LEAVE the Conservative Party and save your country!
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Happy one year anniversary of Johnson going to his first coronavirus COBRA meeting.0
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Unlike you to reach for a war analogy, there is hope for you yet.rick_chasey said:So economists see the damage of the pandemic as in the same ballpark as the war on the UK. Nothing else is really coming close.
The response (widely admired at the time and since) from Atlee was to create a social state and build a tonne of houses and massively increase public spending to grow out of the hole Britain found itself in.
Meanwhile we have Sunak wanting to increase taxes all around.
I am not convinced that history will help predict what the recovery will look like. The disgraced former head of the FCA thinks we will have recovered by the end of next year,0 -
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I think the disgraced former head of the FCA is talking Johnsonian levels of shite but without Brexit we would probably be there the year after.rick_chasey said:I feel we're really at odd, SC, about how big the economic damage is.
The unknown for me is that we voluntarily (bear with me) shut down the economy and then kept businesses on life support, this is very different from a standard 10% decrease in GDP when the businesses are not there to spring back.
As we come out of the deepfreeze there are many businesses who will soon be firing on all cylinders, there will also be some who will pull the plug.
I have no idea how companies like IAG think they will ever pay back the £6bn as it will take them decades to make that level of profit.
I still say that Bexit will do far more harm to the UK economy than Covid and that statiscally that will probably be the case by the middle of next year.0 -
The way he keep talking nonsense even when those around him find it awkward beyond belief makes me wonder...
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Really annoyed at the corporate tax raise, and I was critical of the corporate tax cuts 5 years ago.0
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I know this government has a history of releasing info to test the waters but the budget isn't officially released until tomorrow.rick_chasey said:Really annoyed at the corporate tax raise, and I was critical of the corporate tax cuts 5 years ago.
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Something I learned today is that journalists get official briefings of "the Chancellor is expected to say...." because it is illegal to announce the contents before the statement is given in the House.pblakeney said:
I know this government has a history of releasing info to test the waters but the budget isn't officially released until tomorrow.rick_chasey said:Really annoyed at the corporate tax raise, and I was critical of the corporate tax cuts 5 years ago.
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This is so awful. Beyond the fact that the uk is in the biggest economic crisis in 80 years and one in which there is no monetary policy room left so it is all down to fiscal policy and Sunak is spending the days and weeks up to the budget making horrendous videos with school kids.kingstongraham said:The way he keep talking nonsense even when those around him find it awkward beyond belief makes me wonder...
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Is that real as it is really hard to listen to.kingstongraham said:The way he keep talking nonsense even when those around him find it awkward beyond belief makes me wonder...
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Then there's this that the Treasury made. It's a bit like a Channel 5 clip show "Rishi's pandemic".rick_chasey said:
This is so awful. Beyond the fact that the uk is in the biggest economic crisis in 80 years and one in which there is no monetary policy room left so it is all down to fiscal policy and Sunak is spending the days and weeks up to the budget making horrendous videos with school kids.kingstongraham said:The way he keep talking nonsense even when those around him find it awkward beyond belief makes me wonder...
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I do wish these guys took the offices they are given seriously rather than only ever seeing them as a stepping stone to prime minister.
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surely this is a problem peculiar to this chancellor as that accusation could not be levelled at Hammond, Osborne or Darling and even Brown who wanted the top job you could not accuse him of not taking the job seriouslyrick_chasey said:I do wish these guys took the offices they are given seriously rather than only ever seeing them as a stepping stone to prime minister.
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I guess they, to a greater or lesser extent, felt that they had to put in a good performance to be considered for the top job.surrey_commuter said:
surely this is a problem peculiar to this chancellor as that accusation could not be levelled at Hammond, Osborne or Darling and even Brown who wanted the top job you could not accuse him of not taking the job seriouslyrick_chasey said:I do wish these guys took the offices they are given seriously rather than only ever seeing them as a stepping stone to prime minister.
As opposed to using it a licence to promote your own brand (literally) regardless of performance.0 -
I'm surprised how unambitious it is. It's just keeping the support measures going for a while longer and freezing income tax bands.rick_chasey said:Ugh I really really think this budget is a bad idea. I really do.
It's far far too premature.
Don't we need a huge amount more spending on health and care? And everything?0 -
Yeah it reads to me, (and I'm no Martin Wolf), that they're expecting the furlough to have protected enough that when things open up again it'll be gangbusters without much prodding required. I am sceptical.kingstongraham said:
I'm surprised how unambitious it is. It's just keeping the support measures going for a while longer and freezing income tax bands.rick_chasey said:Ugh I really really think this budget is a bad idea. I really do.
It's far far too premature.
Don't we need a huge amount more spending on health and care? And everything?
The OBR forecasts for growth are really grim - very low indeed.0 -
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2021-03-01/too-early-to-raise-taxes-former-boe-governor-king-says-video
Mervyn Kings point of view on the 1st of March.0 -
Do we know if that's Salary or 'take-home' income?rick_chasey said:
In all seriousness this is a problem for the Tories as people who have aspirations to home ownership or are home owners are much more likely to vote tory
If it's salary than I think the tax burden on £20K is relatively lower than in the '90s (personal allowance and all that - although I don't know about NI).
However other costs have gone up as well and either way house prices are nuts vs. income levels - driven the last decade by v low interest rates along with supply issues.
Also there are a lot more single person households now so you would expect relative dilution (accounting for inflation) from the 90s when more HH were dual income (doesn't change the ratio of HH income vs. house price of course).
People are massively more comfortable with debt now than they might have been back then - look at the huge growth in new cars bought on PCP deals.0 -
was he not using OBR for his projection that the economy will have recovered to pre-pandemic levelsby June 2022rick_chasey said:
Yeah it reads to me, (and I'm no Martin Wolf), that they're expecting the furlough to have protected enough that when things open up again it'll be gangbusters without much prodding required. I am sceptical.kingstongraham said:
I'm surprised how unambitious it is. It's just keeping the support measures going for a while longer and freezing income tax bands.rick_chasey said:Ugh I really really think this budget is a bad idea. I really do.
It's far far too premature.
Don't we need a huge amount more spending on health and care? And everything?
The OBR forecasts for growth are really grim - very low indeed.
his forecast for the deficit being lower in 2024 than his budget last year is a masterpiece of optimism
Because of the actions he is taking, he says borrowing will fall to 4.5% of GDP in 2022-23, then to 3.5% in 2023-24, then 2.9 and 2.8% in the following two years.
When this gets picked apart I expect the markets to take a very dim view.0 -
Absolute baller question there from the FT.0 -
Increase inequality in order to persuade poorer voters to vote for even more inequality... run that past me again?
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I've seen that argued before - paying tax gives a stake, even if you get an equivalent increase in benefits so it makes no difference. I'm not sure.briantrumpet said:Increase inequality in order to persuade poorer voters to vote for even more inequality... run that past me again?
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You'd have thought receiving much needed money from the state would give you more of a stake.kingstongraham said:
I've seen that argued before - paying tax gives a stake, even if you get an equivalent increase in benefits so it makes no difference. I'm not sure.briantrumpet said:Increase inequality in order to persuade poorer voters to vote for even more inequality... run that past me again?
But people like Mr Lynn believe the poor are deserving.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eyGND49CBYk 0 -
It was the notion of taxing the poorest that caught my eye... and then coming up with some rationalisation for taking money away from them.0
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It’s nonsense.
Small state is an ideology. It’s preferred by the better off for obvious reasons. Whilst it’s a perfectly legitimate position, trying to get the poor to buy into it is a failure of comprehension.0 -
I think there's an argument for everyone contributing, however minimally, rather than gradually moving to a system where tax is seen as something only the wealthy should pay. Of course other taxes, benefits and related factors like minimum wages would need to be balanced with this.
There's also the argument that raising the thresholds only benefits people who are already earning above those thresholds.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
taxing the poor and giving it back to them in benefits is the opposite of small state which is all for letting people keep as much of their hard earned as possible and letting them chose to spend it on rather than the state taking it off them and spending it for them.morstar said:It’s nonsense.
Small state is an ideology. It’s preferred by the better off for obvious reasons. Whilst it’s a perfectly legitimate position, trying to get the poor to buy into it is a failure of comprehension.
I used to be all for a high tax threshold but for all the reasons put forwards by RJST I have my doubts0
