Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2023 *** Spoiler thread ***
Comments
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Hi-tech version of this for peace of mind?
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
It's fairly easy to explain providing certain assumptions are true regarding his power figures. He has elite lactate clearance (like many CX riders), but a lower FTP (compared to tier 1 riders like Pogacar mainly but also Remco).
When tier 1 riders ride their threshold or lower VO2 max he is far into VO2 max and cracks.
His elite lactate rate allows him to recover quickly and he can bridge to tier 2/tier 3 riders or ride with such riders and then even attack or win the sprint.
I think he is quite similar to MvdP, just with much less power. MvdP has the same elite lactate clearance allowing him to attack repeatedly all the time, because he recovers quicker than the competition mostly and he can eventually crack them. Pidcock can probably do the same, but has the disadvantage that his very low weight and corresponding "lower" power makes the attacks mostly less lethal.
All of this is in addition to what I posted earlier regarding him having to ride at a higher percentage of his FTP for longer when the racing picks up.PTP Champion 2019, 2022 & 20230 -
I was put off by his lack of racing in classics so far and his relatively late descent from Teide. Obviously neither were an issue.Pross said:Was surprised how few went for Remco on PTP in what always looked like being a two horse race. A few late interlopers jumped on my bandwagon but at least I regain the points lost to most last week.
Twitter: @RichN950 -
From the way the race played out I don't think it's far fetched to assume Pogacar and Remco would have had a two-up sprint at the end, that Pogacar would have won, if he hadn't crashed.
Crashes happen and we will never know, but picking Pogacar was probably the correct play all things considered. It took a genius brain like @mididoctors to calculate happenstance into the equation!mididoctors said:When I looked at the weather forecast and starting list it was clear to me then yesterday pog would likely crash behind a double puncture pot holing honore and have to retire ...hence why I picked Remco.
PTP Champion 2019, 2022 & 20232 -
It's also realistic that with Pogacar on Remco's wheel or vice versa neither really commits and Pidcock hangs on and wins the sprint.[Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]0
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Doubt it tbh. Pogacar doesn't seem to hesitate. If he is willing to attack WVA and MvdP, he is definitely willing to attack Remco and Pidcock 32 km from the line and recover & sprint if it doesn't work.
Pogacar could also justifiably back his own sprint against Pidcock.PTP Champion 2019, 2022 & 20230 -
m.r.m. said:
Doubt it tbh. Pogacar doesn't seem to hesitate. If he is willing to attack WVA and MvdP, he is definitely willing to attack Remco and Pidcock 32 km from the line and recover & sprint if it doesn't work.
Pogacar could also justifiably back his own sprint against Pidcock.
I'm not arguing Pidcock would have won I'm arguing it's one of a number of realistic scenarios.
[Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]2 -
That seems..... unlikely. He was sitting in 2nd behind Remco. If he could stay there and nobody caught them he was good.rick_chasey said:
Sure but when the suggestion is that he deliberately got dropped to save his legs to race for second, there’s a gap he needs to bridge to be with the best, and I think we all agree he’s with the best sub 200km.No_Ta_Doctor said:For a guy that struggles with distance, that's a decent 2nd place in a huge, long race
Warning No formatter is installed for the format0 -
Damm right he isMad_Malx said:
Are you claiming credit for anyone that picked remco?Pross said:Was surprised how few went for Remco on PTP in what always looked like being a two horse race. A few late interlopers jumped on my bandwagon but at least I regain the points lost to most last week.
"If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm0 -
Or I got lucky .. YMMVm.r.m. said:From the way the race played out I don't think it's far fetched to assume Pogacar and Remco would have had a two-up sprint at the end, that Pogacar would have won, if he hadn't crashed.
Crashes happen and we will never know, but picking Pogacar was probably the correct play all things considered. It took a genius brain like @mididoctors to calculate happenstance into the equation!mididoctors said:When I looked at the weather forecast and starting list it was clear to me then yesterday pog would likely crash behind a double puncture pot holing honore and have to retire ...hence why I picked Remco.
"If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm1 -
Was said on the Cycling Podcast as "pretty sure" that was the case, if I was listening correctly.No_Ta_Doctor said:
That seems..... unlikely. He was sitting in 2nd behind Remco. If he could stay there and nobody caught them he was good.rick_chasey said:
Sure but when the suggestion is that he deliberately got dropped to save his legs to race for second, there’s a gap he needs to bridge to be with the best, and I think we all agree he’s with the best sub 200km.No_Ta_Doctor said:For a guy that struggles with distance, that's a decent 2nd place in a huge, long race
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If the argument is he is just [emphasis just ie not only] goes too deep trying to follow stronger riders rather than just runs out of glycogen how come he beats WvA at brab pil or wins demanding yet shorter stages of tdf in empiric fashion?m.r.m. said:It's fairly easy to explain providing certain assumptions are true regarding his power figures. He has elite lactate clearance (like many CX riders), but a lower FTP (compared to tier 1 riders like Pogacar mainly but also Remco).
When tier 1 riders ride their threshold or lower VO2 max he is far into VO2 max and cracks.
His elite lactate rate allows him to recover quickly and he can bridge to tier 2/tier 3 riders or ride with such riders and then even attack or win the sprint.
I think he is quite similar to MvdP, just with much less power. MvdP has the same elite lactate clearance allowing him to attack repeatedly all the time, because he recovers quicker than the competition mostly and he can eventually crack them. Pidcock can probably do the same, but has the disadvantage that his very low weight and corresponding "lower" power makes the attacks mostly less lethal.
All of this is in addition to what I posted earlier regarding him having to ride at a higher percentage of his FTP for longer when the racing picks up."If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm0 -
Pidcock said something about dropping back in his post race interview - I've not rewatched it but it was something like after he got dropped and instead of trying to chase back on the gradual descent waited for the group behind.
He did say it was a calculation - either if he didn't get back or got dropped again -can't remember which - he'd have nothing left and risk ending up off the podium. Pretty sure he didn't say he deliberately got dropped though - it was what to do after he was dropped.[Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]1 -
Pidders said in the post race interview (I'll paraphrase) that when Ev went away from him, he could either go all in try and hang on and potentially end up with nothing, or measure his effort, and try and take 2nd.
He went for the 2nd option, which proved to be the right one on the day - good to see his race craft maturing.Felt F70 05 (Turbo)
Marin Palisades Trail 91 and 06
Scott CR1 SL 12
Cannondale Synapse Adventure 15 & 16 Di2
Scott Foil 182 -
daniel_b said:
Pidders said in the post race interview (I'll paraphrase) that when Ev went away from him, he could either go all in try and hang on and potentially end up with nothing, or measure his effort, and try and take 2nd.
He went for the 2nd option, which proved to be the right one on the day - good to see his race craft maturing.
Learnt a lesson from amstrel ... He was lucky to hang on to 3rd there
"If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm2 -
Who dropped him harder ..pog or remco ?"If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm0
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mididoctors said:
Who dropped him harder ..pog or remco ?
Savage
(Didn’t he get the hunger knock in Flanders?)0 -
“Remco asked me for a turn, and I said no. He went full-gas and then I got dropped,” Pidcock said. “Remco was strongest in the end. I decided to wait and to try to get second. I still finished second, so I think that plan paid off.”
[Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]2 -
Yeah I think Pidders learnt from AGR where he went all in for the win, came up short and almost missed out on the podium altogether. Has to be said he looked very good when he bridged over to the Healy move and from that group he was always odds on to win the sprint.0
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Yes, I'll take a commision of 20% of their score as a sort of 'finder's fee' please.Mad_Malx said:
Are you claiming credit for anyone that picked remco?Pross said:Was surprised how few went for Remco on PTP in what always looked like being a two horse race. A few late interlopers jumped on my bandwagon but at least I regain the points lost to most last week.
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Tbf to pidders his ability to go the distance improved each monument.. rapid learning curve and adaptation . Looking forward to next year's spring classicsrick_chasey said:mididoctors said:Who dropped him harder ..pog or remco ?
Savage
(Didn’t he get the hunger knock in Flanders?)"If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm1 -
That sprint win against WVA could be more of an exception rather than the rule. Maybe he just had great legs that day or WVA was tired. Pogacar beat WVA in Montreal or Quebec in a sprint as well. That can always happen, but you wouldn't consider it the norm.mididoctors said:
If the argument is he is just [emphasis just ie not only] goes too deep trying to follow stronger riders rather than just runs out of glycogen how come he beats WvA at brab pil or wins demanding yet shorter stages of tdf in empiric fashion?m.r.m. said:It's fairly easy to explain providing certain assumptions are true regarding his power figures. He has elite lactate clearance (like many CX riders), but a lower FTP (compared to tier 1 riders like Pogacar mainly but also Remco).
When tier 1 riders ride their threshold or lower VO2 max he is far into VO2 max and cracks.
His elite lactate rate allows him to recover quickly and he can bridge to tier 2/tier 3 riders or ride with such riders and then even attack or win the sprint.
I think he is quite similar to MvdP, just with much less power. MvdP has the same elite lactate clearance allowing him to attack repeatedly all the time, because he recovers quicker than the competition mostly and he can eventually crack them. Pidcock can probably do the same, but has the disadvantage that his very low weight and corresponding "lower" power makes the attacks mostly less lethal.
All of this is in addition to what I posted earlier regarding him having to ride at a higher percentage of his FTP for longer when the racing picks up.
Pidcock's win on the Alpe came after his world class descent where he wasn't pushing it watts wise and made up all the time purely on technique. He reached the Alpe fairly fresh (for WT pro standards). Riding the Alpe then quickly ought to suit him at his weight. If the classics had longer mountains I'd expect him to perform better. His (possible) lack of absolute watts would be compensated somewhat by his low weight.
I don't see a contradiction in the reasoning.
The running out of glycogen is directly correlated to riding a higher percentage of his FTP for longer than the competition.
The having to go too deep and then logically cracking is directly correlated to his (potentially) lower FTP.
This is why having a higher FTP is the answer to most (but not all) questions in cycling.PTP Champion 2019, 2022 & 20230 -
You make a persuasive argument.m.r.m. said:
That sprint win against WVA could be more of an exception rather than the rule. Maybe he just had great legs that day or WVA was tired. Pogacar beat WVA in Montreal or Quebec in a sprint as well. That can always happen, but you wouldn't consider it the norm.mididoctors said:
If the argument is he is just [emphasis just ie not only] goes too deep trying to follow stronger riders rather than just runs out of glycogen how come he beats WvA at brab pil or wins demanding yet shorter stages of tdf in empiric fashion?m.r.m. said:It's fairly easy to explain providing certain assumptions are true regarding his power figures. He has elite lactate clearance (like many CX riders), but a lower FTP (compared to tier 1 riders like Pogacar mainly but also Remco).
When tier 1 riders ride their threshold or lower VO2 max he is far into VO2 max and cracks.
His elite lactate rate allows him to recover quickly and he can bridge to tier 2/tier 3 riders or ride with such riders and then even attack or win the sprint.
I think he is quite similar to MvdP, just with much less power. MvdP has the same elite lactate clearance allowing him to attack repeatedly all the time, because he recovers quicker than the competition mostly and he can eventually crack them. Pidcock can probably do the same, but has the disadvantage that his very low weight and corresponding "lower" power makes the attacks mostly less lethal.
All of this is in addition to what I posted earlier regarding him having to ride at a higher percentage of his FTP for longer when the racing picks up.
Pidcock's win on the Alpe came after his world class descent where he wasn't pushing it watts wise and made up all the time purely on technique. He reached the Alpe fairly fresh (for WT pro standards). Riding the Alpe then quickly ought to suit him at his weight. If the classics had longer mountains I'd expect him to perform better. His (possible) lack of absolute watts would be compensated somewhat by his low weight.
I don't see a contradiction in the reasoning.
The running out of glycogen is directly correlated to riding a higher percentage of his FTP for longer than the competition.
The having to go too deep and then logically cracking is directly correlated to his (potentially) lower FTP.
This is why having a higher FTP is the answer to most (but not all) questions in cycling.
Turning over WvA on that race profile though is quite the exception.
Ok to push back on you here
If most questions are answered by FTP what questions aren't and why ?"If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm0 -
Although I'm not gonna disagree with mrm here because he may well be right it is speculation. There are going to be differences in stuff like glycogen storage, rate of uptake from feeding during the race, fatigue of the nervous system and muscle fibres so the muscles just stop firing effectively etc and more besides - probably some of which is still not really understood even by the experts.[Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]1
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Didn’t he also out sprint WVA in the 2021 Amstel Gold.m.r.m. said:
That sprint win against WVA could be more of an exception rather than the rule. Maybe he just had great legs that day or WVA was tired. Pogacar beat WVA in Montreal or Quebec in a sprint as well. That can always happen, but you wouldn't consider it the norm.mididoctors said:
If the argument is he is just [emphasis just ie not only] goes too deep trying to follow stronger riders rather than just runs out of glycogen how come he beats WvA at brab pil or wins demanding yet shorter stages of tdf in empiric fashion?m.r.m. said:It's fairly easy to explain providing certain assumptions are true regarding his power figures. He has elite lactate clearance (like many CX riders), but a lower FTP (compared to tier 1 riders like Pogacar mainly but also Remco).
When tier 1 riders ride their threshold or lower VO2 max he is far into VO2 max and cracks.
His elite lactate rate allows him to recover quickly and he can bridge to tier 2/tier 3 riders or ride with such riders and then even attack or win the sprint.
I think he is quite similar to MvdP, just with much less power. MvdP has the same elite lactate clearance allowing him to attack repeatedly all the time, because he recovers quicker than the competition mostly and he can eventually crack them. Pidcock can probably do the same, but has the disadvantage that his very low weight and corresponding "lower" power makes the attacks mostly less lethal.
All of this is in addition to what I posted earlier regarding him having to ride at a higher percentage of his FTP for longer when the racing picks up.
Pidcock's win on the Alpe came after his world class descent where he wasn't pushing it watts wise and made up all the time purely on technique. He reached the Alpe fairly fresh (for WT pro standards). Riding the Alpe then quickly ought to suit him at his weight. If the classics had longer mountains I'd expect him to perform better. His (possible) lack of absolute watts would be compensated somewhat by his low weight.
I don't see a contradiction in the reasoning.
The running out of glycogen is directly correlated to riding a higher percentage of his FTP for longer than the competition.
The having to go too deep and then logically cracking is directly correlated to his (potentially) lower FTP.
This is why having a higher FTP is the answer to most (but not all) questions in cycling.
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1. Lactate tolerance
Some people have the ability to go longer or harder into VO2 max than they usually should be able to based off of their overall FTP. In a casual setting these are often the Strava KOM hunters. They are able to push super hard for 1-5 min. when targeting KOM's. These very same people very often (in my experience of riding) don't win many races, due to many other riders being stronger overall (among other reasons like technique, decision making etc.), but they can be incredibly good for those short bursts.
When you go into VO2 max or neuromuscular (sprints etc.) lactate builds up quickly until you can't perform anymore. Some people still build up that lactate at the same rate, but they have a higher tolerance or bigger bucket to fill with that lactate before their legs fail. Rowers are considered to have huge buckets and can build up incredible amounts of lactate before they fail to function.
2. Lactate clearance
Others could be building lactate at the same rate and have the same size bucket to fill up, but could have the ability to clear that lactate quicker than others. These riders can attack repeatedly (go into VO2 max or higher) and recover fast to do it again and again.
Not every light rider has this automatically. Those that don't - Quintana comes to mind, tend to be thought of as diesels (Heavier versions could be Dumoulin or Almeida from UAE currently). They just ride at same pace and try to not surge. Many lighter riders - prototypical climbers have this though, since they need to have some elite attributes when their raw power is lacking, in order to make it to the pro level in the first place.
3. Fat oxidisation
Some riders are just good at riding far below threshold forever. These riders tend to go more into the ultra distance marathons or riding. They are very efficient at lower intensities, though I'm not sure why riders with high FTP's couldn't also do this. They probably just don't bother.
All these systems are linked and you can't really look at them purely isolated, but that's what comes to mind for me immediately.
The elite of the elite will be great at almost all of these systems, but the exact mix will still differ and it's probably impossible to pinpoint the perfect mix. You can win in a myriad of ways, which makes cycling so exciting to watch!PTP Champion 2019, 2022 & 20230 -
So have we concluded that Pidcock can’t beat the big 4 (other than when he does)?3
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Cycling’s Andy Murray? I actually like Pidcock though and he’s got a long career ahead of him yet.Pross said:So have we concluded that Pidcock can’t beat the big 4 (other than when he does)?
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