Coronavirus and pro sport

pblakeney

As I've pointed out in the other thread, how many pros will choose to be in the peloton? Get that question answered before moving forward.

blazing_saddles

pblakeney said:

As I've pointed out in the other thread, how many pros will choose to be in the peloton? Get that question answered before moving forward.

Imo, when things eventually begin to return to normal, there will be very few pros left in the pro peloton. This isn't football.
The idea that sponsors, under normal conditions, would continue to pour money down the drain indefinitely, is fanciful.
In the current economic climate, it's pure fantasy.

DeVlaeminck

If it's 2021 then it's 2021 - the thing is experts disagree about when a more normal life will be able to resume so it'd be foolish to bet the house on it being 2021 and then finding out we could have had racing in 2021 after all.

Re. pros choosing to be in the race - pretty sure they would.

pblakeney

Oh, I agree. Everything is fooked. And I do mean everything.
Point still stands. Are there any pro cyclists looking forward to be in a peloton?

DeVlaeminck

Why wouldn't they?

RichN95.

pblakeney said:

Oh, I agree. Everything is fooked. And I do mean everything.
Point still stands. Are there any pro cyclists looking forward to be in a peloton?

This is a sport where we have seen riders die in a stage race and then the riders get and ride the next day. They're not going to be afraid of a bit of flu which effects most people mildly.

How long are you going to stay in isolation for, quaking in fear? 18 months until there's a vaccine?

Wheelspinner

Makes me giggle to see the continued references to the TdF (and any other professional activity like football, wrestling, darts etc) as "sport".

It isn't.

It's business, and that business is entertainment. It's reality TV no different from Big Brother or Strictly Come Dancing or any other packaged for TV product.

There are two distinct parties involved - the race organisers, TV networks, sponsors and all the other investors who gain from the TV viewing numbers is one lot, and the other is the paid talent (performers in the show) AKA the athletes and teams they represent.

They are just that - performers. All sport is just a pastime with arbitrary rules to provide a diversion from the daily blah. See "Rome - Coliseum - Lions V Christians" for early example.

Whether the current crop of pro riders in the peloton would turn up or not is entirely moot - if there was an event run offering money to people to ride their bikes around France, then there'd be no shortage of applicants for that job, irrespective of the personal health risk involved. They might be third or fourth Cat riders from the local clubs but many would jump at the chance. People are always going to be stupid and greedy and willing to take a risk, sod anyone else. Whether the end spectacle would be any good is debatable.

The biggest issue is whether the event could be organised and run *safely* with no collateral impact on the community at large and that includes all the organising people, broadcast facilities, accommodation and other stuff that goes with it. Like any event that goes through a local town, plenty of the locals will resent the intrusion, and be looking for *any* opportunity to whinge, complain, and make trouble at the slightest problem.

Remember no insurance company would go near such an event in current scenario with a million foot pole, so the organisers lot would have to wear the cost of any subsequent legal issues if and or when something goes wrong.

Start a renewed infection pandemic accidentally in a small town in France and watch the lawsuits explode into action.

I can imagine a pro sport thing like football actually happening, since it's enclosed, no crowds is easily done, and limited in the potential impact on a widespread community, but outdoors like a bike race? Not a chance in hell.

kingstongraham

RichN95. said:

pblakeney said:

Oh, I agree. Everything is fooked. And I do mean everything.
Point still stands. Are there any pro cyclists looking forward to be in a peloton?

This is a sport where we have seen riders die in a stage race and then the riders get and ride the next day. They're not going to be afraid of a bit of flu which effects most people mildly.

How long are you going to stay in isolation for, quaking in fear? 18 months until there's a vaccine?

Give it a week and see how this take ages here. Then we can reassess.

rick_chasey

RichN95. said:

pblakeney said:

Oh, I agree. Everything is fooked. And I do mean everything.
Point still stands. Are there any pro cyclists looking forward to be in a peloton?

This is a sport where we have seen riders die in a stage race and then the riders get and ride the next day. They're not going to be afraid of a bit of flu which effects most people mildly.

How long are you going to stay in isolation for, quaking in fear? 18 months until there's a vaccine?

Do I need to post the Spanish flu chart again?

I can’t see a way out of cycles of lockdowns unless someone else can explain why that wouldn’t happen. You really don’t need many people, as a proportion of the population, to be ill to overload the healthcare systems. Not even a million people in Italy have had it and they already have had 8,000 odd deaths as a result of it.

A big problem as such you’d have is the high likelihood of it being shutdown halfway through.

Also this setup is rife for doping abuse.

Finally, I take issue with “quaking in fear”. You think being brave and not isolating is gonna help?

rick_chasey

And as for all the pro-business means we must lift the lockdown. On a macro level that is stupid. Here’s a paper outlining why:

Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3561560

Check out the post-flu higher growth higher employment towns in the chart - they went harder and longer on lockdown measures during the plague.

DeVlaeminck

Rich has already said that if lock down is in place this wouldn't happen.

It is highly likely that at some point we are going to have to relax restrictions considerably and live with a level of virus in the population until such point that we have a vaccine or we've mostly all had it. Personally I doubt we'll see the Tour over 3 weeks this July but it's not impossible in some form at some time.

pblakeney

DeVlaeminck said:

Why wouldn't they?

As I said, ask them.

ocdupalais

A doctor friend of mine treating patients in London says that they are seeing some poorer outcomes of the virus in younger people who had been to a HIT session (or other high intensity activity) prior to displaying symptoms. It’s early days to categorically state a correlation, but one theory is that the respiratory system (and heart) can be stressed for a couple of days after such a session, thereby allowing the virus to do greater damage.

The logistics aside, if this link between extreme exercise and worse virus outcomes shows to be the case, I can’t see how they’ll let 200 twenty-something’s smash themselves around France.

coopster_the_1st

ocdupalais said:

A doctor friend of mine treating patients in London says that they are seeing some poorer outcomes of the virus in younger people who had been to a HIT session (or other high intensity activity) prior to displaying symptoms. It’s early days to categorically state a correlation, but one theory is that the respiratory system (and heart) can be stressed for a couple of days after such a session, thereby allowing the virus to do greater damage.

The logistics aside, if this link between extreme exercise and worse virus outcomes shows to be the case, I can’t see how they’ll let 200 twenty-something’s smash themselves around France.

I am reading similar anecdotal stories from people who believe they have had C19 but in the middle of the illness. They get ill, feel much better after a number of days, exercise because they think they are recovered and then get a second wave of the virus worse than the first. Stressing the respiratory system does seem to be a high risk too soon after you think you have recovered from C19

blazing_saddles

rick_chasey said:

And as for all the pro-business means we must lift the lockdown. On a macro level that is stupid. Here’s a paper outlining why:

Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3561560

Check out the post-flu higher growth higher employment towns in the chart - they went harder and longer on lockdown measures during the plague.

Cardiff retailers disagree with your paper.

http://www.retailtimes.co.uk/53-of-cardiff-businesses-at-risk-of-permanent-closure-due-to-covid-19/

rick_chasey

I'm not sure you're understanding.

*of course* there will be some serious economic damage. I'm not dismissing that or making light of that. If anything, I think a lot of people are under-estimating *how bad* the economic cost will be. It will be brutal.

But having materially more people die as a result of it will not improve their situation and indeed, it will be more costly and make the recovery more painful.

rick_chasey

ocdupalais said:

A doctor friend of mine treating patients in London says that they are seeing some poorer outcomes of the virus in younger people who had been to a HIT session (or other high intensity activity) prior to displaying symptoms. It’s early days to categorically state a correlation, but one theory is that the respiratory system (and heart) can be stressed for a couple of days after such a session, thereby allowing the virus to do greater damage.

The logistics aside, if this link between extreme exercise and worse virus outcomes shows to be the case, I can’t see how they’ll let 200 twenty-something’s smash themselves around France.

Ah, I literally just did one last night. Thanks - I'll stop!

sherer

RichN95. said:

sherer said:

you cant just put logos on screens like that due to different global laws. You COULD do virtual advertising, as that is allowed, but would need a massive expenditure from ASO to get that setup. They dont do it at the moment, so i suspect they arent setup for that.

That could also meant they then need to produce more than one feed, based on existing contracts, so that would again mean an increase in the TV crew, plus all the riggers to set that up on a daily basis.

No it just needs to be on the French broadcast. Maybe put some livery on the support vehicles. Sponsors can be negotiated with. Hospitality deals are more of a problem.

sherer said:

Le Tor is still a huge TV operation, even for something that is basically filmed with a few cameras on the back of a bike. It's not a matter of jusr connecting a camera to the internet and streaming it, if it was the industry would be saving loads and moving to that.

I am involved in this for a living, so do have a bit of an idea how much is involved in getting a sports broadcast out.

Le Tour is a huge TV operation. Usually. But something like the Tour of Valencia isn't or the Women's races broadcast on YouTube, and we watch that just fine. We can sacrifice a Moto devoted to French riders getting dropped. How about we go old school and just have highlights. People are always saying the 80s was good, so now people can experience it for real.

No offence but you clealrly have no idea about boradcasting and how this works, how feeds are produced and how pictures are distributed. You are just an armchair fan coming up with ideas based on no knowdledge.

Even though I do this for a different sport, ive no idea how exactly how the ASO do it so cant comment with any certainty, but do know it's far more complicated than you know, and your comments show your lack of understanding.

In order to get highlights you need to film the entire thing, highlights also mean less advert breaks, so less money for broadcasters.

It's all a mute point at the moment as France is still in a lock down, as are other countries that the riders come from. Sport has been put on hold, until that restriction is lifted this is all a pipe dream.

DeVlaeminck

pblakeney said:

DeVlaeminck said:

Why wouldn't they?

As I said, ask them.

Well the only pro cyclist I know was still arranging group rides until it was pointed out to him in the training chat that we really shouldn't be. I don't blame him you don't get that good at cycling without it being your life.

RichN95.

rick_chasey said:

Do I need to post the Spanish flu chart again?

I can’t see a way out of cycles of lockdowns unless someone else can explain why that wouldn’t happen. You really don’t need many people, as a proportion of the population, to be ill to overload the healthcare systems. Not even a million people in Italy have had it and they already have had 8,000 odd deaths as a result of it.

A big problem as such you’d have is the high likelihood of it being shutdown halfway through.

Also this setup is rife for doping abuse.

Finally, I take issue with “quaking in fear”. You think being brave and not isolating is gonna help?

Yes, post it again. Maybe this time look at the label on the Y axis. It shows the lethality of the virus. The second wave was caused by a mutation not Philippe Thys.
Unless the virus dies out (unlikely) or everyone is kept in permanent lockdown until 50% of the world population is vaccinated, then a second wave of a some sort is almost inevitable

The reality is that this virus is here to stay in some form until it runs out of people to infect. Hopefully it will mutate into something less lethal. Lockdowns are about managing healthcare, not eliminating the virus. To allay you concerns fully we may as well shut down cycling for the next five years.

And why would there be a high likelihood of it being shut down? This is a fairly isolated bubble of people riding (all tested) at a time when new cases would be maybe around 100 a week in France. The odds of infection are actually very long. They are far, far greater risks in everyday living.

(And I'm isolating as everyone should be, but I'm not worried about going to the supermarket).

Longshot

blazing_saddles said:

rick_chasey said:

And as for all the pro-business means we must lift the lockdown. On a macro level that is stupid. Here’s a paper outlining why:

Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3561560

Check out the post-flu higher growth higher employment towns in the chart - they went harder and longer on lockdown measures during the plague.

Cardiff retailers disagree with your paper.

http://www.retailtimes.co.uk/53-of-cardiff-businesses-at-risk-of-permanent-closure-due-to-covid-19/

With all due respect, B&M retailers were in trouble long before CV19.

pblakeney

DeVlaeminck said:

pblakeney said:

DeVlaeminck said:

Why wouldn't they?

As I said, ask them.

Well the only pro cyclist I know was still arranging group rides until it was pointed out to him in the training chat that we really shouldn't be. I don't blame him you don't get that good at cycling without it being your life.

Fair point, well made. But I am guessing in Britain last week before this started getting more real. Anyway, we are all guessing, speculating and basically talking sh!t.
Ain't happening unless there is some dramatic change, and none appears to be on the immediate horizon.

blazing_saddles

Longshot said:

blazing_saddles said:

rick_chasey said:

And as for all the pro-business means we must lift the lockdown. On a macro level that is stupid. Here’s a paper outlining why:

Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3561560

Check out the post-flu higher growth higher employment towns in the chart - they went harder and longer on lockdown measures during the plague.

Cardiff retailers disagree with your paper.

http://www.retailtimes.co.uk/53-of-cardiff-businesses-at-risk-of-permanent-closure-due-to-covid-19/

With all due respect, B&M retailers were in trouble long before CV19.

We are getting side tracked here, so I won't dwell on the point: that being that if this is the situation in Cardiff, imagine how smaller towns in less well off areas will fare.

rick_chasey

RichN95. said:

rick_chasey said:

Do I need to post the Spanish flu chart again?

I can’t see a way out of cycles of lockdowns unless someone else can explain why that wouldn’t happen. You really don’t need many people, as a proportion of the population, to be ill to overload the healthcare systems. Not even a million people in Italy have had it and they already have had 8,000 odd deaths as a result of it.

A big problem as such you’d have is the high likelihood of it being shutdown halfway through.

Also this setup is rife for doping abuse.

Finally, I take issue with “quaking in fear”. You think being brave and not isolating is gonna help?

Yes, post it again. Maybe this time look at the label on the Y axis. It shows the lethality of the virus. The second wave was caused by a mutation not Philippe Thys.
Unless the virus dies out (unlikely) or everyone is kept in permanent lockdown until 50% of the world population is vaccinated, then a second wave of a some sort is almost inevitable

The reality is that this virus is here to stay in some form until it runs out of people to infect. Hopefully it will mutate into something less lethal. Lockdowns are about managing healthcare, not eliminating the virus. To allay you concerns fully we may as well shut down cycling for the next five years.

And why would there be a high likelihood of it being shut down? This is a fairly isolated bubble of people riding (all tested) at a time when new cases would be maybe around 100 a week in France. The odds of infection are actually very long. They are far, far greater risks in everyday living.

(And I'm isolating as everyone should be, but I'm not worried about going to the supermarket).

Nothing you've said persuades me that anything other than a cycle of lockdowns will happen until a vaccine is found, given the relatively low numbers of infections that are required to overload the health system.

Therefore, in that environment, having a travelling circus, with all the local infrastructure it has to use (hotels, etc), strikes me as a particularly bad idea.

Road cycling, especially tours, are not really quarantine friendly.

blazing_saddles

Indefinite sporting lockdown then? Not going to happen as the BBC report the cracks are already beginning to show:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52063085

Picking up on one line that also relates to pro cycling:

What the Premier League is reliant on is the goodwill of broadcasters and sponsors.

Also. The England and Wales Cricket Board could install coronavirus checkpoints and isolation units at grounds in order to resume the game behind closed doors.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/52063330

blazing_saddles

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1243497891978756096

No_Ta_Doctor

I think that the idea that what the world is waiting for is a vaccine is probably wrong. Yes, we need one before we can get back to anything approaching full normality, but it isn't the first priority.

If you look at the broad range of lock-down measures you can see that the first option is travel restriction - China, for example, have closed airports to incoming flights as people started bringing the virus back from abroad once they'd largely got things contained in mainland China.

Travel restrictions alone are obviously not enough - this needs to be coupled with a rigorous testing approach. We need to be able to identify and isolate anyone carrying the virus.

So while we can probably expect rolling lockdowns in the foreseeable future, if we have quick, efficient and cheap testing these may not need to last as long or be so drastic as they are at present. Effective screening at ports of entry between areas could allow localised lockdowns where required, with the first step travel restrictions implemented quickly whenever case numbers started to rise in an area. So the priority is quick, efficient and cheap testing.

The machinery for coping with an epidemic is also being ramped up, health services are investing in respirators, personal protective equipment etc (lots more to be done and demand is outstripping supply) but these are key elements both of coping with case capacity and preventing spread in hospitals (a key infection route in Italy).

The issue for the Tour will most likely be that it's a rolling area-by-area transmission threat. Travel restrictions will play havoc with it. Countries and areas that have largely got on top of their own virus cases will always be at risk from pools of infection elsewhere. You'd need e.g. daily testing of all riders and support staff and organisers and media to ensure they were clean before moving between areas, as well as when they first enter France, and even then any area they were due to race in could shut down pretty much overnight.

RichN95.

blazing_saddles said:

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1243497891978756096

Matt Hancock, too. This reminds we of the eve of the 2006 Tour when we all looked to see who would be next to be struck down by the Puertovirus

bobmcstuff

Longshot said:

blazing_saddles said:

rick_chasey said:

And as for all the pro-business means we must lift the lockdown. On a macro level that is stupid. Here’s a paper outlining why:

Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3561560

Check out the post-flu higher growth higher employment towns in the chart - they went harder and longer on lockdown measures during the plague.

Cardiff retailers disagree with your paper.

http://www.retailtimes.co.uk/53-of-cardiff-businesses-at-risk-of-permanent-closure-due-to-covid-19/

With all due respect, B&M retailers were in trouble long before CV19.

What this is doing, at least for now, is exposing businesses who were already under a lot of stress and probably were close to failure anyway (Flybe etc.). There's a lot of companies at the moment who are only able to keep operating because borrowing costs are so low at the moment, in times past they would have failed a long time ago.

Intu (owners of the Trafford Centre etc.) have said they are very likely to go bust as well, but their problems didn't start with Covid-19 - they have just been made more pressing by the virus.

RichN95.

bobmcstuff said:

What this is doing, at least for now, is exposing businesses who were already under a lot of stress and probably were close to failure anyway (Flybe etc.). There's a lot of companies at the moment who are only able to keep operating because borrowing costs are so low at the moment, in times past they would have failed a long time ago.

Intu (owners of the Trafford Centre etc.) have said they are very likely to go bust as well, but their problems didn't start with Covid-19 - they have just been made more pressing by the virus.

As someone who (usually) works in Cardiff centre - it's normally very busy and no vacant properties. If that's failing either it's horribly managed or no city retail has a hope.