LEAVE the Conservative Party and save your country!

tailwindhome

Boris Johnson press conference on now. It's quite a thing.

rjsterry

Coopster the 1st wrote:

KingstonGraham wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Telegraph ComRes Poll wrote:

Boris Johnson is the only Tory leadership candidate capable of beating both Jeremy Corbyn and the Brexit Party, according to new polling which suggests he would win a crushing 140-seat majority for the Conservatives at the next general election if he was elected Prime Minister.

Quite a simple decision for those Tory MP's that want to keep their seat

This should please all the snowflakes

What happened to your disdain for opinion polls?

It's the snowflakes reaction to it. Remoaners are now searching for all the ways possible to discredit it

Remoaners have lost their chance of BRINO by voting it down. That Boris as PM also means a huge majority for the Conservatives is only a good thing for the UK. My vote and millions of others would move back to the Conservatives if a proper Leaver e.g. Boris, was PM.

He's the favourite to win the party leadership and will probably be PM, but that poll is making some big leaps to get to the 140 seat majority. As pointed out, May had a similar lead in a similar poll when she took over, and look how that turned out.

bianchimoon

TailWindHome wrote:

Boris Johnson press conference on now. It's quite a thing.

Now is the time to come out of the European Union and intensify our trading relationships with those European countries?

pinno

TailWindHome wrote:

Boris Johnson press conference on now. It's quite a thing.

Given that one of their brethren had their ribs broken [Coopster - did you read the quote?], it's Turkey shoot time for the press.

I'm sorry, I didn't mean to insult Turkeys.

kingstongraham

Coopster the 1st wrote:

KingstonGraham wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Telegraph ComRes Poll wrote:

Boris Johnson is the only Tory leadership candidate capable of beating both Jeremy Corbyn and the Brexit Party, according to new polling which suggests he would win a crushing 140-seat majority for the Conservatives at the next general election if he was elected Prime Minister.

Quite a simple decision for those Tory MP's that want to keep their seat

This should please all the snowflakes

What happened to your disdain for opinion polls?

It's the snowflakes reaction to it. Remoaners are now searching for all the ways possible to discredit it

Remoaners have lost their chance of BRINO by voting it down. That Boris as PM also means a huge majority for the Conservatives is only a good thing for the UK. My vote and millions of others would move back to the Conservatives if a proper Leaver e.g. Boris, was PM.

Sometimes you take this persona too far.

coopster_the_1st

rjsterry wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

KingstonGraham wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Telegraph ComRes Poll wrote:

Boris Johnson is the only Tory leadership candidate capable of beating both Jeremy Corbyn and the Brexit Party, according to new polling which suggests he would win a crushing 140-seat majority for the Conservatives at the next general election if he was elected Prime Minister.

Quite a simple decision for those Tory MP's that want to keep their seat

This should please all the snowflakes

What happened to your disdain for opinion polls?

It's the snowflakes reaction to it. Remoaners are now searching for all the ways possible to discredit it

Remoaners have lost their chance of BRINO by voting it down. That Boris as PM also means a huge majority for the Conservatives is only a good thing for the UK. My vote and millions of others would move back to the Conservatives if a proper Leaver e.g. Boris, was PM.

He's the favourite to win the party leadership and will probably be PM, but that poll is making some big leaps to get to the 140 seat majority. As pointed out, May had a similar lead in a similar poll when she took over, and look how that turned out.

He is the only candidate that returns a Conservateive majority based on the poll. The remoaners wet dream of Rory Stewart means the Brexit Party get the most number of seats. Even with some margin of error it shows where the electoral support is for the Tories to recover from the disaster of May.

tailwindhome

Coopster the 1st wrote:

KingstonGraham wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Telegraph ComRes Poll wrote:

Boris Johnson is the only Tory leadership candidate capable of beating both Jeremy Corbyn and the Brexit Party, according to new polling which suggests he would win a crushing 140-seat majority for the Conservatives at the next general election if he was elected Prime Minister.

Quite a simple decision for those Tory MP's that want to keep their seat

This should please all the snowflakes

What happened to your disdain for opinion polls?

It's the snowflakes reaction to it. Remoaners are now searching for all the ways possible to discredit it

Remoaners have lost their chance of BRINO by voting it down. That Boris as PM also means a huge majority for the Conservatives is only a good thing for the UK. My vote and millions of others would move back to the Conservatives if a proper Leaver e.g. Boris, was PM.

I wonder if the new PM, who was the marquee speaker at the DUP conference before voting for the withdrawal deal and backstop, will enjoy the confidence of the DUP.

kingstongraham

TailWindHome wrote:

I wonder if the new PM, who was the marquee speaker at the DUP conference before voting for the withdrawal deal and backstop, will enjoy the confidence of the DUP.

If he doesn't, is he even the PM?

rjsterry

Coopster the 1st wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

KingstonGraham wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Telegraph ComRes Poll wrote:

Boris Johnson is the only Tory leadership candidate capable of beating both Jeremy Corbyn and the Brexit Party, according to new polling which suggests he would win a crushing 140-seat majority for the Conservatives at the next general election if he was elected Prime Minister.

Quite a simple decision for those Tory MP's that want to keep their seat

This should please all the snowflakes

What happened to your disdain for opinion polls?

It's the snowflakes reaction to it. Remoaners are now searching for all the ways possible to discredit it

Remoaners have lost their chance of BRINO by voting it down. That Boris as PM also means a huge majority for the Conservatives is only a good thing for the UK. My vote and millions of others would move back to the Conservatives if a proper Leaver e.g. Boris, was PM.

He's the favourite to win the party leadership and will probably be PM, but that poll is making some big leaps to get to the 140 seat majority. As pointed out, May had a similar lead in a similar poll when she took over, and look how that turned out.

He is the only candidate that returns a Conservateive majority based on the poll. The remoaners wet dream of Rory Stewart means the Brexit Party get the most number of seats. Even with some margin of error it shows where the electoral support is for the Tories to recover from the disaster of May.

Read it again. The poll asked 'How would you vote if X was Conservative party leader?'

It's true that Johnson did the best of those listed but another question in the same poll shows Labour with a five point lead over the Conservatives in a GE.

Labour 23%

Brexit Party 19%

Conservative 18%

Liberal Democrats 16%

Don't know 15%

That appears to swing in the Tories favour if Johnson is leader but the Don't know increases to 21%.
Turning the data about preference of Tory leader into numbers of seats relies on a number of obviously unreliable assumptions.

Here's the actual poll data
https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/comr ... june-2019/

And here's why the reported 140 seat majority is a stab in the dark.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/statu ... 3191554048

rjsterry

This seems to be relevant. Evidence that Johnson's main support lies in the hard right of the no-deal wing of the party. That bodes well for his election as leader but will they be disappointed with the results?

http://theconversation.com/boris-johnso ... als-118633

rick_chasey

rjsterry wrote:

This seems to be relevant. Evidence that Johnson's main support lies in the hard right of the no-deal wing of the party. That bodes well for his election as leader but will they be disappointed with the results?

http://theconversation.com/boris-johnso ... als-118633

Other than no deal, explain how BoJo will make a material difference to the current Brexit predicament.

bianchimoon

rjsterry wrote:

This seems to be relevant. Evidence that Johnson's main support lies in the hard right of the no-deal wing of the party. That bodes well for his election as leader but will they be disappointed with the results?

http://theconversation.com/boris-johnso ... als-118633

All the Kippers coming back into the fold skewing opinion?

rjsterry

Rick Chasey wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

This seems to be relevant. Evidence that Johnson's main support lies in the hard right of the no-deal wing of the party. That bodes well for his election as leader but will they be disappointed with the results?

http://theconversation.com/boris-johnso ... als-118633

Other than no deal, explain how BoJo will make a material difference to the current Brexit predicament.

The thing is Johnson might make these nutters go weak at the knees but there aren't anywhere near enough of them to keep him in no. 10. So to some extent he will have to disappoint them. He's already conceded that failing to meet his 31st October target will not be a resignation matter.

pblakeney

Rick Chasey wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

This seems to be relevant. Evidence that Johnson's main support lies in the hard right of the no-deal wing of the party. That bodes well for his election as leader but will they be disappointed with the results?

http://theconversation.com/boris-johnso ... als-118633

Other than no deal, explain how BoJo will make a material difference to the current Brexit predicament.

Except he has said that he doesn’t want no deal. He is only using it as a bargaining tool. Except it is a useless tool if people know that. Much like Boris himself.

kajjal

rjsterry wrote:

This seems to be relevant. Evidence that Johnson's main support lies in the hard right of the no-deal wing of the party. That bodes well for his election as leader but will they be disappointed with the results?

http://theconversation.com/boris-johnso ... als-118633

His opportunist political decisions have trapped him in an increasingly far right position having to continually deny reality. He cannot deliver what he has vaguely promised so will do the Farage trick of changing the promise before having to deliver it.

bianchimoon

PBlakeney wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

This seems to be relevant. Evidence that Johnson's main support lies in the hard right of the no-deal wing of the party. That bodes well for his election as leader but will they be disappointed with the results?

http://theconversation.com/boris-johnso ... als-118633

Other than no deal, explain how BoJo will make a material difference to the current Brexit predicament.

Except he has said that he doesn’t want no deal. He is only using it as a bargaining tool. Except it is a useless tool if people know that. Much like Boris himself.

He wants PM on his CV if only for a few months, purely for the after US dinner circuit,

rick_chasey

It's hard to see a BoJo PM as anything but contributing to the rather dramatic downfall of the Tory party.

I can't really see how it ends any other way, realistically.

tailwindhome

Rick Chasey wrote:

It's hard to see a BoJo PM as anything but contributing to the rather dramatic downfall of the Tory party.

I can't really see how it ends any other way, realistically.

It's telling that no one is promoting him for leader/PM based on ability or suitability for the role.

orraloon

de Pfeffel will just carry on as usual, lie, deny, emit whatever words he thinks promote his self interest, bluster, busk it and do F all. Article below summarises.

https://bylinetimes.com/2019/06/12/the- ... ver-falls/

Jez mon

Rick Chasey wrote:

It's hard to see a BoJo PM as anything but contributing to the rather dramatic downfall of the Tory party.

I can't really see how it ends any other way, realistically.

I don't see anyone else doing markedly better.

I think Rory Stewart might have some of the Cameron type electoral appeal. But can't see him getting to the final two, let alone being chosen by the party members.

Even ignoring that, with the lack of parliamentary majority, I don't see him being able to be effective as PM.

rolf_f

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Remoaners have lost their chance of BRINO by voting it down. That Boris as PM also means a huge majority for the Conservatives is only a good thing for the UK. My vote and millions of others would move back to the Conservatives if a proper Leaver e.g. Boris, was PM.

Why would a remainer vote for a hard brexit? You would think that anything other than no deal is BRINO but you are in a small minority there.

I'm sure your vote and millions of others would move back to the Tories if Bojo was leading the party. Unfortunately for you (but fortunately for the country), millions of other votes would also leave the Tories at the same time. There are no simple solutions to this (other, arguably, than no deal).

rick_chasey

It's curious - presumably most folk know BoJo is on the fibber spectrum, and folk will put him on various points on that spectrum - but he's still the favourite and still polls relatively better than the others (even if he is also more disliked).

In which case, folk, rather like folk who voted for Trump (and perhaps rather like the entire Italian electorate) don't give a sh!t about integrity, and only really care about the destination.

It's all too easy to see it as the a slippery slope to really quite nasty stuff - I can't really see how it doesn't make that stuff much more likely to happen.

rjsterry

Rick Chasey wrote:

It's curious - presumably most folk know BoJo is on the fibber spectrum, and folk will put him on various points on that spectrum - but he's still the favourite and still polls relatively better than the others (even if he is also more disliked).

In which case, folk, rather like folk who voted for Trump (and perhaps rather like the entire Italian electorate) don't give a sh!t about integrity, and only really care about the destination.

It's all too easy to see it as the a slippery slope to really quite nasty stuff - I can't really see how it doesn't make that stuff much more likely to happen.

Sadly, I think it's as much about who's been on telly. That's a large part of Farage's success - get your face out there more than the other guy (who most likely will want to talk about policy and not be quite so much of a rampant self-publicist) and you will win a lot of votes purely on recognition.

FocusZing

Rick Chasey wrote:

It's curious - presumably most folk know BoJo is on the fibber spectrum, and folk will put him on various points on that spectrum - but he's still the favourite and still polls relatively better than the others (even if he is also more disliked).

In which case, folk, rather like folk who voted for Trump (and perhaps rather like the entire Italian electorate) don't give a sh!t about integrity, and only really care about the destination.

It's all too easy to see it as the a slippery slope to really quite nasty stuff - I can't really see how it doesn't make that stuff much more likely to happen.

Is it because akin to Trump they have courted celebrity and people just recognise their names and think they know them. Which other politicians can you say that of from the perspective of most people where politics is background noise?

People know him as a smart bloke who comes across as a bumbling buffoon and doesn't appear to take himself too seriously being funny with it.

rjsterry

Stewart has jumped to second place in a ConservativeHome poll of members. Is he positioning to be the guy who takes over when Johnson crashes and burns at the end of October?

Jez mon

Rick Chasey wrote:

It's curious - presumably most folk know BoJo is on the fibber spectrum, and folk will put him on various points on that spectrum - but he's still the favourite and still polls relatively better than the others (even if he is also more disliked).

In which case, folk, rather like folk who voted for Trump (and perhaps rather like the entire Italian electorate) don't give a sh!t about integrity, and only really care about the destination.

It's all too easy to see it as the a slippery slope to really quite nasty stuff - I can't really see how it doesn't make that stuff much more likely to happen.

Do most people see there being a fibber spectrum?

I think a lot just think they all lie, so it doesn't matter how big or frequent the lies are, if anything the bigger and more frequent the better, almost as if the lies are being their true selves.

rick_chasey

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... el-farage/

I spotted this on the front page of the telegraph last night.

Conservative Party donors have opened secret talks with Nigel Farage about an electoral pact which would see the party not stand candidates against the Brexit Party in dozens of seats at a snap general election.

Seems the Tories really are going full von Papen.

rolf_f

Jez mon wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

It's curious - presumably most folk know BoJo is on the fibber spectrum, and folk will put him on various points on that spectrum - but he's still the favourite and still polls relatively better than the others (even if he is also more disliked).

In which case, folk, rather like folk who voted for Trump (and perhaps rather like the entire Italian electorate) don't give a sh!t about integrity, and only really care about the destination.

It's all too easy to see it as the a slippery slope to really quite nasty stuff - I can't really see how it doesn't make that stuff much more likely to happen.

Do most people see there being a fibber spectrum?

I think a lot just think they all lie, so it doesn't matter how big or frequent the lies are, if anything the bigger and more frequent the better, almost as if the lies are being their true selves.

Possibly the difference was that in the old days people at least tried to lie reasonably convincingly. Now it's all out in the open - eg Bojo publically telling different people he is in favour of different mutually exclusive policies (which happen to align with however he is talking to at the time). Presumably those he is lying to always think he is telling them the truth and lying to the other person. That's the problem with electing idiots.

coopster_the_1st

Rick Chasey wrote:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/16/exclusive-conservative-donors-open-secret-talks-nigel-farage/

I spotted this on the front page of the telegraph last night.

Conservative Party donors have opened secret talks with Nigel Farage about an electoral pact which would see the party not stand candidates against the Brexit Party in dozens of seats at a snap general election.

Seems the Tories really are going full von Papen.

You have no problem with the Greens and LD's doing this but when the pro-leave side do the same you go all pant wetting

kingstongraham

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/16/exclusive-conservative-donors-open-secret-talks-nigel-farage/

I spotted this on the front page of the telegraph last night.

Conservative Party donors have opened secret talks with Nigel Farage about an electoral pact which would see the party not stand candidates against the Brexit Party in dozens of seats at a snap general election.

Seems the Tories really are going full von Papen.

You have no problem with the Greens and LD's doing this but when the pro-leave side do the same you go all pant wetting

If the Conservative party want to align themselves with Farage, that's up to them. They don't seem to be considering the longer term consequences of it.