US Politics / Biden thread
Comments
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My labels are perhaps lacking. I meant 5- neutral, 0 -completely opposed, 10 strongly in favour.
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As a continuation of the unresolved tensions between the two wings of the Conservative Party, which has been going on since at least the repeal of the Corn Laws, yes.
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
Interesting cultural difference between the US and UK election coverage
The UK exit poll is announced as soon as the polls close and predict seat share/who the PM will be.
The US exit poll asks about the issues.
This was widely mocked on UK twitter, but as soon as the top issues were clear the call could have been made
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
I am semi numerate, so I'm only a 3 or 4 for VAT on school fees (i.e. I don't really care) and about a 9 on opposing Brexit (because objectively it's been a disaster that couldn't have been more poorly timed).
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That data point is not useful for my theory, so like any good amateur statistician, I will ignore it.
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From what I've read, the traditional Labour voters who voted for Brexit and then for Boris in 2019 to "get it done" were motivated to a large extent by a feeling that Labour had abandoned them in pursuit rich people (so long as they pay their taxes, obviously), immigration and being "good Europeans" etc, with the effect of this compounded by a feeling that they were ignored or insulted when they raised their concerns.
Insults etc. are great on social media or when made before a tame audience (about someone else) on the campaign trail. But you'll never insult anyone into agreeing with you.
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There do seem to be a few commentaries around that suggest society as a whole is not ready to be dragged along by wokeness, and that the rejection of the Democrats is something of a reaction to that.
I think you'd have to spend time there to know, to be honest, but it's an interesting theory (speaking as someone who watched the SNP tie itself in knots over identify politics and green issues, and rather fail to bring the electorate with them on those issues).
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Profiles on Labour strategist Morgan McSweeney have covered a lot of this ground
Getting back in touch with the voter they've 'abandoned'
The 'piss in the lift' story informative
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
Not sure if it matters if a cycling forum gives credence to him or not. The fact is he's an academic who represents views shared by many voting for populist parties. If you aren't willing to even think about what he says you have zero chance of understanding the motivations of populist voters.
[Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]1 -
He's not an academic. He was, but he flounced out because he can make more from monetised SubStack posts, tweets and GBN appearances and he didn't want to"serve the academic bureaucracy".
You're right: I am dismissive of him because the things he says about the city in which I live are demonstrably and obviously untrue. He's dishonest. I don't need fabricated 'evidence' to help me understand why some people like to be told comforting fairy tales about why they feel hard done by and why it's all the fault of 'them'. I also don't need fake statistics to explain why it's really easy to mobilise that sentiment into votes for political office. Grievance cultivation in a disadvantaged section of the population is nothing new.
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition1 -
Hate to say it, but if Trump did that, it would seem to be sensible. I realise that it would probably be predicated on enshrining a perma-majority for Republicans (or just Trumpubilcans), but I've not really understood why for national elections each state has completely independent systems and regulations.
Watching the legal chaos and complications for every election cycle in the US makes the UK system seem both 100x simpler and 100x less open to frivolous challenge. 30 million bits of paper (mostly) counted by the next morning, with easily auditable piles of paper.
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I don't disagree, I have no doubt that many Labour voters who voted Brexit (and no doubt some switched to Reform) did so as felt abandoned. My feeling though is they were motivated to vote by policies and desired outcomes that met their interests (as we all are when voting).
I am not convinced though that a key factor in their voting choices was being insulted by some idiot on social media. I think this is one of the theories that gets posited quite a lot, particularly with Trump voters, that people on the left mocking them is part of their motivation for voting Trump. I think the majority will be voting Trump regardless, although perhaps the insults just hardens their resolve. In saying this, I am also not dismissing people being patronising or ridiculing others as insignificant, it is definitely wrong to slag other people's democratic right to choose, even if you strongly disagree with their choice.
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A deeply depressing read from a writer I admire. It kind of makes me want to retreat to my mountains (with my new passport). At least, for now, the UK isn't in such a scary place though.
app.theneweuropean.co.uk/2024/11/07/where-the-darkness-prevails/content.html
"Trump’s triumph entrenches the MAGA movement once and for all and will turbocharge its future as a global franchise. It is a terrible blow to the cause of liberal democracy, the precious principles of pluralism, the rule of law.
There is no direction to history and sometimes things really are as bad as they look. I am reminded of General Corman’s words in Apocalypse Now: “There’s a conflict in every human heart, between the rational and irrational, between good and evil. And good does not always triumph. Sometimes, the dark side overcomes what Lincoln called ‘the better angels of our nature’”.
On Tuesday, in America, the darkness did prevail, in ways that will reverberate all over the planet for decades to come.
So: let us lean into the new reality, accept the scale of the task ahead and begin the long and painful work of renewal."
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"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]1 -
Was Guardian hack Owen Jones oversharing about consoling himself after the US election result?
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]1 -
If any of you have read Pinker's book 'Enlightenment Now' telling us how everything is getting better, you might afford yourself a wry grin, to match the one when you recall Fukuyama's 'The End of History'.
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I have thought about what he says. I think we need to understand why there's an audience willing to accept his lies.
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Did you crop that yourself?
IIRC, the next line reads: ...who voted for Trump because he was worried about inflation.
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
Populism will be the end of society as we know it. Simple explanation, the ultimate populist post would be "we will give you everything and tax you nothing". Complete and absolute bollocks but people would vote for it.
People get the government they deserve. The unfortunate fact is that U.S. government affects the whole World but the whole World does not get a vote.
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Nope, got it on WhatsApp and made me smile 🙂
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
😀
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]1 -
Maybe insults are a symptom of an "out of touch" political movement rather than a direct cause of said movement losing its core vote.
IIRC, the end of Boris Johnson started when he whipped his MPs to vote to give Owen Patterson a free pass after the Standards Committee had issued a damning report on Patterson. (Normally the House will vote to sanction anyone who is the subject of such a report, but Patterson was a friend of Bozo and so obviously deserved special treatment because he's special.) This went down very badly with the public, or at least those who weren't overt sycophants. Coincidentally or otherwise, the Partygate leaks started shortly afterwards, which finished Bozo off. Or rather the attempts to justify the parties finished him off. Whilst there were no direct insults to the voters, the "insult to the intelligence" of defending partying during an era where people couldn't attend funerals etc. alienated many.
Maybe the real issue that alienates folk is the politicians' and media supporters' refusal to contemplate that they might have got things wrong, with insults being just one of many unhelpful reactions to being challenged.
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You're on fire!
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WhatsApp groups seem to be quite active this week...
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
There are few things more rich in terms of sources of amusement (albeit sometimes dark humour) than an election that was supposed to be a close one turning out to be one way traffic. Like football, "it's the hope that kills you".
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I think a big problem with him is that he identified the potential problems with extremist populist parties and identified ways to address them here in 2011 https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/r0911_goodwin.pdf and now seems to have decided that there's money to be made in saying "no, actually, they're right".
He's decided to assert that all the power lies with a group of people who aren't a group and are working to enact the views of the most extreme of that non-existent group, and completely ignores the impact of money.
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Akin to Harris, another good graceful speech by Biden.
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I have no doubt that people become alienated when they feel politician's have marginalised them and don't take their concerns seriously. More worringly, this creates the conditions for populists to flourish as they exploit people's dissatisfaction to promote their own agenda.
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Interesting when listening to commentators who are critical of the Democrat campaign. A lot of chat about how trying to make such a big issue of the Trans rights issues stuff backfired on them because ultimately, these things don’t matter as much as they think they do when it comes to wider concerns I.e. the economy/immigration. Interesting that people dismissed the Conservatives trying to make such a big deal of it during our election, but from their opposite viewpoint.
Also alarm bells were ringing when Harris was asked how she’d differ herself from the Biden administration and she basically said she wouldn’t change much. Which is crazy considering how unpopular he’s been in the last few years.
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If you can point me to the big deal Harris made of trans rights during the campaign, that would be helpful.
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