LEAVE the Conservative Party and save your country!

briantrumpet

John Crace suggests that Johnson isn't funny any more. Won't be cutting it as a comedian on the BBC then.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/02/boris-left-flailing-as-pms-limitations-become-clear-for-all-to-see

pblakeney

Pross said:

I'm really struggling with this people working from home will result in redundancy message. Do they think people have become more efficient working from home and employers will need fewer staff?

I thought it was they realised that the "old normal" Ponzi scheme needs the bottom level (coffee shop workers etc) to prop up the upper level by paying taxes/spending/not being unemployed.
WFH means a lot of service workers are redundant.

briantrumpet

I suppose I should stop linking Telegraph articles that criticise Johnson, but this one, on quarantine, is remarkable in that every single one of the BTL comments is critical of him.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/comment/karol-sikora-uk-quarantine-science-proves-ridiculous/

I think the new challenge will be to find any article in The Telegraph that praises him.

surrey_commuter

pblakeney said:

Pross said:

I'm really struggling with this people working from home will result in redundancy message. Do they think people have become more efficient working from home and employers will need fewer staff?

I thought it was they realised that the "old normal" Ponzi scheme needs the bottom level (coffee shop workers etc) to prop up the upper level by paying taxes/spending/not being unemployed.
WFH means a lot of service workers are redundant.

They count as hospitality sector.

Surely they have realised that the bottom level is dependent on the upper levels discretionary spending.

pangolin

Guys can we focus on the election result please? Really really good.

skyblueamateur

Speaking to our broker at AMEX yesterday and they are wfh until at least next July.

Bad news for the likes of Pret, city pubs & restaurants.

Too early to tell whether this will be a complete realignment in our working practices but it is certainly a seismic tremor

Pross

pblakeney said:

Pross said:

I'm really struggling with this people working from home will result in redundancy message. Do they think people have become more efficient working from home and employers will need fewer staff?

I thought it was they realised that the "old normal" Ponzi scheme needs the bottom level (coffee shop workers etc) to prop up the upper level by paying taxes/spending/not being unemployed.
WFH means a lot of service workers are redundant.

That sort of sector will adapt. At one point offices had canteens directly employing staff (the 'tea lady' was still around in some places when I started work), with all of the out of town business parks we got mobile sandwich vans and now coffee shops / Gregg's (Pret for the posh lot) are popping up anywhere the numbers of workers are high enough.

pblakeney

surrey_commuter said:

pblakeney said:

Pross said:

I'm really struggling with this people working from home will result in redundancy message. Do they think people have become more efficient working from home and employers will need fewer staff?

I thought it was they realised that the "old normal" Ponzi scheme needs the bottom level (coffee shop workers etc) to prop up the upper level by paying taxes/spending/not being unemployed.
WFH means a lot of service workers are redundant.

They count as hospitality sector.

Surely they have realised that the bottom level is dependent on the upper levels discretionary spending.

Whichever way you cut it one depends on the other or the system fails.
Which is the reason for the urge to get back to the office.
The reason is not simply to get people back to their pigeon holes.

rick_chasey

If this is a longer term shift, then surely a lot of these shops will end up relocated to the 'burbs anyway?

pblakeney

rick_chasey said:

If this is a longer term shift, then surely a lot of these shops will end up relocated to the 'burbs anyway?

Not necessarily.
I've not been to a cafe since mid March. I've adapted to a new normal.

skyblueamateur

rick_chasey said:

If this is a longer term shift, then surely a lot of these shops will end up relocated to the 'burbs anyway?

I wouldn't say that's a given. Would people make a deliberate trip out of their home to go and get lunch or make something themselves in their kitchen?

The convenience of picking something up on the commute to the office is surely different then making a dedicated trip to do so?

pangolin

I don't think the chains will relocate to the burbs en masse. I think we might see more independent owner/ operator shops who are able to survive on margins that chains won't/can't. They will employ less people per shop though.

pangolin

Anecdotally my local independent coffee shop has done well. It pivoted really early on to selling bread, milk, flour, eggs etc from its suppliers and didn't just shut for the duration.

briantrumpet

Maybe they need someone like Norman Tebbit to tell all the sacked Pret workers to get on their bikes to find employment.

rick_chasey

Fair enough. I say this because a local coffee shop who, and hats off to them, by the beginning of April re-furbed the entire shop at some expense to move the counter from the back of the shop to the front to serve through the window, have made *so much more money* and whenever I go by there are queues outside.

Quick nosey chat with them and I asked if it was because you don't get people ordering one coffee and sitting there for 3 hours and it was "exactly that - and now all the people who commuted now also want good coffee and its a way to get out of the house".

Made sense to me.

In fairness it might also just be the other coffee shops didn't shift their behaviours and you have to go deep into the bowels of their shops to get anything, so maybe this lot are just picking up their trade.


Anyway, it's a shame I don't like their coffee, but I admire their balls. If I indulge myself to sound like a London w*nker, they've copied what all the London coffee shops look like and round here, it's such a novelty, people love it.

surrey_commuter

rick_chasey said:

Fair enough. I say this because a local coffee shop who, and hats off to them, by the beginning of April re-furbed the entire shop at some expense to move the counter from the back of the shop to the front to serve through the window, have made *so much more money* and whenever I go by there are queues outside.

Quick nosey chat with them and I asked if it was because you don't get people ordering one coffee and sitting there for 3 hours and it was "exactly that - and now all the people who commuted now also want good coffee and its a way to get out of the house".

Made sense to me.

In fairness it might also just be the other coffee shops didn't shift their behaviours and you have to go deep into the bowels of their shops to get anything, so maybe this lot are just picking up their trade.


Anyway, it's a shame I don't like their coffee, but I admire their balls. If I indulge myself to sound like a London w*nker, they've copied what all the London coffee shops look like and round here, it's such a novelty, people love it.

I think people in the burbs are a lot less dynamic. Bar the odd exception they have not extended their hours or adapted their working practises.

My local independent coffee shop shut for the entirety of lockdown and still opens 9-3pm. She should be having her best year ever

rick_chasey

Might have a shock when the City centre folk rock up ;-)

surrey_commuter

rick_chasey said:

Might have a shock when the City centre folk rock up ;-)

one of my better business ideas is to see what makes money in the burbs/sticks and then do it twice as well for half the effort you are used to putting in.

The margins on selling coffee certainly have my interest

bompington

In general, there does seem to be a split between businesses - coffee shops, pubs, hotels - that are making the effort to adapt, and ones that are retreating into their shells.

Round here we don't, I think it would be fair to say, have much of a London vibe. But the issues are the same wherever you are.

We have had things like espresso vans coming round to our street, and we're not even the 'burbs - we're a village (small enough to have no shop, cafe or pub) a couple of miles out of town.

I really, really hope that the ones that have invested money and effort get the return they deserve. Certainly we have seen, and heard plenty of anecdotal evidence of, small local businesses expanding and doing good business.

rick_chasey

bompington said:

In general, there does seem to be a split between businesses - coffee shops, pubs, hotels - that are making the effort to adapt, and ones that are retreating into their shells.

Round here we don't, I think it would be fair to say, have much of a London vibe. But the issues are the same wherever you are.

We have had things like espresso vans coming round to our street, and we're not even the 'burbs - we're a village (small enough to have no shop, cafe or pub) a couple of miles out of town.

I really, really hope that the ones that have invested money and effort get the return they deserve. Certainly we have seen, and heard plenty of anecdotal evidence of, small local businesses expanding and doing good business.

Honestly the balls to invest in something early on in the pandemic to adjust. Fair play.

bompington

Yes, testicular fortitude required. I've seen hotel owners (we're close to the southern edge of the highlands here) with no punters of an evening, but they're out building things like quite fancy outdoor BBQs with their own hands.

bompington

In fact (back on topic), you could say that this is the sort of thing that real free market advocates would approve of. If only there was a pro-free market party in the UK .

surrey_commuter

rick_chasey said:

bompington said:

In general, there does seem to be a split between businesses - coffee shops, pubs, hotels - that are making the effort to adapt, and ones that are retreating into their shells.

Round here we don't, I think it would be fair to say, have much of a London vibe. But the issues are the same wherever you are.

We have had things like espresso vans coming round to our street, and we're not even the 'burbs - we're a village (small enough to have no shop, cafe or pub) a couple of miles out of town.

I really, really hope that the ones that have invested money and effort get the return they deserve. Certainly we have seen, and heard plenty of anecdotal evidence of, small local businesses expanding and doing good business.

Honestly the balls to invest in something early on in the pandemic to adjust. Fair play.

agreed about investing but a lot of other could have achieved much with initiative and effort. Coffee shop could open the door and put a table in it and have an take away only service. in the burbs with everybody WFH they could have doubled their trade.

I got to know my local Wilko as he was the only shop open, God knows how he justified it as the only food he sells are crisps and sweets. He had tannoy announcements saying he was extending his opening hours and still had a queue 20 people long at 08:00.

Conversely you had garden centres with pallet loads of compost etc that they could not see a way of selling to desperate customers..

briantrumpet

A friend of mine who manages business customers' bank accounts says there is a real split between the businesses which have been fleet-footed in exploiting the change in circumstances, and are doing well, and those who have just taken any government hand-outs they can and are keeping fingers crossed that something turns up.

briantrumpet

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

bompington said:

In general, there does seem to be a split between businesses - coffee shops, pubs, hotels - that are making the effort to adapt, and ones that are retreating into their shells.

Round here we don't, I think it would be fair to say, have much of a London vibe. But the issues are the same wherever you are.

We have had things like espresso vans coming round to our street, and we're not even the 'burbs - we're a village (small enough to have no shop, cafe or pub) a couple of miles out of town.

I really, really hope that the ones that have invested money and effort get the return they deserve. Certainly we have seen, and heard plenty of anecdotal evidence of, small local businesses expanding and doing good business.

Honestly the balls to invest in something early on in the pandemic to adjust. Fair play.

agreed about investing but a lot of other could have achieved much with initiative and effort. Coffee shop could open the door and put a table in it and have an take away only service. in the burbs with everybody WFH they could have doubled their trade.

I got to know my local Wilko as he was the only shop open, God knows how he justified it as the only food he sells are crisps and sweets. He had tannoy announcements saying he was extending his opening hours and still had a queue 20 people long at 08:00.

Conversely you had garden centres with pallet loads of compost etc that they could not see a way of selling to desperate customers..

My 34-year-old washing machine gave up the ghost early on in lockdown, and I phoned a normally brilliant local shop to ask advice. Having worked out that the machine was beyond economic repair, I asked if he could deliver a new machine.

"Dunno if I've got one in the shop. Won't be going in the shop till we're told we can reopen it."

"Can't you check though, and deliver it if you have got one? I don't need to see it in the shop."

"No, sorry. Buy it from John Lewis if you need it before we reopen."

So I did.

pangolin

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

bompington said:

In general, there does seem to be a split between businesses - coffee shops, pubs, hotels - that are making the effort to adapt, and ones that are retreating into their shells.

Round here we don't, I think it would be fair to say, have much of a London vibe. But the issues are the same wherever you are.

We have had things like espresso vans coming round to our street, and we're not even the 'burbs - we're a village (small enough to have no shop, cafe or pub) a couple of miles out of town.

I really, really hope that the ones that have invested money and effort get the return they deserve. Certainly we have seen, and heard plenty of anecdotal evidence of, small local businesses expanding and doing good business.

Honestly the balls to invest in something early on in the pandemic to adjust. Fair play.

agreed about investing but a lot of other could have achieved much with initiative and effort. Coffee shop could open the door and put a table in it and have an take away only service. in the burbs with everybody WFH they could have doubled their trade.

I got to know my local Wilko as he was the only shop open, God knows how he justified it as the only food he sells are crisps and sweets. He had tannoy announcements saying he was extending his opening hours and still had a queue 20 people long at 08:00.

Conversely you had garden centres with pallet loads of compost etc that they could not see a way of selling to desperate customers..

Yeah agreed. My local coffee shop just arranged tables across the front of the shop and put the till there with loads of produce, made a simple queue system outside. Probably wiser to do that and assess demand rather than refit the shop right off the bat. Fair play to either though, better than sitting at home hoping things will improve.

Pross

In my own situation I've bought an espresso machine and now have a subscription for a monthly delivery of beans from a local business. It's every bit as good as any I've bought and far better than the big name coffee chains make and I enjoy the process of making it (and the smell in the house). It's saving me money as is the lack of a commute and as a result I am able to buy bits and pieces from local stores that I would have considered a luxury previously. The jobs in coffee shops etc. are generally unskilled, near minimum wage and so in most cases I would have thought that other opportunities will arise as businesses diversify. The employees most affected are those in the offices of the larger companies such as Starbucks and the shareholders in those companies. I doubt the Government are overly bothered about preserving the jobs of those on minimum wage.

briantrumpet

Ah, we've found a funny right wing comedian: Downing Street.

"Downing Street has denied there was ever a campaign to encourage employees back to the office, amid criticism the drive was struggling to tempt people to leave their homes.

A public information campaign encouraging people to return to their workplaces was originally scheduled to begin on Friday, with ministers such as Transport Secretary Grant Shapps saying last week the message from Government was that "it is now safe to go back to work".

But the initially aggressive messaging - in which home workers were threatened with losing their jobs - prompted a huge backlash, including from Tory backbenches.

Today the Prime Minister's official spokesman said: "There has never been a 'back to work' campaign." Instead, he claimed there was a "press partnership campaign with regional and local media... on a variety of topics to do with the coronavirus response".

pblakeney

Pross said:

I doubt the Government are overly bothered about preserving the jobs of those on minimum wage.

They will be when the unemployment figures get released.

surrey_commuter

briantrumpet said:

Ah, we've found a funny right wing comedian: Downing Street.

"Downing Street has denied there was ever a campaign to encourage employees back to the office, amid criticism the drive was struggling to tempt people to leave their homes.

A public information campaign encouraging people to return to their workplaces was originally scheduled to begin on Friday, with ministers such as Transport Secretary Grant Shapps saying last week the message from Government was that "it is now safe to go back to work".

But the initially aggressive messaging - in which home workers were threatened with losing their jobs - prompted a huge backlash, including from Tory backbenches.

Today the Prime Minister's official spokesman said: "There has never been a 'back to work' campaign." Instead, he claimed there was a "press partnership campaign with regional and local media... on a variety of topics to do with the coronavirus response".

That is actually quite funny. I remember at the time thinking "why would anybody listen to Grant Shapps" and I guess that is their problem they have nobody with any gravitas.