Giro 2020 - Stage 18: Pinzolo – Laghi di Cancano 207 km *Spoilers*

RichN95.

Maybe they just don't have that much faith in Kelderman finishing the job. If this had been two years ago at the Giro Hindley would definitely dropped back to ride with Dumoulin. But Kelderman doesn't have the credit that Dumoulin did (and he's going to Bora next year).

DeVlaeminck

jam1e said:

Yeah, I'm not sure what "all in for Kelderman" would have looked like - Hindley V Dennis along the valley in a Sunweb V Ineos 2upTT? I'm sure Ineos would've loved that scenario.

So you don't think having Hindley on the remainder of the Stelvio, the descent, the valley and the last climb would have been worth some time for Kelderman ? There would be nothing stopping them working together all the way to the finish it wouldn't have to be one towing the other.

The only question mark is whether having Hindley there made TGH climb slower for fear of being attacked - I just doubt that is really the case to any degree as Kelderman is still the favourite - Tao shouldn't be worrying about Hindley until he thinks he can beat Kelderman.

Pross

Is Kelderman the favourite? Hindley and TGH looked stronger on the climb a few days ago when Tao won. All his time gains are from the TTs.

blazing_saddles

In the simplest possible terms for those who remain challenged by this decision.
Hindley saved Kelderman more time, by sitting on TGH's wheel, stopping him from going full gas, than any time Kelderman could have saved from a tow.
The guy was cooked, period.

RichN95.

Pross said:

Is Kelderman the favourite? Hindley and TGH looked stronger on the climb a few days ago when Tao won. All his time gains are from the TTs.

According to the bookies. If Tao can get a 30s lead over Kelderman going into the TT I think he wins (assuming no great losses to Hindley). I think if they're level anything could happen

bobmcstuff

DeVlaeminck said:

pblakeney said:

DeVlaeminck said:

I'd have gone all in for Kelderman. With a 2:30 lead their best chance of a win was to preserve as much of that as possible as the chances of the other guy beating TGH over the next 3 days seem minimal.

You do realise that Kelderman is in Pink and strong favourite to win?

Errr yes of course. You do realise that at one point in the stage it looked very possible that an isolated Kelderman was going to ship more time ?

I know why Sunweb did what they did but I think it was a mistake. They may have got away with it (though they may not) but the better course of action would have been all in for Kelderman. You are of course free to disagree.

Think you're more or less on your own there then.

RichN95.

blazing_saddles said:

In the simplest possible terms for those who remain challenged by this decision.
Hindley saved Kelderman more time, by sitting on TGH's wheel, stopping him from going full gas, than any time Kelderman could have saved from a tow.
The guy was cooked, period.

This is a good point. Bilbao and Fuglsang gained time on the last climb, which TGH did as fast as Van Vleuten last year.

DeVlaeminck

Van Vleuten also climbed as fast as all the other riders today then in which case what does that prove other than she was either a lot fresher and/or the conditions were far more favourable?

The assumption that Tao held a reasonable amount back depends on him having significantly more left than the rest which is possible but not a given. He may have held 15-20 seconds worth back - my guess is Hindley could have saved Kelderman significantly more than that.

Edit - just reading cycling news Kelderman says explicitly that had Hindley waited then his (Kelderman's) GC lead would be bigger but they wouldn't have 2 riders in with a chance - so I've got at least one person that agrees with me!

RichN95.

DeVlaeminck said:

Van Vleuten also climbed as fast as all the other riders today then in which case what does that prove other than she was either a lot fresher and/or the conditions were far more favourable?

If I have learned anything from climb times on the internet it is that context is irrelevant. Antoine Vayer says so. So in the interests of equality this shows that women can compete with men and they should no longer be separated. This sexism has to stop.

tailwindhome

Really enjoyed the Rob Hatch commentary on that stage...

pblakeney

Pross said:

Is Kelderman the favourite? Hindley and TGH looked stronger on the climb a few days ago when Tao won. All his time gains are from the TTs.

Yes. The reduced stage on Saturday probably helps.
Just has to stay in touch and take it in the TT. Quelle surprise! 😉

RichN95.

Ultimately the mistake that Sunweb made was not using hindsight in the decisions. I'm not sure I can think of a harder call for a DS than today. They are not in a commanding position - they weren't at the day's start. But they still have two places at the final table.

jimmyjams

Lanterne_Rogue said:

gsk82 said:

In normal circumstances I'd say that sunweb have really ballsed this up. With the TT to come Hindley can't win, so they should've backed Kelderman. But all 3 are third rate and any of them could lose 5 minutes on Saturday or get caught out having a pee on Friday.

Good point. It's 2020 - sensible thing to do is stick a fiver on Bilbao.

Indeed (the fiver).

For all the discussion about what Sunweb should have done and about what chance TGH still has, not only is Bilbao not yet out of it, but neither is Almeida - not of winning overall, but an outside chance of the podium.
In the TT he should definitely make up time against TGH and Hindley, and possibly even against Kelderman and Bilbao. To have the chance of a podium place, however, both Bilbao and Almeida probably have to make up a minute before the TT. For the 4 teams concerned, Saturday could therefore be tactically interesting (presuming tomorrow is just the expected sprinter canter).

RichN95.

Bilbao has a shot but I think Almeida is in a Downward Spiral.

RichN95.

Whatever happens I would like to update my Ineos situation status

mrb123

RichN95. said:

Ultimately the mistake that Sunweb made was not using hindsight in the decisions. I'm not sure I can think of a harder call for a DS than today. They are not in a commanding position - they weren't at the day's start. But they still have two places at the final table.

This 100%.

They had no way of knowing how big Kelderman's losses would be.

There was still a long way to go in the stage when he cracked. If he'd ended up losing 10 minutes they'd have looked pretty daft if Hindley had been sent back and both of them had lost their chances.

blazing_saddles

RichN95. said:

Whatever happens I would like to update my Ineos situation status

Froome should no longer have chair, but a white jacket and a drinks tray in his hand.

blazing_saddles

DeVlaeminck said:

The assumption that Tao held a reasonable amount back depends on him having significantly more left than the rest which is possible but not a given. He may have held 15-20 seconds worth back - my guess is Hindley could have saved Kelderman significantly more than that.

Edit - just reading cycling news Kelderman says explicitly that had Hindley waited then his (Kelderman's) GC lead would be bigger but they wouldn't have 2 riders in with a chance - so I've got at least one person that agrees with me!

Total guesswork.
The assumption that Tao held a reasonable amount back is no different to the assumption that Kelderman could have upped his pace had Hindley been with him.

In fact there is clear evidence that disputes this assumption: He could not hold Fuglsang's wheel, not even for a few seconds., at a time when Fuglsang was also struggling.
So, the idea that he could somehow have saved a minute is pure fantasy.

As for Kelderman endorsing Kelderman's ability to go faster................

kingstongraham

RichN95. said:

Whatever happens I would like to update my Ineos situation status

Is Froome currently at the "taking a p!ss on the office floor" stage of his career?

Pross

Anyone remember the Vuelta 2011 when Sky got slated for making Froome wait for Wiggins and how he should have been allowed to go for the win himself? Now we have a team that took that approach and people say it's the wrong decision.

jam1e

DeVlaeminck said:

jam1e said:

Yeah, I'm not sure what "all in for Kelderman" would have looked like - Hindley V Dennis along the valley in a Sunweb V Ineos 2upTT? I'm sure Ineos would've loved that scenario.

So you don't think having Hindley on the remainder of the Stelvio, the descent, the valley and the last climb would have been worth some time for Kelderman ? There would be nothing stopping them working together all the way to the finish it wouldn't have to be one towing the other.

The only question mark is whether having Hindley there made TGH climb slower for fear of being attacked - I just doubt that is really the case to any degree as Kelderman is still the favourite - Tao shouldn't be worrying about Hindley until he thinks he can beat Kelderman.

Well, apart from the fact that Kelderman was pretty much done so Hindley would be expected to do the lion's share to save Kelderman for the final climb otherwise why call him back?

So then you've got Kelderman who's cooked from the climb, Hindley who's cooked from TT'ing against Dennis going into a climb where TGH can then go at whatever place he can sustain with no fear of getting gapped or bounced for bonus seconds.

So in a purely time sense Kelderman may have been marginally better off or may have been marginally worse off if TGH could push on a bit then get the bonus seconds. However in a tactical or situational sense he'd be much worse off as Hindley was seriously reduced as a GC concern to TGH.

Hindley would also be more fatigued going into the final mountain stage as instead of following wheels he was dragging Kelderman along for the final 30km or whatever it was so if/when Kelderman starts to crack again tomorrow Hindley is just that bit less likely to be able to keep TGH under control.

It would have been like a Reichenbach/Pinot Giro mixtape where waiting potentially makes sense on paper but goes to ratshit quite quickly.

TheBigBean

Pross said:

Anyone remember the Vuelta 2012 when Sky got slated for making Froome wait for Wiggins and how he should have been allowed to go for the win himself? Now we have a team that took that approach and people say it's the wrong decision.

Just being pedantic

It was 2011

DeVlaeminck

blazing_saddles said:

DeVlaeminck said:

The assumption that Tao held a reasonable amount back depends on him having significantly more left than the rest which is possible but not a given. He may have held 15-20 seconds worth back - my guess is Hindley could have saved Kelderman significantly more than that.

Edit - just reading cycling news Kelderman says explicitly that had Hindley waited then his (Kelderman's) GC lead would be bigger but they wouldn't have 2 riders in with a chance - so I've got at least one person that agrees with me!

Total guesswork.
The assumption that Tao held a reasonable amount back is no different to the assumption that Kelderman could have upped his pace had Hindley been with him.

In fact there is clear evidence that disputes this assumption: He could not hold Fuglsang's wheel, not even for a few seconds., at a time when Fuglsang was also struggling.
So, the idea that he could somehow have saved a minute is pure fantasy.

As for Kelderman endorsing Kelderman's ability to go faster................

It's no more total guesswork than your statement that Hindley sitting on his wheel cost TGH more time than Kelderman would have gained had Hindley been with him.

It's an opinion - of course it is none of us can rerun the race - but it's an opinion shared by Kelderman. If you really don't think Kelderman would have gone faster with Hindley with him well that just defies physics doesn't it.

takethehighroad

Pross said:

Anyone remember the Vuelta 2012 when Sky got slated for making Froome wait for Wiggins and how he should have been allowed to go for the win himself? Now we have a team that took that approach and people say it's the wrong decision.

There's a quote about opinions and arseholes, but I can't quite remember it right now.

DeVlaeminck

Pross said:

Anyone remember the Vuelta 2012 when Sky got slated for making Froome wait for Wiggins and how he should have been allowed to go for the win himself? Now we have a team that took that approach and people say it's the wrong decision.

OK so Sky agree with my approach too and it worked !! No I don't remember them being seen as tactically naive quite the opposite.

Bottom line is it's highly unlikely Hindley can win this race with his poor TT unless he can drop TGH.

The only thing in Sunwebs mind should have been how do we preserve as much of Kelderman's lead as possible.

So it's a pretty simple question - do you think having Hindley on his wheel slowed TGH more than being on Hindley's wheel (and working with him) would have helped Kelderman.

Kelderman had not blown up he just wasn't able to live with the Ineos acceleration towards the top of the Stelvio.

jam1e

The only thing in Sunwebs mind should have been how do we preserve as much of Kelderman's lead as possible.



No, the only thing in Sunweb's mind should have been "how do we get the best possible GC result?"

Pross

TheBigBean said:

Pross said:

Anyone remember the Vuelta 2012 when Sky got slated for making Froome wait for Wiggins and how he should have been allowed to go for the win himself? Now we have a team that took that approach and people say it's the wrong decision.

Just being pedantic

It was 2011

I'm sure I typed 2011 but I was thinking how it played into all the background of 2012 so may it was that.

pblakeney

Kelderman had two problems.
1. He couldn't climb the Stelvio as fast as Dennis. That's fairly damning, or high praise for Dennis. (I go with high praise).
2. He couldn't zip up a jacket. Neither could Hindley.

takethehighroad

That's just reminded me I haven't praised a brilliant bit of commentary from Rob Hatch.

"Sorry to sound like you're Nanna, but if you don't put your coat on you won't feel the benefit ... All that science and it comes down to who can zip up a coat!"

DeVlaeminck

Pross said:

TheBigBean said:

Pross said:

Anyone remember the Vuelta 2012 when Sky got slated for making Froome wait for Wiggins and how he should have been allowed to go for the win himself? Now we have a team that took that approach and people say it's the wrong decision.

Just being pedantic

It was 2011

I'm sure I typed 2011 but I was thinking how it played into all the background of 2012 so may it was that.

Ah ok I read 2012 and was thinking Tour