Too early for a Tour thread?
Comments
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your thoughts gentlemen on what part Linus Gerdermann will play in this years tour?
Im hoping he will be used to go up the road in breakaways should Andy need some help later in stages....
Always liked his aggressive have a go attitude.0 -
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If i had to put a fiver on somebody not being there after a week, it would be on Kloden getting busted im afraid
I think thats a safer bet than Frank falling off
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Rick Chasey wrote:I too have a question -
Any bets (for honour) on who will not make it to the first weekend?
Christian Vande Velde. He's the outstanding performer in this field - last year he did the Giro and Tour, but didn't manage to make it to either Italy or France.Twitter: @RichN950 -
Sorry to sound like a boring Sky fan but I genuinely think that Wiggins at 25/1 is a decent each way bet. They have a good chance at winning the TTT and he seems to be in good ITT form as well so he has a shot at gaining a chunk of time on people like Gesink, V den Broek and Basso outside of the mountains.
Gesink is probably the other each way value. His team seem set on nothing other than getting him as high up the GC as possible.0 -
Milton50 wrote:Sorry to sound like a boring Sky fan but I genuinely think that Wiggins at 25/1 is a decent each way bet. They have a good chance at winning the TTT and he seems to be in good ITT form as well so he has a shot at gaining a chunk of time on people like Gesink, V den Broek and Basso outside of the mountains.
Gesink is probably the other each way value. His team seem set on nothing other than getting him as high up the GC as possible.
Gesink will do well if he gets to Paris....0 -
That's only true in the same way that it's true for all the other GT contenders (i.e. he won't come 65th). Gesink has finished 3 of the 4 grand tours he's entered, and the one he abandoned hardly revealed some worrying frailty.Rick Chasey wrote:Milton50 wrote:Sorry to sound like a boring Sky fan but I genuinely think that Wiggins at 25/1 is a decent each way bet. They have a good chance at winning the TTT and he seems to be in good ITT form as well so he has a shot at gaining a chunk of time on people like Gesink, V den Broek and Basso outside of the mountains.
Gesink is probably the other each way value. His team seem set on nothing other than getting him as high up the GC as possible.
Gesink will do well if he gets to Paris....0 -
avoidingmyphd wrote:
That's only true in the same way that it's true for all the other GT contenders (i.e. he won't come 65th). Gesink has finished 3 of the 4 grand tours he's entered, and the one he abandoned hardly revealed some worrying frailty.Rick Chasey wrote:Milton50 wrote:Sorry to sound like a boring Sky fan but I genuinely think that Wiggins at 25/1 is a decent each way bet. They have a good chance at winning the TTT and he seems to be in good ITT form as well so he has a shot at gaining a chunk of time on people like Gesink, V den Broek and Basso outside of the mountains.
Gesink is probably the other each way value. His team seem set on nothing other than getting him as high up the GC as possible.
Gesink will do well if he gets to Paris....
I dunno, I always feel he's a bit of a liability when it comes to positioning, and that gets found out more in the tour. I remember a year ago he was saying he prefers the bigger mountain stages mainly because the positioning occurs more naturally.0 -
Alberto Contador 8/13
Andy Schleck 2/1
Cadel Evans 25/1
Ivan Basso 25/1
Bradley Wiggins 28/1
Robert Gesink 28/1
Frank Schleck 33/1
Samuel Sanchez 33/1
Jurgen Van Den Broeck 50/1
Levi Leipheimer 50/1
Jani Brajkovic 66/1
Andrea Kloden 80/1
Christopher Horner 80/1
Roman Kreuziger 100/1
Alexander Vinokourov 125/1
Carlos Sastre 125/1
Ryder Hesjedal 125/1
Christian Vandevelde 150/1
Joaquin Rodriguez 150/1
Damiano Cunega 200/1
Edvald Boasson Hagen 200/1
Nicholas Roche 200/1
Peter Sagen 200/1
http://www.sportsbookgurus.com/Contador is the Greatest0 -
afx237vi wrote:I'd be surprised if Martin is top 100.
But good luck anyway
Lol...
Hope I have the last laugh 0 -
I think betting without contador has some decent value.
got gesink at 25s and vdb at 40s,worth a punt at those odds.both with hills.PTP winner 2015.0 -
Top tip, as appealing as 200/1 sounds, don't bet on Peter Sagan.
J-Rod at 150 is a good bet eacj way0 -
TakeTheHighRoad wrote:Top tip, as appealing as 200/1 sounds, don't bet on Peter Sagan.
J-Rod at 150 is a good bet eacj way
Sagan and Rodriguez should have the same odds - a million to 1. Neither are riding the Tour.Twitter: @RichN950 -
RichN95 wrote:TakeTheHighRoad wrote:Top tip, as appealing as 200/1 sounds, don't bet on Peter Sagan.
J-Rod at 150 is a good bet eacj way
Sagan and Rodriguez should have the same odds - a million to 1. Neither are riding the Tour.
Sastre looks a steal at 150/1 - he's won it before you know 0 -
It would be good if posters stated whether the odds they got for their bets were for winner, podium or top ten, as all bets appear possible.
As for the accuracy of the betting odds, Martin has said for ages his preparation is aimed at a top ten placing, Euskatel have said they definitely want a podium place this time, and several cycling websites tip Frank rather than Andy for a podium place.
I know there is a difference between ambitions/ideas and reality, but my impression of UK bookmakers is that they go on previous success/reputation, not current ability.
As example, form doesn’t suggest Basso warrants his (acc to frenchfighter post) odds, while I suppose Leipheimer might feel his should be at least similar to Wiggins’ odds.0 -
knedlicky wrote:It would be good if posters stated whether the odds they got for their bets were for winner, podium or top ten, as all bets appear possible.
I know there is a difference between ambitions/ideas and reality, but my impression of UK bookmakers is that they go on previous success/reputation, not current ability.
As example, form doesn’t suggest Basso warrants his (acc to frenchfighter post) odds, while I suppose Leipheimer might feel his should be at least similar to Wiggins’ odds.
You notice any lack of Bookmakers on the High Street? Trust me, they get it right an awful lot more than they get it wrong. I really don't know what the turnover for them is on cycling, and certainly a few may make money on the smaller books they don't necessarily have such expertise in, but at some point you'll get burnt. In terms of UK you have to remember they're running a book, so if they get £10,000 on Wiggins and £10 on Contador you'll get some prices that don't make sense to you as an individual, but to them make perfect sense.0 -
dougzz wrote:... you have to remember they're running a book ...
Quite, the odds pretty much reflect they money they've received in bets. It's why England are always amongst the favourites to win the World Cup.0 -
Hesjedal looks a good bet for top-ten. Does anyone see a reason for him to do worse than last year? Team merger issues not in his favour perhaps?0
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Had a closer look at the profiles.
Anyone else think it's going to be similar to last year?
Good first week.
Beyond dull 2nd week.
GC battle in week 3 over good stages becomes dull and processional?0 -
Rick Chasey wrote:Had a closer look at the profiles.
Anyone else think it's going to be similar to last year?
Good first week.
Beyond dull 2nd week.
GC battle in week 3 over good stages becomes dull and processional?
You can say that about GT parcours. It's the riders that make the race. Even the weather can be a bigger factor than the actual route.
Everyone raved about the 2011 route - but that was very processional, while 2010 Giro excitement owed a lot to the 50 man break on a seemingly dull transitional stage.Twitter: @RichN950 -
RichN95 wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:Had a closer look at the profiles.
Anyone else think it's going to be similar to last year?
Good first week.
Beyond dull 2nd week.
GC battle in week 3 over good stages becomes dull and processional?
You can say that about GT parcours. It's the riders that make the race. Even the weather can be a bigger factor than the actual route.
Everyone raved about the 2011 route - but that was very processional, while 2010 Giro excitement owed a lot to the 50 man break on a seemingly dull transitional stage.
That's all very well and true, but it's rubbish for spurious predictions a week or so before the event! :P0 -
It's the Tour. The odds are very high it will be a fairly dull affair.
[Ducks]Fckin' Quintana … that creep can roll, man.0 -
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Some very good each way options J Rod at 150/1, Cunego and Roche at 200/1, VdB at 50/1. They probably all offer better value than Wiggins.0
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Rick Chasey wrote:iainf72 wrote:It's the Tour. The odds are very high it will be a fairly dull affair.
[Ducks]
Tend to agree.
Though I do think something that would be considered quite good > above average, feels plenty more exciting because it's the Tour.
Yep. The tour is allowed to be a bit boring because it is the tour, a boring giro on the other hand.............0 -
The fact that Contador is riding leaves me feeling slightly indifferent this year. ASO might not have been able to stop him but Contador might have at least had the class to see that his participation is potentially ruinous to the sport's biggest event. Anyway, the big question for me is how many pairs of pants to pack for 27 days on the road?-- Dirk Hofman Motorhomes --0
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Vino shooting for a podium.Contador is the Greatest0
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Think someone is in form
Contador is the Greatest0
