Macroeconomics, the economy, inflation etc. *likely to be very dull*
Comments
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Interest rate rises don’t really seem the appropriate tool for dealing with the causes of the current high inflation. It feels very much a case of having to be seen to be doing something to keep ‘the markets’ happy and that being the only thing they know. Surely ‘the markets’ realise it isn’t doing anything beneficial so I don’t even get how it appeases them.0
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I pointed this out 9 months ago. They have to be seen to be doing something and that is the only tool they have. Trouble being that the tool is ineffective.Pross said:Interest rate rises don’t really seem the appropriate tool for dealing with the causes of the current high inflation. It feels very much a case of having to be seen to be doing something to keep ‘the markets’ happy and that being the only thing they know. Surely ‘the markets’ realise it isn’t doing anything beneficial so I don’t even get how it appeases them.
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
and that belief is one of the core beliefs of Thatcherism, otherwise known as common sense economicspblakeney said:Vicious spiral. Inflation leads to wage demands leads to increased interest rates leads to wage demands leads to inflation leads to...
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I tried but I find the Twitter format too frustrating.rjsterry said:One for @surrey_commuter : if you want a challenging viewpoint, follow Julian Jessop on Twitter. 🤨
I would say he knows what he is talking about but uses that knowledge to put forwards one sided arguments that he must know are wrong.0 -
The media chatter re inflation does tend to portray the situation as being that everyone bar the "1%" is shivering in misery, barely able to feed themselves. I think the reality is that there are still a lot of people with a lot of discretionary spending power (combination of pay rises and Covid-era savings) and with supply of many services relatively constrained price rises are inevitable. Try booking a cheap flight for example.rick_chasey said:I’d like to see some evidence that wage rises are actually having input into inflation first.
Thus far not showing up0 -
Don't get the impression that he's deliberately writing nonsense for notoriety, but I think he enjoys being contrary/unorthodox.surrey_commuter said:
I tried but I find the Twitter format too frustrating.rjsterry said:One for @surrey_commuter : if you want a challenging viewpoint, follow Julian Jessop on Twitter. 🤨
I would say he knows what he is talking about but uses that knowledge to put forwards one sided arguments that he must know are wrong.
I thought his recent comments on public borrowing - cheer up it's less than was forecast - were interesting; likewise on the unwinding of the BoE buying gilts. Not sure I agree or disagree, but good to read a different take without some of the hyperbolic language.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
I find Twitter unreadable and can't see those articles on his blog, if you have a link it would be good.rjsterry said:
Don't get the impression that he's deliberately writing nonsense for notoriety, but I think he enjoys being contrary/unorthodox.surrey_commuter said:
I tried but I find the Twitter format too frustrating.rjsterry said:One for @surrey_commuter : if you want a challenging viewpoint, follow Julian Jessop on Twitter. 🤨
I would say he knows what he is talking about but uses that knowledge to put forwards one sided arguments that he must know are wrong.
I thought his recent comments on public borrowing - cheer up it's less than was forecast - were interesting; likewise on the unwinding of the BoE buying gilts. Not sure I agree or disagree, but good to read a different take without some of the hyperbolic language.
I did not mean he is writing nonsense, more that he is reducing arguments to black and white positions.
I agree that he seems to revel in being the solitary voice0 -
https://iea.org.uk/media/public-finances-still-on-the-wrong-path-warns-iea-economist/surrey_commuter said:
I find Twitter unreadable and can't see those articles on his blog, if you have a link it would be good.rjsterry said:
Don't get the impression that he's deliberately writing nonsense for notoriety, but I think he enjoys being contrary/unorthodox.surrey_commuter said:
I tried but I find the Twitter format too frustrating.rjsterry said:One for @surrey_commuter : if you want a challenging viewpoint, follow Julian Jessop on Twitter. 🤨
I would say he knows what he is talking about but uses that knowledge to put forwards one sided arguments that he must know are wrong.
I thought his recent comments on public borrowing - cheer up it's less than was forecast - were interesting; likewise on the unwinding of the BoE buying gilts. Not sure I agree or disagree, but good to read a different take without some of the hyperbolic language.
I did not mean he is writing nonsense, more that he is reducing arguments to black and white positions.
I agree that he seems to revel in being the solitary voice
Warning he is still a nailed on Trussonomics fan.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
now I am getting to like the guyrjsterry said:
https://iea.org.uk/media/public-finances-still-on-the-wrong-path-warns-iea-economist/surrey_commuter said:
I find Twitter unreadable and can't see those articles on his blog, if you have a link it would be good.rjsterry said:
Don't get the impression that he's deliberately writing nonsense for notoriety, but I think he enjoys being contrary/unorthodox.surrey_commuter said:
I tried but I find the Twitter format too frustrating.rjsterry said:One for @surrey_commuter : if you want a challenging viewpoint, follow Julian Jessop on Twitter. 🤨
I would say he knows what he is talking about but uses that knowledge to put forwards one sided arguments that he must know are wrong.
I thought his recent comments on public borrowing - cheer up it's less than was forecast - were interesting; likewise on the unwinding of the BoE buying gilts. Not sure I agree or disagree, but good to read a different take without some of the hyperbolic language.
I did not mean he is writing nonsense, more that he is reducing arguments to black and white positions.
I agree that he seems to revel in being the solitary voice
Warning he is still a nailed on Trussonomics fan.
“Nonetheless, the public finances are on the wrong path and the Treasury will argue that the Chancellor has no headroom for tax cuts anytime soon. This is not necessarily right: tax cuts that support growth and boost the supply-side performance of the economy could actually help the public finances. But both borrowing and debt are already worryingly high.”
of course it is very easy to say these things but less easy to spot the politically acceptable ones0 -
I think the bit that sticks out is the belief that tax cuts axiomatically lead to growth.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
I half think you are tricking me into supporting him but I read that as supporting those tax cuts that promote growth. I am sure you will find some that will argue all tax cuts promote growth but there must be a sliding scale.rjsterry said:I think the bit that sticks out is the belief that tax cuts axiomatically lead to growth.
So in personal taxation you would sort out the aberrations around UB, CB £100-125k and pensions that lead to marginal tax rates of 60%+ rather than cutting the top rate to 40%1 -
Foiled! 😀surrey_commuter said:
I half think you are tricking me into supporting him but I read that as supporting those tax cuts that promote growth. I am sure you will find some that will argue all tax cuts promote growth but there must be a sliding scale.rjsterry said:I think the bit that sticks out is the belief that tax cuts axiomatically lead to growth.
So in personal taxation you would sort out the aberrations around UB, CB £100-125k and pensions that lead to marginal tax rates of 60%+ rather than cutting the top rate to 40%
There's not really an argument against removing those aberrations. One that has cropped up as a graph on Twitter - I'll spare you - is the threshold above which businesses have to be VAT registered. While these undoubtedly have negative effects, I'd need some convincing that they are the key to unleashing growth.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
In another context it would be seen as a marginal gain.rjsterry said:
Foiled! 😀surrey_commuter said:
I half think you are tricking me into supporting him but I read that as supporting those tax cuts that promote growth. I am sure you will find some that will argue all tax cuts promote growth but there must be a sliding scale.rjsterry said:I think the bit that sticks out is the belief that tax cuts axiomatically lead to growth.
So in personal taxation you would sort out the aberrations around UB, CB £100-125k and pensions that lead to marginal tax rates of 60%+ rather than cutting the top rate to 40%
There's not really an argument against removing those aberrations. One that has cropped up as a graph on Twitter - I'll spare you - is the threshold above which businesses have to be VAT registered. While these undoubtedly have negative effects, I'd need some convincing that they are the key to unleashing growth.
The silver bullet is also the elephant in the room.
I do wonder if the sudden interest in economic growth is a surrogate for a debate about our future relationship with the EU.0 -
Yeah he was irresponsible then and still is now.pblakeney said:
You'll have to take that up with Andrew Bailey.rick_chasey said:I’d like to see some evidence that wage rises are actually having input into inflation first.
Thus far not showing up
I think the Brexiter conversion to not saying “f@ck business” is the realisation that the perceived success or failure on it hangs on, or at the very least is enabled by, good economic performance.surrey_commuter said:
In another context it would be seen as a marginal gain.rjsterry said:
Foiled! 😀surrey_commuter said:
I half think you are tricking me into supporting him but I read that as supporting those tax cuts that promote growth. I am sure you will find some that will argue all tax cuts promote growth but there must be a sliding scale.rjsterry said:I think the bit that sticks out is the belief that tax cuts axiomatically lead to growth.
So in personal taxation you would sort out the aberrations around UB, CB £100-125k and pensions that lead to marginal tax rates of 60%+ rather than cutting the top rate to 40%
There's not really an argument against removing those aberrations. One that has cropped up as a graph on Twitter - I'll spare you - is the threshold above which businesses have to be VAT registered. While these undoubtedly have negative effects, I'd need some convincing that they are the key to unleashing growth.
The silver bullet is also the elephant in the room.
I do wonder if the sudden interest in economic growth is a surrogate for a debate about our future relationship with the EU.
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Oh, I agree 100%. I cannot change things though.rick_chasey said:
Yeah he was irresponsible then and still is now.pblakeney said:
You'll have to take that up with Andrew Bailey.rick_chasey said:I’d like to see some evidence that wage rises are actually having input into inflation first.
Thus far not showing up
That is probably a good thing but at least I realise it.The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
As somebody who gives not one fvck about sovereignty I still find it baffling the the Tory party were prepared to fvck business to get their precious Brexit done.rick_chasey said:
Yeah he was irresponsible then and still is now.pblakeney said:
You'll have to take that up with Andrew Bailey.rick_chasey said:I’d like to see some evidence that wage rises are actually having input into inflation first.
Thus far not showing up
I think the Brexiter conversion to not saying “f@ck business” is the realisation that the perceived success or failure on it hangs on, or at the very least is enabled by, good economic performance.surrey_commuter said:
In another context it would be seen as a marginal gain.rjsterry said:
Foiled! 😀surrey_commuter said:
I half think you are tricking me into supporting him but I read that as supporting those tax cuts that promote growth. I am sure you will find some that will argue all tax cuts promote growth but there must be a sliding scale.rjsterry said:I think the bit that sticks out is the belief that tax cuts axiomatically lead to growth.
So in personal taxation you would sort out the aberrations around UB, CB £100-125k and pensions that lead to marginal tax rates of 60%+ rather than cutting the top rate to 40%
There's not really an argument against removing those aberrations. One that has cropped up as a graph on Twitter - I'll spare you - is the threshold above which businesses have to be VAT registered. While these undoubtedly have negative effects, I'd need some convincing that they are the key to unleashing growth.
The silver bullet is also the elephant in the room.
I do wonder if the sudden interest in economic growth is a surrogate for a debate about our future relationship with the EU.
Somebody mentioned upthread that their business donors had deserted them, with the Russian money taps turned off that leaves them very dependent on a few wealthy Brexity individuals and they have already got what they paid for.0 -
The money follows the power not the other way around. Plenty of studies in the US about it.surrey_commuter said:
As somebody who gives not one fvck about sovereignty I still find it baffling the the Tory party were prepared to fvck business to get their precious Brexit done.rick_chasey said:
Yeah he was irresponsible then and still is now.pblakeney said:
You'll have to take that up with Andrew Bailey.rick_chasey said:I’d like to see some evidence that wage rises are actually having input into inflation first.
Thus far not showing up
I think the Brexiter conversion to not saying “f@ck business” is the realisation that the perceived success or failure on it hangs on, or at the very least is enabled by, good economic performance.surrey_commuter said:
In another context it would be seen as a marginal gain.rjsterry said:
Foiled! 😀surrey_commuter said:
I half think you are tricking me into supporting him but I read that as supporting those tax cuts that promote growth. I am sure you will find some that will argue all tax cuts promote growth but there must be a sliding scale.rjsterry said:I think the bit that sticks out is the belief that tax cuts axiomatically lead to growth.
So in personal taxation you would sort out the aberrations around UB, CB £100-125k and pensions that lead to marginal tax rates of 60%+ rather than cutting the top rate to 40%
There's not really an argument against removing those aberrations. One that has cropped up as a graph on Twitter - I'll spare you - is the threshold above which businesses have to be VAT registered. While these undoubtedly have negative effects, I'd need some convincing that they are the key to unleashing growth.
The silver bullet is also the elephant in the room.
I do wonder if the sudden interest in economic growth is a surrogate for a debate about our future relationship with the EU.
Somebody mentioned upthread that their business donors had deserted them, with the Russian money taps turned off that leaves them very dependent on a few wealthy Brexity individuals and they have already got what they paid for.
Should see the lack of donations as a recognition they’ll be out of power for a while.
They money is to curry favour for decision makers.0 -
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We should all be happy.rick_chasey said:
SC will be happyThe above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Because we're being "accidentally" dragged into paying more income tax? I'm not sure happy is the right word, but I guess it's good news if they don't decide it's a good idea to spunk it away.pblakeney said:
We should all be happy.rick_chasey said:
SC will be happy0 -
That is the key caveat.kingstongraham said:
Because we're being "accidentally" dragged into paying more income tax? I'm not sure happy is the right word, but I guess it's good news if they don't decide it's a good idea to censored it away.pblakeney said:
We should all be happy.rick_chasey said:
SC will be happy
Then I become an doomster all over again. 😉The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Ha. You read the next tweet in the thread?rick_chasey said:1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
What they should do is restate the assumptions that their cuts after the next election are based on, and make election promises based on something achievable. I'm glad that their "be vaguely sane and hope that something will turn up" strategy after the previous Conservative leadership seems to have worked.pblakeney said:
That is the key caveat.kingstongraham said:
Because we're being "accidentally" dragged into paying more income tax? I'm not sure happy is the right word, but I guess it's good news if they don't decide it's a good idea to censored it away.pblakeney said:
We should all be happy.rick_chasey said:
SC will be happy
Then I become an doomster all over again. 😉0 -
rjsterry said:
Ha. You read the next tweet in the thread?rick_chasey said:0 -
Borrowing at £30bn with two months to go does not make me happy, the fact that it is lower than anticipated makes me less unhappy. This is tempered by the fact that the tvvats see it as a green light to borrow more.rick_chasey said:
Anyway what do we think of Croydon council borrowing at ultra low rates to invest and now face a £500m hole?0 -
That's a funding issue. Stop giving councils money and they start veering off the day job to try and make ends meet.surrey_commuter said:
Borrowing at £30bn with two months to go does not make me happy, the fact that it is lower than anticipated makes me less unhappy. This is tempered by the fact that the tvvats see it as a green light to borrow more.rick_chasey said:
Anyway what do we think of Croydon council borrowing at ultra low rates to invest and now face a £500m hole?0 -
Think we did that somewhere when Thurrock did the same.surrey_commuter said:
Borrowing at £30bn with two months to go does not make me happy, the fact that it is lower than anticipated makes me less unhappy. This is tempered by the fact that the tvvats see it as a green light to borrow more.rick_chasey said:
Anyway what do we think of Croydon council borrowing at ultra low rates to invest and now face a £500m hole?0 -
Hate to break it to you, but the borrowing was actually £116.9bn in the financial year to January 23.surrey_commuter said:
Borrowing at £30bn with two months to go does not make me happy, the fact that it is lower than anticipated makes me less unhappy. This is tempered by the fact that the tvvats see it as a green light to borrow more.rick_chasey said:0 -
that really does not cheer me upkingstongraham said:
Hate to break it to you, but the borrowing was actually £116.9bn in the financial year to January 23.surrey_commuter said:
Borrowing at £30bn with two months to go does not make me happy, the fact that it is lower than anticipated makes me less unhappy. This is tempered by the fact that the tvvats see it as a green light to borrow more.rick_chasey said:0 -
It won't get the money back but I really feel there should be some stiff penalties for the perpetrators.kingstongraham said:
Think we did that somewhere when Thurrock did the same.surrey_commuter said:
Borrowing at £30bn with two months to go does not make me happy, the fact that it is lower than anticipated makes me less unhappy. This is tempered by the fact that the tvvats see it as a green light to borrow more.rick_chasey said:
Anyway what do we think of Croydon council borrowing at ultra low rates to invest and now face a £500m hole?0