Should Mark Cavendish swallow his pride and retire?
Comments
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Like I said earlier or elsewhere, Cav was doing a lot of Zwifting in the Christmas build up.3
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They don't have any other sprinters do they? They've just acquired Cees Bol, the least tactically aware sprinter in the peloton so I don't think he's either much help or competition to Cavendish.0
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I've said it before, I think that increasingly in the modern peloton the "pilot" aka last man in the leadout is arguably more important than the sprinter himself.
I think that's a big reason why QS have had success in the sprint regardless of the sprinter - their success correlates much more closely to the make up of the train, especially the pilot, than the sprinter.0 -
QS should then try to get Danny van Poppel if Morkov is going to retire in the next 1-2 years. He is probably the best pilot currently.
Who is the best sprinter currently? Jakobsen? Philipsen? Ewan? Cav? Demare?PTP Champion 2019, 2022 & 20230 -
A good pilot / leadout man is obviously a help, but if you want your jersey on the top step of the podium at the end of the race and you could only pick one out of "top sprinter" and "top pilot", which would you go for?rick_chasey said:I've said it before, I think that increasingly in the modern peloton the "pilot" aka last man in the leadout is arguably more important than the sprinter himself.
I think that's a big reason why QS have had success in the sprint regardless of the sprinter - their success correlates much more closely to the make up of the train, especially the pilot, than the sprinter.
I'd go for the top sprinter, as there's a decent chance they'd be able to "freelance" to a win, as top sprinters do this reasonably regularly, but there is pretty much no chance of the top pilot winning the sprint themselves. (This does happen very occasionally I think.)0 -
m.r.m. said:
QS should then try to get Danny van Poppel if Morkov is going to retire in the next 1-2 years. He is probably the best pilot currently.
Who is the best sprinter currently? Jakobsen? Philipsen? Ewan? Cav? Demare?
Whoever is behind Morkov (deGendt, 2022)...We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
- @ddraver0 -
IMHO Philipsen last year, given how much he won outside QS. Ewan fades somewhat in longer races/stages (yeah, he's podiumed MSR...). Demare probably lacks a touch of top end, despite improving with distance, but what do I know. It's unlikely Cav's the best anymore, but the way he's prolonged his career speaks volumes to his talent.m.r.m. said:QS should then try to get Danny van Poppel if Morkov is going to retire in the next 1-2 years. He is probably the best pilot currently.
Who is the best sprinter currently? Jakobsen? Philipsen? Ewan? Cav? Demare?1 -
This raises the question (*) as to whether the leadout man makes the sprinter or the sprinter makes the leadout man. ("Peak Cav" probably made Renshaw look like "The best leadout man in the world" as he was known in 2009/2010 to a greater extent than Renshaw did.)ddraver said:m.r.m. said:QS should then try to get Danny van Poppel if Morkov is going to retire in the next 1-2 years. He is probably the best pilot currently.
Who is the best sprinter currently? Jakobsen? Philipsen? Ewan? Cav? Demare?
Whoever is behind Morkov (deGendt, 2022)...
To get to ride with Morkov as your leadout man, you have to have proved your worth as a sprinter first.
(*) Similar question common in other individual sports as to whether the coach makes the athlete or the athlete makes the coach. In swimming, Mel Marshall was head coach at City of Derby. Her swimmers, bar one, performed as you'd expect a large, selective squad to perform i.e. prominently at national level with the odd international (mainly junior) every now and then. The "one" is of course Adam Peaty, and Mel is now head coach at the Loughborough national training centre. Was it her genius that made Peaty or was she just in the right place (Derby) at the right time (when young Adam walked in and asked for a trial)?0 -
I don't think that happens so much anymore.wallace_and_gromit said:
A good pilot / leadout man is obviously a help, but if you want your jersey on the top step of the podium at the end of the race and you could only pick one out of "top sprinter" and "top pilot", which would you go for?rick_chasey said:I've said it before, I think that increasingly in the modern peloton the "pilot" aka last man in the leadout is arguably more important than the sprinter himself.
I think that's a big reason why QS have had success in the sprint regardless of the sprinter - their success correlates much more closely to the make up of the train, especially the pilot, than the sprinter.
I'd go for the top sprinter, as there's a decent chance they'd be able to "freelance" to a win, as top sprinters do this reasonably regularly, but there is pretty much no chance of the top pilot winning the sprint themselves. (This does happen very occasionally I think.)0 -
I'll take your word for that. I don't watch much cycling on TV, but I'll pay close attention in future!rick_chasey said:
I don't think that happens so much anymore.wallace_and_gromit said:
A good pilot / leadout man is obviously a help, but if you want your jersey on the top step of the podium at the end of the race and you could only pick one out of "top sprinter" and "top pilot", which would you go for?rick_chasey said:I've said it before, I think that increasingly in the modern peloton the "pilot" aka last man in the leadout is arguably more important than the sprinter himself.
I think that's a big reason why QS have had success in the sprint regardless of the sprinter - their success correlates much more closely to the make up of the train, especially the pilot, than the sprinter.
I'd go for the top sprinter, as there's a decent chance they'd be able to "freelance" to a win, as top sprinters do this reasonably regularly, but there is pretty much no chance of the top pilot winning the sprint themselves. (This does happen very occasionally I think.)
Having said that, in a theoretical world where everyone is at their peak, I would take "Kittel + any leadout train" vs "Named leadout man + second tier sprinter" to win a bunch sprint more often than not.
[Peak Cav vs Peak Kittel would be the one to watch. I don't think they really raced at their respective peaks. I think Kittel would prevail in that, much as I'm a Cav fanboy!]
Though before the start of any stage, if I had to put my money anywhere it would be on Wout vA.0 -
My view is the sprints are won differently now, and long before the final KM.wallace_and_gromit said:
I'll take your word for that. I don't watch much cycling on TV, but I'll pay close attention in future!rick_chasey said:
I don't think that happens so much anymore.wallace_and_gromit said:
A good pilot / leadout man is obviously a help, but if you want your jersey on the top step of the podium at the end of the race and you could only pick one out of "top sprinter" and "top pilot", which would you go for?rick_chasey said:I've said it before, I think that increasingly in the modern peloton the "pilot" aka last man in the leadout is arguably more important than the sprinter himself.
I think that's a big reason why QS have had success in the sprint regardless of the sprinter - their success correlates much more closely to the make up of the train, especially the pilot, than the sprinter.
I'd go for the top sprinter, as there's a decent chance they'd be able to "freelance" to a win, as top sprinters do this reasonably regularly, but there is pretty much no chance of the top pilot winning the sprint themselves. (This does happen very occasionally I think.)
Having said that, in a theoretical world where everyone is at their peak, I would take "Kittel + any leadout train" vs "Named leadout man + second tier sprinter" to win a bunch sprint more often than not.
[Peak Cav vs Peak Kittel would be the one to watch. I don't think they really raced at their respective peaks. I think Kittel would prevail in that, much as I'm a Cav fanboy!]
Though before the start of any stage, if I had to put my money anywhere it would be on Wout vA.
In the last 5 years QS have dominated, but really only when Morkov was the pilot. The sprinters were a revolving cast.
Maybe this is shade on Cav but I think that's why the aging sprinter was still winning in the Tour > he was one of the top sprinters sure, but the differentiator was QS, not him.0 -
Fair points. Maybe the truth is that it really is a team game and the leadout team is nothing without a sprinter and vice-versa.rick_chasey said:My view is the sprints are won differently now, and long before the final KM.
In the last 5 years QS have dominated, but really only when Morkov was the pilot. The sprinters were a revolving cast.
Maybe this is shade on Cav but I think that's why the aging sprinter was still winning in the Tour > he was one of the top sprinters sure, but the differentiator was QS, not him.1 -
Might be talking out of my arse but I get the impression the speeds are higher for longer going into the sprint and the peloton is much more organised by team than it used to be, so you need the team to step up as the organisation makes surfing wheels more difficult than it used to be. Guys like WvA can do it, but then he can put in a world beating TT when he wants to.
The "surge" at 2.5km to drop you off in wheel 15 is just not possible in the top races, from what I've seen anyway.0 -
Likewise I may be talking out of my arse but from memory Ewan didn't have much of a team last year. Then again I don't remember him winning either. 🤔The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
I'd argue it happens more now that it did a decade or two ago where the top sprinters had full leadout trains that dominated the last 10km of the race. We now regularly see a sprinter with no support getting on the back of the team that tries a full leadout.rick_chasey said:
I don't think that happens so much anymore.wallace_and_gromit said:
A good pilot / leadout man is obviously a help, but if you want your jersey on the top step of the podium at the end of the race and you could only pick one out of "top sprinter" and "top pilot", which would you go for?rick_chasey said:I've said it before, I think that increasingly in the modern peloton the "pilot" aka last man in the leadout is arguably more important than the sprinter himself.
I think that's a big reason why QS have had success in the sprint regardless of the sprinter - their success correlates much more closely to the make up of the train, especially the pilot, than the sprinter.
I'd go for the top sprinter, as there's a decent chance they'd be able to "freelance" to a win, as top sprinters do this reasonably regularly, but there is pretty much no chance of the top pilot winning the sprint themselves. (This does happen very occasionally I think.)0 -
In last year's TdF, who was the best sprinter, and who was the best leadout?0
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2021 I'd say that Morkov made the difference for Cavendish, but in 2020 Sam Bennett couldn't finish every stage off the same way.0
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As with coaches and athletes there's going to be an element of what suits one rider may not suit another too. To take two extremes Sagan's requirements in a leadout were different to Greipel's.[Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]0
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How many other QS sprinters won multiple Tour stages like Cavendish did in 2021? Bennett won two in 2020, if memory serves, Viviani won just one in 2019, Gaviria two in 2018. Last year Jakobsen won just a single stage.rick_chasey said:
My view is the sprints are won differently now, and long before the final KM.wallace_and_gromit said:
I'll take your word for that. I don't watch much cycling on TV, but I'll pay close attention in future!rick_chasey said:wallace_and_gromit said:
A good pilot / leadout man is obviously a help, but if you want your jersey on the top step of the podium at the end of the race and you could only pick one out of "top sprinter" and "top pilot", which would you go for?rick_chasey said:I've said it before, I think that increasingly in the modern peloton the "pilot" aka last man in the leadout is arguably more important than the sprinter himself.
I think that's a big reason why QS have had success in the sprint regardless of the sprinter - their success correlates much more closely to the make up of the train, especially the pilot, than the sprinter.
I'd go for the top sprinter, as there's a decent chance they'd be able to "freelance" to a win, as top sprinters do this reasonably regularly, but there is pretty much no chance of the top pilot winning the sprint themselves. (This does happen very occasionally I think.)
I don't think that happens so much anymore.
Having said that, in a theoretical world where everyone is at their peak, I would take "Kittel + any leadout train" vs "Named leadout man + second tier sprinter" to win a bunch sprint more often than not.
[Peak Cav vs Peak Kittel would be the one to watch. I don't think they really raced at their respective peaks. I think Kittel would prevail in that, much as I'm a Cav fanboy!]
Though before the start of any stage, if I had to put my money anywhere it would be on Wout vA.
In the last 5 years QS have dominated, but really only when Morkov was the pilot. The sprinters were a revolving cast.
Maybe this is shade on Cav but I think that's why the aging sprinter was still winning in the Tour > he was one of the top sprinters sure, but the differentiator was QS, not him.
So whilst I completely agree that riding for QuickStep is key, what Cavendish achieved in 2021 is unprecedented in recent seasons.
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But then in 2021 when Theunissen got it right and Morkov didn't, Wout won in Paris.1
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I think Morkov was on scintillating form that tourandyp said:
How many other QS sprinters won multiple Tour stages like Cavendish did in 2021? Bennett won two in 2020, if memory serves, Viviani won just one in 2019, Gaviria two in 2018. Last year Jakobsen won just a single stage.rick_chasey said:
My view is the sprints are won differently now, and long before the final KM.wallace_and_gromit said:
I'll take your word for that. I don't watch much cycling on TV, but I'll pay close attention in future!rick_chasey said:wallace_and_gromit said:
A good pilot / leadout man is obviously a help, but if you want your jersey on the top step of the podium at the end of the race and you could only pick one out of "top sprinter" and "top pilot", which would you go for?rick_chasey said:I've said it before, I think that increasingly in the modern peloton the "pilot" aka last man in the leadout is arguably more important than the sprinter himself.
I think that's a big reason why QS have had success in the sprint regardless of the sprinter - their success correlates much more closely to the make up of the train, especially the pilot, than the sprinter.
I'd go for the top sprinter, as there's a decent chance they'd be able to "freelance" to a win, as top sprinters do this reasonably regularly, but there is pretty much no chance of the top pilot winning the sprint themselves. (This does happen very occasionally I think.)
I don't think that happens so much anymore.
Having said that, in a theoretical world where everyone is at their peak, I would take "Kittel + any leadout train" vs "Named leadout man + second tier sprinter" to win a bunch sprint more often than not.
[Peak Cav vs Peak Kittel would be the one to watch. I don't think they really raced at their respective peaks. I think Kittel would prevail in that, much as I'm a Cav fanboy!]
Though before the start of any stage, if I had to put my money anywhere it would be on Wout vA.
In the last 5 years QS have dominated, but really only when Morkov was the pilot. The sprinters were a revolving cast.
Maybe this is shade on Cav but I think that's why the aging sprinter was still winning in the Tour > he was one of the top sprinters sure, but the differentiator was QS, not him.
So whilst I completely agree that riding for QuickStep is key, what Cavendish achieved in 2021 is unprecedented in recent seasons.0 -
For sure. But so was Cavendish.1
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I guess my argument is that your last sentence isn't necessarily true.2
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That doesn't seem to have been the case - see 2020 and 2019. Ewan had basically no lead out in 2019, he just beat Groenewegen and Viviani by being faster.0
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Notwithstanding my comment above about it being a team effort, Cav's record (including circa 50 GT stage wins) does suggest that on the balance of probabilities, his input may, on a non-trivial number of stage, be the difference between winning and not winning.rick_chasey said:
I guess my argument is swap out Morkov and Cav doesn't win as much. Swap out Cav and they win the same amount.andyp said:For sure. But so was Cavendish.
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Sprinting has evolved. in Cav's heyday it was all HTC from about 50km out. Others piggy backed on to that and tried to pick upwhat they could. Then Kittel's Shimano disrupted that with a three man hit team in the last kilometre. Now most teams adopt that - some with just two, but with a HTC like team effort making sure they are positioned right. Everyone is basically running the same strategy causing chaos and varied winners.Twitter: @RichN950
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I do like the jersey, although I think his British Championshit one with quick step looked better, although that never made it for sale.
Im not really a fan of turning the Union Flag into three strips \ bands though. German and Aus ones looks great like this, but from the emotive design that is the Union Flag I sometimes feel it's a missed opportunity.
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I still think Banesto's design for Jeremy Hunt was the classiest British National Champion's jersey:sherer said:I do like the jersey, although I think his British Championshit one with quick step looked better, although that never made it for sale.
Im not really a fan of turning the Union Flag into three strips \ bands though. German and Aus ones looks great like this, but from the emotive design that is the Union Flag I sometimes feel it's a missed opportunity.
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