TDF Stage 4 spoilers

dave_1
dave_1 Posts: 9,512
edited July 2011 in Pro race
Have ridden this one, it's a 39x21climb and goes straight up without bends and it's a nice straight run onto the climb but was a bit narrow back then.

Contador will do them on this one..can see Gilbert being the only 1 to pass him
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKBacb2V ... ata_player
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Comments

  • pb21
    pb21 Posts: 2,171
    Dave_1 wrote:
    Have ridden this one, it's a 39x21climb and goes straight up without bends and it's a nice straight run onto the climb but was a bit narrow back then.

    Contador will do them on this one..can see Gilbert being the only 1 to pass him

    What are the vital stats of the climb?
    Mañana
  • DaveL
    DaveL Posts: 188
    I'd go for Gilbert, with it being his birthday :)

    Dave
    Strava
  • dave_1
    dave_1 Posts: 9,512
    pb21 wrote:
    Dave_1 wrote:
    Have ridden this one, it's a 39x21climb and goes straight up without bends and it's a nice straight run onto the climb but was a bit narrow back then.

    Contador will do them on this one..can see Gilbert being the only 1 to pass him

    What are the vital stats of the climb?

    15% gradients,
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKBacb2V ... ata_player
  • LangerDan
    LangerDan Posts: 6,132
    PROFILKMS.jpg
    'This week I 'ave been mostly been climbing like Basso - Shirley Basso.'
  • graeme_s-2
    graeme_s-2 Posts: 3,382
    Could Evans do well on this sort of finish?

    Maybe not as well as Contador, but better than some of the other GC/Podium/Top-10 contenders?
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Graeme_S wrote:
    Could Evans do well on this sort of finish?

    Maybe not as well as Contador, but better than some of the other GC/Podium/Top-10 contenders?

    Absolutely.
    _
  • smithy21
    smithy21 Posts: 2,204
    I reckon Evans will be in yellow tonight whether he wants to be or not as he will have to go with Bertie.
  • graeme_s-2
    graeme_s-2 Posts: 3,382
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Graeme_S wrote:
    Could Evans do well on this sort of finish?

    Maybe not as well as Contador, but better than some of the other GC/Podium/Top-10 contenders?

    Absolutely.
    Funny - when I first started following the Tour and reading these forums Evans was generally criticised for being a boring wheel sucker and now he's one of the most aggressive and exciting riders out there.

    A change in attitude from him, or a change in the enhanced abilities of the rest of the peloton?
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Graeme_S wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Graeme_S wrote:
    Could Evans do well on this sort of finish?

    Maybe not as well as Contador, but better than some of the other GC/Podium/Top-10 contenders?

    Absolutely.
    Funny - when I first started following the Tour and reading these forums Evans was generally criticised for being a boring wheel sucker and now he's one of the most aggressive and exciting riders out there.

    A change in attitude from him, or a change in the enhanced abilities of the rest of the peloton?

    Both.

    Evans has always been pretty good at ramps.
    _
  • wobblerthe1st
    wobblerthe1st Posts: 18
    Sammy Sanchez says he targeted this stage beofre the race and needs to make up time if he has any GC aspirations, not sure he's explosive enough though
  • Ron Stuart
    Ron Stuart Posts: 1,242
    pb21 wrote:
    Dave_1 wrote:
    Have ridden this one, it's a 39x21climb and goes straight up without bends and it's a nice straight run onto the climb but was a bit narrow back then.

    Contador will do them on this one..can see Gilbert being the only 1 to pass him

    What are the vital stats of the climb?

    According to the offical profile it's around 10% between 2km -1km kite then 5% between red kite and finish. However I'm sure that is anything but exact.

    Gilbert first and Evans second again. Millar will go too early and miss the yellow. (maybe) :wink:
  • pb21
    pb21 Posts: 2,171
    OK not too dissimilar to the Mur de Huy, a bit easier I suppose, so expect Gilbert, Evans, Contador on the podium.

    Be interesting to see if Contador really goes for so time and if Gilbert can better him, hope so...
    Mañana
  • dave_1
    dave_1 Posts: 9,512
    Contador could take 15 seconds back, maybe 20 seconds but no more. Gilbert will pip him though
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKBacb2V ... ata_player
  • Cleat Eastwood
    Cleat Eastwood Posts: 7,508
    Dave_1 wrote:
    pb21 wrote:
    Dave_1 wrote:
    Have ridden this one, it's a 39x21climb and goes straight up without bends and it's a nice straight run onto the climb but was a bit narrow back then.

    Contador will do them on this one..can see Gilbert being the only 1 to pass him

    What are the vital stats of the climb?

    15% gradients,

    but depending on where you read its average is between 6.5 and 8%, i think it'll be a walk in the park for them as it was in 2008
    The dissenter is every human being at those moments of his life when he resigns
    momentarily from the herd and thinks for himself.
  • graeme_s-2
    graeme_s-2 Posts: 3,382
    Think this could be quite an exciting finish. There are 17 riders within 5 seconds of Thor on GC, so there's a definite opportunity for a mad grab for the yellow jersey. Apart from Evans, I could imagine EBH, Goss, Cancellara, Hincapie, and G would all have the potential to gain 4 or 5 seconds on Hushovd and get themselves into yellow if they timed their attack correctly.

    I suppose some of those riders will be ruled out as they'll be busy looking after the GC contender in their team.
  • Ron Stuart
    Ron Stuart Posts: 1,242
    pb21 wrote:
    OK not too dissimilar to the Mur de Huy, a bit easier I suppose, so expect Gilbert, Evans, Contador on the podium.

    Be interesting to see if Contador really goes for so time and if Gilbert can better him, hope so...

    Could be Contador may loose more time as today there will be rain showers and cross winds a feature of this stage. The final climb isn't very long and there shouldn't be much of a time difference between the punchy climbers. This is a dangerous stage made more so by the weather we could see crashes and splits.

    http://www.weather-forecast.com/locatio ... sts/latest
  • dave_1
    dave_1 Posts: 9,512
    Cleat Eastwood wrote:
    Dave_1 wrote:
    pb21 wrote:
    Dave_1 wrote:
    Have ridden this one, it's a 39x21climb and goes straight up without bends and it's a nice straight run onto the climb but was a bit narrow back then.

    Contador will do them on this one..can see Gilbert being the only 1 to pass him

    What are the vital stats of the climb?

    15% gradients,

    but depending on where you read its average is between 6.5 and 8%, i think it'll be a walk in the park for them as it was in 2008

    fair point, but hopefully with it finishing at the top of the Mur, it will break up a bit more than in 08 where it was mid stage hill.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKBacb2V ... ata_player
  • milton50
    milton50 Posts: 3,856
    Dave_1 wrote:
    Contador could take 15 seconds back, maybe 20 seconds but no more. Gilbert will pip him though

    Really? I can't see it myself.
  • milton50
    milton50 Posts: 3,856
    It should be a pretty exciting finish with so many puncheurs looking for the stage win and a dozen or so others who will fancy taking the yellow jersey from Thor. But it looks as though it's 10% for only 1km and then 5% for the last 1km. I can't see most of the GC contenders losing time to Contador over that kind of climb.
  • disgruntledgoat
    disgruntledgoat Posts: 8,957
    Will Berto be wanting to go deep for a potential gain of 15s? Are his team strong enough for an elbows out fight in rain and wind to get him in position for it too?
    "In many ways, my story was that of a raging, Christ-like figure who hauled himself off the cross, looked up at the Romans with blood in his eyes and said 'My turn, sock cookers'"

    @gietvangent
  • FJS
    FJS Posts: 4,820
    The Mur de Huy is steeper, but even there Gilbert could ride away this year. It'll be interesting to see whether he can do the same when all the GC climbers are fitter than in April. Among the GC riders it'll be mostly psychological; gaps shouldn't be more than a handfull of seconds.
  • No_Ta_Doctor
    No_Ta_Doctor Posts: 14,654
    Milton50 wrote:
    Dave_1 wrote:
    Contador could take 15 seconds back, maybe 20 seconds but no more. Gilbert will pip him though

    Really? I can't see it myself.

    Contador taking 15 seconds or Gilbert pipping him?

    The latter seems likely.
    Warning No formatter is installed for the format
  • dave_1
    dave_1 Posts: 9,512
    Milton50 wrote:
    Dave_1 wrote:
    Contador could take 15 seconds back, maybe 20 seconds but no more. Gilbert will pip him though

    Really? I can't see it myself.

    maybe, memory of mine had faded then..so long ago..defo did this climb. Contador looked not bad on Mur De Huy a few years back. Anyway, Gilbert 1st probs
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKBacb2V ... ata_player
  • FJS
    FJS Posts: 4,820
    5 man break: Izagirre (Euskaltel), Erviti (Movistar), Kadri (AG2R), Roy (FDJ), Hoogerland (Vacansoleil)

    Lotto will get the responsibility to get them back early today - not too much incentive for Garmin
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    disgruntledgoat wrote:
    Will Berto be wanting to go deep for a potential gain of 15s? Are his team strong enough for an elbows out fight in rain and wind to get him in position for it too?

    The mountains are 9 days away. He can afford an effort today.
    _
  • dave_1
    dave_1 Posts: 9,512
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    disgruntledgoat wrote:
    Will Berto be wanting to go deep for a potential gain of 15s? Are his team strong enough for an elbows out fight in rain and wind to get him in position for it too?

    The mountains are 9 days away. He can afford an effort today.

    maybe Contador will be impetuous this time as that 1 miin 40 gap is a bit much and media questions might provoke him to try a little reminder today? maybe wishful thinking though
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKBacb2V ... ata_player
  • Le Commentateur
    Le Commentateur Posts: 4,099
    I imagine it being like that one in the Giro that Petacchi won: There'll be several attempted attacks where riders go too early and get pulled back and the winner will emerge in the last 100 metres.
    Un uomo solo al commando
  • FJS
    FJS Posts: 4,820
    Cunego?
  • No_Ta_Doctor
    No_Ta_Doctor Posts: 14,654
    Milton50 wrote:
    It should be a pretty exciting finish with so many puncheurs looking for the stage win and a dozen or so others who will fancy taking the yellow jersey from Thor. But it looks as though it's 10% for only 1km and then 5% for the last 1km. I can't see most of the GC contenders losing time to Contador over that kind of climb.

    Agree there, though the weather will probably play a major role. If the main GCs are all well positioned at the foot then I don't see much happening there but that's far from certain today.
    Warning No formatter is installed for the format
  • frenchfighter
    frenchfighter Posts: 30,642
    Classic Gilbert ramp. If he does it in the big ring like in the Vuelta that will be incredible.

    Contador said:

    “a complicated finale, very tense, because the Mur-de-Bretagne is a pretty tough hill, ideal for Gilbert, and it’s likely that he’ll get a repeat victory. I’ll be there to see how I do at the finish.” Alberto sees as a no-go the idea of a result tomorrow like the one at Tropea in the Giro, when he launched a surprise move on his rivals one day before his first victory on Etna. “This is different; they’ve mentioned to me that it’s a very good road. The surprise factor is quite a bit less than what there was in the Giro.”

    I hope he destroys them for the sake of it comes in 2nd with these lucky GC riders suffering a mechanical.

    As for Contador being willing to take time, one he needs to and two, remember Giro stage 8
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4LdMURv__y8
    Contador is the Greatest

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