2024 Election thread
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"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0
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Autumn Statement went well
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
Reform at 10%, yikes.tailwindhome said:Autumn Statement went well
I'd be worried if I was labour that that 10% could easily shift to the Tories in the voting booth.0 -
I suspect a lot of reform potential voters are as sick of the Tories as the Labour voters.
Whether they can be scared into voting conservative due to the threat of Labour is a good question though.0 -
If LD's cannot outpoll Reform they need to rethink the whole strategy top to bottom.
It is not a great environment for moderate liberals but Christ alive there is more room than they are taking up by a long way.0 -
I suspect they'll do surprisingly well in leafy places where people are sick of Tories.rick_chasey said:If LD's cannot outpoll Reform they need to rethink the whole strategy top to bottom.
It is not a great environment for moderate liberals but Christ alive there is more room than they are taking up by a long way.
But again, that's reliant on people not bein so scared of a labour government that they vote conservative.
The lib Dems hardly have a coherent voice or message though. Or if they do, it's clearly not getting out.0 -
I wouldn't be surprised if the shift went the other way, people scared to say they would vote for Reform but in the quiet and anonymous voting both they would.rick_chasey said:
Reform at 10%, yikes.tailwindhome said:Autumn Statement went well
I'd be worried if I was labour that that 10% could easily shift to the Tories in the voting booth.0 -
The Libdems seem to be sitting this one out.Jezyboy said:
The lib Dems hardly have a coherent voice or message though. Or if they do, it's clearly not getting out.
Strange as the middle ground is ripe right now.The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
I wish more opinion polls were done based on the method elections are carried out. Having a national percentage is pretty irrelevant in understanding how it would relate to an actual parliament.0
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Pross said:
I wish more opinion polls were done based on the method elections are carried out. Having a national percentage is pretty irrelevant in understanding how it would relate to an actual parliament.
Indeed. I think the hatred of this lot of Tories will drive a lot of tactical voting, constituency by constituency. I'll wait to see what the most likely non-Tory is in East Devon... don't really care whether that's Labour, Lib Dem, or independent, as long as it's not loony right.0 -
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That's as maybe. They've filled the vacuum.First.Aspect said:
Anyone know where the Libdems are? Anyone sure they still exist?The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
FTFY.First.Aspect said:
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
There are three bordering constituencies they hold in SW London, that's about as close as they get to a stronghold just now. There'll be a few more in the same area after next year, they are definitely best placed to take some out into Surrey.pblakeney said:
That's as maybe. They've filled the vacuum.First.Aspect said:
Anyone know where the Libdems are? Anyone sure they still exist?
No idea what they are for really, other than what Labour now seem to stand for but for people who don't want to vote Labour and without the .
I think under proportional representation they wouldn't do much better these days.1 -
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Plus ca change, Rick. What would be interesting would be the same poll taken 10 or 20 years ago.
As my Dad used to say: if you're not a socialist by the age of 30 you haven't got a heart, if you're not a Tory by the age of 40 you haven't got a brain and if you haven't had a coronary by the age of 50 you're no son of mine.
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Cake is just weakness entering the body0 -
https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/how-britain-voted-1992
check out the stats here. The correlation is nowhere near linear like it is now.
In fact the 45-55 cohort was almost as Tory as the 65 plus.
And we know when gen they are 😉😉
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Slightly shocked by how poorly they are doing at the 50-64 range...
Well maybe not shocked because I think they've not managed a great deal over the past 13 years.
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You make this point repeatedly.
What is it, exactly? That younger people deserve more of a say?
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It’s less than 50% of the oldest cohort that plan on voting Tory (just over 50% if you chuck in Reform which is basically the same thing these days) and around 25% of the 50-64 which probably covers the oldies on here yet Rick talks as if it is the overwhelming majority of these age groups who vote that way and that they should all be punished for not doing things for his generation. He continually misses this point in his rants. What does he think that the half of the oldest parts of our population who aren’t planning on voting Tory could do to influence the situation?
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So lots of them have changed their minds and should bear no responsibility for how they voted in the past?
- Genesis Croix de Fer
- Dolan Tuono0 -
RC do you actually understand how democracy works?
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Have they? Rick has only posted voting intention so it’s hard to compare with what they’ve done previously. He has also repeatedly stated that this vote split on age is a new thing so presumably in the past fewer older people voted Tory?
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Just looked for 2019 and it was 57% of those aged 60-69 and 67% of over 70s. 2017 was nearly identical. In 2003 it was 40% of over 65s so it has definitely increased but it still seems harsh blaming the entire generation which is what I think is the point of most of those criticising him. If he walked into my choir rehearsal room and accused all the oldies of being Tories and would rate his chances of coming out in one piece!
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Politics is about competing interests and in FPTP, the system usually boils down those interests into one or two key interests.
20th C politics was really about competing socioeconomic interests - right v left, middle class (or an aspiration to be) and working class.
I am utterly convinced that is no longer the case and in the UK the competing interests are just age.
i think there are lots of reasons for that but the singular defining feature of the Tory policy is that it favours over 65s. @surrey_commuter thinkd they’re Miliband esq because of their tax and spend, but they do t have the social policy, either on regulation or on social security, unless it’s pensions.
Peopld think I am just hating on oldies for being old but it really isn’t an ageist thing - it is the political reality. Things like housing, cost of living etc, the problems people face all look very very different depending on their age.
The reason the political divide is on age is because , for whatever reason, the interests between the retired and working age are in conflict.
The housing problem is illustrative. Any solution that redresses the balance will hurt existing homeowners - and those arguments are always trotted out.
Dont forget retirees have higher income than working people - they have so much wealth working age people collectively cannot expect to have the same standard of living when they retire.
Retirees have no personal stake in climate change - at best they can be concerned for the welfare of their younger family members but they will never experience the brunt of it. So it goes on.
That is the political reality and I think too much of the current discourse is stuck in the habits of the old dividing line that doesn’t work anymore.
It sounds like it’s ageist but it is merely the political reality.
Ive decided the political weight and the battle in that dividing line has skewed so much to one side that I have basically become increasingly radicalised in redressing the balance.
I am no longer interested in “balanced” policy as that will never redress the balance sufficiently.
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You still seem to be assuming all retirees are equal. I suspect this is again a result of your own very narrow perspective on life. How many former working class pensioners do you actually know? I’m certain that not just me but also my elder (20s) daughter are financially better off than my retired parents. I think you also underestimate how much they care about the future of their own kids and grandkids. Whilst it may be flawed, due to living longer, I think that is why leaving an inheritance is so important to many.
If the policy of charging for GP appointments you were suggesting came into affect who do you think would be worse affected, the Tory voting millionaire pensioner living off a large pension from a cushy office career or the person who has voted Labour all their life and did a physical, menial job that relies nearly entirely on a state pension (and who may well have health issues resulting from that working life)? Your attitude was ‘f**k them all’, what had that second group done to deserve that?
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It's ageism, you're generalising about older age groups. You can try to justify it any way you like, it's still ageist.
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He's posted previous election breakdowns too. CBA to dig through and find them though.
- Genesis Croix de Fer
- Dolan Tuono0
