Macroeconomics, the economy, inflation etc. *likely to be very dull*

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  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,786
    surrey_commuter said:

    briantrumpet said:

    Is the IMF a bunch of lefties?

    I have not been following this argument so would you mind telling me the explanation for why there has not been an explosion in corporate profits?

    Neither have I, but IMF seems to think they have.
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,506
    edited June 2023
    surrey_commuter said:

    briantrumpet said:

    Is the IMF a bunch of lefties?

    ...

    I have not been following this argument so would you mind telling me the explanation for why there has not been an explosion in corporate profits?
    It is an interesting question, but more so is where do the profits figures come from?
    A company will not record profits till after the end of the financial year, and there is a leeway of up to 9 months on that so figures for 2023 will not be available until 2024 and quite possibly 2025.

    Edit - The small print explains that they are just a guestimate, which renders the chart redundant.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    Less the case in the UK but the US is an earnings bonanza.
    _
  • mully79
    mully79 Posts: 904
    Watched the documentary 97% Owned on Netflix.
    Though I could cut the film length in half by removing unnecessary footage of protests, I found the concepts quite interesting. It's a well thought out game keeping the poor productive and poor.

    How do I start my own bank so I can print as much money as I like ?
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 22,031
    Can't remember which is the house price thread, but they're falling at the quickest rate for 12 years.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66130798
  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 8,154
    TheBigBean said:

    focuszing723 said:

    TheBigBean said:

    focuszing723 said:

    focuszing723 said:

    Why do you keep posting this?
    To remind myself near zero interest rates are not the historic norm.
    Are you quite forgetful by nature?
  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 8,154
    focuszing723 said:

    I don't want to see normal people who just want a home get caught up in negative equity.

  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 8,154

  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 8,154
    edited July 2023
    The only thing that kept crossing my mind was the supply/demand issue. Around my area there is a noticeable drop in estate agent "for sale signs" up.

    New car prices are going to have to drop too, people who buy them on drip will be hit by increasing IR's.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,599
    focuszing723 said:

    The only thing that kept crossing my mind was the supply/demand issue. Around my area there is a noticeable drop in estate agent "for sale signs" up.

    New car prices are going to have to drop too, people who buy them on drip will be hit by increasing IR's.

    I've been looking at available houses in my price range most days for the past year and the amount getting added each day has really dropped off in the last month or so.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    focuszing723 said:


    if you updated this chart it would strengthen your argument
  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 8,154
    surrey_commuter said:

    focuszing723 said:


    if you updated this chart it would strengthen your argument
    No, don't want to.
  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 8,154
    Pross said:

    focuszing723 said:

    The only thing that kept crossing my mind was the supply/demand issue. Around my area there is a noticeable drop in estate agent "for sale signs" up.

    New car prices are going to have to drop too, people who buy them on drip will be hit by increasing IR's.

    I've been looking at available houses in my price range most days for the past year and the amount getting added each day has really dropped off in the last month or so.
    Yeah, it's interesting. People staying put being sensible?
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,599
    The pricing is pretty messy too. There's some I look at and assume the estate agent had overdone it on the coke when valuing the property or are hoping that if they slap a high price on an OK house in a terrible area no-one will notice it is in a terrible area.
  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 8,154
    Pross said:

    The pricing is pretty messy too. There's some I look at and assume the estate agent had overdone it on the coke when valuing the property or are hoping that if they slap a high price on an OK house in a terrible area no-one will notice it is in a terrible area.

    Yep, I've seen the same thing happen from a couple of people I know who are trying to sell their homes to live (change in circumstances). The estate agent put's a high enticing figure on the place and the punters get enticed in. It's stupid to me as all people do is look on Rightmove and they know exactly the history of pricing on the house if available and/or the area.

    99.9% of products/services sell if the price is correct/realistic.


  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    focuszing723 said:

    Pross said:

    focuszing723 said:

    The only thing that kept crossing my mind was the supply/demand issue. Around my area there is a noticeable drop in estate agent "for sale signs" up.

    New car prices are going to have to drop too, people who buy them on drip will be hit by increasing IR's.

    I've been looking at available houses in my price range most days for the past year and the amount getting added each day has really dropped off in the last month or so.
    Yeah, it's interesting. People staying put being sensible?
    People all have an optimistic view on the vaue of their property so rather than discount they just stay put.

    People who have to sell and non-conventional houses get hammered
  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 8,154
    surrey_commuter said:

    focuszing723 said:

    Pross said:

    focuszing723 said:

    The only thing that kept crossing my mind was the supply/demand issue. Around my area there is a noticeable drop in estate agent "for sale signs" up.

    New car prices are going to have to drop too, people who buy them on drip will be hit by increasing IR's.

    I've been looking at available houses in my price range most days for the past year and the amount getting added each day has really dropped off in the last month or so.
    Yeah, it's interesting. People staying put being sensible?
    People all have an optimistic view on the vaue of their property so rather than discount they just stay put.

    People who have to sell and non-conventional houses get hammered
    Yeah, must be I guess. It's strange as in the majority of cases its relative anyway.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    focuszing723 said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    focuszing723 said:

    Pross said:

    focuszing723 said:

    The only thing that kept crossing my mind was the supply/demand issue. Around my area there is a noticeable drop in estate agent "for sale signs" up.

    New car prices are going to have to drop too, people who buy them on drip will be hit by increasing IR's.

    I've been looking at available houses in my price range most days for the past year and the amount getting added each day has really dropped off in the last month or so.
    Yeah, it's interesting. People staying put being sensible?
    People all have an optimistic view on the vaue of their property so rather than discount they just stay put.

    People who have to sell and non-conventional houses get hammered
    Yeah, must be I guess. It's strange as in the majority of cases its relative anyway.
    Most costs are calculated as a % so you can measure the saving
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    https://www.ft.com/content/2b6328a4-1cbf-432a-ae4f-e53284982b97

    Looks like Bailey et al were right after all re-wages as they pertain to inflation:


    UK pay grew more quickly than expected in the three months to May, adding to pressure on the Bank of England as it tries to tame inflation.

    Annual growth in employees’ average total pay, which includes bonuses, was 6.9 per cent in the three months to May, up from a revised 6.7 per cent in the three months to April, according to data published by the Office for National Statistics on Tuesday.

    The figure was stronger than the 6.8 per cent forecast by economists polled by Reuters.

    Growth in regular pay, which excludes bonuses, was also stronger than expected at 7.3 per cent over the same period, above analysts’ forecasts of a decline to 7.1 per cent.


    Guess that means more rate rises.
    _
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,506
    Serious question.
    Do the BoE think making life more difficult will result in wage increase demands dropping?
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    pblakeney said:

    Serious question.
    Do the BoE think making life more difficult will result in wage increase demands dropping?

    You pose a good question.

    You could also ask why the stats that wage rises are higher is not seen as a good thing
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 22,031
    Wages/rent/widget sales don't increase because people want more money. They increase because of a lack of supply / increased demand which means it is possible to charge more money.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,506
    TheBigBean said:

    Wages/rent/widget sales don't increase because people want more money. They increase because of a lack of supply / increased demand which means it is possible to charge more money.

    But there won't be a demand if everyone/most/some are skint.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 22,031
    pblakeney said:

    TheBigBean said:

    Wages/rent/widget sales don't increase because people want more money. They increase because of a lack of supply / increased demand which means it is possible to charge more money.

    But there won't be a demand if everyone/most/some are skint.
    Yes, that's the point especially when you consider companies in the equation.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,506
    TheBigBean said:

    pblakeney said:

    TheBigBean said:

    Wages/rent/widget sales don't increase because people want more money. They increase because of a lack of supply / increased demand which means it is possible to charge more money.

    But there won't be a demand if everyone/most/some are skint.
    Yes, that's the point especially when you consider companies in the equation.
    I'm clearly missing something as the way things are going it is only an upward spiral of costs. Everything goes up, people demand higher wages, costs go up...
    The demand is the same as people have already pared back to the minimum, in their view.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 22,031
    People can ask or even demand higher wages, but they will only get them if there is demand for their services, in excess of supply, from employers.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,506
    TheBigBean said:

    People can ask or even demand higher wages, but they will only get them if there is demand for their services, in excess of supply, from employers.

    True. Doesn't make for a very happy populace though, does it?
    I'm sure that there are people who are just fine, but there are others at breaking point.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 22,031
    pblakeney said:

    TheBigBean said:

    People can ask or even demand higher wages, but they will only get them if there is demand for their services, in excess of supply, from employers.

    True. Doesn't make for a very happy populace though, does it?
    I'm sure that there are people who are just fine, but there are others at breaking point.
    Capitalism isn't about keeping people happy.
  • Jezyboy
    Jezyboy Posts: 3,657
    TheBigBean said:

    pblakeney said:

    TheBigBean said:

    People can ask or even demand higher wages, but they will only get them if there is demand for their services, in excess of supply, from employers.

    True. Doesn't make for a very happy populace though, does it?
    I'm sure that there are people who are just fine, but there are others at breaking point.
    Capitalism isn't about keeping people happy.
    Sure but its long term survival requires it does.

    Saw an article about "zombie" firms being killed off with interest rate hikes. I wonder how many people are employed by firms in the zombie category.

  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,506
    TheBigBean said:

    pblakeney said:

    TheBigBean said:

    People can ask or even demand higher wages, but they will only get them if there is demand for their services, in excess of supply, from employers.

    True. Doesn't make for a very happy populace though, does it?
    I'm sure that there are people who are just fine, but there are others at breaking point.
    Capitalism isn't about keeping people happy.
    If the wheels are to keep turning then people need to keep buying.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.

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