Macroeconomics, the economy, inflation etc. *likely to be very dull*

surrey_commuter

rick_chasey said:

surrey_commuter said:

I disagree that the economy is up the swanny. The problem is that our self inflicted wounds have reduced the markets perceptions of our future potential.

I see your concerns as a symptom of the problem. You see them as a cause.

It's just a cause or effect argument.

kind of.

The market takes a long term view as that is the lifetime of the debt, or investment. The UK's reputation for good decision making has taken a hammering in the last 6 but the economy is not currently up the swanny.

rjsterry

surrey_commuter said:

For those who supported the theory that borrowing was not an issue because we had a sovereign currency can they explain why it has seemingly imploded so abruptly?

Nobody said it 'wasn't an issue'. The argument was over what the constraints on borrowing are. Pretty sure lender confidence was discussed.

kingstongraham

rjsterry said:

surrey_commuter said:

For those who supported the theory that borrowing was not an issue because we had a sovereign currency can they explain why it has seemingly imploded so abruptly?

Nobody said it 'wasn't an issue'. The argument was over what the constraints on borrowing are. Pretty sure lender confidence was discussed.

And inflation.

rick_chasey

Seeing the real time price rises of the same lunch in places near the office is quite eye opening.

surrey_commuter

kingstongraham said:

rjsterry said:

surrey_commuter said:

For those who supported the theory that borrowing was not an issue because we had a sovereign currency can they explain why it has seemingly imploded so abruptly?

Nobody said it 'wasn't an issue'. The argument was over what the constraints on borrowing are. Pretty sure lender confidence was discussed.

And inflation.

the bigger the better was the inflation mantra

kingstongraham

surrey_commuter said:

kingstongraham said:

rjsterry said:

surrey_commuter said:

For those who supported the theory that borrowing was not an issue because we had a sovereign currency can they explain why it has seemingly imploded so abruptly?

Nobody said it 'wasn't an issue'. The argument was over what the constraints on borrowing are. Pretty sure lender confidence was discussed.

And inflation.

the bigger the better was the inflation mantra

Nope.

shirley_basso

rick_chasey said:

Seeing the real time price rises of the same lunch in places near the office is quite eye opening.

Fuel also coming down - I live near a petrol station and it's gone down 1 or 2 pence every 3-4 days for the last few weeks. Now at 179.9

surrey_commuter

kingstongraham said:

surrey_commuter said:

kingstongraham said:

rjsterry said:

surrey_commuter said:

For those who supported the theory that borrowing was not an issue because we had a sovereign currency can they explain why it has seemingly imploded so abruptly?

Nobody said it 'wasn't an issue'. The argument was over what the constraints on borrowing are. Pretty sure lender confidence was discussed.

And inflation.

the bigger the better was the inflation mantra

Nope.

Rick was definitely in favour of inflating away the problem

rick_chasey

surrey_commuter said:

kingstongraham said:

surrey_commuter said:

kingstongraham said:

rjsterry said:

surrey_commuter said:

For those who supported the theory that borrowing was not an issue because we had a sovereign currency can they explain why it has seemingly imploded so abruptly?

Nobody said it 'wasn't an issue'. The argument was over what the constraints on borrowing are. Pretty sure lender confidence was discussed.

And inflation.

the bigger the better was the inflation mantra

Nope.

Rick was definitely in favour of inflating away the problem

Demand side inflation was something I thought was worth tolerating if it was boosting demand, investment, etc.

Supply side inflation/stagflation is clearly not ever good

TheBigBean

kingstongraham said:

rjsterry said:

surrey_commuter said:

For those who supported the theory that borrowing was not an issue because we had a sovereign currency can they explain why it has seemingly imploded so abruptly?

Nobody said it 'wasn't an issue'. The argument was over what the constraints on borrowing are. Pretty sure lender confidence was discussed.

And inflation.

Indeed. My comments on this were the reason this thread was started.

rick_chasey

TheBigBean said:

kingstongraham said:

rjsterry said:

surrey_commuter said:

For those who supported the theory that borrowing was not an issue because we had a sovereign currency can they explain why it has seemingly imploded so abruptly?

Nobody said it 'wasn't an issue'. The argument was over what the constraints on borrowing are. Pretty sure lender confidence was discussed.

And inflation.

Indeed. My comments on this were the reason this thread was started.

Fair play for predicting Chinese Zero Covid strategy and the biggest war in Europe for 80 years

TheBigBean

rick_chasey said:

TheBigBean said:

kingstongraham said:

rjsterry said:

surrey_commuter said:

For those who supported the theory that borrowing was not an issue because we had a sovereign currency can they explain why it has seemingly imploded so abruptly?

Nobody said it 'wasn't an issue'. The argument was over what the constraints on borrowing are. Pretty sure lender confidence was discussed.

And inflation.

Indeed. My comments on this were the reason this thread was started.

Fair play for predicting Chinese Zero Covid strategy and the biggest war in Europe for 80 years

Seeing the wood through the trees you mean.

rick_chasey

TheBigBean said:

rick_chasey said:

TheBigBean said:

kingstongraham said:

rjsterry said:

surrey_commuter said:

For those who supported the theory that borrowing was not an issue because we had a sovereign currency can they explain why it has seemingly imploded so abruptly?

Nobody said it 'wasn't an issue'. The argument was over what the constraints on borrowing are. Pretty sure lender confidence was discussed.

And inflation.

Indeed. My comments on this were the reason this thread was started.

Fair play for predicting Chinese Zero Covid strategy and the biggest war in Europe for 80 years

Seeing the wood through the trees you mean.

If you spot the wrong cause of inflation and inflation happens, that's not good analysis.

It is clear that supply side problems in China and the war in Ukraine are by far the main drivers of inflation.

skyblueamateur

rick_chasey said:

TheBigBean said:

rick_chasey said:

TheBigBean said:

kingstongraham said:

rjsterry said:

surrey_commuter said:

For those who supported the theory that borrowing was not an issue because we had a sovereign currency can they explain why it has seemingly imploded so abruptly?

Nobody said it 'wasn't an issue'. The argument was over what the constraints on borrowing are. Pretty sure lender confidence was discussed.

And inflation.

Indeed. My comments on this were the reason this thread was started.

Fair play for predicting Chinese Zero Covid strategy and the biggest war in Europe for 80 years

Seeing the wood through the trees you mean.

If you spot the wrong cause of inflation and inflation happens, that's not good analysis.

It is clear that supply side problems in China and the war in Ukraine are by far the main drivers of inflation.

I’ve been boringly banging on about Chinese supply side problems and carriage increases for a few years. It hasn’t happened over night. If I could see what was coming then the BoE and government definitely should have.

kingstongraham

Doesn't the first post on this thread have a prediction of inflation not going above 4.5%?

Edited - those are linked graphs, so that's the current prediction for one year onwards.

rick_chasey

skyblueamateur said:

rick_chasey said:

TheBigBean said:

rick_chasey said:

TheBigBean said:

kingstongraham said:

rjsterry said:

surrey_commuter said:

For those who supported the theory that borrowing was not an issue because we had a sovereign currency can they explain why it has seemingly imploded so abruptly?

Nobody said it 'wasn't an issue'. The argument was over what the constraints on borrowing are. Pretty sure lender confidence was discussed.

And inflation.

Indeed. My comments on this were the reason this thread was started.

Fair play for predicting Chinese Zero Covid strategy and the biggest war in Europe for 80 years

Seeing the wood through the trees you mean.

If you spot the wrong cause of inflation and inflation happens, that's not good analysis.

It is clear that supply side problems in China and the war in Ukraine are by far the main drivers of inflation.

I’ve been boringly banging on about Chinese supply side problems and carriage increases for a few years. It hasn’t happened over night. If I could see what was coming then the BoE and government definitely should have.

Sure but surely the Zero Covid process has compounded the problem? That's what I read anyway.

pblakeney

rick_chasey said:

skyblueamateur said:

rick_chasey said:

TheBigBean said:

rick_chasey said:

TheBigBean said:

kingstongraham said:

rjsterry said:

surrey_commuter said:

For those who supported the theory that borrowing was not an issue because we had a sovereign currency can they explain why it has seemingly imploded so abruptly?

Nobody said it 'wasn't an issue'. The argument was over what the constraints on borrowing are. Pretty sure lender confidence was discussed.

And inflation.

Indeed. My comments on this were the reason this thread was started.

Fair play for predicting Chinese Zero Covid strategy and the biggest war in Europe for 80 years

Seeing the wood through the trees you mean.

If you spot the wrong cause of inflation and inflation happens, that's not good analysis.

It is clear that supply side problems in China and the war in Ukraine are by far the main drivers of inflation.

I’ve been boringly banging on about Chinese supply side problems and carriage increases for a few years. It hasn’t happened over night. If I could see what was coming then the BoE and government definitely should have.

Sure but surely the Zero Covid process has compounded the problem? That's what I read anyway.

There was also a drought in summer which impacted on hydro power and lowered river levels stopping shipping. That's what I read anyway.

TheBigBean

rick_chasey said:

TheBigBean said:

rick_chasey said:

TheBigBean said:

kingstongraham said:

rjsterry said:

surrey_commuter said:

For those who supported the theory that borrowing was not an issue because we had a sovereign currency can they explain why it has seemingly imploded so abruptly?

Nobody said it 'wasn't an issue'. The argument was over what the constraints on borrowing are. Pretty sure lender confidence was discussed.

And inflation.

Indeed. My comments on this were the reason this thread was started.

Fair play for predicting Chinese Zero Covid strategy and the biggest war in Europe for 80 years

Seeing the wood through the trees you mean.

If you spot the wrong cause of inflation and inflation happens, that's not good analysis.

It is clear that supply side problems in China and the war in Ukraine are by far the main drivers of inflation.

You can admit to getting it wrong.

skyblueamateur

rick_chasey said:

skyblueamateur said:

rick_chasey said:

TheBigBean said:

rick_chasey said:

TheBigBean said:

kingstongraham said:

rjsterry said:

surrey_commuter said:

For those who supported the theory that borrowing was not an issue because we had a sovereign currency can they explain why it has seemingly imploded so abruptly?

Nobody said it 'wasn't an issue'. The argument was over what the constraints on borrowing are. Pretty sure lender confidence was discussed.

And inflation.

Indeed. My comments on this were the reason this thread was started.

Fair play for predicting Chinese Zero Covid strategy and the biggest war in Europe for 80 years

Seeing the wood through the trees you mean.

If you spot the wrong cause of inflation and inflation happens, that's not good analysis.

It is clear that supply side problems in China and the war in Ukraine are by far the main drivers of inflation.

I’ve been boringly banging on about Chinese supply side problems and carriage increases for a few years. It hasn’t happened over night. If I could see what was coming then the BoE and government definitely should have.

Sure but surely the Zero Covid process has compounded the problem? That's what I read anyway.

Of course it hasn’t helped but I would argue (possibly incorrectly) that it is negligible. The damage had already been done.

We’ve found cost prices in USD stay roughly the same. Carriage charges killed things initially.

All of this has been compounded by the run on sterling. It has made products 20% more expensive. Tied in with carriage charges that were 4-5 times more expensive which now have the added bonus of the currency burden on top.

The run on the pound has come due to bad economic decisions and the ridiculous amount of QE that occurred. I make SC bang on with his predictions from the last 18 months.

rick_chasey

Saying an F1 car won’t finish because the engine blows up and the F1 car doesn’t finish because the driver crashed it into a wall, that is not a good prediction

TheBigBean

rick_chasey said:

Saying an F1 car won’t finish because the engine blows up and the F1 car doesn’t finish because the driver crashed it into a wall, that is not a good prediction

I said a historically unprecedented increase in money supply combined with pent-up demand and recovery issues would lead to inflation. I stand by that. Ukraine has added to this, but it doesn't make my initial assertion wrong.

rick_chasey

TheBigBean said:

rick_chasey said:

Saying an F1 car won’t finish because the engine blows up and the F1 car doesn’t finish because the driver crashed it into a wall, that is not a good prediction

I said a historically unprecedented increase in money supply combined with pent-up demand and recovery issues would lead to inflation. I stand by that. Ukraine has added to this, but it doesn't make my initial assertion wrong.

I think it does, unless you can prove the money supply increase with the increase in demand has caused the majority of inflation.

The money supply has increased lots of times over the past 10 years and it hasn't impacted inflation at all, so there isn't even that much correlation, let alone proof of causation.

TheBigBean

rick_chasey said:

TheBigBean said:

rick_chasey said:

Saying an F1 car won’t finish because the engine blows up and the F1 car doesn’t finish because the driver crashed it into a wall, that is not a good prediction

I said a historically unprecedented increase in money supply combined with pent-up demand and recovery issues would lead to inflation. I stand by that. Ukraine has added to this, but it doesn't make my initial assertion wrong.

I think it does, unless you can prove the money supply increase with the increase in demand has caused the majority of inflation.

The money supply has increased lots of times over the past 10 years and it hasn't impacted inflation at all, so there isn't even that much correlation, let alone proof of causation.

I've provided graphs to evidence that this isn't the case at M4 level.

TheBigBean

M4 increase.


songs smileys

surrey_commuter

rick_chasey said:

Saying an F1 car won’t finish because the engine blows up and the F1 car doesn’t finish because the driver crashed it into a wall, that is not a good prediction

A better analogy would be us saying that if he keeps driving like a tvvat he will kill somebody. He has now driven into a wall and killed himself and you are arguing we were wrong.

Anyway we all kept saying that with that level of debt if conditions changed against us then it would be uncontrollable.

pblakeney

We all knew the conditions would change against us the only question was when. I think within 5 years was ballpark. How is irrelevant, what was needed was a plan of action.

focuszing723

I warned all you c0ckn0ckers about historic interest rates, quad percent now. I said it was wrong to assume near zero rates was the new norm.

Look, all I want it at least twenty likes. It's not asking much.

focuszing723

Thank you Secretsqirrel. Come on, where's the rest of them?

focuszing723

Well, the fact my greatness can be disparaged in such a way makes me feel sad. I'm going back to the $h1tness of reality and it's all your faults.

focuszing723

Hope you're all happy!