LEAVE the Conservative Party and save your country!
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If the chaps here are right and house prices tank, Tories are going to get annihilated.
I may be wrong but I think they will get annihilated anyway. I suspect the next GE will be a 1997 type landslide as enough of the country have had enough of them. It gets to a point where policies, the economy etc. actually don't really matter for many, people just want to vote the current government out as they are sick of them and want change.
Brexit was the beginning of the end for them, but Johnson and his Steve Bannon/populist playbook approach really killed them off as a viable party. That stuff might work in the States but it was only ever going to gain limited traction here before the game was up.
As for Sunak, he is basically a semi-competent Junior Minister from Defra at his peak, massively overpromoted to PM and shown up to be meek and ineffectual at every turn.0 -
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It's more if a lot of the current Tory voters (i.e. over 50s) are banking on their houses being a material part of their pension, I suspect a big drop in house prices will leave them in need of bigger pensions and state subsidies for old age care.MidlandsGrimpeur2 said:If the chaps here are right and house prices tank, Tories are going to get annihilated.
I may be wrong but I think they will get annihilated anyway. I suspect the next GE will be a 1997 type landslide as enough of the country have had enough of them. It gets to a point where policies, the economy etc. actually don't really matter for many, people just want to vote the current government out as they are sick of them and want change.
Brexit was the beginning of the end for them, but Johnson and his Steve Bannon/populist playbook approach really killed them off as a viable party. That stuff might work in the States but it was only ever going to gain limited traction here before the game was up.
As for Sunak, he is basically a semi-competent Junior Minister from Defra at his peak, massively overpromoted to PM and shown up to be meek and ineffectual at every turn.
I think under 50s are pretty much as red as they'll ever get anyway at this point.0 -
Could I ask that we put some numbers on terms like "annihilation" and "wiped out"
I just think that their core vote will stop it being any worse than 1997 which was 30% of the vote and 165 seats.0 -
People usually sit on the fence with this stuff (seen lots of political pundits/pollsters this year predicting much closer splits or even a hung parliament).
I may well end up looking wildly inaccurate but I am going to go all in with my prediction and I think Labour will get over 400 seats. Depending on how many Tory voters switch to the Lib Dems, I think the Tories may well be around a similar level to 1997, possibly even less.
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I think they will get more like 250, because lots of people will flinch in the polling booth as usual.
There's a way to go yet before a GE and the last budget, regardless of inflation, will include a raft of tax cuts and promises of more to come, and Labour will be forced to argue those are unwise. But the gammons will only hear "tax cut".0 -
I think it's a 1997esque result. Unless inflation dramatically reduces and interest rates go down, I think the current ~30% poll number will be crystallised.
How this translates into seats will be interesting. Some party is no doubt going to end up feeling hard done by FPTP...0 -
I think they will get more like 250, because lots of people will flinch in the polling booth as usual.
I think this is the crux of it. 1992 was a flinch at the polling booth moment as people weren't quite ready to vote them out. I think the Tory's have been enough of a disaster show these past few years that it will be a 1997 repeat. It could well be the toss of a coin though for a lot of voters.0 -
The tax cuts will have to be very extreme to make a dent on cost of living plus mortgage rises.First.Aspect said:I think they will get more like 250, because lots of people will flinch in the polling booth as usual.
There's a way to go yet before a GE and the last budget, regardless of inflation, will include a raft of tax cuts and promises of more to come, and Labour will be forced to argue those are unwise. But the gammons will only hear "tax cut".0 -
The typical floating voter in key constituencies is - apparently - a 50 year old non-uni educated person with a mortgage. So likely to be much less affected by tax changes than mortgage rates.
The Tories are doomed. Only Stevo and the pensioners will vote for them!0 -
wallace_and_gromit said:
The typical floating voter in key constituencies is - apparently - a 50 year old non-uni educated person with a mortgage. So likely to be much less affected by tax changes than mortgage rates.
The Tories are doomed. Only Stevo and the pensioners will vote for them!
Although there has been lots of hopeful talk on here of 'annihilation' and 'landslides', never underestimate the ability of lefties to deliver below expectations."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Sorry, what, did you say tax cuts? Yes, I think I heard the words tax cuts.Jezyboy said:
The tax cuts will have to be very extreme to make a dent on cost of living plus mortgage rises.First.Aspect said:I think they will get more like 250, because lots of people will flinch in the polling booth as usual.
There's a way to go yet before a GE and the last budget, regardless of inflation, will include a raft of tax cuts and promises of more to come, and Labour will be forced to argue those are unwise. But the gammons will only hear "tax cut".
Tax cuts sounds good.0 -
Not for you, though.First.Aspect said:
Sorry, what, did you say tax cuts? Yes, I think I heard the words tax cuts.Jezyboy said:
The tax cuts will have to be very extreme to make a dent on cost of living plus mortgage rises.First.Aspect said:I think they will get more like 250, because lots of people will flinch in the polling booth as usual.
There's a way to go yet before a GE and the last budget, regardless of inflation, will include a raft of tax cuts and promises of more to come, and Labour will be forced to argue those are unwise. But the gammons will only hear "tax cut".
Tax cuts sounds good.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
Indeed. Quite how Kinnock lost the 1992 GE and how Miliband conceded an overall majority to the Tories in 2015 after the "austerity Coalition years" remain amongst life's unsolved mysteries.Stevo_666 said:wallace_and_gromit said:The typical floating voter in key constituencies is - apparently - a 50 year old non-uni educated person with a mortgage. So likely to be much less affected by tax changes than mortgage rates.
The Tories are doomed. Only Stevo and the pensioners will vote for them!
Although there has been lots of hopeful talk on here of 'annihilation' and 'landslides', never underestimate the ability of lefties to deliver below expectations.0 -
Meh, back of cigarette packet calc suggests that, say a penny off the low rate would give a total yearly saving of...less than the amount extra I'm going to end up paying per month.First.Aspect said:
Sorry, what, did you say tax cuts? Yes, I think I heard the words tax cuts.Jezyboy said:
The tax cuts will have to be very extreme to make a dent on cost of living plus mortgage rises.First.Aspect said:I think they will get more like 250, because lots of people will flinch in the polling booth as usual.
There's a way to go yet before a GE and the last budget, regardless of inflation, will include a raft of tax cuts and promises of more to come, and Labour will be forced to argue those are unwise. But the gammons will only hear "tax cut".
Tax cuts sounds good.
Tax cuts sound good, but I do think people are at the stage where sounding good isn't enough so any policies would have to have a significant impact... alternatively the conservatives need to get lucky with global events.0 -
FTFY.wallace_and_gromit said:
Indeed. Quite how Kinnock lost the 1992 GE and how Miliband conceded an overall majority to the Tories in 2015 after the "austerity Coalition years" remain amongst life's little joyous moments.Stevo_666 said:wallace_and_gromit said:The typical floating voter in key constituencies is - apparently - a 50 year old non-uni educated person with a mortgage. So likely to be much less affected by tax changes than mortgage rates.
The Tories are doomed. Only Stevo and the pensioners will vote for them!
Although there has been lots of hopeful talk on here of 'annihilation' and 'landslides', never underestimate the ability of lefties to deliver below expectations.
Let's not also forget Corbyn somehow managing to engineer an 80 seat Tory majority at the last GE.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Scotland and the SNP's issues could play a significant role in how big a majority Labour will get. The SNP got 75% of seat share from 45% of the vote last time whereas Labour only got 1 seat from 19% of the vote. The Tory seats up there are all less than 10% majorities too.0
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Either my maths is up the creek or annihilation does not mean "complete destruction or extinction"rick_chasey said:Baseline for annihilation is labour majority of 30, which would be a pretty massive swing.
Labour majority of 30 means 340 seats
Assume others get 50 then the Tories have 260.
I think that would be seen as a moral victory and Sunak keeps his job0 -
My recollection is that the outcome of the most recent GE was fairly widely predicted, even if the anti-Brexit faction (such as myself) were clinging onto "hope springs eternal" / in denial.Stevo_666 said:
FTFY.wallace_and_gromit said:
Indeed. Quite how Kinnock lost the 1992 GE and how Miliband conceded an overall majority to the Tories in 2015 after the "austerity Coalition years" remain amongst life's little joyous moments.Stevo_666 said:wallace_and_gromit said:The typical floating voter in key constituencies is - apparently - a 50 year old non-uni educated person with a mortgage. So likely to be much less affected by tax changes than mortgage rates.
The Tories are doomed. Only Stevo and the pensioners will vote for them!
Although there has been lots of hopeful talk on here of 'annihilation' and 'landslides', never underestimate the ability of lefties to deliver below expectations.
Let's not also forget Corbyn somehow managing to engineer an 80 seat Tory majority at the last GE.0 -
I could be wrong, but I seem to recall that it was more finely balanced before the vote, then JC and his brigade of hard left clowns managed to make it a thumping defeat for Labour, even though the despicable Boris was leading the nasty Tories. Happy dayswallace_and_gromit said:
My recollection is that the outcome of the most recent GE was fairly widely predicted, even if the anti-Brexit faction (such as myself) were clinging onto "hope springs eternal" / in denial.Stevo_666 said:
FTFY.wallace_and_gromit said:
Indeed. Quite how Kinnock lost the 1992 GE and how Miliband conceded an overall majority to the Tories in 2015 after the "austerity Coalition years" remain amongst life's little joyous moments.Stevo_666 said:wallace_and_gromit said:The typical floating voter in key constituencies is - apparently - a 50 year old non-uni educated person with a mortgage. So likely to be much less affected by tax changes than mortgage rates.
The Tories are doomed. Only Stevo and the pensioners will vote for them!
Although there has been lots of hopeful talk on here of 'annihilation' and 'landslides', never underestimate the ability of lefties to deliver below expectations.
Let's not also forget Corbyn somehow managing to engineer an 80 seat Tory majority at the last GE. "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Given they have just under 80 majority right now, that's as massive as it gets.surrey_commuter said:
Either my maths is up the creek or annihilation does not mean "complete destruction or extinction"rick_chasey said:Baseline for annihilation is labour majority of 30, which would be a pretty massive swing.
Labour majority of 30 means 340 seats
Assume others get 50 then the Tories have 260.
I think that would be seen as a moral victory and Sunak keeps his job
There's a reason pollsters always talk about pendulums.0 -
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How many billions already spent on this trojan horse, for persons of interest? Mind you compared to the £500,000,000,000 Covid cost it seems cheap, let that insanity sink in.Jezyboy said:
Yep the Answer is AI governance, not like "Samaritan" though, the "Machine".
Root is hot!0 -
Isn't it amazing how expensive it is to save money? 🤣🤬Jezyboy said:The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
I assume it saves money in the years that matter to whatever fiscal modelling they are doing, and the extra cost falls outside that window.Jezyboy said:0 -
Sorry just skim read this. Did you say something about tax cuts?Jezyboy said:
Meh, back of cigarette packet calc suggests that, say a penny off the low rate would give a total yearly saving of...less than the amount extra I'm going to end up paying per month.First.Aspect said:
Sorry, what, did you say tax cuts? Yes, I think I heard the words tax cuts.Jezyboy said:
The tax cuts will have to be very extreme to make a dent on cost of living plus mortgage rises.First.Aspect said:I think they will get more like 250, because lots of people will flinch in the polling booth as usual.
There's a way to go yet before a GE and the last budget, regardless of inflation, will include a raft of tax cuts and promises of more to come, and Labour will be forced to argue those are unwise. But the gammons will only hear "tax cut".
Tax cuts sounds good.
Tax cuts sound good, but I do think people are at the stage where sounding good isn't enough so any policies would have to have a significant impact... alternatively the conservatives need to get lucky with global events.0 -
I'm not arguing the merits, only that when it comes to election day, a lot of Gammons seem to use a magnetic pencil that is pulled to the box next to the double barreled name. I don't imagine a lot of them are detail focused.First.Aspect said:
Sorry just skim read this. Did you say something about tax cuts?Jezyboy said:
Meh, back of cigarette packet calc suggests that, say a penny off the low rate would give a total yearly saving of...less than the amount extra I'm going to end up paying per month.First.Aspect said:
Sorry, what, did you say tax cuts? Yes, I think I heard the words tax cuts.Jezyboy said:
The tax cuts will have to be very extreme to make a dent on cost of living plus mortgage rises.First.Aspect said:I think they will get more like 250, because lots of people will flinch in the polling booth as usual.
There's a way to go yet before a GE and the last budget, regardless of inflation, will include a raft of tax cuts and promises of more to come, and Labour will be forced to argue those are unwise. But the gammons will only hear "tax cut".
Tax cuts sounds good.
Tax cuts sound good, but I do think people are at the stage where sounding good isn't enough so any policies would have to have a significant impact... alternatively the conservatives need to get lucky with global events.0 -
I bet AI can even use Trojan horse as a metaphor correctly.focuszing723 said:
How many billions already spent on this trojan horse, for persons of interest? Mind you compared to the £500,000,000,000 Covid cost it seems cheap, let that insanity sink in.Jezyboy said:
Yep the Answer is AI governance, not like "Samaritan" though, the "Machine".
Root is hot!1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0
