Stage 19 - Bourgoin-Jallieu > Aubenas SPOILER
Here we go, a calm day before the riders storm Ventoux. Or maybe not? There is a second category climb near the finish and it could allow some of the GC contenders to gain some time.
Although I suspect if this happens we're more likely to see changes to the top-20, not the top-5. Even then, the final climb itsn't too hard, it is wide and hard to launch a surprise move. You'd climb it in the big ring.
From the top the some riders might be able to look north and glimpse the Eiffel tower. The descent is a wide road and not technical. It will be hard to surprise someone. Note the final metres are uphill... but not the rock climb that the profile above suggests.
It's a lottery today. I see a break going but trying to pick a winner is near impossible. The first hour should be mental, the pressure on the riders will be huge as it's effectively the last chance for many teams to win a stage, tomorrow might allow a break to go early but surviving up Ventoux seems harder and many will expect the inevitable Columbia sprint train to deliver Cavendish on the Champs-Elysees.
Several teams have drawn a blank so far in the Tour, so if a break goes this afternoon without Rabobank, Cofidis, FDJ, Quick-Step or Milram, expect riders to be chased down. I'm sure the likes of Garmin, Lampre and Silence-Lotto will also want to place a man up front.
The stage starts at 12.50 CET/ 11.50 BST
Although I suspect if this happens we're more likely to see changes to the top-20, not the top-5. Even then, the final climb itsn't too hard, it is wide and hard to launch a surprise move. You'd climb it in the big ring.
From the top the some riders might be able to look north and glimpse the Eiffel tower. The descent is a wide road and not technical. It will be hard to surprise someone. Note the final metres are uphill... but not the rock climb that the profile above suggests.
It's a lottery today. I see a break going but trying to pick a winner is near impossible. The first hour should be mental, the pressure on the riders will be huge as it's effectively the last chance for many teams to win a stage, tomorrow might allow a break to go early but surviving up Ventoux seems harder and many will expect the inevitable Columbia sprint train to deliver Cavendish on the Champs-Elysees.
Several teams have drawn a blank so far in the Tour, so if a break goes this afternoon without Rabobank, Cofidis, FDJ, Quick-Step or Milram, expect riders to be chased down. I'm sure the likes of Garmin, Lampre and Silence-Lotto will also want to place a man up front.
The stage starts at 12.50 CET/ 11.50 BST
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Comments
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The Climbs:
Côte de Culin 2.6 km, avg. 5.6 %, Catégorie 4
Côte de la forêt de Chambaran 3.1 km, avg. 6.4 %, Catégorie 4
Col de l'Escrinet 14.0 km, avg. 4.1 %, Catégorie 20 -
It's a stage for a breakaway to succeed I think. Everyone is knackered now and with the Ventoux stage tomorrow and a Cat 2 climb before the finish I can't see any of the sprinters teams having the incentive to chase.0
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Yes, a breakaway is likely. A tougher category 2 climb could have been an ideal scenario for Freire, and a Rabobank chance to safe their Tour a bit, but it's a very modest incline, and I don't think it's tough enough to shed Thor or even Cav. Still, also a chance for Thor to really seal his green jersey. There are 35 points on the Champs-Elysees, and just one puncture...0
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Evans in the early attacks. In a group with Millar and Kirchen0
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dam i knew i should have gone with barredo! c'mon LiQ pull them back"If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm0
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yessss roche got on ...stay in there lad"If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm0
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1 minute. Looks like this could be the group. 17 out front. Chavanel and Sanchez also there.0
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That's a very big group. And wonder whether everyone is happy with Bennati in there.
No Rabobank.....0 -
make that a group of 20. Maybe they've seen Bennati's form and thats the reason they arent worried?
I think Chavanel is best placed on GC, he's 27 minutes back so will be hoping to sneak up a few places.0 -
I count 3 Ag2r riders if it goes soft then someone is going to chase for team classement
will astana protect that lead?"If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm0 -
pulling it back..."If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm0
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WTF? I've just clicked on the live audio link on the Eurosport site so I can listen in the office, got some sqeaky voiced kid going on about diving instead. Grrr.......0
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According to cyclingnews.com the riders in the break are:
Cadel Evans (Silence-Lotto), Yaroslav Popovych (Astana), David Millar (Garmin), Kim Kirchen (Columbia), Jose Luis Arrieta, Nicolas Roche and Christophe Riblon (AG2R), David Arroyo, Luis-Leon Sanchez and Jose Ivan Gutierrez (Caisse d'Epargne), Leonard Duque (Cofidis), Simon Spilak (Lampre), Carlos Barredo and Sylvain Chavanel (Quick Step), Geoffrey Lequatre (Agritubel), Daniele Bennati (Liquigas), Stijn Vandenbergh and Nicolai Trussov (Katusha), Jonathan Hivert (Skil-Shimano) and Ruben Moreno (Euskaltel).
They have 2:22 on the peloton with 127 or the 178 km to go.Le Blaireau (1)0 -
The gap has remained more or less stable for 40 km or so. Rabobank wants a bunch sprint...0
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Less than 100k to go (2'50").
Not often we see so many riders (7) who are previous TdF stage winners in a group.
So, the big boys banking that today is the day for a breakaway to stick.Rich0 -
the break-away has fallen apart, and the gap with the peloton under 2 minutes. looks like either a bunch sprint, or the current 5 leaders staying away, Millar, Popo, Duque, Arrieta, Gutierrez. Duque by far the fastest.0
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If it goes to a bunch sprint Thor will do em over after some demon descending. I expect a few will fire off up the final climb to avoid that possibility.It's a little like wrestling a gorilla. You don't quit when you're tired. You quit when the gorilla is tired.0
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This break surely doomed0
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Does anyone have Cav for PTP?
when's the last time someone won 6 stages in one TdF?0 -
Leakygas and Lampre look v.interested in this0
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Knew i should've gone for my first thought Freire!!
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chriskempton wrote:Leakygas and Lampre look v.interested in this
I thought Bennati was in the break? Mind you, given his form, he wouldn't beat Stephen Roche in a sprint, let alone Nick.___________________
Strava is not Zen.0 -
calvjones wrote:chriskempton wrote:Leakygas and Lampre look v.interested in this
I thought Bennati was in the break? Mind you, given his form, he wouldn't beat Stephen Roche in a sprint, let alone Nick.
The break is done0 -
Duque in the lead - isn't that the badguy from Attack of the Clones :?:___________________________0
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Yah!
Paul's telling us all about the castles again!
Head Hands Heart Lungs Legs0 -
I reckon this climb bar the pace doesn't yoyo could allow cav to get through for the stage win today, he did manage the san remo but the short distance after the summit I guess he has to hope the pace isn't super quick and no one like thor breaks off the front.0
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13 km though... and people being shelled already.0
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If Cav makes it to the top of this climb with the selection I'll eat my hat.It's a little like wrestling a gorilla. You don't quit when you're tired. You quit when the gorilla is tired.0
