The big Coronavirus thread
Comments
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It's admittedly easier for them as that particular operation is based on an industrial estate outside a coastal town over in the west of The Netherlands and everyone drives to work. For us London commuters its the transport rather than the office that is the bigger risk IMO - if they do that with me then my every third day will be cycling or maybe the occasional drive if I can bag one of the underground car parking spaces. Not so easy for those who live in the sticks...rick_chasey said:
I am obviously curious how this works from a public transport perspective.Stevo_666 said:Out of interest I just heard that our Dutch lot are doing a phased return to the office towards the end of May by dividing the work force into 3 teams and each team goes into the office every third working day. Could be something that other companies will be adopting - am expecting that we will hear something similar for other offices soon.
I don't really fancy trying it for the next few months...."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
I think we will likely arrive at the conclusion that people will tolerate lots of death as long as hopsitals are not overflowing and unable to save savable people.First.Aspect said:
You are absolutely right that a bad economic shock can scar a region semi-permanently. I live near what was once mining country. Until a recent spate of new builds for commuters, the local towns were pretty awful with systemic unemployment and deprivation as a result of Thatcher closing basically the only job on town so quickly. That was 35 years ago. Ravenscraig was only built on in the 2000s. You can plot a direct line from that to the SNP's popularity... I digress.rick_chasey said:In the same way folk are saying "you need to accept lots of people are going to die" I think people need to recognise that this is going to be deeply damaging for an economy and there is only so much you can do.
Lifting things before it is safe to do so won't help any economic recovery either.
You can look at all the proper global pandemics in the past and it is always the same - places with the most deaths do the worst; sometimes changing the entire direction of a place's prosperity forever.
I would be shocked if America comes out of this as powerful as it went in. It is hard to take a superpower seriously if it literally cannot look after its own people and is comfortable for thousands to needlessly die (and it elects leaders who suggest injecting disinfectant.)
But I'm not sure you are right about the rest. This isn't a pandemic in the same sense of the Spanish flu - the death rate, though alarming, isn't even remotely close and, if all lockdowns were lifted and it ran riot, the economic impact would be not that great because people of working age are, relatively speaking, not that susceptible.
For the avoidance of doubt I'm not advocating this, but this seems to be the right-wing view in the US and economically, they may in fact steal something of a march on the rest of the world.
I suspect the level of restrictions which allows for that is pretty strict.
I think longer term we will see improved information and testing and that will allow for more localised restrictions for hotspots and a more flexible way of working.
In the meantime we will see innovations that will help ease problems (like, for example, those shields for shop workers).0 -
Really?Stevo_666 said:
Me neither, but how did they know these were Coronavirus hospitalisations?kingstongraham said:
I don't like to click on the Daily Mail either, but the headline is "Revealed: Postcodes surrounding Cheltenham racecourse had county's highest number of coronavirus hospital admissions"Stevo_666 said:
We must be testing enough to know where these hot spots are?surrey_commuter said:interesting article about Cheltenham being a C19 hotspot and the postcodes around the racecourse glowing hottest.
Imagine with the right sort of data the questions about transmission that arise and knowledge of where to concentrate resources.
It gives you an idea of the impact that a DE or SK approach might have
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8249709/Area-Cheltenham-Racecourse-shows-Covid-19-spike.html0 -
Maybe they tested them, which was the point I was making above about doing enough tests to know....kingstongraham said:
Really?Stevo_666 said:
Me neither, but how did they know these were Coronavirus hospitalisations?kingstongraham said:
I don't like to click on the Daily Mail either, but the headline is "Revealed: Postcodes surrounding Cheltenham racecourse had county's highest number of coronavirus hospital admissions"Stevo_666 said:
We must be testing enough to know where these hot spots are?surrey_commuter said:interesting article about Cheltenham being a C19 hotspot and the postcodes around the racecourse glowing hottest.
Imagine with the right sort of data the questions about transmission that arise and knowledge of where to concentrate resources.
It gives you an idea of the impact that a DE or SK approach might have
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8249709/Area-Cheltenham-Racecourse-shows-Covid-19-spike.html"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
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Agreed, it feels like most people are doing it to be the one who makes the most noise. I agree with the sentiment but it has become more about the clapper than the clapee (did you see some of those on the TV clips during the Big Night In?).Longshot said:rick_chasey said:
Pretty sure Britain has a few more months lockdown in it.
I haven't given them the clap once. They have no idea one way or the other. More social media opportunism for the selfie brigade.0 -
I see, you were deliberately missing the point about testing. Understood.Stevo_666 said:
Maybe they tested them, which was the point I was making above about doing enough tests to know....kingstongraham said:
Really?Stevo_666 said:
Me neither, but how did they know these were Coronavirus hospitalisations?kingstongraham said:
I don't like to click on the Daily Mail either, but the headline is "Revealed: Postcodes surrounding Cheltenham racecourse had county's highest number of coronavirus hospital admissions"Stevo_666 said:
We must be testing enough to know where these hot spots are?surrey_commuter said:interesting article about Cheltenham being a C19 hotspot and the postcodes around the racecourse glowing hottest.
Imagine with the right sort of data the questions about transmission that arise and knowledge of where to concentrate resources.
It gives you an idea of the impact that a DE or SK approach might have
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8249709/Area-Cheltenham-Racecourse-shows-Covid-19-spike.html0 -
So you are saying that those who your attention is drawn to on media and social media are looking for attention by sharing it on media and social media. And then extrapolating that across everyone. I can see a flaw.Pross said:
Agreed, it feels like most people are doing it to be the one who makes the most noise. I agree with the sentiment but it has become more about the clapper than the clapee (did you see some of those on the TV clips during the Big Night In?).Longshot said:rick_chasey said:
Pretty sure Britain has a few more months lockdown in it.
I haven't given them the clap once. They have no idea one way or the other. More social media opportunism for the selfie brigade.
As an aside, it does seem to really make the kids on our street happy to make a noise as well as the NHS workers liking it, so it's a win-win.0 -
Good grief I think I agree with you.rick_chasey said:
I think we will likely arrive at the conclusion that people will tolerate lots of death as long as hopsitals are not overflowing and unable to save savable people.First.Aspect said:
You are absolutely right that a bad economic shock can scar a region semi-permanently. I live near what was once mining country. Until a recent spate of new builds for commuters, the local towns were pretty awful with systemic unemployment and deprivation as a result of Thatcher closing basically the only job on town so quickly. That was 35 years ago. Ravenscraig was only built on in the 2000s. You can plot a direct line from that to the SNP's popularity... I digress.rick_chasey said:In the same way folk are saying "you need to accept lots of people are going to die" I think people need to recognise that this is going to be deeply damaging for an economy and there is only so much you can do.
Lifting things before it is safe to do so won't help any economic recovery either.
You can look at all the proper global pandemics in the past and it is always the same - places with the most deaths do the worst; sometimes changing the entire direction of a place's prosperity forever.
I would be shocked if America comes out of this as powerful as it went in. It is hard to take a superpower seriously if it literally cannot look after its own people and is comfortable for thousands to needlessly die (and it elects leaders who suggest injecting disinfectant.)
But I'm not sure you are right about the rest. This isn't a pandemic in the same sense of the Spanish flu - the death rate, though alarming, isn't even remotely close and, if all lockdowns were lifted and it ran riot, the economic impact would be not that great because people of working age are, relatively speaking, not that susceptible.
For the avoidance of doubt I'm not advocating this, but this seems to be the right-wing view in the US and economically, they may in fact steal something of a march on the rest of the world.
I suspect the level of restrictions which allows for that is pretty strict.
I think longer term we will see improved information and testing and that will allow for more localised restrictions for hotspots and a more flexible way of working.
In the meantime we will see innovations that will help ease problems (like, for example, those shields for shop workers).0 -
Not exactly, more that there are people hijacking it for want of a better word. It also seems ironic when you see people out at their front gates not observing social distancing and almost using it as a weekly chance for a catch up. I'd rather they didn't bother televising it and giving the attention seekers what they want. It doesn't really happen on our street (it's a little cul-de-sac). We went out on the second week and there was us, a family two doors down and someone across the street. Of the three houses out two, including ours, are the only ones I know of that work in the NHS or care sectors.kingstongraham said:
So you are saying that those who your attention is drawn to on media and social media are looking for attention by sharing it on media and social media. And then extrapolating that across everyone. I can see a flaw.Pross said:
Agreed, it feels like most people are doing it to be the one who makes the most noise. I agree with the sentiment but it has become more about the clapper than the clapee (did you see some of those on the TV clips during the Big Night In?).Longshot said:rick_chasey said:
Pretty sure Britain has a few more months lockdown in it.
I haven't given them the clap once. They have no idea one way or the other. More social media opportunism for the selfie brigade.
As an aside, it does seem to really make the kids on our street happy to make a noise as well as the NHS workers liking it, so it's a win-win.0 -
I have tried a cursory search to find a better source as I don't think it is productive to dissect a DM story as it is not written for that purpose.Stevo_666 said:
We must be testing enough to know where these hot spots are?surrey_commuter said:interesting article about Cheltenham being a C19 hotspot and the postcodes around the racecourse glowing hottest.
Imagine with the right sort of data the questions about transmission that arise and knowledge of where to concentrate resources.
It gives you an idea of the impact that a DE or SK approach might have
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8249709/Area-Cheltenham-Racecourse-shows-Covid-19-spike.html
I think the numbers are for hospitalisations.
My intrigue is why people living nearby got it? maybe they get free tickets or maybe it tells us something about the spread?
A third of the crowd seems not to have taken it back to ROI with them.
anyway i was referencing germany as the question had been asked how testing helps. seeing a heatmap by postcode of infections shows how it might help a response... if you had it is real time.0 -
I think right now the priority is still getting people in care homes and hospitals tested.surrey_commuter said:
I have tried a cursory search to find a better source as I don't think it is productive to dissect a DM story as it is not written for that purpose.Stevo_666 said:
We must be testing enough to know where these hot spots are?surrey_commuter said:interesting article about Cheltenham being a C19 hotspot and the postcodes around the racecourse glowing hottest.
Imagine with the right sort of data the questions about transmission that arise and knowledge of where to concentrate resources.
It gives you an idea of the impact that a DE or SK approach might have
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8249709/Area-Cheltenham-Racecourse-shows-Covid-19-spike.html
I think the numbers are for hospitalisations.
My intrigue is why people living nearby got it? maybe they get free tickets or maybe it tells us something about the spread?
A third of the crowd seems not to have taken it back to ROI with them.
anyway i was referencing germany as the question had been asked how testing helps. seeing a heatmap by postcode of infections shows how it might help a response... if you had it is real time.
That obviously has big implications on how safely and effectively you can treat/save people.0 -
We mainly differ on my *heavy* criticism of the UK gov't in their initial response.First.Aspect said:
Good grief I think I agree with you.rick_chasey said:
I think we will likely arrive at the conclusion that people will tolerate lots of death as long as hopsitals are not overflowing and unable to save savable people.First.Aspect said:
You are absolutely right that a bad economic shock can scar a region semi-permanently. I live near what was once mining country. Until a recent spate of new builds for commuters, the local towns were pretty awful with systemic unemployment and deprivation as a result of Thatcher closing basically the only job on town so quickly. That was 35 years ago. Ravenscraig was only built on in the 2000s. You can plot a direct line from that to the SNP's popularity... I digress.rick_chasey said:In the same way folk are saying "you need to accept lots of people are going to die" I think people need to recognise that this is going to be deeply damaging for an economy and there is only so much you can do.
Lifting things before it is safe to do so won't help any economic recovery either.
You can look at all the proper global pandemics in the past and it is always the same - places with the most deaths do the worst; sometimes changing the entire direction of a place's prosperity forever.
I would be shocked if America comes out of this as powerful as it went in. It is hard to take a superpower seriously if it literally cannot look after its own people and is comfortable for thousands to needlessly die (and it elects leaders who suggest injecting disinfectant.)
But I'm not sure you are right about the rest. This isn't a pandemic in the same sense of the Spanish flu - the death rate, though alarming, isn't even remotely close and, if all lockdowns were lifted and it ran riot, the economic impact would be not that great because people of working age are, relatively speaking, not that susceptible.
For the avoidance of doubt I'm not advocating this, but this seems to be the right-wing view in the US and economically, they may in fact steal something of a march on the rest of the world.
I suspect the level of restrictions which allows for that is pretty strict.
I think longer term we will see improved information and testing and that will allow for more localised restrictions for hotspots and a more flexible way of working.
In the meantime we will see innovations that will help ease problems (like, for example, those shields for shop workers).
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No, I think you're reading something into my posts that wasn't there.kingstongraham said:
I see, you were deliberately missing the point about testing. Understood.Stevo_666 said:
Maybe they tested them, which was the point I was making above about doing enough tests to know....kingstongraham said:
Really?Stevo_666 said:
Me neither, but how did they know these were Coronavirus hospitalisations?kingstongraham said:
I don't like to click on the Daily Mail either, but the headline is "Revealed: Postcodes surrounding Cheltenham racecourse had county's highest number of coronavirus hospital admissions"Stevo_666 said:
We must be testing enough to know where these hot spots are?surrey_commuter said:interesting article about Cheltenham being a C19 hotspot and the postcodes around the racecourse glowing hottest.
Imagine with the right sort of data the questions about transmission that arise and knowledge of where to concentrate resources.
It gives you an idea of the impact that a DE or SK approach might have
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8249709/Area-Cheltenham-Racecourse-shows-Covid-19-spike.html"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Fair questions - a fair few of the crowd could have been locals, or people could have stayed overnight afterwards and given it to other in the local hotels etc?surrey_commuter said:
I have tried a cursory search to find a better source as I don't think it is productive to dissect a DM story as it is not written for that purpose.Stevo_666 said:
We must be testing enough to know where these hot spots are?surrey_commuter said:interesting article about Cheltenham being a C19 hotspot and the postcodes around the racecourse glowing hottest.
Imagine with the right sort of data the questions about transmission that arise and knowledge of where to concentrate resources.
It gives you an idea of the impact that a DE or SK approach might have
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8249709/Area-Cheltenham-Racecourse-shows-Covid-19-spike.html
I think the numbers are for hospitalisations.
My intrigue is why people living nearby got it? maybe they get free tickets or maybe it tells us something about the spread?
A third of the crowd seems not to have taken it back to ROI with them.
anyway i was referencing germany as the question had been asked how testing helps. seeing a heatmap by postcode of infections shows how it might help a response... if you had it is real time.
Problem is with your real-time tracking point is to pick up all the asymptomatic cases (which is pretty much all infections in the first couple of days or so), then then you need to test so many people so often that I just don''t see how that is feasible."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
On Rick's first paragraph, a lot of people already have got to that point - and it is not so much a case of tolerating it as there may not be a lot of choice other than on the timing of those deaths.First.Aspect said:
Good grief I think I agree with you.rick_chasey said:
I think we will likely arrive at the conclusion that people will tolerate lots of death as long as hopsitals are not overflowing and unable to save savable people.First.Aspect said:
You are absolutely right that a bad economic shock can scar a region semi-permanently. I live near what was once mining country. Until a recent spate of new builds for commuters, the local towns were pretty awful with systemic unemployment and deprivation as a result of Thatcher closing basically the only job on town so quickly. That was 35 years ago. Ravenscraig was only built on in the 2000s. You can plot a direct line from that to the SNP's popularity... I digress.rick_chasey said:In the same way folk are saying "you need to accept lots of people are going to die" I think people need to recognise that this is going to be deeply damaging for an economy and there is only so much you can do.
Lifting things before it is safe to do so won't help any economic recovery either.
You can look at all the proper global pandemics in the past and it is always the same - places with the most deaths do the worst; sometimes changing the entire direction of a place's prosperity forever.
I would be shocked if America comes out of this as powerful as it went in. It is hard to take a superpower seriously if it literally cannot look after its own people and is comfortable for thousands to needlessly die (and it elects leaders who suggest injecting disinfectant.)
But I'm not sure you are right about the rest. This isn't a pandemic in the same sense of the Spanish flu - the death rate, though alarming, isn't even remotely close and, if all lockdowns were lifted and it ran riot, the economic impact would be not that great because people of working age are, relatively speaking, not that susceptible.
For the avoidance of doubt I'm not advocating this, but this seems to be the right-wing view in the US and economically, they may in fact steal something of a march on the rest of the world.
I suspect the level of restrictions which allows for that is pretty strict.
I think longer term we will see improved information and testing and that will allow for more localised restrictions for hotspots and a more flexible way of working.
In the meantime we will see innovations that will help ease problems (like, for example, those shields for shop workers)."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
If a test isn't reliable, how do these guys differentiate between asymptomatic and a false positive?0
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again perfect is the enemy of good.Stevo_666 said:
Fair questions - a fair few of the crowd could have been locals, or people could have stayed overnight afterwards and given it to other in the local hotels etc?surrey_commuter said:
I have tried a cursory search to find a better source as I don't think it is productive to dissect a DM story as it is not written for that purpose.Stevo_666 said:
We must be testing enough to know where these hot spots are?surrey_commuter said:interesting article about Cheltenham being a C19 hotspot and the postcodes around the racecourse glowing hottest.
Imagine with the right sort of data the questions about transmission that arise and knowledge of where to concentrate resources.
It gives you an idea of the impact that a DE or SK approach might have
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8249709/Area-Cheltenham-Racecourse-shows-Covid-19-spike.html
I think the numbers are for hospitalisations.
My intrigue is why people living nearby got it? maybe they get free tickets or maybe it tells us something about the spread?
A third of the crowd seems not to have taken it back to ROI with them.
anyway i was referencing germany as the question had been asked how testing helps. seeing a heatmap by postcode of infections shows how it might help a response... if you had it is real time.
Problem is with your real-time tracking point is to pick up all the asymptomatic cases (which is pretty much all infections in the first couple of days or so), then then you need to test so many people so often that I just don''t see how that is feasible.
It has been asked on here more than once why testing would lower deaths.
That story coupled with the possibility of 100,000 tests a day (they just need to say yes to private/uni labs) gives you the prospect a giant heatmap showing contagion by postcode, age, sex, ethnicity and any other data you want to check. If you gave them a URN you could track their progress. If they downloaded an app it could help the Govt understand and deal with the virus
will it be perfect? no! you and many others may see that as a reason to not do it but to me in the grand scheme of things it is as cheap as chips and could save us hundreds of billions of pounds.0 -
would you rate their current performance better, same or worse than their initial responserick_chasey said:
We mainly differ on my *heavy* criticism of the UK gov't in their initial response.First.Aspect said:
Good grief I think I agree with you.rick_chasey said:
I think we will likely arrive at the conclusion that people will tolerate lots of death as long as hopsitals are not overflowing and unable to save savable people.First.Aspect said:
You are absolutely right that a bad economic shock can scar a region semi-permanently. I live near what was once mining country. Until a recent spate of new builds for commuters, the local towns were pretty awful with systemic unemployment and deprivation as a result of Thatcher closing basically the only job on town so quickly. That was 35 years ago. Ravenscraig was only built on in the 2000s. You can plot a direct line from that to the SNP's popularity... I digress.rick_chasey said:In the same way folk are saying "you need to accept lots of people are going to die" I think people need to recognise that this is going to be deeply damaging for an economy and there is only so much you can do.
Lifting things before it is safe to do so won't help any economic recovery either.
You can look at all the proper global pandemics in the past and it is always the same - places with the most deaths do the worst; sometimes changing the entire direction of a place's prosperity forever.
I would be shocked if America comes out of this as powerful as it went in. It is hard to take a superpower seriously if it literally cannot look after its own people and is comfortable for thousands to needlessly die (and it elects leaders who suggest injecting disinfectant.)
But I'm not sure you are right about the rest. This isn't a pandemic in the same sense of the Spanish flu - the death rate, though alarming, isn't even remotely close and, if all lockdowns were lifted and it ran riot, the economic impact would be not that great because people of working age are, relatively speaking, not that susceptible.
For the avoidance of doubt I'm not advocating this, but this seems to be the right-wing view in the US and economically, they may in fact steal something of a march on the rest of the world.
I suspect the level of restrictions which allows for that is pretty strict.
I think longer term we will see improved information and testing and that will allow for more localised restrictions for hotspots and a more flexible way of working.
In the meantime we will see innovations that will help ease problems (like, for example, those shields for shop workers).
I see three phases
1 - let it run it's course
2 - containment
3. easing containment
first phase was madness,
they did containment late but well
they really need to get cracking on easement0 -
It was you who mentioned real time tracking by postcode, which seemed to me aiming for the ideal rather than for the practical and achievable. I'm not saying don't test, just that there are limitations and that it needs to be part of a raft of countermeasures.surrey_commuter said:
again perfect is the enemy of good.Stevo_666 said:
Fair questions - a fair few of the crowd could have been locals, or people could have stayed overnight afterwards and given it to other in the local hotels etc?surrey_commuter said:
I have tried a cursory search to find a better source as I don't think it is productive to dissect a DM story as it is not written for that purpose.Stevo_666 said:
We must be testing enough to know where these hot spots are?surrey_commuter said:interesting article about Cheltenham being a C19 hotspot and the postcodes around the racecourse glowing hottest.
Imagine with the right sort of data the questions about transmission that arise and knowledge of where to concentrate resources.
It gives you an idea of the impact that a DE or SK approach might have
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8249709/Area-Cheltenham-Racecourse-shows-Covid-19-spike.html
I think the numbers are for hospitalisations.
My intrigue is why people living nearby got it? maybe they get free tickets or maybe it tells us something about the spread?
A third of the crowd seems not to have taken it back to ROI with them.
anyway i was referencing germany as the question had been asked how testing helps. seeing a heatmap by postcode of infections shows how it might help a response... if you had it is real time.
Problem is with your real-time tracking point is to pick up all the asymptomatic cases (which is pretty much all infections in the first couple of days or so), then then you need to test so many people so often that I just don''t see how that is feasible.
It has been asked on here more than once why testing would lower deaths.
That story coupled with the possibility of 100,000 tests a day (they just need to say yes to private/uni labs) gives you the prospect a giant heatmap showing contagion by postcode, age, sex, ethnicity and any other data you want to check. If you gave them a URN you could track their progress. If they downloaded an app it could help the Govt understand and deal with the virus
will it be perfect? no! you and many others may see that as a reason to not do it but to me in the grand scheme of things it is as cheap as chips and could save us hundreds of billions of pounds."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
It's a few hundred people hospitalised and about 125 deaths. Big for Cheltenham, but not that significant in national terms.Stevo_666 said:
Maybe they tested them, which was the point I was making above about doing enough tests to know....kingstongraham said:
Really?Stevo_666 said:
Me neither, but how did they know these were Coronavirus hospitalisations?kingstongraham said:
I don't like to click on the Daily Mail either, but the headline is "Revealed: Postcodes surrounding Cheltenham racecourse had county's highest number of coronavirus hospital admissions"Stevo_666 said:
We must be testing enough to know where these hot spots are?surrey_commuter said:interesting article about Cheltenham being a C19 hotspot and the postcodes around the racecourse glowing hottest.
Imagine with the right sort of data the questions about transmission that arise and knowledge of where to concentrate resources.
It gives you an idea of the impact that a DE or SK approach might have
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8249709/Area-Cheltenham-Racecourse-shows-Covid-19-spike.html1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
they have done the test and they have input the postcode - all you have to do is build a dashboardStevo_666 said:
It was you who mentioned real time tracking by postcode, which seemed to me aiming for the ideal rather than for the practical and achievable. I'm not saying don't test, just that there are limitations and that it needs to be part of a raft of countermeasures.surrey_commuter said:
again perfect is the enemy of good.Stevo_666 said:
Fair questions - a fair few of the crowd could have been locals, or people could have stayed overnight afterwards and given it to other in the local hotels etc?surrey_commuter said:
I have tried a cursory search to find a better source as I don't think it is productive to dissect a DM story as it is not written for that purpose.Stevo_666 said:
We must be testing enough to know where these hot spots are?surrey_commuter said:interesting article about Cheltenham being a C19 hotspot and the postcodes around the racecourse glowing hottest.
Imagine with the right sort of data the questions about transmission that arise and knowledge of where to concentrate resources.
It gives you an idea of the impact that a DE or SK approach might have
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8249709/Area-Cheltenham-Racecourse-shows-Covid-19-spike.html
I think the numbers are for hospitalisations.
My intrigue is why people living nearby got it? maybe they get free tickets or maybe it tells us something about the spread?
A third of the crowd seems not to have taken it back to ROI with them.
anyway i was referencing germany as the question had been asked how testing helps. seeing a heatmap by postcode of infections shows how it might help a response... if you had it is real time.
Problem is with your real-time tracking point is to pick up all the asymptomatic cases (which is pretty much all infections in the first couple of days or so), then then you need to test so many people so often that I just don''t see how that is feasible.
It has been asked on here more than once why testing would lower deaths.
That story coupled with the possibility of 100,000 tests a day (they just need to say yes to private/uni labs) gives you the prospect a giant heatmap showing contagion by postcode, age, sex, ethnicity and any other data you want to check. If you gave them a URN you could track their progress. If they downloaded an app it could help the Govt understand and deal with the virus
will it be perfect? no! you and many others may see that as a reason to not do it but to me in the grand scheme of things it is as cheap as chips and could save us hundreds of billions of pounds.
or we could carry on waiting six weeks to see how many people have died.
why are you not more bothered about the lack of urgency in getting the economy moving again?0 -
More bothered than what?surrey_commuter said:
they have done the test and they have input the postcode - all you have to do is build a dashboardStevo_666 said:
It was you who mentioned real time tracking by postcode, which seemed to me aiming for the ideal rather than for the practical and achievable. I'm not saying don't test, just that there are limitations and that it needs to be part of a raft of countermeasures.surrey_commuter said:
again perfect is the enemy of good.Stevo_666 said:
Fair questions - a fair few of the crowd could have been locals, or people could have stayed overnight afterwards and given it to other in the local hotels etc?surrey_commuter said:
I have tried a cursory search to find a better source as I don't think it is productive to dissect a DM story as it is not written for that purpose.Stevo_666 said:
We must be testing enough to know where these hot spots are?surrey_commuter said:interesting article about Cheltenham being a C19 hotspot and the postcodes around the racecourse glowing hottest.
Imagine with the right sort of data the questions about transmission that arise and knowledge of where to concentrate resources.
It gives you an idea of the impact that a DE or SK approach might have
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8249709/Area-Cheltenham-Racecourse-shows-Covid-19-spike.html
I think the numbers are for hospitalisations.
My intrigue is why people living nearby got it? maybe they get free tickets or maybe it tells us something about the spread?
A third of the crowd seems not to have taken it back to ROI with them.
anyway i was referencing germany as the question had been asked how testing helps. seeing a heatmap by postcode of infections shows how it might help a response... if you had it is real time.
Problem is with your real-time tracking point is to pick up all the asymptomatic cases (which is pretty much all infections in the first couple of days or so), then then you need to test so many people so often that I just don''t see how that is feasible.
It has been asked on here more than once why testing would lower deaths.
That story coupled with the possibility of 100,000 tests a day (they just need to say yes to private/uni labs) gives you the prospect a giant heatmap showing contagion by postcode, age, sex, ethnicity and any other data you want to check. If you gave them a URN you could track their progress. If they downloaded an app it could help the Govt understand and deal with the virus
will it be perfect? no! you and many others may see that as a reason to not do it but to me in the grand scheme of things it is as cheap as chips and could save us hundreds of billions of pounds.
or we could carry on waiting six weeks to see how many people have died.
why are you not more bothered about the lack of urgency in getting the economy moving again?"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Whilst i agree your actions dictate the likelihood of catching it. However once you have it then how you respond is luck of the draw given there is no treatment and therefore those deaths are predetermined.rjsterry said:Lockdown or no lockdown these people will succumb to this illness regardless.
There seems to be a rather medieval view that the deaths from C19 are somehow predetermined. The only certainty is that some people will succumb - which people and how many is down to a mixture of chance and our actions; there's no such thing as fate.0 -
with a bit of determination a fatty could have shed 10 kilos by now.john80 said:
Whilst i agree your actions dictate the likelihood of catching it. However once you have it then how you respond is luck of the draw given there is no treatment and therefore those deaths are predetermined.rjsterry said:Lockdown or no lockdown these people will succumb to this illness regardless.
There seems to be a rather medieval view that the deaths from C19 are somehow predetermined. The only certainty is that some people will succumb - which people and how many is down to a mixture of chance and our actions; there's no such thing as fate.0 -
you don't seem to be advocating policies which would allow us to ease lockdown quicker than seems currently likely.Stevo_666 said:
More bothered than what?surrey_commuter said:
they have done the test and they have input the postcode - all you have to do is build a dashboardStevo_666 said:
It was you who mentioned real time tracking by postcode, which seemed to me aiming for the ideal rather than for the practical and achievable. I'm not saying don't test, just that there are limitations and that it needs to be part of a raft of countermeasures.surrey_commuter said:
again perfect is the enemy of good.Stevo_666 said:
Fair questions - a fair few of the crowd could have been locals, or people could have stayed overnight afterwards and given it to other in the local hotels etc?surrey_commuter said:
I have tried a cursory search to find a better source as I don't think it is productive to dissect a DM story as it is not written for that purpose.Stevo_666 said:
We must be testing enough to know where these hot spots are?surrey_commuter said:interesting article about Cheltenham being a C19 hotspot and the postcodes around the racecourse glowing hottest.
Imagine with the right sort of data the questions about transmission that arise and knowledge of where to concentrate resources.
It gives you an idea of the impact that a DE or SK approach might have
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8249709/Area-Cheltenham-Racecourse-shows-Covid-19-spike.html
I think the numbers are for hospitalisations.
My intrigue is why people living nearby got it? maybe they get free tickets or maybe it tells us something about the spread?
A third of the crowd seems not to have taken it back to ROI with them.
anyway i was referencing germany as the question had been asked how testing helps. seeing a heatmap by postcode of infections shows how it might help a response... if you had it is real time.
Problem is with your real-time tracking point is to pick up all the asymptomatic cases (which is pretty much all infections in the first couple of days or so), then then you need to test so many people so often that I just don''t see how that is feasible.
It has been asked on here more than once why testing would lower deaths.
That story coupled with the possibility of 100,000 tests a day (they just need to say yes to private/uni labs) gives you the prospect a giant heatmap showing contagion by postcode, age, sex, ethnicity and any other data you want to check. If you gave them a URN you could track their progress. If they downloaded an app it could help the Govt understand and deal with the virus
will it be perfect? no! you and many others may see that as a reason to not do it but to me in the grand scheme of things it is as cheap as chips and could save us hundreds of billions of pounds.
or we could carry on waiting six weeks to see how many people have died.
why are you not more bothered about the lack of urgency in getting the economy moving again?0 -
I’m fairly sure that they will be grateful of you not giving them the clap. 😉Longshot said:rick_chasey said:
Pretty sure Britain has a few more months lockdown in it.
I haven't given them the clap once. They have no idea one way or the other. More social media opportunism for the selfie brigade.
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
I don't understand this, because your initial response was to just let nature take it's course! Whereas the Governments has always been to make sure the NHS can cope with demand.rick_chasey said:
We mainly differ on my *heavy* criticism of the UK gov't in their initial response.First.Aspect said:
Good grief I think I agree with you.rick_chasey said:
I think we will likely arrive at the conclusion that people will tolerate lots of death as long as hopsitals are not overflowing and unable to save savable people.First.Aspect said:
You are absolutely right that a bad economic shock can scar a region semi-permanently. I live near what was once mining country. Until a recent spate of new builds for commuters, the local towns were pretty awful with systemic unemployment and deprivation as a result of Thatcher closing basically the only job on town so quickly. That was 35 years ago. Ravenscraig was only built on in the 2000s. You can plot a direct line from that to the SNP's popularity... I digress.rick_chasey said:In the same way folk are saying "you need to accept lots of people are going to die" I think people need to recognise that this is going to be deeply damaging for an economy and there is only so much you can do.
Lifting things before it is safe to do so won't help any economic recovery either.
You can look at all the proper global pandemics in the past and it is always the same - places with the most deaths do the worst; sometimes changing the entire direction of a place's prosperity forever.
I would be shocked if America comes out of this as powerful as it went in. It is hard to take a superpower seriously if it literally cannot look after its own people and is comfortable for thousands to needlessly die (and it elects leaders who suggest injecting disinfectant.)
But I'm not sure you are right about the rest. This isn't a pandemic in the same sense of the Spanish flu - the death rate, though alarming, isn't even remotely close and, if all lockdowns were lifted and it ran riot, the economic impact would be not that great because people of working age are, relatively speaking, not that susceptible.
For the avoidance of doubt I'm not advocating this, but this seems to be the right-wing view in the US and economically, they may in fact steal something of a march on the rest of the world.
I suspect the level of restrictions which allows for that is pretty strict.
I think longer term we will see improved information and testing and that will allow for more localised restrictions for hotspots and a more flexible way of working.
In the meantime we will see innovations that will help ease problems (like, for example, those shields for shop workers).
Yes, no question the Government should have been quicker on the uptake with PPE and Ventilators.0 -
As you might expect I'm well aware of the economic point.surrey_commuter said:
you don't seem to be advocating policies which would allow us to ease lockdown quicker than seems currently likely.Stevo_666 said:
More bothered than what?surrey_commuter said:
they have done the test and they have input the postcode - all you have to do is build a dashboardStevo_666 said:
It was you who mentioned real time tracking by postcode, which seemed to me aiming for the ideal rather than for the practical and achievable. I'm not saying don't test, just that there are limitations and that it needs to be part of a raft of countermeasures.surrey_commuter said:
again perfect is the enemy of good.Stevo_666 said:
Fair questions - a fair few of the crowd could have been locals, or people could have stayed overnight afterwards and given it to other in the local hotels etc?surrey_commuter said:
I have tried a cursory search to find a better source as I don't think it is productive to dissect a DM story as it is not written for that purpose.Stevo_666 said:
We must be testing enough to know where these hot spots are?surrey_commuter said:interesting article about Cheltenham being a C19 hotspot and the postcodes around the racecourse glowing hottest.
Imagine with the right sort of data the questions about transmission that arise and knowledge of where to concentrate resources.
It gives you an idea of the impact that a DE or SK approach might have
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8249709/Area-Cheltenham-Racecourse-shows-Covid-19-spike.html
I think the numbers are for hospitalisations.
My intrigue is why people living nearby got it? maybe they get free tickets or maybe it tells us something about the spread?
A third of the crowd seems not to have taken it back to ROI with them.
anyway i was referencing germany as the question had been asked how testing helps. seeing a heatmap by postcode of infections shows how it might help a response... if you had it is real time.
Problem is with your real-time tracking point is to pick up all the asymptomatic cases (which is pretty much all infections in the first couple of days or so), then then you need to test so many people so often that I just don''t see how that is feasible.
It has been asked on here more than once why testing would lower deaths.
That story coupled with the possibility of 100,000 tests a day (they just need to say yes to private/uni labs) gives you the prospect a giant heatmap showing contagion by postcode, age, sex, ethnicity and any other data you want to check. If you gave them a URN you could track their progress. If they downloaded an app it could help the Govt understand and deal with the virus
will it be perfect? no! you and many others may see that as a reason to not do it but to me in the grand scheme of things it is as cheap as chips and could save us hundreds of billions of pounds.
or we could carry on waiting six weeks to see how many people have died.
why are you not more bothered about the lack of urgency in getting the economy moving again?
I previously suggested keeping the elderly and vulnerable 'locked down' as far as possible, for example. And maintaing some sensible distancing where possible. Not all of this will be policy though, some will be down to us. And there will be a degree of risk involved.
What are you proposing?"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
I am more worried about the economy. I would learn whatever can be learnt from overseas and use that to ease lockdown as soon as possible
In practical terms this would mean a target of matching the Germans for testing and tracing
Edit: I mean the opposite of “target”0
