LEAVE the Conservative Party and save your country!

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  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,811
    KingstonGraham wrote:
    morstar wrote:
    KingstonGraham wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Jez mon wrote:
    The only GE that Corbyn has contested resulted in Conservative losses and Labour gains. I'm not sure your £3 helped at all Stevo?
    We've had this conversation before. Did Corbyn get into Number 10? If the answer is no, job done.

    Without your £3 it's unlikely May would have risked a 2017 GE, so no benefit from it yet.

    I'd actually disagree. We've managed to not leave Europe courtesy of May giving away her majority on the perceived weakness of Corbyn led Labour.

    It's still to be decided if that is a benefit or not. It depends on whether and how we do leave.

    It's not. The stalemate is already having measurable negative economic consequences.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • morstar
    morstar Posts: 6,190
    KingstonGraham wrote:
    morstar wrote:
    KingstonGraham wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Jez mon wrote:
    The only GE that Corbyn has contested resulted in Conservative losses and Labour gains. I'm not sure your £3 helped at all Stevo?
    We've had this conversation before. Did Corbyn get into Number 10? If the answer is no, job done.

    Without your £3 it's unlikely May would have risked a 2017 GE, so no benefit from it yet.

    I'd actually disagree. We've managed to not leave Europe courtesy of May giving away her majority on the perceived weakness of Corbyn led Labour.

    It's still to be decided if that is a benefit or not. It depends on whether and how we do leave.

    At this moment in time, a clear benefit as we are still in. In a few months, it may prove to be a bad thing if we leave in a chaotic manner.
    The short termism seems to fit with the thread.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,808
    rjsterry wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    rjsterry wrote:
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    interesting times. The Tories are famous for sticking together to win elections. Without that incentive they really do look to broad a church. By the time they take JC seriously will it be too late?

    Yes. They've blown it. Odds of Stevo's £3 backfiring spectacularly are looking pretty strong. I don't think he'll get a decisive win, but his opposition are likely to be diminished to the point that he can cobble together a workable coalition.
    My £3 has kept them out for quite a while and given me masses of entertainment value since I started the other thread back in 2015 :)

    Let's see what happens next, it's all very unpredictable. On the basis that we hope for the best and plan for the worst, it might be worth having your contingency plans in place just in case, as I never guaranteed I could hep you by keeping them out for a generation - that would probably require a short spell of New Old Labour being in power so that people remember just how shyte socialism is...

    Brexit is eroding Labour support as well; just not as quickly as it is the Conservatives. I think we are in for more instability with no one party in control. That there are Conservative MPs suggrsting some sort of pact with the party that wants to destroy them just shows how desperate things are getting.
    To be fair, we haven't suggested a pact with the Lib Dems yet :wink:
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,811
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    rjsterry wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    rjsterry wrote:
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    interesting times. The Tories are famous for sticking together to win elections. Without that incentive they really do look to broad a church. By the time they take JC seriously will it be too late?

    Yes. They've blown it. Odds of Stevo's £3 backfiring spectacularly are looking pretty strong. I don't think he'll get a decisive win, but his opposition are likely to be diminished to the point that he can cobble together a workable coalition.
    My £3 has kept them out for quite a while and given me masses of entertainment value since I started the other thread back in 2015 :)

    Let's see what happens next, it's all very unpredictable. On the basis that we hope for the best and plan for the worst, it might be worth having your contingency plans in place just in case, as I never guaranteed I could hep you by keeping them out for a generation - that would probably require a short spell of New Old Labour being in power so that people remember just how shyte socialism is...

    Brexit is eroding Labour support as well; just not as quickly as it is the Conservatives. I think we are in for more instability with no one party in control. That there are Conservative MPs suggrsting some sort of pact with the party that wants to destroy them just shows how desperate things are getting.
    To be fair, we haven't suggested a pact with the Lib Dems yet :wink:

    What, "Killa" Cable? :lol:
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,808
    rjsterry wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    rjsterry wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    rjsterry wrote:
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    interesting times. The Tories are famous for sticking together to win elections. Without that incentive they really do look to broad a church. By the time they take JC seriously will it be too late?

    Yes. They've blown it. Odds of Stevo's £3 backfiring spectacularly are looking pretty strong. I don't think he'll get a decisive win, but his opposition are likely to be diminished to the point that he can cobble together a workable coalition.
    My £3 has kept them out for quite a while and given me masses of entertainment value since I started the other thread back in 2015 :)

    Let's see what happens next, it's all very unpredictable. On the basis that we hope for the best and plan for the worst, it might be worth having your contingency plans in place just in case, as I never guaranteed I could hep you by keeping them out for a generation - that would probably require a short spell of New Old Labour being in power so that people remember just how shyte socialism is...

    Brexit is eroding Labour support as well; just not as quickly as it is the Conservatives. I think we are in for more instability with no one party in control. That there are Conservative MPs suggrsting some sort of pact with the party that wants to destroy them just shows how desperate things are getting.
    To be fair, we haven't suggested a pact with the Lib Dems yet :wink:

    What, "Killa" Cable? :lol:
    I do hope that's not the nickname he gave himself :D
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,811
    Grim mood in the party.
    “I wish the Conservative party’s problems were as easy as changing the leader,” said one centrist Tory MP. “The Brexit party is eating our core vote … after three years of not delivering on Brexit it’s hard to credibly beat them now.

    “I think the party has got to think very carefully about thinking all its problems can be solved by out-Brexiting the Brexit party, which comes at a price of alienating a huge swath of Britain that doesn’t want hard Brexit and is almost certainly the majority.”

    Odds of Johnson becoming leader of a smaller party seem strong.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,808
    rjsterry wrote:
    Grim mood in the party.
    “I wish the Conservative party’s problems were as easy as changing the leader,” said one centrist Tory MP. “The Brexit party is eating our core vote … after three years of not delivering on Brexit it’s hard to credibly beat them now.

    “I think the party has got to think very carefully about thinking all its problems can be solved by out-Brexiting the Brexit party, which comes at a price of alienating a huge swath of Britain that doesn’t want hard Brexit and is almost certainly the majority.”

    Odds of Johnson becoming leader of a smaller party seem strong.
    Be realistic, he'll never be voted in as leader of the Lib Dems.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • verylonglegs
    verylonglegs Posts: 4,023
    rjsterry wrote:
    Grim mood in the party.
    “I wish the Conservative party’s problems were as easy as changing the leader,” said one centrist Tory MP. “The Brexit party is eating our core vote … after three years of not delivering on Brexit it’s hard to credibly beat them now.

    “I think the party has got to think very carefully about thinking all its problems can be solved by out-Brexiting the Brexit party, which comes at a price of alienating a huge swath of Britain that doesn’t want hard Brexit and is almost certainly the majority.”

    Odds of Johnson becoming leader of a smaller party seem strong.

    Daniel Finkelstein wrote something along those lines not so long ago and reiterated the point to an ERG member during an interview on TV. He said you'll fail to get your hard Brexit and likely also make way for a Labour government at the same time if you keep lurching to the right. I don't recall Mr ERG's response but I doubt the advice sunk very far in anyway.
  • morstar
    morstar Posts: 6,190
    edited May 2019
    verylonglegs wrote:
    rjsterry wrote:
    Grim mood in the party.
    “I wish the Conservative party’s problems were as easy as changing the leader,” said one centrist Tory MP. “The Brexit party is eating our core vote … after three years of not delivering on Brexit it’s hard to credibly beat them now.

    “I think the party has got to think very carefully about thinking all its problems can be solved by out-Brexiting the Brexit party, which comes at a price of alienating a huge swath of Britain that doesn’t want hard Brexit and is almost certainly the majority.”

    Odds of Johnson becoming leader of a smaller party seem strong.

    Daniel Finkelstein wrote something along those lines not so long ago and reiterated the point to an ERG member during an interview on TV. He said you'll fail to get your hard Brexit and likely also make way for a Labour government at the same time if you keep lurching to the right. I don't recall Mr ERG's response but I doubt the advice sunk very far in anyway.
    They're definitely in a tight spot. They are already losing / have lost their* anti europe support. By lurching hard right to regain that support they risk driving away the less extreme membership leaving them very weak indeed.
    Come a GE, both left and right voters will probably make more pragmatic decisions (revert to type) than they are right now (protest votes) but I genuinely feel we may have seen a permanent shift in party support on both left and right.

    *edit for typo
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    Austerity coming home to roost.


    Bet they’re glad to see the UN report on poverty has been brushed under the carpet.
    _
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,459
    D7UBiGLXoAAN-mZ.jpg:large
    Nicholas Whyte@nwbrux

    Glorious new bit of Flemish vocabulary for me from @DeStandaard profile of Boris Johnson today: “tafelspringer”, which combines the concepts of trouble-maker, show-off and smart-alec, as in someone who jumps onto a table to tell everyone how clever they are.
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    IT'S DUTCH. FLEMISH IS DUTCH WITH A FUNNY ACCENT.

    As you were.
    _
  • mrfpb
    mrfpb Posts: 4,569
    One (possibly) credible source of info on who is winning the popularity contest.

    You may wish to wipe your internet history after visiting this site:

    https://www.conservativehome.com/parlia ... id-10.html
  • verylonglegs
    verylonglegs Posts: 4,023
    mrfpb wrote:
    One (possibly) credible source of info on who is winning the popularity contest.

    You may wish to wipe your internet history after visiting this site:

    https://www.conservativehome.com/parlia ... id-10.html

    The comments are more interesting, they lay bare how much of a mess the party is in, it really is two parties in one.

    Apparently Rory Stewart has already ruled out working in a Johnson led cabinet so on it goes.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,592
    It comes to something when Hunt and Gove look like the best options. If Leadsom stands I can imagine some scandal emerging of her being part of some middle class swinging group, she looks the type (I've now made myself feel ill!).
  • mrfpb
    mrfpb Posts: 4,569
    verylonglegs wrote:
    mrfpb wrote:
    One (possibly) credible source of info on who is winning the popularity contest.

    You may wish to wipe your internet history after visiting this site:

    https://www.conservativehome.com/parlia ... id-10.html

    The comments are more interesting, they lay bare how much of a mess the party is in, it really is two parties in one.

    Apparently Rory Stewart has already ruled out working in a Johnson led cabinet so on it goes.

    This is a more detailed post, all potential candidates, and supporters who are willing to be named:

    https://www.conservativehome.com/parlia ... id-10.html

    Hunt has the numbers, but Boris seems to have the "names"
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    So the worst election result ever for a party that existed for almost 200 years
    _
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,811
    More blue on blue action :roll:

    May's not actually stepped down yet, but already someone is referring to one of the candidates as a suicide bomber.
    Nadine Dorries
    (@NadineDorries)
    As @ShippersUnbound reported a leaked WhattApp paints him as a political suicide bomber. Absolutely no chance he will be voted for. Wants to ‘take out’ Boris and Dominic with nasty comments and then back Gove, who denies all knowledge. The stop Boris team in all its nasty glory. https://t.co/FeXy8qzddL

    May 28, 2019

    Classy.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • orraloon
    orraloon Posts: 13,269
    Following on from the examples of such Con party luminaries as Neil (cash for questions) Hamilton and Jeffrey (dodgy fundraiser and perjurer extraordinaire) Archer, as a 'member' of said Con party like wot gets to vote on the final 2, I offer cash for vote (singular). Whoever bungs me the biggest wad can choose which one I vote for. Can't say fairer than that. Every vote counts. Or summat.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    orraloon wrote:
    Following on from the examples of such Con party luminaries as Neil (cash for questions) Hamilton and Jeffrey (dodgy fundraiser and perjurer extraordinaire) Archer, as a 'member' of said Con party like wot gets to vote on the final 2, I offer cash for vote (singular). Whoever bungs me the biggest wad can choose which one I vote for. Can't say fairer than that. Every vote counts. Or summat.

    Isn’t that basically what all parties do?

    Tories and Lib Dem’s offer tax breaks for various economic strata relating to their voting base and labour pump up welfare spending and state sector jobs?
    _
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,808
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    orraloon wrote:
    Following on from the examples of such Con party luminaries as Neil (cash for questions) Hamilton and Jeffrey (dodgy fundraiser and perjurer extraordinaire) Archer, as a 'member' of said Con party like wot gets to vote on the final 2, I offer cash for vote (singular). Whoever bungs me the biggest wad can choose which one I vote for. Can't say fairer than that. Every vote counts. Or summat.

    Isn’t that basically what all parties do?

    Tories and Lib Dem’s offer tax breaks for various economic strata relating to their voting base and labour pump up welfare spending and state sector jobs?
    Now Looney is a paid up Tory party member, he might need to work harder to benefit from the offers :D
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    Third in Peterborough by-election with a loss of 25% off their previous total.
    _
  • bompington
    bompington Posts: 7,674
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Third in Peterborough by-election with a loss of 25% off their previous total.
    Under the circumstances you'd have to say that 25% is really quite a good result.

    Meanwhile, the Brexit candidate shows his class during the winner's speech:
    TELEMMGLPICT000199965058_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqYHaHRqZzVuMJAn8HN8r1s0RpU0s_QgZFe5g2d5Lgw7U.jpeg?imwidth=1240
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    bompington wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Third in Peterborough by-election with a loss of 25% off their previous total.
    Under the circumstances you'd have to say that 25% is really quite a good result.

    Some aggressive spin there. 25% loss is 25% loss.
    _
  • bompington
    bompington Posts: 7,674
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    bompington wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Third in Peterborough by-election with a loss of 25% off their previous total.
    Under the circumstances you'd have to say that 25% is really quite a good result.

    Some aggressive spin there. 25% loss is 25% loss.
    I'm not boosting the Tories here, I've given up on them at least temporarily.

    It's more that at the moment I'm amazed they can find anyone to vote for them :?
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,459
    bompington wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    bompington wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Third in Peterborough by-election with a loss of 25% off their previous total.
    Under the circumstances you'd have to say that 25% is really quite a good result.

    Some aggressive spin there. 25% loss is 25% loss.
    I'm not boosting the Tories here, I've given up on them at least temporarily.

    It's more that at the moment I'm amazed they can find anyone to vote for them :?


    They dropped 25 percentage points of the vote share, from 46% share to 21% share.
    Not 25% of their vote.
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,485
    bompington wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    bompington wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Third in Peterborough by-election with a loss of 25% off their previous total.
    Under the circumstances you'd have to say that 25% is really quite a good result.

    Some aggressive spin there. 25% loss is 25% loss.
    I'm not boosting the Tories here, I've given up on them at least temporarily.

    It's more that at the moment I'm amazed they can find anyone to vote for them :?
    #pisspoorcompetition
    #asbadaseachother
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • timothyw
    timothyw Posts: 2,482
    It's basically exactly what David Cameron was worried about - UKIP or in this case the Brexit party splitting their vote, only I suspect this is worse than in his darkest nightmares.

    Turnout was hugely down on the previous two GEs, just under 34k vs 47 thousand odd, and Labour still managed to win despite going from 22,950 votes to 10,484.

    You can see why so many in the Tory party feel it is brexit or bust at this point.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    TailWindHome wrote:
    bompington wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    bompington wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Third in Peterborough by-election with a loss of 25% off their previous total.
    Under the circumstances you'd have to say that 25% is really quite a good result.

    Some aggressive spin there. 25% loss is 25% loss.
    I'm not boosting the Tories here, I've given up on them at least temporarily.

    It's more that at the moment I'm amazed they can find anyone to vote for them :?


    They dropped 25 percentage points of the vote share, from 46% share to 21% share.
    Not 25% of their vote.

    Quite right.

    Even worse.
    _
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,592
    bompington wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    bompington wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Third in Peterborough by-election with a loss of 25% off their previous total.
    Under the circumstances you'd have to say that 25% is really quite a good result.

    Some aggressive spin there. 25% loss is 25% loss.
    I'm not boosting the Tories here, I've given up on them at least temporarily.

    It's more that at the moment I'm amazed they can find anyone to vote for them :?

    But Labour managed to hold on to the seat despite the previous MP being booted out. Unfortunately a large part of the electorate vote by habit rather than for anything a party does or doesn't do, it's depressing.

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