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  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 22,148
    rjsterry said:

    From what I have read Pakistan's ISI are the main funder, though I'm sure there are others.
    Yes, they certainly were. The need for a drug route to Europe, opportunity to sell weapons and a stable neighbour under their control were the motivations. Nonetheless, some of those billions from the western countries could have been spent on preventing the drug route which would have removed the money for the weapons.

    There's also the question of what China is up to. Only last year, they were planning to build a road through the Wakhan corridor as part of the Belt and Road Initiative.
  • elbowloh
    elbowloh Posts: 7,078
    edited August 2021

    Yes, they certainly were. The need for a drug route to Europe, opportunity to sell weapons and a stable neighbour under their control were the motivations. Nonetheless, some of those billions from the western countries could have been spent on preventing the drug route which would have removed the money for the weapons.

    There's also the question of what China is up to. Only last year, they were planning to build a road through the Wakhan corridor as part of the Belt and Road Initiative.
    Its telling that both Russia and China are keeping their embassies open and not evacuating.
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  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,339
    I never understood why western drug companies weren't encouraged to buy their opium from Aghanistan rather than growing it themselves in high security.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 22,148

    I never understood why western drug companies weren't encouraged to buy their opium from Aghanistan rather than growing it themselves in high security.

    In the US, they can buy it from drug seizures. The money from the seizures then goes to fund stuff. A few years ago there was some story about the US selling drugs the UK had seized, so the money was offered to the UK who couldn't accept it.
  • Jezyboy said:

    It would seem the Afgan army offered little resistance?
    why fight for a losing cause?
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,339

    In the US, they can buy it from drug seizures. The money from the seizures then goes to fund stuff. A few years ago there was some story about the US selling drugs the UK had seized, so the money was offered to the UK who couldn't accept it.
    I know they also have high security plantations growing opium, at least in Australia.

    Just read that the USA, to try to prevent the proliferation of growing of opium poppies and over supply, has had a rule since 1979 that the USA will not be self sufficient, and that 80% of its imports of narcotic raw materials must come from India or Turkey as they are the traditional producers (so it diverts them from the illegal trade) and only India actually cultivates poppies for it.
  • john80
    john80 Posts: 2,965
    You cannot win a war against those that don't share your basic beliefs. The Taliban think it is normal to treat women as possession and meet out justice on a whim. You are literally trying to persuade a mentally insane person that they are not insane. They think it is normal to have a justice system that is not far removed from a tribal elders do what they want style of justice. Wife is giving you hassle just say she has been sleeping around and you can join in the stoning and get the next bride from the local elders.

    Part of me thinks that given it is women in Afghanistan who will lose most we should have spent the last 20 years arming them to the teeth and training them to be militia instead of training a male army. When everyone's missus is packing heat and is a bit pissed of about their daughter not getting educated or being raped by the local idiot then good luck dealing with that.

    As always it is for the local population of a country to sort out their issues and unfortunately this requires sacrifice. The arrogance of nations such as the US and UK to believe that they can affect change on the ground is a lesson that keeps giving.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    Will be a lot of refugees - I wonder how Priti Patel will handle that. Well, I don't really wonder, I am quite pessimistic.
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 30,002
    Horrific scenes at Kabul Airport. People clinging to the undercarriage as planes take off only to fall to their deaths.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
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  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,761

    I'd be very surprised if the Taliban went after any foreigners particularly US ones.

    Agreed. They've got the country now, giving any excuses to NATO et al to go back after them would be stupid. I'd be concerned if I was there as a PMC though, I doubt they'll be allowed to walk away unharmed.

    The Government apparently hadn't paid the ANA and ANP for a few months so it's no surprise they collapsed so quickly at the end especially as the Taliban were allegedly offering them a few hundred dollars to change sides. You would want to be seen as loyal to the Government when the Taliban were knocking at the door even if they were still paying you
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 22,148
    Pross said:

    Agreed. They've got the country now, giving any excuses to NATO et al to go back after them would be stupid. I'd be concerned if I was there as a PMC though, I doubt they'll be allowed to walk away unharmed.

    The Government apparently hadn't paid the ANA and ANP for a few months so it's no surprise they collapsed so quickly at the end especially as the Taliban were allegedly offering them a few hundred dollars to change sides. You would want to be seen as loyal to the Government when the Taliban were knocking at the door even if they were still paying you
    It appears the former government was mostly focused on lining their own palms which is why they have so little support. This was the problem before the Taliban took over the first time as well.

    Also, thanks for understanding my original post which seems to have been lost on some people.

  • Jezyboy
    Jezyboy Posts: 3,685
    edited August 2021
    So far I think my favourite take is that this is basically fine because life isn't "that" bad under the taliban.

    I should point out that it's my favourite as it is absolutely nuts.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 22,148
    Jezyboy said:

    So far I think my favourite take is that this is basically fine because life isn't "that" bad under the taliban.

    I should point out that it's my favourite as it is absolutely nuts.

    For some it won't even be a change of lifestyle. The burka shop may be doing a roaring trade now, but it was still in business for the last 20 years.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    edited August 2021
    I can’t get my head around after 20 years being caught by surprise by the taliban advance.

    I mean, wtf are the intelligence people doing?

    It looks like for the most part the taliban were just unopposed.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,339
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,339
    Was there an assumption it wouldn't happen even though it was going to happen?
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,708
    If anything surprises me it is that people are surprised.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    pblakeney said:

    If anything surprises me it is that people are surprised.

    That they were caught by surprise by the speed of the taliban advance?
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 22,148
    Former president seems to have filled his car boots with cash when he left the country. Really doesn't sound like he will be missed by anyone.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,708
    edited August 2021

    That they were caught by surprise by the speed of the taliban advance?
    The speed may be surprising but the results were very much predictable.

    I'd have been making plans to evacuate when the American started making plans.
    I'd have started the procedure when the Americans did. Depending on location any time between 1st May and last week. Certainly once the cities started falling.

    I have a friend in Pakistan. They already have emergency bags packed and contingency plans. Have done so since arrival.

    PS - I am referring primarily to the Brits there. Any Afghans with the ways and means too. I feel sorry for the innocent general public.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    edited August 2021

    Former president seems to have filled his car boots with cash when he left the country. Really doesn't sound like he will be missed by anyone.

    I know you like to be mr contrary but this is the taliban taking over we’re talking about here.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    pblakeney said:

    The speed may be surprising but the results were very much predictable.

    I'd have been making plans to evacuate when the American started making plans.
    I'd have started the procedure when the Americans did. Depending on location any time between 1st May and last week. Certainly once the cities started falling.

    I have a friend in Pakistan. They already have emergency bags packed and contingency plans. Have done so since arrival.

    PS - I am referring primarily to the Brits there. Any Afghans with the ways and means too. I feel sorry for the innocent general public.
    I see it as the forces have been there for 20 years. Absolutely no reason for such a disorderly withdrawal.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,708

    I see it as the forces have been there for 20 years. Absolutely no reason for such a disorderly withdrawal.
    I see any reluctance to evacuate ASAP from the withdrawal being announced as naive and overly optimistic. I am more cynical, as everyone knows.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 22,148

    I know you like to be mr contrary but this is the taliban taking over we’re talking about here.
    And one of the reasons they have taken over very easily is the corruption. No better sign of that than when the former leader abandons the country with his loot.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    edited August 2021
    Sure but let’s be clear, plenty of people will miss the period not being under the taliban
  • Jezyboy
    Jezyboy Posts: 3,685

    For some it won't even be a change of lifestyle. The burka shop may be doing a roaring trade now, but it was still in business for the last 20 years.
    So it seems pretty disastrous for all young women. Judging by the scenes at Kabul Airport it also seems undesirable for loads of young men. I guess the hope is that this time the taliban don't get themselves caught up in international terrorist organisations, and so long as that's the case, we'll leave them alone.

    As for the mountains of physical cash the ex politicians are leaving with...well it is disgusting, but politicians over the world are corrupt and I don't think I have seen an example where the hard-line fanatics posing as alternatives are any better.
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 30,002
    Jezyboy said:

    So it seems pretty disastrous for all young women. Judging by the scenes at Kabul Airport it also seems undesirable for loads of young men. I guess the hope is that this time the taliban don't get themselves caught up in international terrorist organisations, and so long as that's the case, we'll leave them alone.

    As for the mountains of physical cash the ex politicians are leaving with...well it is disgusting, but politicians over the world are corrupt and I don't think I have seen an example where the hard-line fanatics posing as alternatives are any better.
    From what I have read, it was not just the political leaders. Senior officers in the army were also siphoning off food and money. Add that to the high casualty rates in the Afghan army and the US removing their support and it is no wonder morale collapsed.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,339
    I'm less convinced by the thought that leaving 2,500 us forces there would have held. No matter what the generals say.

    The evacuation should have been more organised, but the choice was to leave or increase forces. The taliban wouldn't have just sat on their hands if the US had ignored the deal they'd struck.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    edited August 2021
    I think for many people (and I'd include myself in this) they hadn't paid much attention to the Trump deal, as Afghanistan was this constant background to US geopolitics, and in hindsight of course it seems like a bad idea - and this is the end game of those bad decisions.

    I suspect the third way between continuing the previous decade's efforts and leaving abruptly was a sort of UN/NATO style peacekeeping mission, rather like you see in other parts of the world, to protect the citizens from the Taliban.

    I get BB's point that it is all pointless if the alternatives are just in it to loot the country, but I would have thought it incumbent on the invaders, who went in with a lot of chat about protecting Afgans from the taliban that they follow through.

    I mean, the Taliban are really awful. Really awful.

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