Too early for a Tour thread?

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  • lucybears
    lucybears Posts: 366
    knedlicky wrote:
    andyp wrote:
    I see America's next big thing, 33 year old Tom Danielson, will be making his Tour debut.
    He is? He's not in the provisional starter list I've seen, supposedly up to date as of this morning.

    Although having said that, maybe the list isn't up to date, because it lists Swift for the TdF whereas I've read he's taking part in the Tour of Austria, which starts the same weekend.
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  • milton50
    milton50 Posts: 3,856
    At what point does a higher place on the classification overtake the KOM jersey? Would a top 5 finish be better than say coming 8th but with the jersey?

    I'd say 8th on the GC but winning the polka dot jersey is better than finishing 5th on the GC. That's why it might suit riders like Gesink or Van Den Broek. As an outside bet I'd say Joaquin Rodriguez Oliver (I assume he's riding?) because in the Dauphine he showed fantastic form on the climbs.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,159
    andyp wrote:
    I see America's next big thing, 33 year old Tom Danielson, will be making his Tour debut.

    What are the odds that he crashes and breaks a collarbone before the race even starts? :twisted:

    Is this the best candidate for the annual 'surprise Garmin rider in the top ten'?

    (Although it wouldn't be that much of a surprise as he's had three top tens in the Vuelta)
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,159
    Milton50 wrote:
    Joaquin Rodriguez Oliver (I assume he's riding?)

    He's not, apparently. Katusha are going for an all Russian team. It's a shame.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • jonginge
    jonginge Posts: 5,945
    Milton50 wrote:
    At what point does a higher place on the classification overtake the KOM jersey? Would a top 5 finish be better than say coming 8th but with the jersey?

    I'd say 8th on the GC but winning the polka dot jersey is better than finishing 5th on the GC. That's why it might suit riders like Gesink or Van Den Broek. As an outside bet I'd say Joaquin Rodriguez Oliver (I assume he's riding?) because in the Dauphine he showed fantastic form on the climbs.
    Don't think J-Rod is riding. Aren't katusha fielding an entirely russian team?

    Edit: yes, they are: http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/katusha ... -de-france
    FCN 2-4 "Shut up legs", Jens Voigt
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  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,799
    [quote="Milton50" Joaquin Rodriguez Oliver (I assume he's riding?) because in the Dauphine he showed fantastic form on the climbs.[/quote]

    J Rod showed good form because he'd been busting his balls in Italy for three weeks beforehand.
    _
  • pat1cp
    pat1cp Posts: 766
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    No tA Doctor wrote:
    Thanks Rich.

    Difficult to see if that will make the KoM more competitive. The real problem is surely that all the top climbers are riding for GC. I suppose if one or more of them gets a sniff of it then that might change, but with only the first six getting points then they're even more likely to be looking for a podium...


    That is indeed the point. They're looking for a system which would actually reward the best climber - so in all likelihood the winner will come from the top 5, especially considering the course.

    You wonder if a very good climber who has one stinker might not worry too much - he might then be given enough leash to get away on the climbs alongside the GC guys and steal a few points.

    That's been a tactic in the past, come in 20mins down in the first week and that then enables you to head up the road when the going gets tough. Virenque did it and I'm pretty sure Rasmussen did too.

    Jurgen VDB I reckon, and I'm sure he'd rather that than the 5th he got last year.
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  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,799
    pat1cp wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    No tA Doctor wrote:
    Thanks Rich.

    Difficult to see if that will make the KoM more competitive. The real problem is surely that all the top climbers are riding for GC. I suppose if one or more of them gets a sniff of it then that might change, but with only the first six getting points then they're even more likely to be looking for a podium...


    That is indeed the point. They're looking for a system which would actually reward the best climber - so in all likelihood the winner will come from the top 5, especially considering the course.

    You wonder if a very good climber who has one stinker might not worry too much - he might then be given enough leash to get away on the climbs alongside the GC guys and steal a few points.

    That's been a tactic in the past, come in 20mins down in the first week and that then enables you to head up the road when the going gets tough. Virenque did it and I'm pretty sure Rasmussen did too.

    Jurgen VDB I reckon, and I'm sure he'd rather that than the 5th he got last year.

    The points change mean a lone breakaway is less likely to get you the big points unless the break goes on to win it.. It's all going to be about first rider to the top of the final climb.
    _
  • FJS
    FJS Posts: 4,820
    pat1cp wrote:
    Jurgen VDB I reckon, and I'm sure he'd rather that than the 5th he got last year.
    No way.
    Both Jurgen van den Broeck and Gesink have been targetting their whole season to theTdF GC, aiming for the podium, or at least a top 5 place - and Rabobank has built the whole team around Gesink. That's not for the polka dot jersey.

    Whatever we may like, rider behaviour the last couple of years shows the polka dot ranks way below a top 5 in the GC, even top 10. Van den Broeck or Gesink might end up in a situation where the polka dot is a consolation prize, but it's not what they'll aim for
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 40,686
    I'm wondering if the points race changes will lead to the sprinters teams sending people out into breaks to sweep up the points from the mid level sprinters. I can't see the main stage contenders going all out for intermediate points but equally they won't want them going to other green jersey contenders.

    KoM will probably be someone like Gesink or VdB as I can see them having an off day that puts them out of overall contention.

    Yellow will surely be Bertie unless he has emptied his tank at the Giro not anticipating being at the Tour. I'm hoping this is at least partially true and leads to a close race. Failing that I think Rabo might have a rider right up there as they seem to have the most GT strength in depth. I just hope Levi doesn't make the podium!
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,159
    Pross wrote:
    I'm wondering if the points race changes will lead to the sprinters teams sending people out into breaks to sweep up the points from the mid level sprinters. I can't see the main stage contenders going all out for intermediate points but equally they won't want them going to other green jersey contenders.

    It'll be interesting to see how the tactics play out for those intermediate sprints. I can see a situation where, for the definite sprinters stages, the 'big four' (Cav, Petacchi, Farrar, Greipel) arrange some sort of ceasefire. Or perhaps at the beginning of such a stage some of the sprinter's teams make it known that they'll immediately chase down any break without enough riders in it.

    I can also envisage Goss being used as an intermediate sprints lead-out man, so Cav can get as many points as possible without he or Renshaw making much effort.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,799
    Another interesting option would be for guys like Cav on hill/uphill finishes, to go all out for the intermediate.
    _
  • Gingerflash
    Gingerflash Posts: 239
    Contador will win in a hugely tedious manner, like in the Giro. He will almost coast up the HC climbs, without breaking a sweat, putting a couple of minutes at a time into his rivals, then will ride the TTs at Cancellara speed.
    Some will praise it as the greatest ride ever, others will just scoff and turn off the TV.

    I expect Andy Schleck to have a shocker, although I very much hope he doesn't. If there was an earlier TT, then I'd expect to see him lose a load of time there and go after the polka jersey. As it is, I expect Contador to win the polka dot as well as the Yellow.

    I think Frank Schleck might do better than expected by many. Wiggins will be alright too, top ten likely I think. Gesink will be pretty good, Evans too, Basso awful.

    Green jersey and sprinters? Couldn't care less to be honest, though it does look like the new system will make for less exciting racing on the flats with the big sprint teams holding everything together all day long, at least to the 1/2 or 2/3 way intermediate, rather than letting the breaks go.
  • afx237vi
    afx237vi Posts: 12,630
    andyp wrote:
    I see America's next big thing, 33 year old Tom Danielson, will be making his Tour debut.

    What are the odds that he crashes and breaks a collarbone before the race even starts? :twisted:

    He did me proud in the Tour de Suisse so I am now officially a Tom Danielson fan. Alright he only came 9th, but beggars can't be choosers when you're sitting in 46th place in PTP GC. 5 points is 5 points.

    Seriously though, I'd like to see him do a good ride in the Tour. A stage win or a top 10 overall is entirely possible.
  • avoidingmyphd
    avoidingmyphd Posts: 1,154
    On the Green Jersey point:
    The important change is that the points at the intermediate sprint go so far down the field. It used to be three riders, now it's fifteen. That's a lot of points on days with a 3 or 4 man break.
    In the past by the time the peloton reached the intermediate sprint the points had all been hoovered up by the breakaway. Now, there will still be points available when the peloton rolls through. So expect to see a genuine intermediate sprint between the real sprinters. If you don't sprint mid stage, you're handicapping your green jersey challenge because the others certainly will. Overall though, the fastest sprinter should win green - either because they're so far ahead of the others that stage wins accumulate them enough points to not bother with the intermediates OR because it's close overall and they race twice a day and the points show them to be the fastest in the race.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,159
    Gingerflash wrote:
    Green jersey and sprinters? Couldn't care less to be honest, though it does look like the new system will make for less exciting racing on the flats with the big sprint teams holding everything together all day long, at least to the 1/2 or 2/3 way intermediate, rather than letting the breaks go.

    However, I have the opposite view. I think the sprinters teams (by which I really mean HTC) will want quite a big break to go ahead to take the bulk of the IM points thereby maximising the emphasis on the stage result.

    At any IM sprint, Cav can probably take 4th without really trying. If the group is all together the spread of points is 20,17,15,13 - so he stands to lose seven points. However, if a break of six is up the road the spread is 9,8,7,6, - so he only stands to lose three points.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • Abdoujaparov
    Abdoujaparov Posts: 642
    Pross wrote:
    KoM will probably be someone like Gesink or VdB as I can see them having an off day that puts them out of overall contention.

    I'm all for changing the mountains classification so it's not won by calculating breakaway specialists, but there's a danger it could just become a consolation prize for GC contenders who have a disaster in the first week.

    Almost 'whoever has the worst luck wins'.

    To be fair though, the points change probably won't have as big an effect as we think.
  • FJS
    FJS Posts: 4,820
    Interesting aspect of all this is that there are only four or five stages this TdF where Cav and similar sprinters have a realistic chance of winning - because so many 'flat' stages have an uphill finish or hilly finale this year. But that does mean they can go full out for the halfway sprint, behind a break or not, without ruining their finish sprint chances.
  • inkyfingers
    inkyfingers Posts: 4,400
    I think it's a bit sad that the polka dot jersey is very much the 4th best jersey to be wearing and is either a consolation prize or a way for a little known breakaway specialist to suddenly get some glory. The problem is that because the tour is so often decided in the mountains that the climbers are more focussed on a top 10 in GC than they are on the polka dot jersey. It's just doesn't seem to be that much of a prize anymore, whereas if you are a sprinter/rouleur then the green jersey is a big deal. Part of the problem is that in recent years more often than not the polka dot jersey battle occurs before the TV coverage goes live, whereas the green and yellow jersey action usually occurs at the end of the race. Plus we've seen some proper close battles for the green jersey in recent years and are likely to see another good battle this year.

    Anyway, my predictions are as follows:

    Contador to win
    Evans to be on the podium
    Leopard Trek to have a bad tour
    Wiggins to go top 10 and EBH to win a stage
    Cav to win Green and 4 stages
    Gilbert to win 2 stages
    "I have a lovely photo of a Camargue horse but will not post it now" (Frenchfighter - July 2013)
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,799
    inkyfingers wrote:
    I think it's a bit sad that the polka dot jersey is very much the 4th best jersey to be wearing and is either a consolation prize or a way for a little known breakaway specialist to suddenly get some glory. The problem is that because the tour is so often decided in the mountains that the climbers are more focussed on a top 10 in GC than they are on the polka dot jersey. It's just doesn't seem to be that much of a prize anymore, whereas if you are a sprinter/rouleur then the green jersey is a big deal. Part of the problem is that in recent years more often than not the polka dot jersey battle occurs before the TV coverage goes live, whereas the green and yellow jersey action usually occurs at the end of the race. Plus we've seen some proper close battles for the green jersey in recent years and are likely to see another good battle this year.
    That's why they've changed the points system, to make it better reflect the title of 'king of the mountains'.
    _
  • inkyfingers
    inkyfingers Posts: 4,400
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    inkyfingers wrote:
    I think it's a bit sad that the polka dot jersey is very much the 4th best jersey to be wearing and is either a consolation prize or a way for a little known breakaway specialist to suddenly get some glory. The problem is that because the tour is so often decided in the mountains that the climbers are more focussed on a top 10 in GC than they are on the polka dot jersey. It's just doesn't seem to be that much of a prize anymore, whereas if you are a sprinter/rouleur then the green jersey is a big deal. Part of the problem is that in recent years more often than not the polka dot jersey battle occurs before the TV coverage goes live, whereas the green and yellow jersey action usually occurs at the end of the race. Plus we've seen some proper close battles for the green jersey in recent years and are likely to see another good battle this year.
    That's why they've changed the points system, to make it better reflect the title of 'king of the mountains'.

    I appreciate that, but it will only work if the riders are actually interested in winning it. It's too early to judge how effective the new system will be, but my feeling is that it will just mean that Contador goes home with the polka dot as well as the yellow jersey.
    "I have a lovely photo of a Camargue horse but will not post it now" (Frenchfighter - July 2013)
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,799
    inkyfingers wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    inkyfingers wrote:
    I think it's a bit sad that the polka dot jersey is very much the 4th best jersey to be wearing and is either a consolation prize or a way for a little known breakaway specialist to suddenly get some glory. The problem is that because the tour is so often decided in the mountains that the climbers are more focussed on a top 10 in GC than they are on the polka dot jersey. It's just doesn't seem to be that much of a prize anymore, whereas if you are a sprinter/rouleur then the green jersey is a big deal. Part of the problem is that in recent years more often than not the polka dot jersey battle occurs before the TV coverage goes live, whereas the green and yellow jersey action usually occurs at the end of the race. Plus we've seen some proper close battles for the green jersey in recent years and are likely to see another good battle this year.
    That's why they've changed the points system, to make it better reflect the title of 'king of the mountains'.

    I appreciate that, but it will only work if the riders are actually interested in winning it. It's too early to judge how effective the new system will be, but my feeling is that it will just mean that Contador goes home with the polka dot as well as the yellow jersey.

    If he's the best climber, then what's the problem?
    _
  • ms_tree
    ms_tree Posts: 1,405
    Tommy to go on a break (we all shout c'mon Tommy) and perhaps will win but may do it another day maybe Bastille day(did I read somewhere baby due around this time so will do a celebration).
    Usual French suspects in breaks Dumulin, Fedrigo, Casar.
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  • squired
    squired Posts: 1,153
    For me, the thing that ruined the pokladot jersey was when they stopped awarding world ranking points for it. Back before the inception of the ProTour you were awarded points that were equivalent to being somewhere in the top 10 on GC (I can't remember the exact equivalent placing). There were also world ranking points for people who placed high up in the mountains contest.

    It should be pointed out though that the green jersey contest also lost world ranking points. Having said that, by the mid-point of the race the green jersey competition often only has a couple of riders still competing. If there were world ranking points for something like the top 5 riders that might turn into an even better contest as well.
  • bearfraser
    bearfraser Posts: 435
    Who,s is going to be the first dope head & which team to be sent home first ??


    Contador to win and have it taken away as a previous doper
  • takethehighroad
    takethehighroad Posts: 6,654
    There's a few stages with the sprint point either in the first 30k (mountain stages) or the last 30k, sprint stages, where the sprinters team will almost certainly control it.

    I think it will be interesting, that's for certain
  • StefanP
    StefanP Posts: 429
    A few early stats on the Tour:

    from here if you want more info

    Heaviest: Tom Boonen
    Tallest: Michael Schär
    Shortest: Jesus Hernandez
    Lightest: Amets Txurruka
    "Skinniest": Tom Danielson
    "Fattest": Baden Cooke

    Obivously not all teams have been confirmed, so those are just the confirmed ones!
  • StanwaySteve62
    StanwaySteve62 Posts: 702
    C'mon guys join in, it's easy to do
    http://www.bikeradar.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=12785128
  • takethehighroad
    takethehighroad Posts: 6,654
    @itvcyling wrote:
    July 14th. Live from 1200. Highlights 1900. Chasing Legends 2000

    Happy flipping days
  • verylonglegs
    verylonglegs Posts: 3,957
    An hour long program on Radio5 tonight from half eight about the TdF. Not sure how good it will be to us serious followers conisidering it's the BBC but just thought I'd mention it.

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