LEAVE the Conservative Party and save your country!
Comments
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A thread where someone more qualified than me corrects some misunderstandings
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He may well be more qualified than me too but then again I was constantly told I was wrong about things before 2008 too. I still see smoke and mirrors but will be happier if proven wrong.The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.1 -
Also, the whole thing is run on confidence.
You can't have the experts tells us it's broken or the house of cards will collapse.The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.1 -
You can think that if you want but it is precisely this ignorance of how it works that will actually cost both this and future generations0
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I can and I will.
I'm impressed that you think I have that much power and control. Thanks!The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
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You have to remember it’s not just “experts” it’s also a whole £trillion market of investors who are making their own evaluation for how risky this is.
But that thread is not hocus pocus nor novel. It is really simple, is-not-contested, how central banking works.0 -
Economists have a wide range of views. You're just choosing the one(s) that fit your views. Doesn't make them right, or wrong though.
I don't think you should constantly push that those that back up your personal views are the only ones who can be right.
Personally that comes across as a little niaive and inexperienced.
There has been the saying of putting 10 economists in a room and getting 11 different opinions.1 -
I totally agree with what you are saying but would add that Rick has a robust debating style that can be off putting.Dorset_Boy said:Economists have a wide range of views. You're just choosing the one(s) that fit your views. Doesn't make them right, or wrong though.
I don't think you should constantly push that those that back up your personal views are the only ones who can be right.
Personally that comes across as a little niaive and inexperienced.
There has been the saying of putting 10 economists in a room and getting 11 different opinions.
Once you get past the dogmatism he admits it is risky, he just sees it as less risky than doing nothing.
Our difference of opinion is that I think the inevitable downside will be horrific.0 -
Yeah, right, just like in 2007. I was "wrong" then too.rick_chasey said:You have to remember it’s not just “experts” it’s also a whole £trillion market of investors who are making their own evaluation for how risky this is.
But that thread is not hocus pocus nor novel. It is really simple, is-not-contested, how central banking works.
Happy to be proven wrong this time but who has the better track record? 😉The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
What is being completely ignored is that with this level of government debt, it is now the dominant factor in interest rates decisions.
Interest rates are now set with the view on how confident the markets are towards the servicing of government debt, rather than based on what the economy is doing.
The more government debt, the more this is the dominating factor. Before this latest government debt splurge, it was only private debt that was the dominating factor on interest rates but now we have another debt based dominating factor.
The economy and any recovery is being slowly strangled by ever increasing debt and this is a downward spiral that has gone so far it cannot be broken without using extreme measures0 -
What's the latest rate on conventional gilts? They offered a load on 41 year maturity this year.coopster_the_1st said:What is being completely ignored is that with this level of government debt, it is now the dominant factor in interest rates decisions.
Interest rates are now set with the view on how confident the markets are towards the servicing of government debt, rather than based on what the economy is doing.
The more government debt, the more this is the dominating factor. Before this latest government debt splurge, it was only private debt that was the dominating factor on interest rates but now we have another debt based dominating factor.
The economy and any recovery is being slowly strangled by ever increasing debt and this is a downward spiral that has gone so far it cannot be broken without using extreme measures0 -
Your question just proves the point I am making.kingstongraham said:
What's the latest rate on conventional gilts? They offered a load on 41 year maturity this year.coopster_the_1st said:What is being completely ignored is that with this level of government debt, it is now the dominant factor in interest rates decisions.
Interest rates are now set with the view on how confident the markets are towards the servicing of government debt, rather than based on what the economy is doing.
The more government debt, the more this is the dominating factor. Before this latest government debt splurge, it was only private debt that was the dominating factor on interest rates but now we have another debt based dominating factor.
The economy and any recovery is being slowly strangled by ever increasing debt and this is a downward spiral that has gone so far it cannot be broken without using extreme measures
All decisions going forward are now about maintaining the confidence of the debt markets. Everything they now do has to comply with what the debt market thinks rather than what is best for the country's economy.0 -
But if the rates are low for that long term, then that indicates that the markets have confidence that the decisions are not disastrous.coopster_the_1st said:
Your question just proves the point I am making.kingstongraham said:
What's the latest rate on conventional gilts? They offered a load on 41 year maturity this year.coopster_the_1st said:What is being completely ignored is that with this level of government debt, it is now the dominant factor in interest rates decisions.
Interest rates are now set with the view on how confident the markets are towards the servicing of government debt, rather than based on what the economy is doing.
The more government debt, the more this is the dominating factor. Before this latest government debt splurge, it was only private debt that was the dominating factor on interest rates but now we have another debt based dominating factor.
The economy and any recovery is being slowly strangled by ever increasing debt and this is a downward spiral that has gone so far it cannot be broken without using extreme measures
All decisions going forward are now about maintaining the confidence of the debt markets. Everything they now do has to comply with what the debt market thinks rather than what is best for the country's economy.0 -
Your second post in a row on this subject where you back up my point. Thank youkingstongraham said:
But if the rates are low for that long term, then that indicates that the markets have confidence that the decisions are not disastrous.coopster_the_1st said:
Your question just proves the point I am making.kingstongraham said:
What's the latest rate on conventional gilts? They offered a load on 41 year maturity this year.coopster_the_1st said:What is being completely ignored is that with this level of government debt, it is now the dominant factor in interest rates decisions.
Interest rates are now set with the view on how confident the markets are towards the servicing of government debt, rather than based on what the economy is doing.
The more government debt, the more this is the dominating factor. Before this latest government debt splurge, it was only private debt that was the dominating factor on interest rates but now we have another debt based dominating factor.
The economy and any recovery is being slowly strangled by ever increasing debt and this is a downward spiral that has gone so far it cannot be broken without using extreme measures
All decisions going forward are now about maintaining the confidence of the debt markets. Everything they now do has to comply with what the debt market thinks rather than what is best for the country's economy.
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There are many things to differ on but the mechanics of central banking are just that.Dorset_Boy said:Economists have a wide range of views. You're just choosing the one(s) that fit your views. Doesn't make them right, or wrong though.
I don't think you should constantly push that those that back up your personal views are the only ones who can be right.
Personally that comes across as a little niaive and inexperienced.
There has been the saying of putting 10 economists in a room and getting 11 different opinions.
What I get frustrated with is people make out things are opinion that aren’t and versa.
How sovereign debt works is different to how household debt works.
You don’t get people arguing over how credit cards work. It’s just more theoretical as it’s on a macro level.
You are right that choosing to listen to this and act on it is up for debate, but that is the choice.
This is what people talk about when they talk about the success of disinformation.
I mean people talk about the 08 crash - if it was not for the aforementioned understanding it would have been so much worse.0 -
Your point seems to be arguing against the whole underpinning of the gilt market that has been operating for how long now? That's why I didn't address it seriously.coopster_the_1st said:
Your second post in a row on this subject where you back up my point. Thank youkingstongraham said:
But if the rates are low for that long term, then that indicates that the markets have confidence that the decisions are not disastrous.coopster_the_1st said:
Your question just proves the point I am making.kingstongraham said:
What's the latest rate on conventional gilts? They offered a load on 41 year maturity this year.coopster_the_1st said:What is being completely ignored is that with this level of government debt, it is now the dominant factor in interest rates decisions.
Interest rates are now set with the view on how confident the markets are towards the servicing of government debt, rather than based on what the economy is doing.
The more government debt, the more this is the dominating factor. Before this latest government debt splurge, it was only private debt that was the dominating factor on interest rates but now we have another debt based dominating factor.
The economy and any recovery is being slowly strangled by ever increasing debt and this is a downward spiral that has gone so far it cannot be broken without using extreme measures
All decisions going forward are now about maintaining the confidence of the debt markets. Everything they now do has to comply with what the debt market thinks rather than what is best for the country's economy.0 -
UK Govt forces pension funds to hold giltskingstongraham said:
But if the rates are low for that long term, then that indicates that the markets have confidence that the decisions are not disastrous.coopster_the_1st said:
Your question just proves the point I am making.kingstongraham said:
What's the latest rate on conventional gilts? They offered a load on 41 year maturity this year.coopster_the_1st said:What is being completely ignored is that with this level of government debt, it is now the dominant factor in interest rates decisions.
Interest rates are now set with the view on how confident the markets are towards the servicing of government debt, rather than based on what the economy is doing.
The more government debt, the more this is the dominating factor. Before this latest government debt splurge, it was only private debt that was the dominating factor on interest rates but now we have another debt based dominating factor.
The economy and any recovery is being slowly strangled by ever increasing debt and this is a downward spiral that has gone so far it cannot be broken without using extreme measures
All decisions going forward are now about maintaining the confidence of the debt markets. Everything they now do has to comply with what the debt market thinks rather than what is best for the country's economy.
UK Govt buys more gilts each month than it sells
That is market manipulation and if it goes wrong will have catastrophic consequences0 -
This 7-year plan for UK farming. Some good and some bad, but I see cakeism is alive and well. The gist seems to be weaning off subsidies which would be fine if the US and EU were also winding down theirs, but... they're not. At the same time farmers will be encouraged to put their efforts into environmental stewardship, pulling them in the opposite direction to the need to compete against subsidised overseas producers.
Is the end result us importing all our food while we pay farmers to maintain a kind of natural theme park?1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
rjsterry said:
This 7-year plan for UK farming. Some good and some bad, but I see cakeism is alive and well. The gist seems to be weaning off subsidies which would be fine if the US and EU were also winding down theirs, but... they're not. At the same time farmers will be encouraged to put their efforts into environmental stewardship, pulling them in the opposite direction to the need to compete against subsidised overseas producers.
Is the end result us importing all our food while we pay farmers to maintain a kind of natural theme park?
Great chunks of the UK are already a kind of natural theme park - most of the prettiest parts of the UK aren't competitive in world terms, but the kind of farms people *say* they like (smaller, family farms), have preserved the nature of great swathes of land whilst producing food too, albeit propped up by subsidy. (The most extreme example of these are the in the National Parks.)
Part of the problem is that most consumers are hypocrites: they like small farms and pretty countryside, but go into the supermarkets and buy everything on special offer and from 'essentials' lines, without asking how food is produced so cheaply.1 -
One for the Brexit thread, but I understood that one of the challenges the EU has documenting state aid, is doing it so that it doesn't include CAP. Otherwise, the UK would be able to slap tariffs on imported food. This would be the solution to the problem you note.surrey_commuter said:
UK Govt forces pension funds to hold giltskingstongraham said:
But if the rates are low for that long term, then that indicates that the markets have confidence that the decisions are not disastrous.coopster_the_1st said:
Your question just proves the point I am making.kingstongraham said:
What's the latest rate on conventional gilts? They offered a load on 41 year maturity this year.coopster_the_1st said:What is being completely ignored is that with this level of government debt, it is now the dominant factor in interest rates decisions.
Interest rates are now set with the view on how confident the markets are towards the servicing of government debt, rather than based on what the economy is doing.
The more government debt, the more this is the dominating factor. Before this latest government debt splurge, it was only private debt that was the dominating factor on interest rates but now we have another debt based dominating factor.
The economy and any recovery is being slowly strangled by ever increasing debt and this is a downward spiral that has gone so far it cannot be broken without using extreme measures
All decisions going forward are now about maintaining the confidence of the debt markets. Everything they now do has to comply with what the debt market thinks rather than what is best for the country's economy.
UK Govt buys more gilts each month than it sells
That is market manipulation and if it goes wrong will have catastrophic consequences
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Are they forced to buy 50 year gilts?surrey_commuter said:
UK Govt forces pension funds to hold giltskingstongraham said:
But if the rates are low for that long term, then that indicates that the markets have confidence that the decisions are not disastrous.coopster_the_1st said:
Your question just proves the point I am making.kingstongraham said:
What's the latest rate on conventional gilts? They offered a load on 41 year maturity this year.coopster_the_1st said:What is being completely ignored is that with this level of government debt, it is now the dominant factor in interest rates decisions.
Interest rates are now set with the view on how confident the markets are towards the servicing of government debt, rather than based on what the economy is doing.
The more government debt, the more this is the dominating factor. Before this latest government debt splurge, it was only private debt that was the dominating factor on interest rates but now we have another debt based dominating factor.
The economy and any recovery is being slowly strangled by ever increasing debt and this is a downward spiral that has gone so far it cannot be broken without using extreme measures
All decisions going forward are now about maintaining the confidence of the debt markets. Everything they now do has to comply with what the debt market thinks rather than what is best for the country's economy.
UK Govt buys more gilts each month than it sells
That is market manipulation and if it goes wrong will have catastrophic consequences0 -
That is rather amusing, maybe cross post in the Brexit and Irony threadsTheBigBean said:
One for the Brexit thread, but I understood that one of the challenges the EU has documenting state aid, is doing it so that it doesn't include CAP. Otherwise, the UK would be able to slap tariffs on imported food. This would be the solution to the problem you note.surrey_commuter said:
UK Govt forces pension funds to hold giltskingstongraham said:
But if the rates are low for that long term, then that indicates that the markets have confidence that the decisions are not disastrous.coopster_the_1st said:
Your question just proves the point I am making.kingstongraham said:
What's the latest rate on conventional gilts? They offered a load on 41 year maturity this year.coopster_the_1st said:What is being completely ignored is that with this level of government debt, it is now the dominant factor in interest rates decisions.
Interest rates are now set with the view on how confident the markets are towards the servicing of government debt, rather than based on what the economy is doing.
The more government debt, the more this is the dominating factor. Before this latest government debt splurge, it was only private debt that was the dominating factor on interest rates but now we have another debt based dominating factor.
The economy and any recovery is being slowly strangled by ever increasing debt and this is a downward spiral that has gone so far it cannot be broken without using extreme measures
All decisions going forward are now about maintaining the confidence of the debt markets. Everything they now do has to comply with what the debt market thinks rather than what is best for the country's economy.
UK Govt buys more gilts each month than it sells
That is market manipulation and if it goes wrong will have catastrophic consequences0 -
This begs the question of how many threads you could legitimately cross post the same post. I would think Corona, Brexit, Tories and trivially annoying should be doable.surrey_commuter said:
That is rather amusing, maybe cross post in the Brexit and Irony threadsTheBigBean said:
One for the Brexit thread, but I understood that one of the challenges the EU has documenting state aid, is doing it so that it doesn't include CAP. Otherwise, the UK would be able to slap tariffs on imported food. This would be the solution to the problem you note.surrey_commuter said:
UK Govt forces pension funds to hold giltskingstongraham said:
But if the rates are low for that long term, then that indicates that the markets have confidence that the decisions are not disastrous.coopster_the_1st said:
Your question just proves the point I am making.kingstongraham said:
What's the latest rate on conventional gilts? They offered a load on 41 year maturity this year.coopster_the_1st said:What is being completely ignored is that with this level of government debt, it is now the dominant factor in interest rates decisions.
Interest rates are now set with the view on how confident the markets are towards the servicing of government debt, rather than based on what the economy is doing.
The more government debt, the more this is the dominating factor. Before this latest government debt splurge, it was only private debt that was the dominating factor on interest rates but now we have another debt based dominating factor.
The economy and any recovery is being slowly strangled by ever increasing debt and this is a downward spiral that has gone so far it cannot be broken without using extreme measures
All decisions going forward are now about maintaining the confidence of the debt markets. Everything they now do has to comply with what the debt market thinks rather than what is best for the country's economy.
UK Govt buys more gilts each month than it sells
That is market manipulation and if it goes wrong will have catastrophic consequences0 -
cobretta, one thread to rule them allTheBigBean said:
This begs the question of how many threads you could legitimately cross post the same post. I would think Corona, Brexit, Tories and trivially annoying should be doable.surrey_commuter said:
That is rather amusing, maybe cross post in the Brexit and Irony threadsTheBigBean said:
One for the Brexit thread, but I understood that one of the challenges the EU has documenting state aid, is doing it so that it doesn't include CAP. Otherwise, the UK would be able to slap tariffs on imported food. This would be the solution to the problem you note.surrey_commuter said:
UK Govt forces pension funds to hold giltskingstongraham said:
But if the rates are low for that long term, then that indicates that the markets have confidence that the decisions are not disastrous.coopster_the_1st said:
Your question just proves the point I am making.kingstongraham said:
What's the latest rate on conventional gilts? They offered a load on 41 year maturity this year.coopster_the_1st said:What is being completely ignored is that with this level of government debt, it is now the dominant factor in interest rates decisions.
Interest rates are now set with the view on how confident the markets are towards the servicing of government debt, rather than based on what the economy is doing.
The more government debt, the more this is the dominating factor. Before this latest government debt splurge, it was only private debt that was the dominating factor on interest rates but now we have another debt based dominating factor.
The economy and any recovery is being slowly strangled by ever increasing debt and this is a downward spiral that has gone so far it cannot be broken without using extreme measures
All decisions going forward are now about maintaining the confidence of the debt markets. Everything they now do has to comply with what the debt market thinks rather than what is best for the country's economy.
UK Govt buys more gilts each month than it sells
That is market manipulation and if it goes wrong will have catastrophic consequencesmy bike - faster than god's and twice as shiny0 -
It has been suggested in a slightly different form, but it didn't get very far for some reasonsungod said:
cobretta, one thread to rule them allTheBigBean said:
This begs the question of how many threads you could legitimately cross post the same post. I would think Corona, Brexit, Tories and trivially annoying should be doable.surrey_commuter said:
That is rather amusing, maybe cross post in the Brexit and Irony threadsTheBigBean said:
One for the Brexit thread, but I understood that one of the challenges the EU has documenting state aid, is doing it so that it doesn't include CAP. Otherwise, the UK would be able to slap tariffs on imported food. This would be the solution to the problem you note.surrey_commuter said:
UK Govt forces pension funds to hold giltskingstongraham said:
But if the rates are low for that long term, then that indicates that the markets have confidence that the decisions are not disastrous.coopster_the_1st said:
Your question just proves the point I am making.kingstongraham said:
What's the latest rate on conventional gilts? They offered a load on 41 year maturity this year.coopster_the_1st said:What is being completely ignored is that with this level of government debt, it is now the dominant factor in interest rates decisions.
Interest rates are now set with the view on how confident the markets are towards the servicing of government debt, rather than based on what the economy is doing.
The more government debt, the more this is the dominating factor. Before this latest government debt splurge, it was only private debt that was the dominating factor on interest rates but now we have another debt based dominating factor.
The economy and any recovery is being slowly strangled by ever increasing debt and this is a downward spiral that has gone so far it cannot be broken without using extreme measures
All decisions going forward are now about maintaining the confidence of the debt markets. Everything they now do has to comply with what the debt market thinks rather than what is best for the country's economy.
UK Govt buys more gilts each month than it sells
That is market manipulation and if it goes wrong will have catastrophic consequences
https://forum.bikeradar.com/discussion/12780147/sad-socialist-quarantine-area/p1"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
They match assets to liabilities so would not need to be forced. Gilt curves tend to be based on the ten year rate due to the depth of the marketkingstongraham said:
Are they forced to buy 50 year gilts?surrey_commuter said:
UK Govt forces pension funds to hold giltskingstongraham said:
But if the rates are low for that long term, then that indicates that the markets have confidence that the decisions are not disastrous.coopster_the_1st said:
Your question just proves the point I am making.kingstongraham said:
What's the latest rate on conventional gilts? They offered a load on 41 year maturity this year.coopster_the_1st said:What is being completely ignored is that with this level of government debt, it is now the dominant factor in interest rates decisions.
Interest rates are now set with the view on how confident the markets are towards the servicing of government debt, rather than based on what the economy is doing.
The more government debt, the more this is the dominating factor. Before this latest government debt splurge, it was only private debt that was the dominating factor on interest rates but now we have another debt based dominating factor.
The economy and any recovery is being slowly strangled by ever increasing debt and this is a downward spiral that has gone so far it cannot be broken without using extreme measures
All decisions going forward are now about maintaining the confidence of the debt markets. Everything they now do has to comply with what the debt market thinks rather than what is best for the country's economy.
UK Govt buys more gilts each month than it sells
That is market manipulation and if it goes wrong will have catastrophic consequences0 -
I sort of agree but bahaviours don’t happen in isolation.briantrumpet said:rjsterry said:This 7-year plan for UK farming. Some good and some bad, but I see cakeism is alive and well. The gist seems to be weaning off subsidies which would be fine if the US and EU were also winding down theirs, but... they're not. At the same time farmers will be encouraged to put their efforts into environmental stewardship, pulling them in the opposite direction to the need to compete against subsidised overseas producers.
Is the end result us importing all our food while we pay farmers to maintain a kind of natural theme park?
Great chunks of the UK are already a kind of natural theme park - most of the prettiest parts of the UK aren't competitive in world terms, but the kind of farms people *say* they like (smaller, family farms), have preserved the nature of great swathes of land whilst producing food too, albeit propped up by subsidy. (The most extreme example of these are the in the National Parks.)
Part of the problem is that most consumers are hypocrites: they like small farms and pretty countryside, but go into the supermarkets and buy everything on special offer and from 'essentials' lines, without asking how food is produced so cheaply.
For many, wages are low, housing is expensive. You have literally no option but to buy cheap.
Buying cheap supports mass, low quality produce and low value jobs paying low wages.
The circle is complete.
The market has no solution for this.1 -
I would think very few people have absolutely zero discretionary spending though.morstar said:
I sort of agree but bahaviours don’t happen in isolation.briantrumpet said:rjsterry said:This 7-year plan for UK farming. Some good and some bad, but I see cakeism is alive and well. The gist seems to be weaning off subsidies which would be fine if the US and EU were also winding down theirs, but... they're not. At the same time farmers will be encouraged to put their efforts into environmental stewardship, pulling them in the opposite direction to the need to compete against subsidised overseas producers.
Is the end result us importing all our food while we pay farmers to maintain a kind of natural theme park?
Great chunks of the UK are already a kind of natural theme park - most of the prettiest parts of the UK aren't competitive in world terms, but the kind of farms people *say* they like (smaller, family farms), have preserved the nature of great swathes of land whilst producing food too, albeit propped up by subsidy. (The most extreme example of these are the in the National Parks.)
Part of the problem is that most consumers are hypocrites: they like small farms and pretty countryside, but go into the supermarkets and buy everything on special offer and from 'essentials' lines, without asking how food is produced so cheaply.
For many, wages are low, housing is expensive. You have literally no option but to buy cheap.
Buying cheap supports mass, low quality produce and low value jobs paying low wages.
The circle is complete.
The market has no solution for this.0 -
Probably more than you'd think. Here are some stats from the IFS for 2018-2019.Jezyboy said:
I would think very few people have absolutely zero discretionary spending though.morstar said:
I sort of agree but bahaviours don’t happen in isolation.briantrumpet said:rjsterry said:This 7-year plan for UK farming. Some good and some bad, but I see cakeism is alive and well. The gist seems to be weaning off subsidies which would be fine if the US and EU were also winding down theirs, but... they're not. At the same time farmers will be encouraged to put their efforts into environmental stewardship, pulling them in the opposite direction to the need to compete against subsidised overseas producers.
Is the end result us importing all our food while we pay farmers to maintain a kind of natural theme park?
Great chunks of the UK are already a kind of natural theme park - most of the prettiest parts of the UK aren't competitive in world terms, but the kind of farms people *say* they like (smaller, family farms), have preserved the nature of great swathes of land whilst producing food too, albeit propped up by subsidy. (The most extreme example of these are the in the National Parks.)
Part of the problem is that most consumers are hypocrites: they like small farms and pretty countryside, but go into the supermarkets and buy everything on special offer and from 'essentials' lines, without asking how food is produced so cheaply.
For many, wages are low, housing is expensive. You have literally no option but to buy cheap.
Buying cheap supports mass, low quality produce and low value jobs paying low wages.
The circle is complete.
The market has no solution for this.
There must be concern about the stats for 2020-2021.
"The COVID-19 crisis hit at a time when income growth had already been extremely disappointing for some years. Median (middle) household income was essentially the same in 2018−19 (the latest data) as in 2015−16. This stalling itself came after only a short-lived recovery from the Great Recession. The combined effect had been a decade of unprecedented poor improvements in living standards, with average income before housing costs having grown less than over any other 10-year period since records began in 1961.
The main culprit for the latest choking-off of real income growth had been a rise in inflation from 2016. This was partly due to the depreciation of sterling following the Brexit referendum.
For people aged 60 or over, median income was 12% higher in 2018−19 than before the previous recession in 2007−08, while among the rest of the population it was only 3% higher. However, in recent years, income growth had stalled for old and young alike.
Trends among low-income households had been worse still – they had experienced five years of real income stagnation between 2013−14 and 2018−19. This was entirely due to falls in income from working-age benefits and tax credits, which offset growth in employment incomes. Working-age benefits were frozen in cash terms, so the rise in inflation from 2016 reduced their value in real terms by 5%.
Overall relative poverty (using incomes measured after housing costs are deducted (AHC)) was 22% in 2018−19, and it has fluctuated little since the early 2000s. For particular groups, though, we have seen more change. Relative poverty among working-age adults without children has fallen since 2011−12, while relative child poverty has increased by 3 percentage points – the most sustained rise in relative child poverty since the early 1990s.
Absolute AHC poverty was 20% in 2018−19 – virtually unchanged over the last two years. The recent lack of progress in reducing absolute poverty is disappointing: it only fell by 1.4 percentage points between 2010−11 and 2018−19 whereas reductions over an equivalent period in previous decades were around 5–6 percentage points on average.
Workers whose livelihoods look most at risk during the COVID-19 crisis already tended to have relatively low incomes, and were relatively likely to be in poverty, prior to the onset of the crisis. Employees working in ‘shut-down sectors’, such as hospitality, were already almost twice as likely to be in poverty as other employees, and poverty rates were higher still for self-employed people working in these sectors. Cleaners and hairdressers stand out as groups with higher poverty rates than other workers who are unlikely to be able to work from home.
In 2018−19, only 12% of non-pensioners lived in households with no one in paid work, down by a third from 18% in 1994–95. This progress is highly likely to be undermined by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Despite temporary increases in benefits announced in response to the pandemic, the benefits system in 2020 provides less support to out-of-work households than in 2011. Average benefit entitlement among workless households is 10% lower in 2020−21 than it would have been without any policy changes since 2011, and among workless households with children it is 12% lower. These cuts in generosity are mainly due to the ‘benefits freeze’ and the introduction of universal credit; without the temporary increases, they would have been 15% and 16% respectively."The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0
