel, am sure Contador will have been hurt by it and from such a strategist as Guimard

No_Ta_Doctor

Just seen a slightly tubby Rolf Sørensen cycle up for Norwegian TV
It's definitely got some fairly steep bits on, but being dead straight will keep any attacks in sight.

frenchfighter

disgruntledgoat wrote:

.

1min20 is a HUGE amount of time to lose due to someone crashing in front of you. NOTHING due to lack of talent or skill. He was rider 40-70 or so which isnt bad even if it isnt perfect.

I dont expect them to wait but to drill it is not cool.

A lot of other top 10 potential riders lost out.

If they beat him up the mountains I can accept their win, otherwise no. I wish they rode the Giro...he would have demolished these riders.

TheStone

I'm I the only one that can see Hushovd keeping Yellow?

I expect Gilbert and maybe Contador getting a small gap, but only Evans is a danger for the GC tonight.

I think Contador will try. He has time to make up and I'm not sure Schleck is ready to defend yet. He looks like he'll peak later in the tour.

Interesting start.

RichN95.

frenchfighter wrote:

1min20 is a HUGE amount of time to lose due to someone crashing in front of you. NOTHING due to lack of talent or skill. He was rider 40-70 or so which isnt bad even if it isnt perfect.

I dont expect them to wait but to drill it is not cool.

A lot of other top 10 potential riders lost out.

If they beat him up the mountains I can accept their win, otherwise no. I wish they rode the Giro...he would have demolished these riders.

If, during the TTT it had poured with rain in the later teams (like Leopard) but not the earlier ones (like Saxo) would you be whinging about how it wasn't fair and nothing to due with talent and skill? No, you'd be gloating about 'justice being done' or some other crap.

Sport isn't fair and 'sh*t happens'. And that's the truth of the matter.